Baseline results of the 5 th Wild Dog & 3 rd Cheetah Photographic Census of Greater Kruger National Park H. T. Davies-Mostert 1, M. Burger 1, M.G.L. Mills 2, M. Somers 3, M. Hofmeyr 4 & S. Ferreira 5 1 Carnivore Conservation Group, Endangered Wildlife Trust, Johannesburg 2 Tony & LisetteLewis Foundation, KgalagadiCheetah Project 3 Centre for Wildlife Management, University of Pretoria 4 Veterinary Wildlife Services, South African National Parks 5 Scientific Services, South African National Parks Grant Beverley, RoxBrummer, Wendy Collinson, Kelly Marnewick, Christine Mentzel, Mariana Venter
Regional Conservation Context Wild dogs listed as Endangered and cheetahs as Vulnerable on IUCN Red Data List Cheetahs are listed on CITES I; trade also thought to compromise wild populations of wild dogs Regional strategic planning workshop in Jwaneng(IUCN, 2007). List of strategic objectives: capacity development, knowledge and information, information transfer, coexistence, land use, political commitment, policy & legislation Regional maps
Cheetahs SOURCE: IUCN/SSC (2007). Regional Conservation Strategy for the Cheetah and African Wild Dog in Southern Africa. IUCN Species Survival Commission: Gland. Switzerland
Wild dogs SOURCE: IUCN/SSC (2007). Regional Conservation Strategy for the Cheetah and African Wild Dog in Southern Africa. IUCN Species Survival Commission: Gland. Switzerland
National Conservation Context Wild dogs: ~370 individuals (Lindsey & Davies-Mostert, in prep.) KNP and surrounds contains largest contiguous protected population in SA Cheetahs: ~700-900 individuals (various sources) Farmlands might be a sink for larger populations and the rest of the sub-region (Lindsey et al. 2009) Both species listed on TOPS National Conservation Action Plan 2009 BMP-S...2010?
SANParksContext Priority species Threatened Biota Objective aims to: Prevent extinction within the Kruger Park of any species on the IUCN s global critically endangered or endangered lists Work with other conservation initiatives to secure and strengthen the future of such species over their historic distribution ranges http://celtis.sanparks.org/parks/kruger/conservation/scientific/mission/tpc_threatened_biota.pdf Conservation plans for rare and threatened species: KNP is the only NP with resident wild dog population (Kgalakgadi = transient groups) Cheetahs represented in NP network but most populations are small and unlikely to be viable Top-order predators contribute to functional diversity of ecosystems
Population Studies Wild dogs SANParks/ EWT census at 5-year intervals 1989, 1995, 2000, 2005 Standardised minimum count method (Maddock& Mills 1994) Longitudinal study in southern KNP 1989-2004 (Creel et al. 2004) Cheetahs Pienaar 1969 Bowland 1990/1991 Kemp & Mills 2005 (wild dog ANDcheetah) Census 2009 Pushed forward 1 year
The Photographic Method Left or right sides Other identifiable body parts
Public Participation 8-16 months 1 January
Study Areas Northern District North of Olifants River 11,102 km 2 Central District Between Sabie& Olifants Rivers 6,192 km 2 * incorporating private reserves on western boundary Southern District Between Crocodile & Sabie Rivers 4,057 km 2
Advantages Useful for species that are identifiable and visible (e.g. diurnal, pack living, etc.) Data are available across vast areas in short period Used since 1989 temporal comparisons Generates public awareness of conservation issues Promotes sense of participation / stewardship among general public
Minimum Counts
By Region: Wild Dogs South Central North Total MPS 1989 Individuals 84 115 158 357 13.7 Packs 7 5 14 26 1995 Individuals 157 27 250 434 12.1 Packs 12 5 19 36 2000 Individuals 77 69 31 177 7.1 Packs 12 10 3 25 2005 Individuals 45 22 53 120 8.0 Packs 8 2 5 15 2009 Individuals 68 52 11 131 6.9 Packs 10 5 4 19
By Region: Wild Dogs
Number of Entries 1995 1989 2005 2000 2009
By Region: Cheetahs South Central North Total 2005 Males 4 4 7 15 Females 6 8 2 16 Cubs 19 25 2 46 Unsexed 5 17 3 25 TOTAL 34 54 14 102 2009 Males 33 17 4 54 Females 16 13 2 31 Cubs 41 23 3 67 Unsexed 2 16 2 20 TOTAL 92 69 11 172 NOTE: Many animals seen only once
Disadvantages Unquantifiable search effort E.g. Number of visitors, penetration of road network, etc. Reliance on non-expert reports (inaccuracy) Element of trust Administratively onerous Database management, PR, etc. No confidence intervals around estimates Confounded by inconsistent photo capture Problem for all photographic methods
Risks of error H 0 : Animal has been identified previously H 1 : Animal has not been identified Type I Overestimation of population size Type II Underestimation of population size
Statistical Methods Rarefaction (Krebs 1999) Variance and SD on cumulative curves Capture-recapture Open model Detection: Capture probability (p) Survival probability (ɸ) HETEROGENOUS
Sources of heterogeneity Category Covariate Type Survey effort Location (Region: N, C, S) Tourism season (Peak / Off-peak) PR interventions (Katie & Wayne) Biological Detection Age (denningpacks, females with cubs, etc) Group size Group ID (exposure to road network: location of range, scent marking posts, den sites, etc) Habitat density Individual Time Time Individual & time Individual Individual Individual & time Currently developing appropriate models for each species WATCH THIS SPACE
Implications & Recommendations Baseline (minimum count) data suggest that both wild dog cheetahs numbers have been low for past 10 years Genetic studies suggest bottleneck (J. Edwards, submitted MSc) Possible causes: Rainfall: 1995 = unusual peak? (Buettner et al. 2006 J. Zool272: 10-19) Disease? (Ginsberg et al. 1995 Proc R Soc Lond B262: 221-228) Increased edge effects? (Woodroffe& Ginsberg 1998 Science 280: 2126-2128) Alleeeffects in combination with others? Others...?
Implications & Recommendations Continued longitudinal studies Comparative studies in North / South Demography Spatial ecology, intraguild interactions, etc Disease surveys Connectivity to regional population networks Gene flow Western Boundary Project Historical sighting and photographic records Threat analysis (attitudes, land-use, road network, etc.) KNP as source? Manage SA populations as one unit?
Thank you! All contributors to the photographic census Grant Beverley, Rox Brummer, Wendy Collinson Kelly Marnewick, Christine Mentzel, Mariana Venter