Q2 2016 Global Travel Insights APRIL 2016 TO JUNE 2016
2 SOJERN.COM / SOLUTIONS@SOJERN.COM 3 Table of Contents Sojern is travel's leading performance marketing engine. Through the Sojern Travel Platform and billions of traveler intent signals across online and mobile channels, we put more heads in beds, travelers in seats, and tourists in towns for our clients worldwide. GLOBAL TRAVEL INSIGHTS Sojern analyzed travel behavior worldwide in five regions: North America, Latin America, Europe, Middle East & Africa, and Asia-Pacific in order to understand travel intent for Q2 and looking forward into Q3 and beyond. Using data based on search and booking behavior provided by major airlines, online travel agents (OTAs), meta-search and other travel service providers, we provide travel marketers with insights to help plan more strategic and effective campaigns. Interested in learning more about your market s travel trends? Connect with us. Global Travel Trends 4 A Bird s Eye View 5 North America: Q2 Search Trends 6 Latin America: Q2 Search Trends 7 Europe: Q2 Search Trends 8 Middle East & Africa: Q2 Search Trends 9 Asia-Pacific: Q2 Search Trends Q2 2016 Travel Events 10 North America: Copa Games 11 Latin America: Colombia Visa Restrictions Lifted 12 Europe: Euro Cup Update 13 Middle East & Africa: Ramadan Update 14 Asia-Pacific: Golden Week Looking Forward 16 North America 16 Q3 Search Trends 18 Travel Changes Throughout the Summer 19 Latin America 19 Q3 Search Trends 21 Updated Olympic Outlook 22 Europe 22 Q3 Search Trends 24 City Search Patterns Compared 25 Middle East & Africa 25 Q3 Search Trends 27 Tourism Trends in Middle East & Africa 28 Asia-Pacific 28 Q3 Search Trends 30 Singapore Formula One Grand Prix Preview Appendix 31 Glossary 31 Regional Coverage 31 Methodology
4 SOJERN.COM / SOLUTIONS@SOJERN.COM Q2 2016 GLOBAL TRAVEL INSIGHTS 5 Global Travel Trends What were the quarterly outbound search trends for North America? A Bird s Eye View Top 10 Countries Searched and Booked New York City Miami 18% 8% 1 TRAVELER Las Vegas 2 TRAVELERS France Russia Los Angeles 74% 3+ TRAVELERS Germany Greece Spain Thailand Chicago Italy Mexico US UK Lead Time Netherlands Switzerland Portugal SEARCHED BOOKED BOTH 17% 10% 9% 9% 23% 33% Share of Q2 Search and Booking Volumes by Month 0 to 7 Days 8 to 14 Days 15 to 21 Days 22 to 29 Days 30 to 59 Days 60+ Days 43% 32% 33% 33% 34% 34% 34% 33% 11% April May June SEARCHED BOOKED 14%
6 SOJERN.COM / SOLUTIONS@SOJERN.COM Q2 2016 GLOBAL TRAVEL INSIGHTS 7 What were the quarterly outbound search trends for Latin America? What were the quarterly outbound search trends for Europe? Miami New York City Madrid Orlando 17% 12% 71% 1 TRAVELER 2 TRAVELERS 3+ TRAVELERS Barcelona Palma de Mallorca Lisbon 23% 14% 63% 1 TRAVELER 2 TRAVELERS 3+ TRAVELERS Los Angeles Paris/New York City (tied) Lead Time Lead Time 15% 8% 7% 7% 20% 43% 15% 8% 7% 7% 21% 42% 0 to 7 Days 8 to 14 Days 15 to 21 Days 22 to 29 Days 30 to 59 Days 60+ Days 0 to 7 Days 8 to 14 Days 15 to 21 Days 22 to 29 Days 30 to 59 Days 60+ Days 27% 38% 24% 25% 15% 11% 34% 26%
