OUTLOOK WATERLOO A CONTEXT ON BUSINESS, CULTURE, LIFESTYLE AND RESIDENTIAL Waterloo is a growing residential market, boasting high amenity that is well located to a number of major employment centres. A B C D E F G MARCH 2016 STRATEGIC LOCATION Close proximity to the Sydney CBD and accessibility to several major centres. INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT Over $23 billion in infrastructure investment in the region including the proposed Sydney Metro City Rail Network and Green Square Town Centre. EMPLOYMENT GROWTH Up to 146,800 in surrounding employment centres by 2041. POPULATION GROWTH Projected growth of over 17,700 residents over the next 15 years. DEMOGRAPHICS Waterloo is attracting a young, professional and affluent population. SALES PRICE GROWTH Median apartment price growth of 7.7% per annum in the past five years. RENTAL GROWTH Median two bedroom unit rental growth of 5.5% per annum in the last decade. WATERLOO IS LOCATED WITHIN WALKING DISTANCE OF MOORE PARK AND CENTENNIAL PARK RESIDENTS ARE WELL SERVICED BY A RANGE OF CAFES AND RESTAURANTS WATERLOO IS LOCATED IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE CBD Waterloo is experiencing all three of the Urbis Economics and Market Research residential market fundamentals that support a sustainable region Population, Infrastructure and Employment.
LOCATION & ACCESSIBILITY Waterloo 29 2.1km NORTH CBD 8 CBD 7 40 36 39 14 15 21 18 19 6 2.6km 29 37 2 11 25 SOUTH DOWLING STREET 30 1.5km 16 20 41 2.6km 3.0km 1.7km BOURKE STREET 3 9 1.5km 23 0.7km 10 2.4km 24 1.3km 38 3.1km 28 1.9km 27 2.7km 4 2.2km 43 1.1km 42 5.5km 34 0.5km Waterloo is located 3km south of the Sydney CBD and strategically located in proximity to major universities, open space and amenity. 2 URBIS WATERLOO MARKET OUTLOOK Waterloo is located approximately 3 km south of the Sydney CBD. The area has undergone significant urban renewal and is now creating new vibrant communities and amenities. Waterloo is in close proximity to a number of leading schools and globally recognised universities such as the University of Sydney and the University of New South Wales (ranked 2nd and 4th in the 2015 Excellence in Research for Australia Rankings respectively), which affords residents with access to high quality education. A number of hospitals such as St Vincent s Hospital and Royal Prince Alfred Hospital provide a large range of health facilities to a local and regional catchment.
MAP KEY 1. East Village Shopping Centre Retail And Entertainment 2. Surry Hills Shopping Village 3. Danks Street Shopping Plaza 4. Alexandria Homemaker Centre 5. Moore Park Entertainment Quarter 6. Broadway Shopping Centre 7. Westfield Sydney 8. The Star Casino 9. Alexandria Park Community School 10. Erskineville Public School 11. Bourke Street Public School 12. Sydney Boys High School 13. Sydney Girls High School 12 13 33 32 5 Education 14. Sydney Grammar School 15. SCEGGS Darlinghurst 16. The University of Sydney 17. The University of New South Wales 18. University of Technology, Sydney 19. Sydney TAFE Ultimo College ANZAC PARADE 20. Royal Prince Alfred Hospital 35 2.0km 31 Health 21. St Vincent s Private Hospital 22. Prince of Wales Hospital 23. Waterloo Park 24. Alexandria Park 25. Redfern Park 26. Joynton Park 27. Sydney Park 28. Erskineville Oval 29. Prince Alfred Park 1 44 34 0.5km 8.4km 1.8km 2.6km 3.1km 17 22 Parks and Recreation 30. Vice Chancellors Oval 31. Centennial Park 32. Sydney Cricket Ground 33. Allianz Stadium 34. The Australian Golf Club 35. Moore Park Golf Course 36. The Royal Botanic Garden Sydney and Domain Waterloo is well located to vibrant cultural and dining precincts such as Surry Hills and Newtown, which provide residents with high quality food and entertainment amenity. Green Square train station provides residents with direct access to the Sydney CBD and Sydney Airport as well as the Southern Sydney region. The proposed Waterloo Train Station represents major Government investment and will further improve public transport accessibility including direct access to several stations in the heart of the Sydney CBD such as Barangaroo and Martin Place. Other Dining Precincts 37. Surry Hills 38. Newtown 39. Darling Harbour 40. Circular Quay 41. Australian Technology Park 42. Sydney Airport 43. Green Square 44. Port Botany NB: DISTANCES ARE POINT-TO-POINT URBIS WATERLOO MARKET OUTLOOK 3
INFRASTRUCTURE & EMPLOYMENT Over $23 billion in infrastructure investment to benefit Waterloo and the surrounding area. INFRASTRUCTURE Waterloo and the surrounding area will benefit from significant infrastructure investment over the next decade. This will improve the amenity for local residents as well as create more employment opportunities for prospective residents. Major projects include: Sydney Metro City Rail Network 2024 $8.3 BILLION The Sydney Metro City Rail Network will extend metro rail between Chatswood and Bankstown through the Sydney CBD, connecting with the new North West Rail Link. The project will include a proposed station at Waterloo, and will significantly improve the area s connectivity to Central as well as proposed Sydney CBD train stations at Pitt Street, Martin Place and Barangaroo. Green Square Community Precinct 2019 $73 MILLION A community project for Green Square comprising of a 7,000 sq.m aquatic