Tackling the Shelter Challenge of Cities, Thinking it Through Together Secretary for Social Development World Bank Washington D.C. April 30, 2007 Increasing urban densities: challenges and opportunities for cities Sara Topelson Undersecretary for Urban and Territorial Development 1 2 National & Urban data 1
México 32 Federal entities 2,454 Municipalities 363 Cities (>15,000) 103.9 Million inhabitants 24.7 Million Households 3 Population (Millions) 125.0 112.5 Population & growth rate 1950-2050 105.8 Population Rate (percent) 121.9 100.0 2.5 87.5 2.1 75.0 2.0 2.0 62.5 1.4 Natural growth rate 1.5 50.0 1.0 37.5 28.8 0.9 25.0 Total growth 0.1 0.5 rate 12.5 0.0-0.2 0.0-0.5 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Year 3.5 3.0 Source : Estimates by National Population Council of Mexico 4 2
Dependency ratios 1950-2050 Dependents per 100 persons between 15 a 64 years of age 120 100 Total 80 Population under 15 60 Demographic bonus 40 20 Population over 64 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Año Source : Estimates by National Population Council of Mexico 5 Average annual growth rates by city size 2000-2005 2.0 1.9 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.0 National: 1.0% 0.5 0.0-0.1-0.5 Urban total Large cities Medium cities Small cities Rural 15 000 + 1,000,000 + 100 000-999, 999 15,000 99,999 Less than 15,000 Source : Estimates by National Population Council of Mexico 6 3
120 The progressive march twords urbanization 100 Population in Million 80 60 40 20 0 1900 1910 1921 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2005 Urban population Population 7 National Urban System 9 Cities over 1 million inhabitants (36.1 million) 81 Cities between 100,000 and 1 million inhabitants (27.7 millions) 273 Cities between 15,000 and 100,000 inhabitants (8.9 millions) 8 4
Tijuana Tijuana Built on 1.4 million hectares, cities in Mexico occupy close to 0.75% of the territory The system is growing at a rate of 50 hectares per day Two examples of urban footprint 1980 and 2000 The footprint on the environment is growing at a much faster rate Morelia Morelia 9 1 out of every 3 urban dwellers is poor People under the poverty Evolución de la Pobreza Urbana line in (Absolutos) urban areas 35,000,000 33,868,481 31,432,329 Personas 30,000,000 25,000,000 20,000,000 15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000 0 26,017,494 26,195,447 26,416,229 22,530,986 21,830,096 19,164,823 16,354,817 12,038,695 11,482,610 8,858,579 10,950,350 9,136,366 14,496,586 12,015,098 6,684,558 7,478,137 7,210,489 5,029,505 7,094,479 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Año Pobreza Alimentaria Pobreza de Capacidades Pobreza de Patrimonio 10 5
In general city size is effective against poverty % of people under the poverty line living in the city % of the city population 100.00 90.00 80.00 70.00 60.00 50.00 40.00 30.00 20.00 Palmarito Tochapan Santo Domingo Los Baños ZM Guadalajara ZM Monterrey ZM Valle de México 10.00 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000 100,000,000 11 City population Poor households settle in the periphery of cities, as close to the center as possible, with time the expansion of the city will bring infrastructure and services Guadalajara Oaxaca 12 6
Density is a determinant factor to gasoline consumption, with severe impacts on the environment gasoline consumption Houston Phoenix Detroit Denver Annual per capita gasoline consumption in relation to city density Source: Newman y Kenworthy, 1989 60,000 40,000 Adelaida Los Ángeles San Francisco Boston Washington, D.C. Chicago Nueva York Toronto Perth Brisbane Melbourne Sidney 20,000 Hamburgo Estocolmo Francfort Paris Zurich Bruselas Londres Munich Copenhague Berlín Oeste Viena Amsterdam Singapur Tokio Moscú Hong Kong 50 100 150 200 250 300 Density (hab/h) 13 14 Increased density an urban strategy 7
Density and city size in the National Urban System Density hab/h 120 100 Densidad 80 60 40 80 hab/h urban average density in underdeveloped countries 50 hab/h urban average density in Mexico 20 0 30 hab/h urban average density in developed countries 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000 100,000,000 City population 15 50 hab/h average urban density in México 16 8
