Laboratoire Mixte Internacionale GREATICE Glaciers and Water Resources in the Tropical Andes, Climatic and Environmental Indicators Phase I 2011-2014 (Results) Phase II 2016-2020 (Perspectives) Álvaro Soruco Luzmila Dávila
Front Variations Climate Forcing + Glacier Dynamics Mass Balance Variations Climatic Variations Number of glaciers
Key indicators of CLIMATE CHANGE Mountain Glaciers Water Resources (Soruco et al, 2015) 3
TROPICAL GLACIERS (Kaser, 1996) Región Superficie (km²) Superficie (%) Región Superficie (km²) Superficie (%) Perú 1972.0 71.3 Kilimanjaro 3.3 0.12 Bolivia 562.0 20.3 Ruwenzori 1.7 0.06 Ecuador 112.8 4.1 Mt Kenya 0.4 0.01 Colombia 108.5 3.9 Irian Jaya 3 0.11 Venezuela 2.7 0.1 Total 8.4 0.3 Total 2758 99.7 4
1.INTRODUCTION 2. OBJECTIVES 3. STUDIED SITES 4. METHODS 5. RESULTS IN BOLIVIA 6. RESULTS IN SOUTH AMERICA 7. CONCLUSIONS AND PERSPECTIVES 5
1991-1996 1997-2011 ZONGO Glacier CHACALTAYA Glacier 2011-2014 ZONGO Glacier CHACALTAYA Glacier CHARQUINI Glacier 2002 2016-2020 ZONGO Glacier CHARQUINI Glacier
The objectives of GREATICE were organized in 3 axes: Axe 1: The Glacier Evolution from the Little Ice Age (LIA) to present (people in charge: A. Rabatel y A. Soruco). GLACIOLOGICAL MASS BALANCE & glacier dynamics Axe 2: The glacier energy surface balance and climatic parameters (people in charge: J.E. Sicart y L. Maisincho). ENERGY BALANCE & MODELS Axe 3: The Impact of Glacier Decline on Water Resources (people in charge: M. Villacis y T. Condom). WATER RESOURCES & WATER MANAGEMENT
1.INTRODUCTION 2. OBJECTIVES 3. STUDIED SITES 4. METHODS 5. RESULTS IN BOLIVIA 6. RESULTS IN SOUTH AMERICA 7. CONCLUSIONS AND PERSPECTIVES 8
1.INTRODUCTION 2. OBJECTIVES 3. STUDIED SITES 4. METHODS 5. RESULTS IN BOLIVIA 6. RESULTS IN SOUTH AMERICA 7. CONCLUSIONS AND PERSPECTIVES 10
MASS BALANCE: gain and loss of mass from a glacier Equilibrium Line Altitude (ELA) Gain mass βn Accumulation >0 Area Ablation Area Loss mass βn<0 11
GLACIOLOGICAL METHOD: estimates de mass balance in a direct way Accumulation Zone Ablation Zone Paterson, 1994
HYDROLOGIC METHOD: estimates de mass balance in an indirect way.
GEODETIC METHOD: estimates de glacier volume change. Data acquisition Ground Control Points Aerotriangulation Photogrammetric restitution DEMs interpolation x y z y z x
1.INTRODUCTION 2. OBJECTIVES 3. STUDIED SITES 4. METHODS 5. RESULTS IN BOLIVIA 6. RESULTS IN SOUTH AMERICA 7. CONCLUSIONS AND PERSPECTIVES 15
Inventory of E. Jordan (1991) 1826 glaciers (592 km²) in 1975 Zongo 1991 1.8 km 2 Chacaltaya 1991 0.06 km 2 Charquini Sur 2001 0.35 km 2 80% of the glaciers has a Surface < 0.5km 2 16
Lost Surfaces = 48% (34 km²) Lost Surfaces = 35% (9.5 km²)
CHARQUINI GLACIERS (LIA-Present)
EVOLUTION OF TELATA GLACIER (HOLOCENO - LIA) 57 Moraines on Telata Glacier Holocene fluctuation (11 kyr BP). Rapid decline from 10.8 kyr a 8.5 kyr. Slow and regular decline from 8.5 kyr a LIA.