centre and Gunyama Park, a new multipurpose sports field with a fitness centre and a children s playground. University of Sydney and UTS City Campus Redevelopment Programs 2020 $3.5 BILLION Master Plan redevelopment of the University of Sydney Camperdown / Darlington campus and UTS City Campus will contribute to the creation of an active student precinct and highlight Sydney s role as a leading education provider. The development of research and technology hubs is expected to create global partnerships and attract innovative companies to the region. Australian Technology Park Redevelopment 2020 $1 BILLION Revitalisation of the existing technology park through the development of 93,000 sq.m of new office space with the Commonwealth Bank of Australia as a major tenant. The addition of approximately 3,000 sq.m of retail floorspace and public amenity such as a gym, childcare centre and multipurpose community space will contribute to an active worker s precinct. Green Square Town Centre Development 2025 $540 MILLION Green Square Town Centre will be a major residential, retail and cultural hub consisting of 30,500 new dwellings, 12,000 sq.m of retail floor space, and community facilities. The City of Sydney Council has committed $540 million over the next 10 years for community infrastructure. Central to Eveleigh Urban Renewal Program 2037 $10 BILLION A 20 to 30 year project that aims to transform underutilised land in and around the rail corridor from Central to Macdonaldtown and Erskineville stations. Additional residential, retail and commercial floorspace will extend towards the Australian Technology Park, which will contribute to the areas rapid development. PROXIMITY TO GROWING EMPLOYMENT CENTRES Up to 146,800 within surrounding employment centres by 2041 Waterloo is located in close proximity to a number of major employment centres. Strong transport linkages provided by Green Square train station and bus services afford residents with good access to major employment centres such as the Sydney CBD, North Sydney CBD and Sydney Airport. The Australian Technology Park in Redfern is within walking distance of Waterloo and is expected to generate significant employment opportunities for local residents. The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBD) is relocating over 10,000 employees to the precinct, with the investment anticipated to benefit the local residential market. Further investment in the Sydney Metro City Rail Network, comprising a new train station at Waterloo directly adjacent to Botany Road, will also increase accessibility to the Sydney CBD and North Sydney. This will include direct access (four stops) to Barangaroo, which represents the biggest office development precinct in Sydney. Employment growth is an important driver of residential demand with workers looking to live in close proximity to where they work. Forecast employment growth in nearby employment centres has the potential to drive demand from new workers. Source: NSW Bureau of Transport Statistics 2014 REDFERN / CENTRAL 10,000 RANDWICK EDUCATION AND HEALTH PRECINCT 6,600 AIRPORT 8,900 NEW JOBS BY 2041 Employment growth within the surrounding centres NORTH 12,500 CBD 105,200 PORT BOTANY 3,600 4 URBIS WATERLOO MARKET OUTLOOK
The Study Area is projected to grow by 17,700 new residents by 2031. POPULATION & DEMOGRAPHICS For the purpose of this profile, a study area has been defined for the assessment of population growth, demographic characteristics and the property market. The Study Area has been defined to include the adjacent suburbs of Waterloo and Zetland, which are recognised as a relatively newer residential market undergoing significant high density development. The Study Area has recorded strong population growth of 5.3% per annum between 2006 to 2014. Based on data from the NSW Department of Planning and Environment, the population of the Study Area is forecast to increase by more than 17,700 people between 2015 and 2031. The forecast growth equates to an average of 1,104 new residents per year at a growth rate of 3.9% per annum, and is expected to grow faster than Sydney (1.5% per annum). The Study Area s high population growth aligns with the expected completion of new residential apartment projects during this period. STUDY AREA POPULATION GROWTH POPULATION The Study Area recorded a high proportion of Generation Y residents in 2011, equating to 48% of residents. This was well above the Metropolitan Sydney average of 29% and reflects the employment opportunities and amenity offered by the location. Conversely, the Study Area recorded a relatively lower proportion of Baby Boomer residents, accounting for 16% of residents. MEDIAN INCOME ($) 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 - $50,000 $45,000 $40,000 $35,000 $30,000 $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $0 ACTUAL POPULATION AVERAGE PER CAPITA INCOME STUDY AREA $16,880 Source: ABS Census 2011 ; Urbis $24,149 $33,719 1,104 NEW RESIDENTS PER YEAR 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 Source: ABS 2014 ; Department of Planning & Environment 2014 ; Urbis $29,266 $45,383 2001 2006 2011 PRE LARGE SCALE REDEVELOPMENT POST LARGE SCALE REDEVELOPMENT $36,285 WHO LIVES IN THE WATERLOO STUDY AREA? Source: ABS Census 2011; Urbis WATERLOO Average Age of Residents 37 years 