Expanding Capacity of the Panama Canal TRB 2006 Summer Conference La Jolla, California July 9-11, 2006 Rodolfo Sabonge Director, Corporate Planning and Marketing
We are all part of the Global Transportation System that sustains Globalization It only works well if all the pieces have enough capacity - we are all interdependent
World Seaborne Trade Shipping Trends Canal Traffic Long-Term Forecast Third Set of Locks Project
World Seaborne Trade Source: UNCTAD Review of Maritime Transport 2005
Million Tonne Miles World Seaborne Trade
Source: Clarksons Research, 2006
World Seaborne Trade Shipping Trends
Evolution of the world TEU carrying capacity 1980 2.91% 1990 17.51% 1.34% 26.35% 5.05% 1996 97.09% 81.15%.6M TEUs 1.6M TEUs 2.8M TEUs 68.60% June 2006 2011 (Including newbuildings on order) 33.49% 2.7M TEUs 37.34% 40.50% 4.9M TEUs 3.8M TEUs 3.4M TEUs 31.32% 29.17% 8.1M TEUs Source: Clarksons Reserach Other % TEUs Panamax % TEUs Post Panamax % 28.18% 12.1M TEUs
Port TEU movements 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Million TEUs 1985 1995 2005 transhipment empties full DVB/ Drewry
World Seaborne Trade Shipping Trends Canal Traffic
Average PCUMS Tonnage of Commercial Transits 4,832 9,931 18,940 22,064 FY 1955 FY1975 FY 1995 FY 2005
PCUMS Net Tons per Market Segment 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 (in millions - FY 2000-2006 / 2007 proj) 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 (estimate) (proj.) Containerships 32 36 37 44 45 49 55 65 79 86 98 131 153 Dry Bulk 76 82 73 72 72 66 61 57 50 53 55 58 61 Liquid Bulk 33 38 36 35 35 34 33 30 26 33 34 36 36 General Cargo 11 11 11 11 8 8 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 Reefers 18 18 18 15 16 15 16 16 17 18 19 19 19 Cruise 7 7 9 10 10 10 8 7 8 11 10 9 9 Vehicle carriers 24 22 21 22 26 32 33 35 37 37 36 37 35 Others 15 14 14 14 16 16 16 16 19 20 20 22 20
International Ports Connected through the Panama Canal Osaka Nagoya Shanghai Kwangyang Qingdao Pusan Tokyo Keelung Shimizu Yantian Yokohama Hong Kong Kobe Colombo Chabang Hakata Kaohsiung Singapore Brisbane Sydney Tanjung Priok Doniambo Melbourne Source: ACP and ComPairData, 2006 Seattle Oakland Los Angeles Long Beach Manzanillo (Mx) Auckland Bremerhaven Rotterdam Tilbury Felixstowe Hamburg Halifax Thamesport Dunkerque NJ/NY Boston Zeebrugge Wilmington Le Havre Newport News Antwerp Charleston Baltimore Port Said.. Miami Savannah New Orleans Everglades Marseilles Colon Veracruz Kingston Manzanillo La Spezia Puerto Limón Cartagena Maracaibo Balboa La Guaira Guanta Buenaventura Puerto Cabello Manta Guayaquil Callao Arica Santos Iquique Paranagua Coquimbo Itajai Antofagasta Valparaíso San Antonio San Vicente Tahiti Transit the Canal Feeder services that don t transit the Canal
55% Growth of Panamax Vessel Transits 100 (30.5m) + Beam FY1995 Projected FY2006 % of Total Transits 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 27.1% 3,695 30.1% 29.0% 30.7% 4,125 3,816 3,998 33.4% 4,128 35.4% 4,359 36.3% 4,424 40.4% 38.5% 4,566 4,737 42.6% 5,329 46.6% 44.5% 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Proj Fiscal Year 5,633 6,160
Main Factors Affecting Canal Capacity Visibility Restrictions Vessel in Locks Chamber Vessel Entering Gaillard Cut
< 80 BEAM Impact and Requirements by Vessel Type and Size Gatun Lockagein OneHour Requires 4 Locomotives Assisted by 3 Tugs 1 Pilot No Transit Restriction PANAMAX Gatun Lockage in 2 Hours Requires 6-8 Locomotives Assisted by 7-10 Tugs 2-3 Pilots Daylight one-way traffic through Gaillard Cut, and daylight transit through the locks of vessels 900 in length
Transits Requesting Reservation Slots 100% % of transits 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% Could not get reservation slot Transited with reservation 1.0% 2.5% 40.2% 41.1% 9.0% 11.6% 20.2% 18.0% 16.2% 31.0% 45.5% 47.1% 51.3% 55.1% 58.4% 59.7% 10% 0% Slots Available Per Year 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 up to march 21 21 21 21 21 22 24 march 2006
Average Canal Waters Time 45 40 40.0 With reservation Without reservation 37.4 37.9 Canal Waters Time (hrs) 35 30 25 20 15 17.2 33.9 16.7 26.7 15.6 33.0 16.1 16.2 28.6 16.4 16.5 34.5 16.0 10 5 Available Slots 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 21 21 21 21 21 21 22 24
World Seaborne Trade Shipping Trends Canal Traffic Long-Term Forecast
World Seaborne Trade Shipping Trends Canal Traffic Long-Term Forecast Third Set of Locks Project
Dimension of Vessels and Post Panamax Locks Existing Lock Post Panamax Conceptual Lock 4800 TEU 12000 TEU Length 305m (1,000 ) Ship length 294.3m (965 ) Length 427m (1,400 ) Ship length 385.8m (1,265 )
Containerships of more than 9,000 TEU on order Size 9,200 9,900 10,300 12,000 1 13,000+ L oa 336.7 349.0 347 366 382 L bp 321 333.4 331 * 366 B 45.6 45.6 46 49 54.2 H 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 T scant 15.0 15.0 14.5 14.5 15 GT 107,590 116,000 * * * dwt 110,590 118,000 * * * Rows 18 / 16 18 / 16 18 / 16 19 / 17 21 / 19 * Exact numbers not known 1 New Panamax
Water Saving Basins WSB 1 WSB 2 WSB 3
Pacific side lock alignment and access channel
CONCEPTUAL DESIGN OF THIRD SET OF LOCKS
Cost Estimates for the Project (in million U.S. dollars) Water Saving Basins New Locks 2,730 620 820 Access Channels for the new Locks Navigational Channels 290 260 Water Reservoir Improvements Inflation during construction Total Investment 530 5,250 Estimates include contingencies
Canal Expansion: A National Decision Approval by the Board of Directors. Approval by the Cabinet Council. Approval by the Legislative Assembly on-going. Citizens approval through a national referendum.
Expanding Capacity of the Panama Canal TRB 2006 Summer Conference La Jolla, California July 9-11, 2006 Rodolfo Sabonge Director, Corporate Planning and Marketing