CHACALTAYA GLACIER (1991-2008) 1994 1996 2000 2003 B. Francou B. Francou B. Francou B. Francou 2005 2008 E. Ramirez P.Ginot
ZONGO GLACIER (1991 - Present) 0.13 m.w.e/yr 0.25 m.w.e/yr -0.91 m.w.e/yr -0.38 m.w.e/yr -0.84 m.w.e/yr
GEODETIC MASS BALANCE OVER 21 GLACIERS (1963-2006)
WATER RESSOURCES OF LA PAZ CITY
1.INTRODUCTION 2. OBJECTIVES 3. STUDIED SITES 4. METHODS 5. RESULTS IN BOLIVIA 6. RESULTS IN SOUTH AMERICA 7. CONCLUSIONS AND PERSPECTIVES 24
GLACIER FLUCTUATIONS OVER THE HOLOCENE RITACUBA Glacier, COLOMBIA (Antarctic Cold Reversal, ~14 kyr BP) Telata Glacier, BOLIVIA Jomelli et al., Nature, 2014 Jomelli et al., Nature, 2011
GLACIER FLUCTUATIONS FROM LIA 10 principal moraines of LIA (liquenometry, 14C, 10Be) Rabatel et al., Quat. Res., 2008 Jomelli et al., Palaeo3, 2009 Rabatel et al., Cryosphere, 2013
GLACIER FLUCTUATIONS OVER THE 20th CENTURY Rapid area loss from 1970 Rabatel et al., Cryosphere, 2013
CUMULATIVE GLACIER MASS BALANCE ON TROPICAL ANDES TWO Tendencies: (1) Glaciers with a maximum altitude < 5400 m Average tendency of -1,2 m w.e./yr (2) Glaciers with a maximum altitude > 5400 m Average tendency of -0,6 m w.e./yr Rabatel et al., Cryosphere, 2013
THE VARIABILITY OF THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE OF THE PACIFIC s The mass balance and the ENSO Particularly marker over the Inner Tropics (Ecuador, Colombia) Major events marked over the Outer Tropics (Peru, Bolivia) Rabatel et al., Cryosphere, 2013
1.INTRODUCTION 2. OBJECTIVES 3. STUDIED SITES 4. METHODS 5. RESULTS IN BOLIVIA 6. RESULTS IN SOUTH AMERICA 7. CONCLUSIONS AND PERSPECTIVES 31
CONCLUSIONS 1. All tropical glaciers are retreating from the late 1970. 2. The speed has not PRECEDENT FROM THE LIA. 3. Glaciers over > 5400ma.s.l. (with an accumulation zone) have lost -0.6 mw.e. yr 1 in the last 30 years. 4. Glaciers above < 5400ma.sl have lost -1.2mw.e. yr -1 (the double rhythm of glaciers > 5400ma.s.l.). 5. The annual variability of mass balances is high, however negative mass balances are more frequent than positive mass balances. 6. The variability of the SST of Pacific's is the main factor controlling de annual variability of mass balances 7. The radiation fluxes(sw), controls the energy balance at the glacier Surface during the summer. Solid precipitation controls the seasonal changes of the energy fluxes (SW /SW ). 8. The precipitation has not significate tendency over the tropical Andes (Temperature, has rise at 0,10ºC decade -1 in the last 70 years). 32
Perspectives: Almost all the climatic scenario's Project the rise in temperature in the coming years (ex. IPCC AR5) (Gerbaux et al., 2010) 1º Glacier monitoring 2º Glacier Models (Energy Balance + Glacier Dynamics) 3º Glaciers simulations Under new climatic scenario s