8 SOJERN.COM / SOLUTIONS@SOJERN.COM Q2 2016 GLOBAL TRAVEL INSIGHTS 9 What were the quarterly outbound search trends for the Middle East & Africa? What were the quarterly outbound search trends for Asia-Pacific? New York City Paris Istanbul 14% 13% 72% 1 TRAVELER 2 TRAVELERS 3+ TRAVELERS Bangkok Tokyo Singapore Hong Kong 19% 12% 68% 1 TRAVELER 2 TRAVELERS 3+ TRAVELERS Dubai Lead Time Lead Time 18% 10% 8% 8% 20% 36% 15% 8% 7% 7% 19% 44% 0 to 7 Days 8 to 14 Days 15 to 21 Days 22 to 29 Days 30 to 59 Days 60+ Days 0 to 7 Days 8 to 14 Days 15 to 21 Days 22 to 29 Days 30 to 59 Days 60+ Days 27% 37% 26% 29% 14% 12% 33% 22%
10 SOJERN.COM / SOLUTIONS@SOJERN.COM Q2 2016 GLOBAL TRAVEL INSIGHTS 11 North America: Copa Games Q2 2016 Travel Events The US hosted the Copa America tournament for the first time in the games 100 year history on June 3-26. Cities including Seattle, San Francisco, and Orlando played host to soccer teams and fans from all over North and South America. In our Q1 2016 report, travel intent revealed that Dallas, Chicago, and Boston were the top cities searching to go to the tournament. We ve updated our look to include top originations booking flights to Copa cities during Q1 and Q2: Top Origination for Copa Games Q1 Compared to Q2 Latin America: Colombia Visa Restrictions Lifted On December 2, 2015, Colombia and the European Union (EU) signed a short-stay visa agreement. This allows travel between the two geos without the previously required visas. 1 The increase in searches from Colombia to the EU was immediate and dramatic: +131% Increase in the share of searches for European destinations in May 2016 compared to May 2015 +42% Year-over-year increase in volume of bookings from Colombia to Europe Rank Top Booked in Q1 Top Booked in Q2 Rank Change 1 San Francisco New York City +1 2 New York City San Francisco -1 3 Chicago Chicago - Indexed Bookings From Colombia to Europe 100 = Monthly Average Bookings from May 2015 to May 2016 200 4 Dallas Los Angeles +2 5 Miami Miami - 6 Los Angeles Dallas -2 7 Phoenix Phoenix - 8 Philadelphia Philadelphia - 9 Houston Houston - 10 San Diego Washington, DC + 150 100 50 VISA WAIVER AGREEMENT SIGNED Knowing the origin markets headed to your city is important for any travel marketer, so too is knowing the magnitude of events like Copa for drawing travelers. With host cities seeing a sizeable increase in travelers during the Copa games, travel marketers need to take note and market to event-based travelers. Incremental Increase in Bookings Year-Over-Year During Copa Dates 0 May '15 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan '16 BOOKINGS TO EUROPE Feb Mar Apr May +29% +28% for Seattle for Orlando +21% for San Francisco Lifting these restrictions has an impact on not only Colombian travelers, but also the global travel industry. If you re a European travel marketer, knowing that you have access to a group who were previously difficult to reach, gives you a direct avenue for finding new customers.the substantial increase in interest to the EU means that there is a new group of in-market travelers who you can message. If you re a travel marketer in Latin America, you too have a new, fresh market in European travelers and should start planning accordingly. 1 Bendavid, Naftali. (June 10, 2015) EU Signs Visa Pact With Colombia and Peru. The Wall Street Journal.