37 years Born Overseas 56% 36% Born in China 11% 4% Couple Family with No Children 50% 33% Average Household Size 1.9 2.7 Employed in White Collar Jobs 86% 74% Bachelor Degree or Higher 31% 24% Renters 70% 32% Average per Capita Income $45,383 $36,285 The Study Area has a significant white collar labour force, comprising 86% of employed residents, which is well above the Sydney average (74%). This includes a high proportion of managers and professionals, accounting for 52% of workers. This reflects the number of major employment centres located in close proximity to the Study Area. This is supported by a high proportion of residents in the Study Area that have a tertiary qualification with 31% having a bachelor degree or higher. The relocation of 10,000 CBA employees to the Australian Technology Park in the adjacent suburb of Redfern has the potential to increase the resident professional labour force. The Study Area is very multicultural with over half of residents born overseas. This is above the Sydney average and includes 11% of residents from China. The average household size of 1.9 persons per household in the Study Area is much lower than the Sydney average (2.7), and is indicative of the high proportion of couple familiies with no children (55%) living in the area and a higher proportion of smaller apartments. The Study Area s well-educated and professional workforce is reflected by an average per capita income of $45,383, which is 25% above the Sydney average. Recent large scale redevelopment of the Study Area has attracted an increasingly affluent white collar resident population, which represents a key demand driver for housing. URBIS WATERLOO MARKET OUTLOOK 5
RESIDENTIAL MARKET Waterloo is an emerging residential market, strategically located adjacent to the Sydney CBD. OVERVIEW Sydney is Australia s Global City and is internationally recognised as an important financial and economic hub. Over 40% of Australia s top 500 companies have their head office in New South Wales with over 90% of international banks, 60% of information and communications technology companies and 50% of professional service firms headquartered in Sydney. This supports an affluent population with average incomes 5% above Melbourne and 2% above Brisbane (ABS Census 2011). According to APM Pricefinder, Sydney has recorded average annual apartment price growth of 6.5% over the past five years. This has been well above both the Melbourne (1.1%) and Brisbane (0.4%) averages. Sydney offers its residents with excellent economic and lifestyle opportunities, making it one of the most liveable cities in the world (10th in the world and 1st in Australia according to the Mercer 2015 Quality of Living Survey). Sydney Harbour, world renowned beaches and open space provide excellent amenity to residents. Sydney is a leading education provider, and is home to a number of globally recognised universities such as the University of Sydney and the University of New South Wales. These institutions attract students from throughout the world. The trend towards higher density living in Sydney is continuing to grow as residents seek opportunities to locate in close proximity to the city s wide range of amenity and enjoy its unique lifestyle. In particular, inner ring areas such as Waterloo are undergoing significant development, and apartment buyers are looking to capitalise on this new infrastructure and amenity. STUDY AREA APARTMENT MARKET During 2015, the Study Area recorded a median apartment price of $840,000 based on 787 settled transactions (excluding recent off-the-plan sales that have not settled). This represents a peak based on historic prices over the past 15 years. Apartment product within the Study Area has historically shown consistent price growth recording a 10 year median price increase of 6.9% per annum. The increase in the median apartment price over the last five years has been above average growth recorded in Sydney. The locational attributes of the Study Area has generated significant interest from developers to develop new apartment buildings. Data compiled by Cordell Connect as of February 2016 indicates that there are an estimated 9,950 apartments proposed to be completed in the Study Area over the next six years. Looking ahead, the Study Area is anticipated to continue to evolve with residential apartment developments to enter the market as well as increased investment in state and local infrastructure projects that is expected to further enhance the amenity and accessibility for existing and new residents. STUDY AREA APARTMENT SALES CYCLE NO. OF TRANSACTIONS 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 NO. OF TRANSACTIONS MEDIAN SALE PRICE 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 $900,000 $800,000 $700,000 $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 $0 MEDIAN SALES PRICE FUTURE APARTMENT DEVELOPMENT WATERLOO STUDY AREA 2,580 3,400 Source: APM Pricefinder ; Urbis MEDIAN PRICE GROWTH 5 Year Median Price Growth 440 670 1,830 1,030 HOUSE APARTMENT STUDY AREA 13.6% 7.7% 7.3% 6.5% 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021-2022 Source: Cordell Connect ; Urbis Source: APM Pricefinder ; Urbis 6 URBIS WATERLOO MARKET OUTLOOK
