Regional Safety Update Gerardo Hueto Assistant Director SFO ASPAC Singapore Aviation Safety Seminar March 2017 Accidents Update: As at 30 Sep 2016 1
Outline Statistics: Accidents and Precursors Safety Focus: Top Risks Addressing Risks
Safety Performance: All Accidents per Million Sectors Accidents Update: As of 13 Jan 2017
All Accident Rate for IOSA Operators vs. Non-IOSA (includes Jet & Turboprop aircraft) Period: 2012 to 2016
All Accident Rate per Region of Operator NAM 0.94 2016 1.17 2015 1.34 2011-2015 LATAM/CAR 2.80 2016 0.97 2015 2.64 2011-2015 As at 13 Jan 2017 EUR 1.25 2016 1.44 2015 1.99 2011-2015 World IATA Members 2016 1.61 1.54 2015 Accidents Update: 1.79 As at 301.25 Sep June 2016 2009 9.73 5 2011-2015 Issued 1 September 2009 2011-2015 2.25 1.35 AFI MENA 5.80 2016 1.22 2015 3.16 2011-2015 2.30 2016 7.36 2015 CIS 3.85 2016 3.19 2015 4.64 2011-2015 NASIA 0.19 2016 0.86 2015 0.77 2011-2015 ASPAC 2.05 2016 3.16 2015 2.94 2011-2015
All Accidents Overview 2016 (Jan Dec) As of: 13 January 2016 Total Accidents 65 Accidents with IATA Members 33 Total Jet Hull Losses 13 Total Turbo-Prop Hull Losses 8 Total Fatal Accidents 10 Fatalities 268
Safety Performance: Fatality Risk (Full-Loss Equivalents per Million Sectors)
NAM Fatality Risk per Region of Operator 0.09 2016 0.09 2015 0.13 2011-2015 LATAM/CAR 0.55 2016 0.43 2011-2015 As at 13 Jan 2017 EUR 0.11 2016 0.04 2011-2015 World IATA Members 2016 0.23 0.14 2015 Accidents Update: 0.10 As at 300.04 Sep June 2016 2009 2.03 8 2011-2015 Issued 1 September 2009 2011-2015 0.31 0.08 AFI MENA 1.16 2016 0.36 2011-2015 0.00 2016 0.80 2015 CIS 0.50 2016 1.77 2011-2015 NASIA 0.00 2016 0.16 2015 0.08 2011-2015 ASPAC 0.40 2016 0.16 2015 0.41 2011-2015
Jet Safety Performance: Fatality Risk (Full-Loss Equivalents per Million Sectors)
Jet Fatality Risk per Region of Operator NAM 0.00 2016 0.06 2011-2015 LATAM/CAR 0.70 2016 0.00 2011-2015 As at 13 Jan 2017 EUR 0.14 2016 0.03 2011-2015 World IATA Members 2016 0.14 0.10 2015 Accidents Update: 0.00 As at 300.00 Sep June 2016 2009 0.61 10 2011-2015 Issued 1 September 2009 2011-2015 0.12 0.06 AFI MENA 1.24 2016 0.11 2011-2015 0.00 2016 CIS 0.00 2016 1.32 2011-2015 NASIA 0.00 2016 0.00 2011-2015 ASPAC 0.00 2016 0.19 2011-2015
Turboprop Safety Performance: Fatality Risk (Full-Loss Equivalents per Million Sectors)
Turboprop Fatality Risk per Region of Operator NAM 0.50 2016 0.49 2015 0.45 2011-2015 LATAM/CAR 0.00 2016 1.70 2011-2015 As at 13 Jan 2017 EUR 0.00 2016 0.07 2011-2015 World IATA Members 2016 0.65 0.69 2015 Accidents Update: 0.55 As at 300.59 Sep June 2016 2009 3.43 12 2011-2015 Issued 1 September 2009 2011-2015 1.10 0.40 AFI MENA 0.00 2016 3.28 2011-2015 0.00 2016 1.62 2015 CIS 2.60 2016 3.96 2011-2015 NASIA 0.00 2016 5.11 2015 2.32 2011-2015 ASPAC 1.72 2016 0.68 2015 1.07 2011-2015
Fatality Risk Note: (1) The area of the bubble indicates the number of fatalities associated with the particular accident category, the value is displayed (2) Fatality Risk: number of full-loss equivalents per 1 million flights (3) Accidents not involving fatalities are displayed on this graph as black circles
