Tourism Trends, Outlook and Issues 6th UNWTO/PATA Forum on Tourism Trends and Outlook Guilin, China 11-13 October 212 day 1 John G.C. Kester Programme Manager, Tourism Trends and Marketing Strategies
World 211
Results 211 International Tourist Arrivals 99 million +5.% International Tourism Receipts US$ 1,3 billion (euro 74 bn) +3.9% (real terms) www.unwto.org/facts
Inbound tourism: World International tourist arrivals, 1995-211* (million) 11 US$ 1,3 bn 1 9 8 755 799 845 9 858 919 941 883 853 941 928 99 mn 7 6 5 4 3 2 Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) 693 674 673 684 744 625 586 62 679 56 634 528 533 476 485 457 466 437 436 443 43 International tourist arrivals (million) International tourism receipts (US$ billion) 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211*
% change over previous year International Tourism Arrivals and Receipts, World 11 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4-5 -6 '9/89 growth in receipts follows growth in arrivals closely '91/9 '92/91 International tourist arrivals '93/92 '94/93 '95/94 '96/95 Asian financial and economic crisis: receipts grew slower '97/96 '98/97 '99/98 '/99 '1/ 11S, SARS, economic downturn: receipts more affected International tourism receipts (local currencies, constant prices) '2/1 '3/2 '4/3 '5/4 '6/5 '7/6 Great recession : receipts more affected and slower to recover '8/7 '9/8 '1/9 '11*/1 Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
Asia and the Pacific 211
Inbound tourism: Asia and the Pacific 211 International tourist arrivals, 1995-211* (million) 35 3 US$ 289 bn 25 2 15 1 5 Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) 25 182 184 29 181 166 24 154 187 143 124 156 11 115 112 98 135 9 89 89 124 82 96 85 83 85 88 94 76 79 72 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211* 255 218 mn International tourist arrivals (million) International tourism receipts (US$ billion)
% change over previous year 28 26 24 22 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 -8-1 International Tourism Arrivals and Receipts Asia and the Pacific growth in receipts follows growth in arrivals closely International tourist arrivals International tourism receipts (local currencies, constant prices) Asian financial and economic crisis 11S, SARS, economic downturn Great recession '9/89 '91/9 '92/91 '93/92 '94/93 '95/94 '96/95 '97/96 '98/97 '99/98 '/99 '1/ '2/1 '3/2 '4/3 '5/4 '6/5 '7/6 '8/7 '9/8 '1/9 '11*/1 Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
Share 211 by region Asia and the Pacific, 218 mn, 22% Americas, 157 mn, 16% Africa, 5 mn, 5% Europe, 59 mn, 51% International Tourist arrivals Asia and the Pacific, 289 bn, 28% Middle East, 56 mn, 6% International Tourism Receipts Americas, 199 bn, 19% Africa, 33 bn, 3% Middle East, 46 bn, 4% Europe, 463 bn, 45%
Inbound tourism: Asia and the Pacific 211 Healthy growth in all sub regions 12 1 8 6 4 International tourist arrivals, 1995-211* (million) North-East Asia 11 11 98 92 86 78 68 61 61 58 6 62 62 52 53 47 46 48 46 49 41 39 41 36 35 28 3 32 29 28 112 South-East Asia 7 116 77 2 South Asia 8 9 9 8 9 1 1 1 9 11 11 11 11 11 11 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 8 8 1 1 1 1 12 Oceania 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29* 211* 13 12 Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
Inbound tourism: Asia and the Pacific 211 Healthy growth in all sub regions International tourism receipts, 1995-211* (US$ billion) 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 North-East Asia 1 12 86 75 65 58 South-East 6 56 Asia 54 46 39 42 42 44 35 35 35 36 31 31 33 35 27 29 25 27 28 29 32 34 34 25 24 26 26 2 2 14 16 15 13 14 14 14 16 Oceania 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 7 9 9 11 14 16 15 South Asia 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29* 211* 129 69 39 19 143 82 42 23 Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
212
International Tourist Arrivals, monthly evolution World (% change) 15 1 5 V-shape decline of 15 consecutive months of negative growth -5-1 -15 +2.1% -3.8% +6.6% +5.% +4.2% 28 29 21 211 212* Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
International Tourist Arrivals, monthly evolution World (million) 13 12 11 1 9 28 29 21 211 212* 8 7 6 5 4 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
Emerging destinations suffered less in the crisis and recovered quicker International Tourist Arrivals (% change) 1 8 9.3 8.2 6 4 4.4 5.1 5.1 5.2 4.9 4.7 3.8 2-2 -4-6 -.3-3.1-4.5 Advanced economies Emerging economies 7/6 8/7 9/8 1/9 11/1 12*/11 YTD Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
Asia and the Pacific 212
International Tourist Arrivals, monthly evolution Asia and the Pacific (% change) 25 2 15 1 V-shape decline of 12 consecutive months of negative growth 5-5 -1-15 +1.1% -1.6% +13.2% +6.4% +7.3% 28 29 21 211 212* Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