12 SOJERN.COM / SOLUTIONS@SOJERN.COM Q2 2016 GLOBAL TRAVEL INSIGHTS 13 Europe: Euro Cup Update TRAVEL INTENT CHANGES Q1 TO Q2 In our Q1 2016 Global Travel Trends report, we looked at interest to this year s UEFA European Championship tournament. Newcomers to the tournament, such as Albania and Slovakia, dominated in week-over-week travel intent from June 10 compared to the previous week. Our updated view shows that these newcomers continue to lead in travel intent: Middle East and Africa: Ramadan Update In our Q1 2016 report, we looked forward to early travel trends surrounding the big travel season post-ramadan. For Q2, we refreshed the look in order to determine how last-minute bookers have shifted trends. As we moved closer to the holiday, the ranking of popular destinations changed. Turkey, which was in third in Q1 dropped to two positions in Q2, but India remained the most popular across both quarters. Top Football Nations: Q1 vs Q2 Look Newcomers to the Tournament: Q1 vs Q2 Look Change in Destination Ranking Q1 to Q2 Departures: June 30 to July 6 Portugal +188% +85% Albania +3600% +418% Rank Q1 Origin Region Q2 Origin Region Rank Change 1 India India - Germany Italy +38% +28% +36% +5% Wales Northern Ireland +840% +387% +150% +227% 2 US Saudi Arabia + 3 Turkey US -1 4 UK Egypt +2 5 Germany Turkey -2 6 Egypt UK -2 Q1 Q2 7 France France - 8 Philippines Germany -3 OPTIMISTIC FANS LOOKING EARLY On June 20, we looked at inbound travel intent to France in order to see who had the most optimistic fans moving into the next round that is, those fans already looking for travel to the final games before their teams qualified: Percent Increase in Intent from Group Stages to Games of Last 16 +108% Turkey +69% France +45% UK +58% Germany Travel intent, as we see here for Euro Cup, is not only exciting for the teams and countries that support them, it also translates into huge opportunities for travel marketers. Knowing which markets are flocking to your location allows you to target ads to them and upsell. If they re coming in for the games, consider running a special that encourages them to extend their stay. Travel marketers should take note of this event and try to capitalize on others like it reaching out to event-based travelers is an ideal opportunity to offer additional experiences and upgrades while they are in destination. 9 Italy Jordan + 10 Canada Pakistan + In our Q1 look, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Jordan showed the biggest increase in post-ramadan travel intent. There s a bit of a shift in which country is feeling the biggest impact, with the following making up the top five list: Percentage Growth in Travel Intent from June 30 and July 1 Compared to the Week Before (June 23-24) +188% Bahrain +164% Qatar +148% Iraq Further: Trips of 12 days or more remain the most popular for post-ramadan travel at 39% of all travel; Regional trips increased from 15% to 25% of all travel after Ramadan; and June 20 and July 1 remain the most popular departure dates. +132% Kuwait +131% United Arab Emirates Understanding when and where Middle Eastern travelers search and book around such a major period of travel allows travel marketers to adapt to changing preferences and shift marketing strategies along with the traveler s path to purchase.
14 SOJERN.COM / SOLUTIONS@SOJERN.COM Q2 2016 GLOBAL TRAVEL INSIGHTS 15 Asia-Pacific: Golden Week In Japan, Golden Week consists of four national holidays within seven days from April 29 through May 5. This year, for the first time since 2011, Golden Week didn t include a weekend. In order to see how changes to the season impact travel, we compared travel trends from 2015 to 2016: Traveling for Golden Week 77% 70% 20% 24% 3% 6% 1 Traveler 2 Travelers 3+ Travelers 2015 2016 Change in for Golden Week 2015 to 2016 0 to 1 Days -48% 2 to 3 Days 5% 4 to 5 Days 17% 6 to 7 Days 41% Looking Forward -19% -18% A few other interesting travel trends emerged, including the fact that more group travel occurs during Golden Week than outside of it, and that most travelers book their trips roughly two months in advance. Time your campaigns accordingly and know that offers for group travel will be more effective. Keep in mind that year over year trends are not static. Next year, Golden Week falls on a weekend, so trends are sure to shift again.