Top Risks Focused on Fatalities Historic: Loss of Control In Flight (LOC-I) Controlled Flight Into Terrain (CFIT) Approach and Landing Accidents (ALAR) Emerging: Mid Air Collision (MID) Due to LHDs and TCAS RAs
Focus on LOC-I 2010: US CAST Airplane State Awareness After Colgan Accident Airplane state awareness defined in two categories: Attitude (roll and pitch angles and rates): often leads to LOC-I via unrecovered roll excursion Energy (airspeed, vertical speed, altitude, power setting, and configuration): often leads to LOC-I via unrecovered stall Joint Safety Analysis Team: Analysis of 18 events
Summary of Significant Themes Across All Events Formosa Airlines Saab 340 x x x x x x x 7 Korean Air 747-200F x x x x x x 6 Flash Airlines 737-300 x x x x x x x x 8 Adam Air 737-400 x x x x x x x x x x 10 Kenya Airways 737-800 x x x x x x x 7 Aeroflot-Nord 737-500 x x x x x x x x x x x 11 Gulf Air A320 x x x x x x 6 Icelandair 757-200 (Oslo) x x x x x x 6 Armavia A320 x x x x x x x 7 Icelandair 757-200 (Baltimore) x x x x x x x x x 9 Midwest Express 717 x x x x x x x 7 Colgan Air DHC-8-Q400 x x x x x x x x x x 10 Provincial Airlines DHC-8 x x x x x x x 7 Thomsonfly 737-300 x x x x x x x x 8 West Caribbean MD-82 x x x x x x x x x x 10 XL Airways A320 x x x x x x x x x 9 Turkish Airlines 737-800 x x x x x x x 7 Empire Air ATR-42 x x x x x x x 7 Overall 17 7 10 6 12 6 18 9 14 14 17 12
SE 192 Low Airspeed Alerting Incorporate existing service bulletins to install low airspeed aural alerting in the U.S. fleet SE 194 SOP Effectiveness and Adherence Review and update SOPs to align with latest CAST, manufacturer, and ICAO recommendations Assess and revise SOPs based on feedback from data monitoring programs SE 196 Enhanced Upset Recovery Training, Including Approach-to-Stall New approach-to-stall recovery procedures and realistic scenarios, including autoflight ON Upset prevention & recovery, including unreliable airspeed
SE 197 Training for Non-Normal Situations Focus on flying the airplane first SE 198 Scenario-Based Training for Go- Arounds Go-arounds for other than decision height Complicating factors (trim, light weight, entry into clouds) SE 199 Enhanced Crew Resource Management Focus on pilot monitoring duties http://www.skybrary.aero/index.php/portal:cast_se_plan
Rapid positive change is possible if these Safety Enhancement Initiatives are implemented IATA is promoting the implementation with airlines and ICAO Regional Aviation Safety Groups APRAST PARAST MIDRAST
Thank You
Accident List 2016 Month Region Operator A/C Type Propulsion Severity Fatality IATA IOSA Jan EUR West Atlantic Sweden CRJ200 Jet HL 2 - - Jan LATAM Passaredo Transportes Aereos ATR72 Turboprop SD - - - Jan MENA Zagros Airlines MD-80 Jet HL - - - Feb LATAM GOL Linhas Aereas B737-800 Jet SD - Yes Yes Mar NAM UPS Airlines B767-300 Jet SD - Yes Yes Mar ASPAC True Aviation Bangladesh An-26 Turboprop HL 3 - - Mar ASPAC Aircraft Sales & Services B1900 Turboprop SD - - - Mar LATAM TAM A321 Jet SD - Yes Yes Mar MENA Flydubai B737-800 Jet HL 62 Yes Yes Mar EUR Cityjet RJ-85 Jet SD - Yes Yes Mar NAM JetBlue Airways E190 Jet SD - Yes Yes Mar CIS Halyk Air F100 Jet SD - No No
