FORECAST REPORT 86 NEW ZEALAND TRENDS IN PROPERTY AND CONSTRUCTION FIRST Quarter 2018
OFFICES AROUND THE WORLD Africa Americas EUROPE Oceania Botswana Gaborone Mauritius Saint Pierre Mozambique Maputo South Africa Cape Town Johannesburg Pretoria Asia North Asia Beijing Chengdu Chongqing Dalian Guangzhou Guiyang Haikou Hangzhou Hong Kong Jeju Macau Nanjing Nanning Qingdao Seoul Shanghai Shenyang Shenzhen Tianjin Wuhan Wuxi Xiamen Xian Zhuhai Caribbean Barbados Cayman Islands St. Lucia North America Austin Boston Calgary Chicago Denver Guam Hilo Honolulu Las Vegas Los Angeles Maui New York Orlando Phoenix Portland San Francisco Seattle Toronto Tucson Waikoloa Washington DC United Kingdom Birmingham Bristol Cumbria Leeds London Manchester Sheffield Thames Valley Warrington/Birchwood Welwyn Garden City RLB Euro Alliance Austria Belgium Czech Republic Finland Germany Hungary Ireland Italy Luxemburg Netherlands Norway Poland Portugal Russia Spain Sweden Turkey MIDDLE EAST Oman Muscat Qatar Doha Saudi Arabia Riyadh Australia Adelaide Brisbane Cairns Canberra Coffs Harbour Darwin Gold Coast Melbourne Newcastle Perth Sunshine Coast Sydney Townsville New Zealand Auckland Christchurch Hamilton Palmerston North Queenstown Tauranga Wellington South Asia Bacolod Bohol Cagayan de Oro Cebu Davao Ho Chi Minh City Iloilo Jakarta Kuala Lumpur Laguna Metro Manila Singapore Yangon United Arab Emirates Abu Dhabi Dubai Cover: Verto Apartments, Auckland Disclaimer: While the information in this publication is believed to be correct at the time of publishing, no responsibility is accepted for its accuracy. Persons desiring to utilise any information appearing in the publication should verify its applicability to their specific circumstances. Cost information in this publication is indicative and for general guidance only and is based on rates as January 2018. National statistics are derived from the Statistics New Zealand. 2 Rider Levett Bucknall Forecast Report 86 First Quarter 2018
CONFIDENCE TODAY INSPIRES TOMORROW Rider levett bucknall With a network that covers the globe and a heritage spanning over two centuries, Rider Levett Bucknall is a leading independent organisation in cost management and quantity surveying and advisory services. Our achievements are renowned: from the early days of pioneering quantity surveying, to landmark projects such as the Sydney Opera House, HSBC Headquarters Building in Hong Kong, the 2012 London Olympic Games and CityCenter in Las Vegas. We continue this successful legacy with our dedication to the value, quality and sustainability of the built environment. Our innovative thinking, global reach, and flawless execution push the boundaries. Taking ambitious projects from an idea to reality. forecast 86 Prepared by the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (Inc.) exclusively for Rider Levett Bucknall, Forecast is produced quarterly and provides detailed local construction market intelligence and knowledge. construction market intelligence Forecast is supplemented by Rider Levett Bucknall's construction market intelligence publications: the International Report, regional (including the Oceania Report) and country specific reports. key points in this issue Construction activity rebounds There was a rebound in both residential and non-residential construction in the September quarter, following an easing over the first half of 2017. Net migration turning There are signs net migration has turned, with population growth likely to slow over the coming years. However, with population growth having outpaced construction growth particularly that of new dwellings in the past few years, we expect construction demand to remain strong over the next few years. Demand for industrial building picks up Demand for factories and storage buildings have picked up, as businesses have become more optimistic about investment. Interest rates likely on hold until late 2018 While there is uncertainty over many of the new Government s policy changes, more expansionary fiscal policy will be a feature of the next few years. Although the growth outlook remains solid, there are downside risks from heightened political tensions offshore. That, along with inflation being contained, means there remains little urgency for the Reserve Bank to lift interest rates. We continue to expect the Official Cash Rate to remain on hold until late 2018. Rider Levett Bucknall Forecast Report 86 First Quarter 2018 3
Burwood Hospital, Christchurch
