RESPONSE OF RANDOMIZED SUBSETS OF RAINFALL GAUGES OVER A PARANÁ RIVER SUB-BASIN

RESPONSE OF RANDOMIZED SUBSETS OF RAINFALL GAUGES OVER A PARANÁ RIVER SUB-BASIN Thais Fujita, A. P. Rudke, M. V. B. de Morais, S. A. A. Rafee, R. A. F. de Souza, R. V. A. de Souza, E. D. de Freitas, L. D. Martins, Jorge Alberto Martins. 2017 International SWAT Conference in Warsaw, Poland

SOUTH AMERICA AMAZON RIVER BASIN DRAINAGE AREA: 7,050,000 km² (~39.51%); LENGTH: 6,992 km. LA PLATA RIVER BASIN DRAINAGE AREA: 3,170,000 km² (~17.76%); LENGTH: 4,500 km TOTAL = 57.27%

LA PLATA RIVER BASIN DRAINAGE AREA: 3,170,000 km²

LA PLATA RIVER BASIN DRAINAGE AREA: 3,170,000 km² BRAZIL (45.7%); ARGENTINA (29.7%); PARAGUAY (13.2%); BOLIVIA (6.6%); URUGUAY (4.8%).

LA PLATA RIVER BASIN DRAINAGE AREA: 3,170,000 km² BRAZIL (45.7%); ARGENTINA (29.7%); PARAGUAY (13.2%); BOLIVIA (6.6%); URUGUAY (4.8%). WATER DISCHARGE: 28,000 m³/s PARANÁ RIVER (3,780 km); PARAGUAY RIVER (2,620 km); URUGUAY RIVER (1,600 km).

LA PLATA RIVER BASIN DRAINAGE AREA: 3,170,000 km² BRAZIL (45.7%); ARGENTINA (29.7%); PARAGUAY (13.2%); BOLIVIA (6.6%); URUGUAY (4.8%). WATER DISCHARGE: 28,000 m³/s PARANÁ RIVER (3,780 km); PARAGUAY RIVER (2,620 km); URUGUAY RIVER (1,600 km).

HIDROGRAFIC REGION OF PARANÁ RIVER TRIPLE FRONTIER BRAZIL/PARAGUAY/ARGENTINA PARANÁ/IGUAÇU CONVERGENCE DRAINAGE AREA: 879,860 km² 59% PARANÁ RIVER BASIN; 29% LA PLATA RIVER BASIN. WATER DISCHARGE: 14,000 m³/s 81% PARANÁ RIVER; 50% LA PLATA RIVER.

HIDROGRAFIC REGION OF PARANÁ RIVER FEDERATIVE UNITS SÃO PAULO (24,1%); PARANÁ (20,9%); MATO GROSSO DO SUL (19,3%); MINAS GERAIS (18%); GOIÁS (16,1% ); SANTA CATARINA (1,2%); DISTRITO FEDERAL (0,4%).

HIDROGRAFIC REGION OF PARANÁ RIVER FEDERATIVE UNITS SÃO PAULO (24,1%); PARANÁ (20,9%); MATO GROSSO DO SUL (19,3%); MINAS GERAIS (18%); GOIÁS (16,1% ); SANTA CATARINA (1,2%); DISTRITO FEDERAL (0,4%). POPULATION: 65 MILLION (32%) SÃO PAULO; BRASÍLIA; GOIANIA; CAMPO GRANDE; CURITIBA.

IMPORTANCE OF HIDROGRAFIC REGION OF PARANÁ RIVER APTITUDE IN HYDROELETRIC ENERGY GENERATION

IMPORTANCE OF HIDROGRAFIC REGION OF PARANÁ RIVER APTITUDE IN HYDROELETRIC ENERGY GENERATION ITAIPU - 14,000 MW; (20%)

IMPORTANCE OF HIDROGRAFIC REGION OF PARANÁ RIVER APTITUDE IN HYDROELETRIC ENERGY GENERATION ITAIPU - 14,000 MW; (20%) ILHA SOLTEIRA - 3,444 MW;

IMPORTANCE OF HIDROGRAFIC REGION OF PARANÁ RIVER APTITUDE IN HYDROELETRIC ENERGY GENERATION ITAIPU - 14,000 MW; (20%) ILHA SOLTEIRA - 3,444 MW; FOZ DO AREIA 2,500 MW;

IMPORTANCE OF HIDROGRAFIC REGION OF PARANÁ RIVER APTITUDE IN HYDROELETRIC ENERGY GENERATION ITAIPU - 14,000 MW; (20%) ILHA SOLTEIRA - 3,444 MW; FOZ DO AREIA 2,500 MW; ITUMBIARA - 2,082 MW;