International Tourist Arrivals, monthly evolution Asia and the Pacific (million) 25 2 15 1 5 28 29 21 211 212* 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
211 and 212 year to date by subregion International Tourist Arrivals (% change over same period of the previous year) 12 1 8 6 4 5. 4.9 6 3 4 5 1 7 8 4 8 11 9 5 12 9 3 4 5 4 4 7 9 6 11 6 6 2 1 1 1-2 -4-6 -8 11/1 12*/11 January - June -7-1 World Northern Europe Western Europe Central/Eastern Europe Southern/Mediter. Eu. North-East Asia South-East Asia Oceania South Asia North America Caribbean Central America South America -9 North Africa Subsaharan Africa Middle East Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5-5 -1-15 International Tourism Expenditure (% change of same period year before, local currencies current prices) Germany United States C Major outbound markets BRICs are hot R B China United Kingdom France Canada Russian Federation Italy Japan Australia Belgium Brazil Singapore Netherlands Korea, Republic of 211 212* Hong Kong (China) Spain Norway Sweden Switzerland India Malaysia I
UNWTO Tourism Confidence Index
Confidence weakening but still positive UNWTO Panel of Tourism Experts: World 175 Better Equal Worse 15 125 1 75 5 25 Prospects (before) Evaluation (after) T 1 T2T 3 T 1 T2T 3 T 1 T2T 3 T 1 T2T 3 T 1 T2T 3 T 1 T2T 3 T 1 T2T 3 T 1 T2T 3 T 1 T2T 3 T 1 T2T 3 '3 '4 '5 '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
but on the rise again UNWTO Panel of Tourism Experts: Asia and the Pacific 175 Better Equal Worse 15 125 1 75 5 25 Prospects (before) Evaluation (after) T 1 T2T 3 T 1 T2T 3 T 1 T2T 3 T 1 T2T 3 T 1 T2T 3 T 1 T2T 3 T 1 T2T 3 T 1 T2T 3 T 1 T2T 3 T 1 T2T 3 '3 '4 '5 '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
Outlook
Outlook: World International tourist arrivals Forecast 212: 3% to 4% change (%) 12 1 8 6 4 2 7.9 2.9 1.3 5.9 5.7 6.5 2.1 6.6 5. -2-4 -6 -.1-1.2-3.8 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212* Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
Outlook: Asia and the Pacific International tourist arrivals Forecast 212: 4% to 6% 3 27.1 25 change (%) 2 15 1 5-5 -1-15 12.1 13.2 7.7 7.6 8. 9.7 4.7 6.4 1.1-1.6-9.5 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212* Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
Tourism Towards 23 Advance Edition: Key Results 5th UNWTO-PATA Forum on Tourism Trends and Outlook Guilin, China, 27 October 211 Michel Julian, UNWTO Tourism Trends and Marketing Strategies Programme
International tourist arrivals to reach 1.8 billion by 23 International tourism, World 2, International Tourist Arrivals, million 1.8 bn 1,75 1,5 1.4 bn 1,25 1 bn 1, 75 5 25 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 225 23 source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
Emerging economy destinations to surpass advanced destinations in 215 Inbound tourism, advanced and emerging economies 1,25 International Tourist Arrivals, million 1, emerging economies 75 5 advanced economies 25 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 225 23 source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
Asia and the Pacific will gain most of the new arrivals Inbound tourism by region of destination 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, 8 6 4 International Tourist Arrivals, million Africa Middle East Americas Asia and the Pacific Europe 2 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 225 23 source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
Asia and the Pacific
International tourist arrivals to increase by 17 million a year on average International Tourism, Asia and the Pacific International tourist arrivals, absolute change over previous year, million 35 3 25 2 15 1 5-5 -1 3 2 1 1 3 3 4 5 7 1 7 2 8 6 8 2 8-1 9 12 5 9 3 11 12 16 2-3 23 Average increase 21-23 17 million a year 21-22 15 mn a year 22-23 18 mn a year -15-12 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 225 23 source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
Asia and the Pacific : Intl tourist arrivals still to grow from 2 mn to over 5 mn International Tourism, Asia and the Pacific 6 International tourist arrivals, million 535 mn 5 4 355 mn 3 24 mn 2 1 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 225 23 Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
Asia and the Pacific by subregion Asia and thepacific: Inbound tourism by subregion of destination 3 International tourist arrivals, million North-East Asia 25 2 South-East Asia 15 1 5 South Asia Oceania 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 225 23 Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
South Asia subregion with fastest growth (%) International tourism by (sub)region of destination International tourist arrivals, average annual growth % 1 1995-21 21-23 1.5 8 7.5 7.7 7.4 6 6.6 6. 5.9 6.1 5.8 6.2 6.8 6.5 5.2 5.1 4.9 4.8 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.3 4 3.3 3.1 3.7 3.2 2 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.4 2. 2.1 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.3 South Asia West and Central Africa East Africa source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) Central America South-East Asia North-East Asia South America North Africa Middle East Southern Africa Central/Eastern Europe Oceania Southern/Mediter. Eu. Caribbean Western Europe Northern Europe North America