Building activity trends Construction activity rebounded in the September quarter, after declines over the first half of 2017. Capacity constraints in the construction sector, along with tighter access to financing, had seen some construction developments put on hold. These constraints limited the extent to which construction activity could ramp up, despite strong underlying demand. Net migration shows signs of turning in recent months, as the number of people moving to New Zealand eases and the number of New Zealanders leaving the country picks up. However, the surge in population in recent years should continue to support underlying construction demand over the next few years, given population growth has outpaced the growth in house-building and other construction activity. It typically takes around two years for the full effects of population growth to flow through to construction activity, with some catch up likely over the coming years. Hence we expect a solid pipeline of construction activity. Despite the rebound in construction activity more recently, construction cost inflation has moderated, both in Auckland and the other regions across New Zealand. Construction sector firms report it being slightly easier to find both skilled and unskilled labour, with migrants helping to alleviate labour shortages in the building industry. Although the new Government has indicated it is looking to reduce net migration, we expect the slowing in the number of skilled migrants coming in to work in capacity constrained sectors such as construction will be modest. This means migrants will still likely help to fill skills shortages in the construction sector over the coming years. The relatively high construction cost inflation in Auckland indicates capacity pressures in the Auckland construction sector remains more acute than in the other regions. We expect further moderation in construction cost inflation across New Zealand in the coming years, as labour shortages and bottlenecks in the supply of materials ease. In particular, we expect construction cost inflation in Auckland will continue to ease as capacity in the Auckland construction sector increases to meet growing demand. However, strong construction demand means that despite some easing we expect construction cost inflation will remain relatively high. Figure 1 Net migration turning around Net inflows per year 140 NZ PERMANENT ARRIVALS AND DEPARTURES 120 100 80 PERSONS PER YEAR (000s) 60 40 20 0-20 Source: Statistics NZ, NZIER -40 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 NET MIGRATION ARRIVALS DEPARTURES Rider Levett Bucknall Forecast Report 86 First Quarter 2018 5
Building activity outlook Despite some slowing in population growth more recently, the surge in population over the past few years should continue to support strong construction demand over the next few years. Capacity pressures are easing in the construction sector as higher construction costs encourage more resources, including labour, to be directed towards the sector. Non-residential construction activity lifted in the September 2017 quarter, after declines over the first half of the year. We expect further growth in non-residential construction over the coming year. Continued strong tourism activity continues to drive demand for new hotel developments, while demand for industrial buildings is lifting as businesses feel more optimistic about investment. Economic backdrop While there is uncertainty over many of the new Government s policy changes, more expansionary fiscal policy will be a feature of the next few years. This will provide a short-term stimulus to the economy. This stimulus, combined with the lagged effects of strong population growth in recent years, will continue to support solid economic activity for the next year. The combination of increased fiscal stimulus from the Government and and continued labour shortages from a slowing in net migration, is likely to see a slightly faster pick-up in inflation. Interest and exchange rates We continue to expect the Reserve Bank will start lifting the OCR from November 2018. While inflation pressures are expected to be slightly stronger, domestic and offshore political uncertainty means the Reserve Bank will likely wait to assess the situation before commencing tightening. The new Government has announced a review of the Reserve Bank Act. This review will consider two changes: adding maximising employment to the price stability objective, and moving to a committee model for the setting of monetary policy. The Policy Targets Agreement already requires the Reserve Bank to consider stability in output, interest rates and the exchange rate when implementing monetary policy. Adding an employment objective with no numerical target attached is unlikely to have a material impact on the interest rate outlook. Similarly, a move to a committee decision-making model would simply mean a formalisation of the current system, where the Reserve Bank s policy making Governing Committee comprises of the Governor, Deputy Governor, and Assistant Governor. Uncertainty