16 SOJERN.COM / SOLUTIONS@SOJERN.COM Q2 2016 GLOBAL TRAVEL INSIGHTS 17 What are the Q3 search trends for North America? What are the Q3 search trends for North America? SHORT-HAUL LONG-HAUL HIGH LOW Share of Weekday Travel Departure Las Vegas New York City Cancun Miami Paris Los Angeles San Francisco San Juan Dublin SHORT-HAUL 9% 10% 12% 19% 26% 15% 9% LONG-HAUL 13% 12% 13% 16% 21% 15% 10% 68% 70% 1 Traveler 20% 19% 2 Travelers 12% 11% 3+ Travelers Share of Weekday Searches 40% 15% 38% 26% SHORT-HAUL 16% 18% 18% 16% 12% 9% 10% 12% 19% 9% 39% LONG-HAUL 16% 17% 17% 16% 13% 10% 11%
18 SOJERN.COM / SOLUTIONS@SOJERN.COM Q2 2016 GLOBAL TRAVEL INSIGHTS 19 Travel Changes Throughout the Summer Summer means vacation season for North America. But, how do vacations change over the course of the summer months? We looked at the top 10 searched destinations for North American travelers throughout July, August, and September in order to see changes in travel behavior: Top Destinations for North America Throughout the Summer What are the Q3 search trends for Latin America? SHORT-HAUL LONG-HAUL Rank July August Septemeber 1 New York City New York City New York City 2 Chicago Chicago Chicago 3 Los Angeles Los Angeles Los Angeles Cancun Rio de Janeiro Santiago Mexico City Lima Miami New York City Madrid Orlando Paris 4 Miami Miami Miami 5 Dallas San Francisco 6 Washington, DC Dallas Dallas 7 San Francisco Boston San Francisco 67% 68% 18% 18% 15% 14% 8 Boston Washington, DC Paris 1 Traveler 2 Travelers 3+ Travelers 9 Las Vegas Toronto Washington, DC 10 Atlanta Boston There s little shift in the top four positions they re each large cities and, traditionally major summer destinations. The further down the list, though, the more interesting things become: has quite a dramatic rise from not appearing in July, to tenth spot in August, rising to fifth place in September. People look for international travel later in the year, hence the rise in towards the end of the summer. Paris also pops up in September, supporting this theory. San Francisco peaks in August, notoriously the hottest month of the summer. Perhaps the city s cooler temperatures, similar with Toronto, are the reason for increased interest. Washington, DC is most popular in July US Independence Day may be drawing travelers to the capital for celebrations and fireworks. Understanding how trends change over time is important to ensuring that your marketing efforts stay aligned with travelers' intent throughout every season. 26% 15% 30% 19% 15% 17% 28% 49%
20 SOJERN.COM / SOLUTIONS@SOJERN.COM Q2 2016 GLOBAL TRAVEL INSIGHTS 21 What are the Q3 search trends for Latin America? HIGH LOW Updated Olympic Outlook In our Q1 2016 report, we looked ahead to Olympic travel intent in order to see which countries were most excited for this year s games. With growing controversy about the games, including Zika, Brazil s unpreparedness and more, we refreshed our Olympics outlook in order to see any shifts in intent: Share of Weekday Travel Departure Q2 Increase in Travel Intent to Rio for the Olympics from Q1 SHORT-HAUL 15% 10% 11% 15% 25% 14% 9% LONG-HAUL 15% 11% 13% 15% 22% 14% 10% US Brazil UK Italy Canada Germany Australia Japan Spain Netherlands 18% 105% 110% 13% 35% 24% 48% 130% 56% 54% Share of Weekday Searches Change in Travel Intent to Rio January through June 2016 for Olympic Dates 100 = Monthly Average for Each Country 250 200 150 100 50 SHORT-HAUL 17% 17% 16% 15% 13% 11% 12% 0 Jan '16 Feb '16 Mar '16 Apr '16 May '16 Jun '16 US UK BRAZIL ITALY GERMANY JAPAN LONG-HAUL 16% 17% 16% 15% 14% 10% 12% Japan, UK, and Brazil continue to show strong intent as we get closer to the game. The US and Italy also show increasing interest, but are the laggards of the group. Seeing which origin markets aren t shying away from the Olympics should influence who you target for your own campaigns.