Density hab/h 80.0 70.0 Average density for cities grouped by size 72.4 60.0 50.0 50.0 45.7 40.0 30.0 29.2 20.0 10.0 0.0 Urban total Large cities Medium cities Small cities 15,000 + 1,000,000 + 100,000-999,999 15,000-99,999 Source : Estimates by National Population Council of Mexico 17 challenges Diffuse city structure and density patterns not conforming to central or corridor arrangements, hamper the development of efficient public transportation Households per hectare hogares/has 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Density profile for Guadalajara 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 18 Distance distancia to del the centro center km(km) 9
Automobiles are being manufactured at an impressive rate of 50 million per year, a 6.5% growth rate per year. This in large part explains why worldwide urban expansion is advancing at a faster pace than urban population, our cities are losing density at a 1.5% rate per year challenges 19 Most cities have zoning codes dating from the 80s and 90s, these largely reproduced low intensity use prevailing at the time, besides, urban planning in those years was heavily control oriented, many artificial limits to cities growth where built into the codes. As a result large tracks of the most valuable urban land today remains under used and overregulated 20 challenges 10
challenges Progressive housing for the poor is technically incompatible with multystory multy-family developments Tradition and culture still favor detached individual housing challenges 21 Neighbors reclaim public spaces and infrastructure as their own, increased development permits must generally overcome strong public opposition 22 11
The continued rise in oil prices is damping demand for automobile travel, boosting other more environmental friendly alternatives to this mode of transportation Opportunities 23 the inner cities hold 90,000 hectares of vacant fully served land This area could house 7.6 million people, equivalent to half the expected growth in cities for the following 30 years and beyond Opportunities 24 12
A large part of the built environment has yet to be built in order to accommodate important differences in growth rates due to internal migration. 3 federal entities and 54 cities are already loosing population 25.00 Playa del Carmen Opportunities 20.00 National Urban System Growth Rates 15.00 Ocosingo Growth rate 10.00 5.00 0.00 Los Cabos ZM Monterrey ZM Guadalajara ZM Valle de México -5.00 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000 100,000,000 Population 25 100 90 80 70 Age MEXICO: Population Pyramids, 2005-2050 Age profile 2005-2050 Male Female Opportunities 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 People Millons 2005 2050 2050 2005 The changing family structure and the aging of our population favors denser configurations; we can expect a Fuente: CONAPO, Proyected Population 2000-2050. shift of consumer preferences towards more cosmopolitan 26 medium density mixed use urban environments 13
Global warming has become a worldwide concern and it is generating incentives and turning public opinion and public policy towards sustainable solutions 27 Opportunities 28 Tool kit for public policy 14
Fees and taxes to fully internalize externalities Taxes on under used real estate based on opportunity costs Impact fees to fully capture the externalities originated by urban sprawl 29 Regulation and public investment Investment in public spaces to ignite urban renewal Public investment in neighborhood upgrading Increased permissible densities as Incentives for the recycling of under used urban land Evaluation and upgrading of the urban regulatory framework 30 15
Changing the transportation paradigm in cities Financing public transportation projects Promoting Alternatives to the use of the automobile Congestion tariffs Parking tariffs Eliminating subsidies on automobile Raising taxes on gasoline and automobile ownership 31 Housing-based Incentives Houses make up 60% of the city In Mexico 80% of housing in the formal sector is financed by national entities Federal subsidies for the sector and national entities policies should help reshape cities towards sustainability 32 16
Thank you Tackling the Shelter Challenge of Cities, Thinking it Through Together Secretary for Social Development World Bank Washington D.C. April 30, 2007 Increasing urban densities: challenges and opportunities for cities Sara Topelson Undersecretary for Urban and Territorial Development 33 17