NE Asia subregion with fastest growth (abs.) International tourism by (sub)region of destination 1 International tourist arrivals, average absolute change over previous year, million 9.1 8 1995-21 21-23 6 5.9 4 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.4 4.1 3.1 3.4 2.8 2.5 2.8 2 1.2 2. 1.7.8.8 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.2.5.5.6.8.7.7.3.4.4.5.2.4 North-East Asia South-East Asia Southern/Mediter. Eu. source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) Middle East Central/Eastern Europe Western Europe North America South America North Africa East Africa South Asia Northern Europe Southern Africa West and Central Africa Central America Caribbean Oceania
North-East Asia will be the most visited subregion in 23 International tourism by (sub)region of destination 3 25 293 264 1995 21 23 International tourist arrivals, million 222 2 187 169 176 15 154 149 138 112 112 1 98 95 98 81 82 7 58 61 58 58 5 41 28 14 36 12 24 7 19 46 37 36 12 11 5 4 14 2 3 29 22 22 13 8 4 7 3 2 8 12 19 North-East Asia Southern/Mediter. Eu. Western Europe South-East Asia Central/Eastern Europe Middle East North America Northern Europe South America North Africa East Africa South Asia Caribbean Southern Africa Central America West and Central Africa Oceania source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
International tourism by (sub)region of destination 12 1 Europe continues to lead in international arrivals received per 1 of population 114 13 1995 21 23 International tourist arrivals received per 1 of population 8 81 8 71 62 63 65 6 47 48 47 47 46 4 42 38 4 38 2 15 25 27 9 9 22 28 32 19 8 8 15 28 6 12 27 21 21 26 7 18 3 4 6 13 2 4 7 3 1 2 1 2 Western Europe Southern/Mediter. Eu. Northern Europe Caribbean Central/Eastern Europe Middle East Southern Africa Oceania Central America North Africa South-East Asia North America North-East Asia South America East Africa West and Central Africa South Asia source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
Share in the world
Asia and the Pacific, the Middle East and Africa to increase their shares 198 Africa 3% Middle East 3% Americas 23% Asia and the Pacific 8% Americas 16% 21 Middle East 6% Asia and the Pacific 22% Europe 63% Africa 5% Americas 14% 23 Asia and the Pacific 3% Europe 51% Middle East 8% Africa 7% Europe 41%
Asia and the Pacific outbound tourism also growing at a faster pace Outbound tourism by region of origin International Tourist Arrivals, share, % 7 6 Europe 5 4 3 Asia and the Pacific 2 Americas 1 Middle East 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 225 23 Africa source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
Bulk of arrivals in Asia and the Pacific intraregional, mkt shares not to vary much Asia and the Pacific: Inbound tourism by region of origin International tourist arrivals, million 6 5 4 3 2 Africa Middle East Americas Europe Asia and the Pacific 1 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 225 23 Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
Tourism Towards 23 in one page Tourism Towards 23 shows that there is still a great potential for further expansion in coming decades; emerging as well as established destinations can benefit from this trend and opportunity, provided they shape the adequate conditions and policies with regard to business environment, infrastructure, facilitation, marketing and human resources Along with opportunities, challenges also arise in maximising social and economic benefits and minimising negative impacts Long-term tourism growth pattern: more moderate, sustainable and inclusive
Asia and the Pacific: how to make it possible Opportunities - natural resources - cultural resources - human resources - price competitiveness - large populations fuelling intrareg. travel - economic dynamism - travel facilitation - planning & product development Challenges - infrastructure development - congestion management - quality - marketing and promotion - e-marketing - image building and branding - coordination, cooperation, collaboration
International Tourist Arrivals received (million) UNWTO Tourism Towards 23: Actual trend and forecasts 195-23 1,8 1,6 Actual Forecasts 1.8 bn 1,4 1,2 1, 8 Africa Middle East Americas Asia and the Pacific Europe 94 mn 1.4 bn 6 4 2 195 196 197 198 199 2 21 22 23
Asia and the Pacific towards 23 million additional international tourist arrivals on average a year of the 43 million worldwide
Tourism towards 23 / Global Overview Thank you very much for your attention! World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) www.unwto.org