IMPORTANCE OF HIDROGRAFIC REGION OF PARANÁ RIVER APTITUDE IN HYDROELETRIC ENERGY GENERATION ITAIPU - 14,000 MW; (20%) ILHA SOLTEIRA - 3,444 MW; FOZ DO AREIA 2,500 MW; ITUMBIARA - 2,082 MW; JUPIÁ 1,551 MW;

IMPORTANCE OF HIDROGRAFIC REGION OF PARANÁ RIVER APTITUDE IN HYDROELETRIC ENERGY GENERATION ITAIPU - 14,000 MW; (20%) ILHA SOLTEIRA - 3,444 MW; FOZ DO AREIA 2,500 MW; ITUMBIARA - 2,082 MW; JUPIÁ 1,551 MW; PORTO PRIMAVERA 1,540 MW.

ILHA SOLTEIRA 1,195 km² BARRETO CANAL JUPIÁ 330 km²

IMPORTANCE OF HIDROGRAFIC REGION OF PARANÁ RIVER APTITUDE IN HYDROELETRIC ENERGY GENERATION ITAIPU - 14,000 MW; ILHA SOLTEIRA - 3,444 MW; FOZ DO AREIA 2,500 MW; ITUMBIARA - 2,082 MW; JUPIÁ 1,551 MW; PORTO PIRMAVERA 1,540 MW. NATIONAL PRODUCTION vs. NATIONAL CONSUMPTION 75% vs. 30%

IMPORTANCE OF HIDROGRAFIC REGION OF PARANÁ RIVER APTITUDE IN HYDROELETRIC ENERGY GENERATION SUITABLE AREAS FOR SUGAR CANE PLANTATION

IMPORTANCE OF HIDROGRAFIC REGION OF PARANÁ RIVER APTITUDE IN HYDROELETRIC ENERGY GENERATION SUITABLE AREAS FOR SUGAR CANE PLANTATION FERTILE SOIL

IMPORTANCE OF HIDROGRAFIC REGION OF PARANÁ RIVER APTITUDE IN HYDROELETRIC ENERGY GENERATION SUITABLE AREAS FOR SUGAR CANE PLANTATION FERTILE SOIL/FLAT GROUND

IMPORTANCE OF HIDROGRAFIC REGION OF PARANÁ RIVER APTITUDE IN HYDROELETRIC ENERGY GENERATION SUITABLE AREAS FOR SUGAR CANE PLANTATION FERTILE SOIL/FLAT GROUND BIOMASS

IMPORTANCE OF HIDROGRAFIC REGION OF PARANÁ RIVER APTITUDE IN HYDROELETRIC ENERGY GENERATION SUITABLE AREAS FOR SUGAR CANE PLANTATION FERTILE SOIL/FLAT LAND BIOMASS 50% ETHANOL (LIGHT FLEET FUEL); 8% ELETRICITY (SUGAR CANE BURNOUT)

IMPORTANCE OF HIDROGRAFIC REGION OF PARANÁ RIVER APTITUDE IN HYDROELETRIC ENERGY GENERATION SUITABLE AREAS FOR SUGAR CANE PLANTATION WATER WITHDRAWAL

IMPORTANCE OF HIDROGRAFIC REGION OF PARANÁ RIVER APTITUDE IN HYDROELETRIC ENERGY GENERATION SUITABLE AREAS FOR SUGAR CANE PLANTATION WATER WITHDRAWAL 54% IRRIGATION; 23% MUNICIPALITIES; 17% INDUSTRY; 6% LIVESTOCK.

MANAGEMENT TOOLS FOR PARANÁ RIVER BASIN HYDROLOGICAL MODELS; CLIMATE MODELS;

MANAGEMENT TOOLS FOR PARANÁ RIVER BASIN HYDROLOGICAL MODELS; CLIMATE MODELS; AVAILABILITY OF DATA

MANAGEMENT TOOLS FOR PARANÁ RIVER BASIN HYDROLOGICAL MODELS; CLIMATE MODELS; AVAILABILITY OF DATA PRECIPITATION

GAPS AND QUESTIONS OF PARANÁ RIVER BASIN NATIONAL INVENTORY DATABASE

GAPS AND QUESTIONS OF PARANÁ RIVER BASIN NATIONAL INVENTORY DATABASE RAINFALL GAUGES

GAPS AND QUESTIONS OF PARANÁ RIVER BASIN NATIONAL INVENTORY DATABASE RAINFALL GAUGES NON-HOMOGENEOUS SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION;