around the formation of the new Government, and subsequent policy changes, had dampened demand for the New Zealand dollar. However, the release of GDP data indicating the New Zealand economy performed strongly over the past year boosted the currency. We expect the New Zealand dollar will ease as the prospects for the other major economies improve and the interest rate differential narrows. Building investment The NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion s architects measure of own activity points to a solid pipeline of construction work across the residential, commercial and Government sectors. Population growth and high numbers of tourist inflows continue to drive demand for non-residential construction. As business confidence continues to improve we expect this will support further investment into a wide range of buildings, including industrial and offices. 6 Rider Levett Bucknall Forecast Report 86 First Quarter 2018
Building consents Demand for new hotel developments remains the top driver of growth in non-residential construction demand over the past year. Demand for industrial and social buildings is also picking up, as businesses feel more optimistic about investment. The average value per square metre consented continues to ease from very high levels, indicating further moderation in non-residential construction cost inflation. Building consents by sector Despite the recent turnaround in net migration, we expect population growth (while moderating) and tourism demand will continue to underpin many of the longer-term trends: Office growth to accommodate the higher number of white collar workers. Public sector spending on education and healthcare facilities. New accommodation buildings in response to the continued high numbers of international visitors, as well as strong domestic tourism activity. We expect earthquake strengthening activity will also contribute to non-residential construction demand. Figure 2 Construction cost inflation moderating Annual % change in residential construction cost 10 CONSTRUCTION COST OF NEW HOUSING 8 6 ANNUAL % CHANGE 4 2 0-2 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 NEW ZEALAND LESS AUCKLAND AUCKLAND Source: Statistics NZ, NZIER Rider Levett Bucknall Forecast Report 86 First Quarter 2018 7
Samuel Marsden Collegiate School, Wellington
Building consents by region Despite some slowing around mid-2017, Auckland continues to lead the growth in non-residential construction demand over the past year. Growth has been particularly strong in demand for new accommodation buildings, reflecting the acute capacity pressures in the Auckland tourism sector. Strong growth in hiring in the professional services sector is also boosting demand for new office space in the region. Non-residential construction demand has also increased in neighbouring regions Waikato and the Bay of Plenty over the past year (figure 6). In Waikato, this has been driven by stronger demand for new office and industrial buildings, reflecting the spillover effects of strong population growth from Auckland. Meanwhile, growth in the Bay of Plenty has been driven by stronger demand for new education buildings and retail outlets. We expect nonresidential construction demand in these halo regions will continue to lift over the coming years. In contrast, non-residential consent issuance in other main cities such as Wellington has eased over the past year. Although demand for accommodation and healthcare facilities have increased, this has been offset by lower demand for retail outlets and office buildings in the region. Non-residential consent issuance in Canterbury continues to drop on lower demand for healthcare and education facilities over the past year. Post-earthquake rebuild activity should continue to underpin non-residential construction demand, although the level of activity is likely to continue to ease over the coming year. Figure 3 Construction costs still high despite recent slowing Annual floor area; $ per square metre 4000 NON-RESIDENTIAL CONSENTS & COST 3000 2500 ANNUAL (SQUARE METRES, 000s) 3000 2000 1000 2000 1500 1000 $ PER SQUARE METRE 500 0 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 TOTAL NON-RESIDENTIAL BUILDING FLOOR AREA (LHS) AVERAGE $ VALUE PER SQUARE METRE Source: Statistics NZ, NZIER Rider Levett Bucknall Forecast Report 86 First Quarter 2018 9
Figure 4 We expect interest rates on hold for much of 2018 %pa 12 OFFICIAL CASH RATE FORECASTS 10 8 %PA 6 4 2 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Source: RBNZ, NZIER Figure 5 Strong tourism activity continues to drive demand for hotel developments Annual change in consents, $m, year ended October 2017 300 NON-RESIDENTIAL CONSENTS BY BUILDING TYPE 300 CHANGE OVER YEAR TO OCTOBER 2017 ($M) 200 200 100 100 0 0-100 -100-200 -200 CHANGE OVER YEAR TO OCTOBER 2017 ($M) -300-300 HOTELS SOCIAL OFFICE STORAGE INDUSTRIAL FARM RETAIL HOSTELS EDUCATION HEALTH Source: Statistics NZ, NZIER NEW ALTERED TOTAL 10 Rider Levett Bucknall Forecast Report 86 First Quarter 2018
