Demographic Change, Segregation and Social Urban Renewal from a North Rhine-Westphalian perspective Presentation at the International Symposium Coping with City Shrinkage and Demographic Change Lessons from around the globe Evelyn Sucato Research Institute for Regional and Urban Development, Building and Construction of the Federal State of North Rhine-Westphalia (ILS NRW) Department for Urban Development and Housing
Contents 1. Demographic Change in North Rhine-Westphalia 2. Segregation processes in North Rhine-Westphalian cities 3. Approaches 4. Conclusions
Population Development in North Rhine-Westphalia 1975-2001 Since the 1970ies population losses in the Ruhr-Area Demographic Change in North Rhine-Westphalia
Population Change in North Rhine-Westphalia 2002-2020 2006: 18.08 million Demographic Change in North Rhine-Westphalia 2020: 17.95 million 2040: 16.89 million Source: ILS-trends 2/04
Development and Prognosis of the age structure in the cities 30 % Demographic Change in North Rhine-Westphalia Cities under 19 60-74 older than 75 25 20 15 10 5 0 22,5 18,5 16,8 15,6 17,1 14,2 11,5 7,6 5,8 1980 2000 2020 Quelle: eigene Darstellung nach Landtag NRW 2005: 48, Daten LDS NRW
Development of the population older than 75 years Demographic Change in North Rhine-Westphalia Proportion in 2002 Change of Proportion 2002 2020 in % Source: ILS-trends 2/04
Development of households 2002 2040 according to their size Demographic Change in North Rhine-Westfalia 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 36,2 36,5 37,3 38,3 38,6 38,7 39 39,5 40,1 33,9 34,3 35 35,5 36,3 36,8 36,7 36,4 35,9 14 13,6 13,1 12,6 12,2 11,9 11,7 11,7 11,7 16 15,6 14,6 13,6 12,9 12,6 12,5 12,4 12,3 2002 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Households with 1 person 2 persons 3 persons 4 and more persons Quelle: eigene Darstellung nach LDS NRW 2005: 7
Change of inhabited housing units compared to the preceding year Demographic Change in North Rhine-Westfalia 142.000 or 2 % 100000 50000 0-50000 -100000-150000 +52.000 +53.030 +27.030 +10.000-41.030-37.030-112.000-137.000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Source: eigene Darstellung nach LDS NRW 2005: 9 7.4 million
Development of vacancies in North Rhine-Westphalian housing companies % 3 2,7 Demographic Change in North Rhine-Westfalia 2,5 2 1,5 1 0,5 0 2,3 2 1,9 1,7 1,7 1,1 0,4 0,2 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Source: eigene Darstellung nach Wfa 2005
Proportion of non-germans in NRW 45 40,4 % 40 35 30 27,5 % Demographic Change in North Rhine-Westfalia But on local level: Dortmund 12.7 % Dortmund Nordstadt 41.5 % Duisburg 14.9 % Duisburg Marxloh 33.8 % and more % 25 20 15 10 5 0 11,4 % 18,6 % 13,0 % 1998 2015 2040 Year total insgesamt 0-19 Source: LDS, Beiträge Band 819; Basisvariante der Prognose 18,7 %
A-Factor and Wealth-Factor in cities and counties in NRW 2,5 Segregation processes in North Rhine-Westfalian cities Arme, Alte, Arbeitslose, Ausländer, abn. Bev. A-Factor 2,0 1,5 1,0,5 0,0 -,5-1,0-1,5 GE HER DU DO OB BO ReBOT HAM Un Ac Hs Wes Dn Hx Kle Pb St Bor Coe E K KR W HA AC MG BI LEV Rs SG En Mk Si Bm Hf Dt Ne Gm Hsk Mi Vie So Waf Eu Su Oe Gt -2,0-2,0-1,0 0,0 1,0 Wohlstandsfaktor (bes. verf. Einkommen) Wealth-Factor MHBN Me MS Gl 2,0 D 3,0 Source: ILS NRW Schrift 201: 33
Ethnic Segregation, familiy status und social status in Essen and Gelsenkirchen Segregation processes in North Rhine-Westfalian cities Source: ILS NRW Schrift 201: 52
Approaches The socially integrative city Stadtumbau West Stabilisation of deprived urban ares and hinder further polarisation Recreation and stimulation of the functional cohesion of deprived urban areas More information on: www.sozialestadt.de www.soziale-stadt.nrw.de Catalysts: multiple deprivation, bad life circumstances, segregation In North Rhine Westphalia since 1993 Catalysts: high vacancies in the housing market and in shops, derelict sites, loss of functions in inner cities In West Germany since 2004 More information on: www.stadtumbauwest.de pictures from www.soziale-stadt.nrw.de
Area improvement / Infrastructure - Impressions pictures from www.soziale-stadt.nrw.de after modernisation in Hamm- Norden Theater in Gelsenkirchen Bismarck/ Schalke-Nord Renewal of housing stock and sourrounding Dortmund Clarenberg Source: Cornelia Suhan Community centre Alte Heid in Oberhausen Knappenviertel Local Café in Monheim Berliner Viertel Source: Joachim Bastan Partnership office in Bergheim Süd/West
Image / Participation / Networking - Impressions pictures from www.soziale-stadt.nrw.de Community festival in Dortmund Nordstadt Participation of residents in Aachen Ost Community newspaper in Herne Horsthausen Logo in Siegen Fischbacherberg Interest group of resident in Düren Südost Market of different Cultures in Duisburg Marxloh
Restructuring / Demolition / Adjustment - Impressions before and after Stadtumbau in Gelsenkirchen Tossehof and Oer Erkenschwick Schillerpark pictures from www.schillerpark.info and www.stadtumbauwest.de/konzept/pw_albstadt_kemper.pdf
Conclusions The current West-German perspective on demographic changes is different than the East-German as a result of a lower pressure on the housing market amongst others. But the future will bring similar effects, so we have to act preventive. The perception of long-term population decline and other effects of the demograpic changes is sometimes still low especially on local level. Therefore it is necessary to get more awareness from local politics on the topic. As demographic change is a multi-dimensional phenomenon we have to consider all aspects at the same time. Integrated area-based approaches and concepts are proven approach but we need to widen these approaches city-wide and also integrate regional aspects.
Thank you! Contact: ILS NRW Evelyn Sucato Phone: +49 231 9051 247 Fax: +49 231 9051 195 mail to: evelyn.sucato@ils.nrw.de