GAPS AND QUESTIONS OF PARANÁ RIVER BASIN NATIONAL INVENTORY DATABASE RAINFALL GAUGES NON-HOMOGENEOUS SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION; LACK OF LONG TIME SERIES; AVALIABLE DATA YEARS 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1 161 321 481 641 801 961 1121 1281 1441 1601 1761 1921 2081 2241 2401 2561 2721 2881 3041 3201 3361 3521 3681 3841 4001 4161 4321 4481 4641 4801 4961 5121 5281 5441 5601 5761 5921 6081 6241 6401 6561 6721 6881 7041 7201 7361 7521 7681 7841 NUMBER OS PRECIPITATION GAUGES

GAPS AND QUESTIONS OF PARANÁ RIVER BASIN NATIONAL INVENTORY DATABASE RAINFALL GAUGES NON-HOMOGENEOUS SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION; LACK OF LONG TIME SERIES; AVALIABLE DATA YEARS 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1 161 321 481 641 801 961 1121 1281 1441 1601 1761 1921 2081 2241 2401 2561 2721 2881 3041 3201 3361 3521 3681 3841 4001 4161 4321 4481 4641 4801 4961 5121 5281 5441 5601 5761 5921 6081 6241 6401 6561 6721 6881 7041 7201 7361 7521 7681 7841 NUMBER OS PRECIPITATION GAUGES

GAPS AND QUESTIONS OF PARANÁ RIVER BASIN NATIONAL INVENTORY DATABASE RAINFALL GAUGES NON-HOMOGENEOUS SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION; LACK OF LONG TIME SERIES; DISCONTINUTIES.

GAPS AND QUESTIONS OF PARANÁ RIVER BASIN NATIONAL INVENTORY DATABASE RAINFALL GAUGES NON-HOMOGENEOUS SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION; LACK OF LONG TIME SERIES; DISCONTINUTIES.

GAPS AND QUESTIONS OF PARANÁ RIVER BASIN NATIONAL INVENTORY DATABASE RAINFALL GAUGES NON-HOMOGENEOUS SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION; LACK OF LONG TIME SERIES; DISCONTINUTIES. WHAT IS THE OPTIMAL RAIN GAUGE DENSITY?

GAPS AND QUESTIONS OF PARANÁ RIVER BASIN NATIONAL INVENTORY DATABASE RAINFALL GAUGES NON-HOMOGENEOUS SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION; LACK OF LONG TIME SERIES; DISCONTINUTIES. WHAT IS THE OPTIMAL RAIN GAUGE DENSITY?

IVAÍ RIVER BASIN DRAINAGE AREA: 36,587 km²; LENGTH: 680 km; WATER DISCHARGE: 702.3 m³/s; POPULATION: ~1,400,000; 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 ALTIMETRIC PROFILE: 5 20 35 50 65 80 95 110 125 140 155 170 185 200 215 230 245 260 275 290 305 320 335 350 365 380 395 410 425 440 455 470 485 500 515 530 545 560 575 590 605 620 635 650 665

IVAÍ RIVER BASIN S RAIN GAUGE NETWORK AVAILABLE NETWORK: 175 RAIN GAUGES;

IVAÍ RIVER BASIN S RAIN GAUGE NETWORK AVAILABLE NETWORK: 175 RAIN GAUGES; OPTIMAL READING PERIOD: 1976 1992; 140000 120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

IVAÍ RIVER BASIN S RAIN GAUGE NETWORK AVAILABLE NETWORK: 175 RAIN GAUGES; OPTIMAL READING PERIOD: 1976 1992; SWAT: 1979 1992; WARM UP: 3 YEARS; SIMULATION: 1982 1992.

RANDOMIZED NETWORK SCENARIOS 12 DENSITY SCENARIOS;

RANDOMIZED NETWORK SCENARIOS 12 DENSITY SCENARIOS; RANDOMIZED GAUGE ARRANGEMENT: 100

RANDOMIZED NETWORK SCENARIOS 12 DENSITY SCENARIOS; RANDOMIZED GAUGE ARRANGEMENT: 100 90

RANDOMIZED NETWORK SCENARIOS 12 DENSITY SCENARIOS; RANDOMIZED GAUGE ARRANGEMENT: 100 90 80

RANDOMIZED NETWORK SCENARIOS 12 DENSITY SCENARIOS; RANDOMIZED GAUGE ARRANGEMENT: 100 90 80 70

RANDOMIZED NETWORK SCENARIOS 12 DENSITY SCENARIOS; RANDOMIZED GAUGE ARRANGEMENT: 100 90 80 70 60

RANDOMIZED NETWORK SCENARIOS 12 DENSITY SCENARIOS; RANDOMIZED GAUGE ARRANGEMENT: 100 90 80 70 60 50

RANDOMIZED NETWORK SCENARIOS 12 DENSITY SCENARIOS; RANDOMIZED GAUGE ARRANGEMENT: 100 90 80 70 60 50 40

RANDOMIZED NETWORK SCENARIOS 12 DENSITY SCENARIOS; RANDOMIZED GAUGE ARRANGEMENT: 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30

