HelmsBriscoe Meeting Industry Trends 2011 September 10, 2010
Agenda HelmsBriscoe Overview Market Conditions Key Meeting Industry Trends Q&A
HB By the Numbers The largest meetings procurement firm in the world Contracted >$1.1 billion in group room revenue over the past 2 years Placed over 6.5 million room nights over the past 2 years Contract over 21,000 meetings annually Annually delivers more than $1 billion in gross meeting spend to the hospitality community Global presence with 1,150+ associates in over 35 countries Business Mix: 72% Corporate/Incentive 18% Association 10% Government/Other
Cancun Production
% Revenue Per City Percentage Revenue Per City 2010 2.60% 11.00% 14.00% 0.93% 2.70% 0.64% 0.48% 3.60% 0.40% 6.40% 0.47% 57.00% Cabo San Lucas Cancun Los Cabos Mexico City Nuevo Vallarta Playa del Carmen Puerto Jurez Puerto Morelos Puerto Vallarta Rivera Nayarit San Jose del Cabo Solidaridad
Destination Partner Cancun is a Preferred Partner with HelmsBriscoe As of July, 2010 December, 2011 Unique access to associates Exposure via marketing, events & education Host of MOMs conference November, 2010 HBs ABC in January, 2011 January 5-7, 2011 - Gaylord National
Market Conditions
Contrary to popular belief, the global economy is in recovery
GDP has rebounded around the world Global GDP Change 4.0% 3.3% 2.4% 3.1% 3.5% 1.4% 0.5% (0.5%) (2.0%) (3.4%) (3.0%) 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q10 2Q10 Source: Oxford Economics
And consumers are buying more Global Private Consumption Change 3.1% 2.4% 1.7% 2.2% 2.4% 1.1% 1.1% 0.4% 0.2% (0.9%) (0.5%) 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q10 2Q10 Source: Oxford Economics
Total retail spending now at pre-recession recession levels, except in Japan and the US. Retail Spending Monthly--Last Six Months Indexed to 2007 140 Brazil Canada France Germany Japan Mexico UK US 130 120 110 100 2007 Level 90 80 70 60 Source: Oxford Economics
Business confidence continues to rise while its rate of growth has slowed considerably Business Confidence Last Six Months Year-Over-Year Change 50 Brazil Canada France Germany Japan Mexico UK US 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Source: Oxford Economics
Hotel performance is on the rise & increasing occupancy is driving recovery Global Industry RevPAR Change Constant USD Year-Over-Year Change 15% 10% 5% 0% (5%) (10%) Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Source: STR Global; Smith Travel Research OCC Chg ADR Chg RevPAR Chg
But overall occupancy is still well below pre-recession recession levels Occupancy By Region July YTD Last Four Years (2007 2010) 75% Australasia Greater China Europe Middle East & Africa South America North America Global 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% Source: STR Global, Smith Travel Research
Most key countries have increasing occupancy, but most well below 2007 Occupancy By Selected Countries July YTD Last Four Years (2007 2010) 85% Brazil Canada China France Germany Japan Mexico UAE UK US 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% Source: STR Global, Smith Travel Research
Last year s US occupancy was the lowest since the early 1970s US Occupancy July YTD 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 Source: PWC; Smith Travel Research
The US has sold about the same number of rooms as it did prior to the recession US Industry Rooms Sold Last Three Months Ending July YTD Millions 280 281 285 281 285 274 270 258 263 262 266 261 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20 2010 Source: STR Global
After declining for a record 17-months average rates are beginning to rise Global Industry Average Rate Change Constant USD 2.7% 3.5% 0.5% (0.5%) (2.3%) (2.0%) (5.8%) Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Source: STR Global
Average rates are still depressed in most countries Average Rate By Selected Countries July YTD Last Four Years (2007 2010) $350 Brazil Canada China France Germany Japan Mexico UAE UK US $300 $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 $0 Source: STR Global, Smith Travel Research
Over the last three months, nearly all segments posted gains in average rate Global Industry Performance By Industry Segments Last Three Months Ending July 2010 Luxury 15.5% Upper Upscale 9.8% Upscale 10.6% Midscale With 7.4% Midscale Without 6.5% Economy 4.6% (5%) 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% OCC ADR Source: Smith Travel Research
Occupancy has been strong across most segments, especially over the past three months Global Industry Occupancy By Industry Segments Last Three Months Ending July 2010 Luxury 65.4% Upper Upscale 71.0% Upscale 69.2% Midscale With 62.9% Midscale Without 65.6% Economy 60.3% Source: Smith Travel Research
The growth in demand is the result of increasing transient and group business US Upper Tier Demand Change By Consumer Segment 28-Day Moving Average 30% 20% 10% 0% (10%) (20%) (30%) (40%) J- F- M- A- M- J- J- A- S- O- Group N- D- D- Transient J- 10 F- 10 M- 10 A- 10 M- 10 J- 10 J- 10 A- 10 Source: Smith Travel Research