22 SOJERN.COM / SOLUTIONS@SOJERN.COM Q2 2016 GLOBAL TRAVEL INSIGHTS 23 What are the Q3 search trends for Europe? What are the Q3 search trends for Europe? SHORT-HAUL LONG-HAUL HIGH LOW Share of Weekday Travel Departure Palma de Mallorca Barcelona New York City Bangkok Los Angeles Ibiza Malaga Bali Miami SHORT-HAUL 19% 8% 9% 14% 25% 16% 9% LONG-HAUL 21% 10% 10% 14% 20% 15% 10% 52% 59% 1 Traveler 26% 23% 2 Travelers 22% 18% 3+ Travelers Share of Weekday Searches 32% 15% 30% 13% SHORT-HAUL 16% 16% 15% 14% 12% 11% 15% 14% 12% 24% 60% LONG-HAUL 16% 16% 15% 14% 12% 12% 16%
24 SOJERN.COM / SOLUTIONS@SOJERN.COM Q2 2016 GLOBAL TRAVEL INSIGHTS 25 City Search Patterns Compared: UK Spotlight Not all cities within the same country plan travel in the exact same way, but often travel advertisers take country-level approach to their marketing strategies. But this misses the nuances of city and region-specific trends, which are important to reaching the appropriate audience. In order to get more strategic, we looked at a city-level comparison of searches and bookings from the UK, one of the biggest outbound summer travel groups in Europe: Searching and Booking with Departures Until End of 2016 100 80 60 40 20 0 64% 54% 54% 53% 51% 58% 53% Birmingham Manchester Glasgow Liverpool 1 TRAVELER 2 TRAVELERS 3+ TRAVELERS Edinburgh Other What are the Q3 search trends for Middle East & Africa? SHORT-HAUL LONG-HAUL Cairo New York City Dubai Amman Istanbul Tel Aviv Paris Beirut Bangkok dominates for single travelers, followed by Edinburgh. Couple travel is biggest in Liverpool, and family travel (three or more) is most frequent in Birmingham. Understanding how each city travels, including popularity of party sizes, allows you to target your campaigns accordingly promoting more family deals to the Birmingham audience, for instance. DEPARTURE DAYS LEAD TIME The biggest day of departure across the UK is Friday in, for instance, 25% of departures take place then. As the UK is only a couple hours away from other European hubs, weekend city breaks are commonplace. Offering specials for these departures dates, or add-ons nearer to when people are leaving, are two great ways to make the most out of these timing trends. Looking very generally at lead times, and Birmingham stand out with tendencies towards last-minute travel, with 14% of their lead times fewer than seven days. A high population of business travelers in these big cities, coupled with a high propensity for city breaks, may be responsible for these standouts. 71% 64% 1 Traveler 11% 15% 2 Travelers 18% 21% 3+ Travelers DESTINATIONS Spain remains the most popular destination for UK travelers, but to varying degrees: Percentage of Travelers Looking to Destinations in Spain 19% 15% 16% 17% Birmingham 22% Liverpool 21% Glasgow 22% 22% 13% 17% Knowing your strongest markets, and where you are weaker, can help make sure your marketing efforts are strategically diversified. 46% 46%
26 SOJERN.COM / SOLUTIONS@SOJERN.COM Q2 2016 GLOBAL TRAVEL INSIGHTS 27 What are the Q3 search trends for Middle East & Africa? HIGH LOW Share of Weekday Travel Departure Tourism Trends in Middle East & Africa Turkey, Tunisia, and Egypt have each had terrorist attacks on major tourist destinations this year. We looked at travel trends to the Middle East and Mediterranean areas to see if travel trends have shifted as a result of the year s political instability. We see that Tunisia, Egypt, and Turkey are down in travel intent from last year, but other areas in the region are experiencing strong growth: Year-Over-Year Changes in Searches and Bookings for Global Travel Departure Month: July 16 SHORT-HAUL 14% 12% 13% 18% 21% 11% 11% LONG-HAUL 14% 11% 13% 19% 21% 10% 11% Share of Weekday Searches Bulgaria Crotia Cyprus Egypt France Greece Israel Italy Montenegro Morocco Portugal Spain Tunisia Turkey 14% 69% 39% -15% 64% 34% 24% 39% 36% 30% 97% 39% -9% -14% SHORT-HAUL 16% 16% 16% 15% 10% 12% 15% Looking at specific origin markets for the month of July gives a more nuanced understanding of the shifts: Germany, for instance, is showing a 93% increase in travel to Croatia, and a 19% increase for Cyprus. On the other hand, Germany has a 24% decrease in travel to Tunisia. The UK is bucking the global trends with an increase of 10% in travel to Tunisia during July. The decline in travel intent to Egypt is only 3% and the UK is showing great interest in Israel (33%) and Morocco (44%). Russia s weak ruble seems to be leading to a decline in travel across the board. Travelers there are only showing an increase in travel in five out of the 20 destinations, though Tunisia is one of them, showing a 35% increase. Middle East marketers need to take note of the changing shifts in markets. The UK still shows strong travel intent to the region, so should be marketed to differently than other origins. Though political unrest is impacting year-over-year trends, some origin markets haven t been significantly affected. Moreover, the region as a whole isn t experiencing a ripple effect, which is good news. LONG-HAUL 16% 16% 15% 14% 11% 13% 15%