RANDOMIZED NETWORK SCENARIOS 12 DENSITY SCENARIOS; RANDOMIZED GAUGE ARRANGEMENT: 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20

RANDOMIZED NETWORK SCENARIOS 12 DENSITY SCENARIOS; RANDOMIZED GAUGE ARRANGEMENT: 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10

RANDOMIZED NETWORK SCENARIOS 12 DENSITY SCENARIOS; RANDOMIZED GAUGE ARRANGEMENT: 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 5

RANDOMIZED NETWORK SCENARIOS 12 DENSITY SCENARIOS; RANDOMIZED GAUGE ARRANGEMENT: 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 5 1

RANDOMIZED NETWORK SCENARIOS 12 DENSITY SCENARIOS; RANDOMIZED GAUGE ARRANGEMENT: 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 5 1 175 STATIONS

RANDOMIZED NETWORK SCENARIOS 12 DENSITY SCENARIOS; RANDOMIZED GAUGE ARRANGEMENT: 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 5 1 PERFORMACE COMPARISON WITH BASE SCENARIO. 175 STATIONS

RANDOMIZED NETWORK SCENARIOS 12 DENSITY SCENARIOS; RANDOMIZED GAUGE ARRANGEMENT: 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 5 1 PERFORMACE COMPARISON WITH BASE SCENARIO. Streamflow [m³/s] 20000 18000 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Rainfall [mm/day]

RANDOMIZED NETWORK SCENARIOS PEARSON CORRELATION WITH THE BASE SCENARIO HIGH SIMILARITIES STREAMFLOW PREDICTIONS OBTAINED WITH DECREADING NUMBER OF STATIONS IN THE ARRENGEMENTS

RANDOMIZED NETWORK SCENARIOS PEARSON CORRELATION WITH THE BASE SCENARIO LINEAR BEHAVIOR STREAMFLOW PREDICTIONS OBTAINED WITH DECREADING NUMBER OF STATIONS IN THE ARRENGEMENTS

RANDOMIZED NETWORK SCENARIOS PEARSON CORRELATION WITH THE BASE SCENARIO LINEAR BEHAVIOR SEVERELY REDUCED BEHAVIOR STREAMFLOW PREDICTIONS OBTAINED WITH DECREADING NUMBER OF STATIONS IN THE ARRENGEMENTS

RANDOMIZED NETWORK SCENARIOS 1,219 km²/gauge 0.820 GAUGE/1000km² SUFFICIENT TO REPRESENT PRECIPITATION DISTRIBUTION STREAMFLOW PREDICTIONS OBTAINED WITH DECREADING NUMBER OF STATIONS IN THE ARRENGEMENTS

209 km²/gauge 4.784 GAUGE/1000km² RANDOMIZED NETWORK SCENARIOS 36,587 km²/gauge 0.027 GAUGE/1000km² 365 km²/gauge 2.739 GAUGE/1000km² 1,219 km²/gauge 0.820 GAUGE/1000km² STREAMFLOW PREDICTIONS OBTAINED WITH DECREADING NUMBER OF STATIONS IN THE ARRENGEMENTS

RANDOMIZED NETWORK SCENARIOS PRELIMINARY APPROACH FOR THE IVAÍ CATCHMENT 209 km²/gauge 4.784 GAUGE/1000km² 36,587 km²/gauge 0.027 GAUGE/1000km² 365 km²/gauge 2.739 GAUGE/1000km² 1,219 km²/gauge 0.820 GAUGE/1000km² STREAMFLOW PREDICTIONS OBTAINED WITH DECREADING NUMBER OF STATIONS IN THE ARRENGEMENTS

RANDOMIZED NETWORK SCENARIOS NEXT STEPS: MODEL CALIBRATION/VALIDATION; REMAKE ALL THE RESULTS; APPLY TO OTHER PARANÁ RIVER WATERSHEDS; COMPARE THEIR BEHAVIOUR; TRANSLATE THIS INFORMATION FOR WATER RESOURCES MANAGERS. STRATEGICALLY IMPORTANT BASIN: ENERGY AND ECONOMY; NATIONAL SECURITY.

THANK YOU! [1] PAST LULC CHANGES AND THE IMPACT ON HYDROLOGY DETECTION OF THE ROLE IN CLIMATE CHANGE AND LAND USE AND LAND COVER CONDITIONS IN THE PARANA RIVER BASIN HYDROLOGY [2] POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS [3] EFFECTS OF LARGE-SCALE CLIMATE VARIABILITY 1 Federal University of Technology Paraná, PR, Brazil 2 University of São Paulo, SP, Brazil fujita.thais@gmail.com 3 State University of Amazonas, AM, Brazil