Average rate is now rising for both group and transient US Upper Tier Average Rate Change By Consumer Segment 28-Day Moving Average 10% 5% 0% (5%) (10%) (15%) (20%) J- F- M- A- M- J- J- A- S- O- Group N- D- D- Transient J- 10 F- 10 M- 10 A- 10 M- 10 J- 10 J- 10 A- 10 Source: Smith Travel Research
The last three months have seen many key cities at near sell-out levels Houston Mexico City Atlanta Orlando Beijing Miami Dubai Sao Paulo Montreal Los Angeles Chicago Tokyo Berlin Toronto Shanghai Rome Washington Boston Hong Kong Sydney San Fran Singapore New York London Occupancy By Selected Markets Last Three Months Ending July 2010 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Source: Smith Travel Research
In the last three months, nearly all key cities had an increase in ADR Dubai Atlanta Houston Orlando Chicago Rome Boston Miami Washington Los Angeles San Fran Sydney Beijing Tokyo Mexico City Toronto Sao Paulo Montreal Berlin London New York Singapore Hong Kong Shanghai Average Rate Change By Selected Markets Last Three Months Ending July 2010 (10%) (5%) 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Source: Smith Travel Research
Outlook
The road ahead is still likely to be rough
Global and US leading indicators have flattened or declined - soft patch ahead Economic Leading Indicators 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 Oct-08 Dec-08 Feb- Apr- Jun- Aug- Oct- Dec- Feb-10 Apr-10 Jun-10 Global US Source: Global data from Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD); US data from Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
Not surprisingly, travel intentions also appear to be slowing US Travel Intentions Diffusion Index, 4-Week Moving Average 58% 56% 54% 52% 50% 48% 46% 44% 42% Nov-08 Feb- May- Aug- Nov- Feb-10 Jun-10 Business Leisure Source: US Travel Association
Economic growth is expected to strengthen in 2011 and 2012 GDP Change Annual Percentage Change 12% Australia Canada China France Germany Japan Mexico UK US 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2010 2011 2012 Source: Oxford Economics
Summary Occupancy levels remain weak around the world but improving ADR is beginning to recover Continued volatility of airline industry A more difficult second half of the year may be in store A 1 in 4 chance of a US double-dip recession Odds are greater for another European recession Solid overall long-term economic and industry recovery Stronger 2011 Much stronger 2012
Key Meeting Industry Trends
General Industry Trends Shorter meeting length of stay Shorter booking windows Increase of multi-year contracts Larger cities stealing share from smaller cities Aggressive destinations buying conventions International Subventions Growth of 3 rd Parties The Big Three = $2 billion+ meeting spend Greening of meetings impacting buying decisions Corporate social responsibility impacting buying decisions Technology resources and access Prevalence of social technology use at meetings Streaming video Internet access
Corporate & Incentive Segment Trends Shift to Strategic Meeting Management/Procurement Maxvantage = Amex + Maritz Experient HelmsBriscoe Industry focus on SMM NBTA, PCMA, MPI Shorter booking windows Smaller incentive meetings with less flash More individual incentives vs. group AIG affect still alive but waning Focus on ROI/ROO/ROM Security is a BIG issue
Association Segment Trends Declining Membership - Lack of Growth - Decreased Retention - Impact of generationals Reduced Attendance at Meetings Focus on bottom line Reduced sponsorship Declining exhibitor attendance Redesign of exhibition formats - Shorter/smaller shows - Appointment driven - Hosted buyer model Increased outsourcing of core services Security is an issue
Tradeshow Trends 2010 Exhibitor Trends Survey Champion Exh. Scvs. 81 percent of exhibitors sending fewer staff to trade shows, reducing the number of events as well as downsizing booth space Exhibitors are adopting and seeking new engagement points from show organizers including year round promotion, virtual events, and online tools for attendees While impact of the recession has been far reaching, exhibitors remain committed to trade shows, and are planning to increase trade show investments when the economy recovers www.championexpo.com
Tradeshow Trends Niche shows and hosted buyer/appointment driven shows on the rise i.e.: Connect (Association) Rejuvenate (Religious) TEAMS (Sports) New shows AIBTM June, 2011 Baltimore IMEX AM October, 2011 Las Vegas IT&ME future in doubt NBTA more group & procurement focus (SMM) MPI tradeshows in flux Increase in co-locations i.e. PCMA & AIBTM MPI & IMEX AM
Meeting Planners Intention Survey June There is a net increase in the number of off-site meetings planners' expect to book in 2010 and 2011 versus 20 There is a net increase in expected attendance at off-site meetings in 2010 and 2011 versus 20 Professional meeting planners are less concerned about the negative publicity associated with hosting meetings in upscale properties/destinations, although there is still a palpable level of concern about booking resorts and cruise ships.
Potential Intl. Destinations
Meeting Planners Intention Survey www.pcma.org/resources/research/meetingplannersintentionssurvey.htm
Q & A
Thank you David Peckinpaugh dpeckinpaugh@helmsbriscoe.com 858-385-2710