Accident List 2016 Month Region Operator A/C Type Propulsion Severity Fatality IATA IOSA Apr EUR Air Vallee F50 Turboprop SD - No No Apr LATAM TAME E190 Turboprop SD - Yes Yes Apr NAM EVAS Air Charters B1900 Turboprop SD - No No Apr ASPAC Batik Air B737-800 Jet SD - No No May EUR Turkish Airlines B737-800 Jet SD - Yes Yes May NASIA MIAT - Mongolian Airlines B737-800 Jet SD - Yes Yes May NAM American Airlines A321 Jet SD - Yes Yes May EUR Air France A320 Jet SD - Yes Yes May MENA EgyptAir A320 Jet HL 66 Yes Yes May CIS Silk Way Airlines An-12 Turboprop HL 7 - - May ASPAC Korean Air B777-300 Jet SD - Yes Yes May MENA Saudia A320 Jet SD - Yes Yes May EUR Vueling Airlines A320 Jet SD - Yes Yes
Accident List 2016 Month Region Operator A/C Type Propulsion Severity Fatality IATA IOSA Jun AFI South Supreme Airlines An-30 Turboprop SD - No No Jun NAM UPS MD-11 Jet HL - Yes Yes Jun CIS Ayk Avia An-32 Turboprop HL - No No Jun MENA Mahan Air BAE146 Jet SD - Yes Yes Jun ASPAC Air India A319 Jet SD - Yes Yes Jun AFI Busy Bee Congo Do228 Turboprop SD - No No Jun ASPAC Singapore Airlines B777-300 Jet HL - Yes Yes Jul ASPAC Nok Air DHC8-400 Turboprop SD - No No Jul EUR Germania A321 Jet SD - Yes Yes Jul MENA Royal Air Maroc ATR72 Turboprop SD - Yes Yes Aug MENA Emirates Airlines B777-300 Jet HL - Yes Yes Aug EUR ASL Airlines Hungary B737-400 Jet HL - No No Aug ASPAC T was Air B737-800 Jet SD - Yes Yes
Accident List 2016 Month Region Operator A/C Type Propulsion Severity Fatality IATA IOSA Aug CIS Krasavia Yak-42 Jet SD - No No Aug CIS Aviastar-TU Tu-204 Jet SD - No No Aug NAM Southwest Airlines B737-700 Jet SD - No No Sep ASPAC Trigana Air Service B737-300 Jet HL - No No Sep MENA Iran Air F100 Jet SD - Yes Yes Sep NAM Commutair DHC8-200 Turboprop SD - No Yes Sep ASPAC Yeti Airlines Jetstream 41 Turboprop SD - No No Sep ASPAC Cebu Pacific Airlines ATR72 Turboprop SD - No No Sep MENA Iran Air A310-300 Jet SD - Yes Yes Sep LATAM Southern Air Charter B1900 Turboprop SD - No No Oct EUR Vueling Airlines A320 Jet SD - Yes Yes Oct CIS Polar Airlines An-26 Turboprop HL - No No Oct LATAM Sterna Linhas Aereas A300 Jet SD - No No
Accident List 2016 Month Region Operator A/C Type Propulsion Severity Fatality IATA IOSA Oct EUR White Airways ATR72 Turboprop SD - Yes Yes Oct LATAM FlyMex 328JET Jet SD - No No Oct AFI Ethiopian Airlines DHC8-400 Turboprop HL - Yes Yes Oct NAM American Airlines B767-300 Jet HL - Yes Yes Oct NAM FedEx DC-10 Jet HL - Yes Yes Oct ASPAC Trigana Air Services DHC-4T Turboprop HL 4 No No Nov NAM American Airlines B737-800 Jet SD - Yes Yes Nov LATAM LAMIA Bolivia RJ-85 Jet HL 71 No No Dec NAM Key Lime Air Metro III Turboprop HL 1 No No Dec ASPAC Pakistan International Airlines ATR 42 Turboprop HL 47 Yes Yes Dec MENA Safi Airways B737-400 Jet SD - Yes Yes Dec EUR SAS CRJ900 Jet SD - Yes Yes Dec LATAM Aerosucre Colombia B727-200 Jet HL 5 No No
Accident List 2016 Month Region Operator A/C Type Propulsion Severity Fatality IATA IOSA Dec ASPAC Wings Air ATR72 Turboprop SD - No No