The Study Area has recorded strong median rental growth over the past decade. RENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS As at September 2015, the median weekly rent for a 1 bedroom unit (comprising both old and new units) in the Study Area was $550 per week and the median weekly rent for a 2 bedroom unit was $720 per week. This equates to a 10 year median rental increase of 5.7% per annum for 1 bedroom units and 5.5% annum for 2 bedroom units. As at September 2015, APM Pricefinder estimated that Waterloo had a gross unit rental yield of 4.2%. This was above the Metropolitan Sydney average of 4.0% and reflects the attractiveness of Waterloo for renters. Compared to Sydney, the Study Area achieves a 16% rental premium for 1 bedroom units and a 38% rental premium for 2 bedroom units. This highlights the value attached to location, lifestyle and quality by renters in the Study Area. STUDY AREA RENTAL PREMIUM OVER $550 $475 16% $720 $520 38% MEDIAN UNIT RENTAL GROWTH WEEKLY MEDIAN RENT ($) $800 1 BED UNIT (STUDY AREA) $700 1 BED UNIT () $720 2 BED UNIT (STUDY AREA) $600 2 BED UNIT () $550 $500 $520 $475 $400 $300 $200 Sep-05 Sep-06 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-15 Source: Housing NSW, Urbis NEW PRODUCT VERSUS EXISTING PRODUCT WEEKLY MEDIAN RENT ($) $800 $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $0 EXISTING PRODUCT NEW PRODUCT $600 $530 Source: Realestate.com.au, Urbis $695 1 Bed 2 Bed $750 SUMMARY Urbis has investigated the trends that will deliver a sustainable region comprising sustained and confident growth now and into the future. This involves recognising the key fundamentals that investors should seek in order to secure returns, as well as identifying regions that will be the most desirable to live, work and play. Urbis has concluded that the most desirable locations will be those that accommodate P.I.E Population, Investment and Employment. P Population Growth: The Waterloo Study Area has recorded average annual population growth of 5.3% from 2006-2014 and a resident population that is more affluent than the Sydney average. This is reflected by the 5 year unit price growth of 7.7% per annum and two bedroom unit average rental growth of 5.5% during the last decade. I Investment & Infrastructure: Locations within proximity to significant public and private investment are prime areas for residential development and growth, especially when they coexist within convenient transport infrastructure. Waterloo boasts strong public transport and amenity, which will significantly improve as a result of the proposed Waterloo Train Station as part of the $8.3 billion Sydney Metro City Rail Network. In addition, there are other projects that will improve resident amenity in the area. E Employment Opportunities: Proximity to employment nodes and centres is an essential fundamental for residential growth. New jobs lead to new residents as people seek to minimise travel times and improve work/life balance. Waterloo is strategically located in close proximity to growing employment centres including the Sydney CBD, Australian Technology Park, North Sydney CBD, and Sydney Airport with the Sydney Metro City Rail Network anticipated to significantly improve this accessibility. URBIS WATERLOO MARKET OUTLOOK 7
Sydney Level 23, Darling Park Tower 2 201 Sussex Street Sydney NSW 2000 02 8233 9900 This publication is prepared on the instruction of Mirvac and is not suitable for use other than by the party to whom it is addressed. As the publication involves projections and assumptions it can be affected by a number of unforeseen variables. The forecasts and assumptions are a prediction and whilst Urbis has made every effect to ensure that the forecasts and assumptions are based on reasonable information, they may be affected by assumptions that do not necessarily eventuate or by know or unknown risks and uncertainties. It should be noted that past performance is not necessarily a reliable indication of future performance. The information in the publication does not represent financial advice and should not be regarded as such. It has been prepared without taking into account your financial situation or investment objectives. You should consider the appropriateness of the information in regards to your current financial situation or needs. Urbis accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. The information is subject to change without notice and Urbis is under no obligation to update the information or correct any assumptions which may change over time. This study has been prepared for the sole use of Mirvac and is not to be relied upon by any third party without specific approval from Urbis. This publication is subject to copyright. Except as permitted under the Copyright Act 1968, no part of it may, in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise) be reproduced, stored in a retrievals system or transmitted without prior written permission. Enquiries should be addressed to the publishers. Stage 2 of the proposed Sydney Metro City Rail Network and the proposed Crows Nest station is currently intended to be delivered by the Government and is still subject to the planning process, community consultation and funding. Urbis makes no representation that Stage 2 of the proposed Sydney Metro City Rail Network or the proposed Crows Nest station will actually be delivered and if so by what time. EMR0374