28 SOJERN.COM / SOLUTIONS@SOJERN.COM Q2 2016 GLOBAL TRAVEL INSIGHTS 29 What are the Q3 search trends for Asia-Pacific? What are the Q3 search trends for Asia-Pacific? SHORT-HAUL LONG-HAUL HIGH LOW Share of Weekday Travel Departure Singapore Tokyo Paris Bangkok New York City Taipei Osaka Los Angeles Honolulu SHORT-HAUL 13% 9% 12% 16% 24% 17% 10% LONG-HAUL 14% 10% 12% 15% 22% 16% 10% 61% 68% 1 Traveler 22% 20% 2 Travelers 17% 12% 3+ Travelers Share of Weekday Searches 34% 18% 38% 22% SHORT-HAUL 16% 17% 16% 17% 13% 10% 11% 12% 17% 16% 43% LONG-HAUL 16% 16% 15% 15% 13% 12% 13%
30 SOJERN.COM / SOLUTIONS@SOJERN.COM Q2 2016 GLOBAL TRAVEL INSIGHTS 31 Singapore Formula One Grand Prix Preview The Singapore Grand Prix runs September 16-18 and an estimated 40,000 international tourists will pour into Singapore for the event. 2 In order to preview travel for the Grand Prix, we compared travel trends from the week of the race with the previous week. We see an increase in travel intent to Singapore during the event for most regions: Comparison of Travel Intent for the Week Leading Up to the Singapore Grand Prix to the Week Before Glossary Appendix Lead Time (Search or Booking): The length of time between a search or booking and departure date. Last-Minute Booker: A traveler that books a trip with seven days or less to travel. +19% Western Europe +104% East Asia Additional changes to Singapore travel trends include: +46% Oceania +41% UK Short-Haul & Long-Haul Trip: Short-haul is usually regional, while long-haul is usually inter-regional. Regional Coverage Sojern breaks down the world into regions and subregions as shown in the map below. Regions are shown with a colored background and subregions with a white background. A decline in Middle Eastern travelers of 63%. The Islamic Festival of Sacrifice (Eid al-adha) occurs in early September this year and many Middle Eastern travelers are headed to Singapore then. The decrease in intent for the Grand Prix is only because there were so many travelers visiting earlier. Although typically Singapore weekend travelers arrive on Friday and Saturday, for the Grand Prix, the most popular date of arrival is Thursday. Trip duration also changes with travelers looking for more 4-5 day trips, perhaps to see the race and the qualifying: North America Western Europe Europe Eastern Europe Central Asia Change in Race Week vs Week Before Central America Caribbean North Africa Middle East East Asia South Asia Asia-Pacific Southeast Asia 0 to 1 Days -12% Latin America Sub-Saharan Africa 2 to 3 Days 34% South America Middle East & Africa Oceania 4 to 5 Days 65% 6 to 7 Days -13% -38% -32% Marketing to Grand Prix tourists means knowing how their behavior differs. Consider offering more 5th night free deals in order to capitalize on travelers looking for a long weekend. Also, knowing that the UK is your biggest international destination market means honing in your ad spend to the region. Methodology Sojern s quarterly insights reports are based on the rigorous analysis of more than a billion traveler intent data points, obtained through Sojern s unique partnerships with some of the world s most renowned travel brands. Our analysis is based on airport level data which is then aggregated to countries and regions. All of the insights are based on very specific data sets as provided by Sojern's data partners. Sojern s data is rounded to the nearest whole number for readability and therefore not all charts and graphs will add up to 100%. Sojern never shares or distributes personally identifiable information (PII) such as names, emails, or addresses. The data provided is not a complete view of all global traveler information, as different data sources provide additional views of traveler behavior. 2 Balfour, Andrew. (July 19, 2015). Race Facts Singapore Grand Prix. F1 Destinations.
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