Figure 6 Construction demand eased in mid-2017, but still high Annual cubic metres, 000s 1,200 CONCRETE SALES BY REGION 1,000 ANNUAL CUBIC METRES, 000s 800 600 400 200 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Source: Statistics NZ AUCKLAND CANTERBURY WELLINGTON WAIKATO & BAY OF PLENTY Table 1 Non-residential building consents by region and sector $m of consents for the year ending October 2017; red colour shading for decline in consents from previous year Sector Region Hostels, prisons etc Accomodation Health Education Social, cultural, religious Retail Office Storage Industrial Farm Northland 0.8 16.6 8.8 17.5 11.1 8.5 7.9 5.8 6.8 10.6 Auckland 119.3 231.1 109.2 408.3 206.0 322.5 637.5 330.3 150.1 26.8 Waikato 3.5 15.1 17.7 58.6 19.5 67.6 72.0 61.9 96.5 56.1 Bay of Plenty 0.0 3.8 32.3 82.8 19.1 67.2 49.8 65.9 51.9 10.2 Gisborne 0.0 0.1 0.1 5.5 5.2 0.8 11.1 2.0 2.8 2.4 Hawke's Bay 4.7 0.2 14.3 12.6 15.7 10.4 9.6 23.4 39.7 6.0 Taranaki 0.0 0.8 1.9 13.3 10.7 2.4 8.8 5.3 16.5 25.0 Manawatu-Wanganui 4.8 2.1 6.1 34.0 10.9 30.4 11.7 10.6 14.4 17.0 Wellington 3.7 58.7 52.2 89.4 54.7 50.1 178.2 21.6 32.7 7.8 Nelson 0.1 0.0 4.0 2.6 0.5 4.7 29.5 12.3 4.3 0.4 Tasman 0.0 0.3 0.7 4.3 0.0 1.1 3.7 9.9 7.4 5.7 Marlborough 7.6 0.3 5.2 5.9 1.4 1.6 3.2 3.0 13.9 3.1 West Coast 0.0 8.7 43.7 1.9 1.7 1.9 0.2 0.6 1.0 2.9 Canterbury 31.9 73.4 116.3 223.5 195.2 150.3 239.3 227.7 99.6 53.7 Otago 21.9 37.6 22.3 71.7 29.9 44.0 51.1 13.9 30.2 18.1 Southland 4.8 1.7 0.1 5.5 0.2 7.5 3.5 5.1 47.5 14.6 Source: Statistics NZ, NZIER Rider Levett Bucknall Forecast Report 86 First Quarter 2018 11
Tarawera High School, Kawerau
Building costs The Capital Goods Price Index for Non-Residential Buildings (CGPI- NRB) (the Index) is an official measure of cost movements in the sector. The Index excludes GST. We use the Index as an indicator of cost escalation. The Index is a national average across all building types. We therefore advise caution in applying the increase in the CGPI-NRB as an indicator of cost escalation for specific projects. The Rider Levett Bucknall Fourth Quarter 2017 Oceania Report provides local regional comment and tender price relativity between the main New Zealand and Australian centres. This publication is available at www.rlb.com or on request from any Rider Levett Bucknall office. We forecast construction cost inflation to moderate to 4 percent by the end of 2018. Beyond that, we expect annual construction cost inflation to ease to around 3.5 percent by 2021, as capacity pressures in the construction sector eases. Despite the solid construction growth outlook for the next few years, we do not expect the inflation to be as strong as the mid-2000s given that the lower inflation environment limits the extent to which rising costs can be passed on quickly, and strong net migration is alleviating skills shortages in the building sector. Figure 7 Non-residential building cost escalation CGPI-NRB index, annual % change 12 FORECAST 10 8 6 4 2 0-2 -4-6 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 Source: Statistics NZ, NZIER forecasts Rider Levett Bucknall Forecast Report 86 First Quarter 2018 13
Table 2 Non-residential building cost index Year Quarter Index 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Quarterly % change Annual % change March 1351 0.1 1.3 June 1352 0.1 0.7 September 1354 0.1 0.5 December 1358 0.3 0.7 March 1365 0.5 1.0 June 1372 0.5 1.5 September 1383 0.8 2.1 December 1402 1.4 3.2 March 1413 0.8 3.5 June 1429 1.1 4.2 September 1440 0.8 4.1 December 1456 1.1 3.9 March 1471 1.0 4.1 June 1480 0.6 3.6 September 1494 0.9 3.8 December 1502 0.5 3.2 March 1514 0.8 2.9 June 1529 1.0 3.3 September 1548 1.2 3.6 December 1586 2.5 5.6 March 1595 0.6 5.4 June 1613 1.1 5.5 2017 September 1629 1.0 5.2 2018 2019 2020 2021 December 1648 1.2 3.9 March 1664 1.0 4.4 June 1680 1.0 4.2 September 1697 1.0 4.1 December 1715 1.1 4.0 March 1732 1.0 4.0 June 1748 1.0 4.0 September 1765 1.0 4.1 December 1781 0.9 3.9 March 1797 0.9 3.8 June 1813 0.9 3.7 September 1829 0.9 3.6 December 1845 0.9 3.5 March 1861 0.9 3.5 June 1877 0.9 3.5 September 1893 0.9 3.5 December 1908 0.8 3.4 Notes: The current and forecast CGPI-NRB is a national average, which does not differentiate between regions or building types. We therefore advise caution in applying the increase in the CGPI-NRB as a measure of cost escalation for specific building projects. Source: Statistics NZ, NZIER forecasts 14 Rider Levett Bucknall Forecast Report 86 First Quarter 2018
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