Global Airline Trends and Impacts International Aviation Issues Seminar December 2017, Washington D.C. Oliver Lamb Managing Director 1
Around the world in 45 minutes Financial Performance Canada Mexico Latin America and the Caribbean Trans-Atlantic Asia Pacific 2
3 Financial Performance
Major airlines fortunes have trended positively over the past 5 years AIRLINE NET PROFIT (LOSS), 2012-2016 Millions of USD Country/Region Select Airline Group 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 US American Airlines Group Inc. -$1,239 -$1,233 $2,882 $7,610 $2,676 Delta Air Lines Inc. $1,009 $10,540 $659 $4,526 $4,373 United Continental Holdings Inc. -$723 $571 $1,132 $7,340 $2,263 Canada Air Canada Group -$132 $9 $83 $232 $672 Europe Deutsche Lufthansa AG $1,624 $419 $62 $1,911 $2,012 International Airlines Group (IAG) -$921 $197 $1,124 $1,708 $2,220 Air France-KLM S.A. -$1,614 -$2,435 -$242 $141 $714 Latin America LATAM Airlines Group S.A. -$523 -$281 -$110 -$219 $69 Asia Pacific Japan Airlines Co., Ltd. 1 $1,723 $1,533 $1,234 $1,610 $1,469 Cathay Pacific Group $138 $374 $445 $813 -$35 Singapore Airlines Group 2 $182 $203 $295 $493 $453 Qantas Group 3 $5 -$2,404 $409 $774 $663 Total -$471 $7,493 $7,973 $26,939 $17,549 1 Japan Airlines Co., Ltd. financial year ends in March each year 2 Singapore Airlines Group financial year ends in March each year 3 Qantas Group financial year ends in June each year Source: CAPA 4
However, jet fuel price escalation portends dark clouds for ongoing global growth JET FUEL, SPOT PRICE FOB USD per gallon $1.90 $1.70 +78% $1.66 $1.50 $1.30 $1.10 $0.90 $0.93 $0.70 $0.50 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Source: Ailevon Pacific Aviation Consulting analysis; EIA.gov 5
North America is expected to continue leading financial performance among all global regions AIRLINE NET PROFIT BY REGION, 2012 2017 FORECAST Billions of USD $25 North America Europe Asia-Pacific Latin America $20 $15 $10 $5 $- $(5) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F Source: ICAO revised data 2013-2015, IATA Estimates for 2013-2016. IATA forecast for 2017 6
7 Canada
Canada: A rebounding Trans-Border market GROWTH IN UNITED STATES-CANADA ORIGIN-DESTINATION DEMAND, 2013-2017 Change in thousands of visitors U.S. visitors to Canada to strong growth in the Canadian and U.S. economies +645 +677 Canadian visitors to the U.S. +183 +324 +258 +223 +296 +375-93 From the doldrums of the Canadian economic slowdown -400 YE Sep 2013 YE Sep 2014 YE Sep 2015 YE Sep 2016 YE Sep 2017 Source: Statistics Canada; Ailevon Pacific Aviation Consulting analysis 8
Almost all Canadian regions show positive growth UNITED STATES-CANADA ORIGIN-DESTINATION DEMAND GROWTH BY CANADIAN REGION, YE SEPTEMBER 2017 VS YE SEPTEMBER 2016 Percent growth 7% 4% 4% 3% 2% British Columbia Quebec Atlantic Ontario Alberta Prairie -1% Source: IATA AirportIS; Ailevon Pacific Aviation Consulting analysis 9
Similarly the U.S. is growing rapidly, led by the West UNITED STATES-CANADA ORIGIN-DESTINATION DEMAND GROWTH BY U.S. REGION, YE SEPTEMBER 2017 VS YE SEPTEMBER 2016 Percent growth 7% 7% 5% 5% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% California Texas Hawaii New England Midwest South Pacific Northwest Mountain Mid-Atlantic Source: IATA AirportIS; Ailevon Pacific Aviation Consulting analysis 10
Rapid growth by Air Canada and WestJet has seen Canadian carriers dominate the Trans-Border market CARRIER SHARE OF U.S.-CANADA O&D DEMAND YE SEP 2017 Percent of total passengers U.S.-CANADA SEAT CAPACITY GROWTH, 2013-2017 Percent growth in seat capacity Other Carriers, 8% 49% WestJet, [VALUE] Air Canada, [VALUE] 20% 11% US Big Three, 36% -8% -36% Air Canada WestJet Industry Total US Big Three Other Carriers Source: IATA AirportIS; Ailevon Pacific Aviation Consulting analysis 11
But here comes the American(s) UNITED STATES-CANADA SEAT CAPACITY GROWTH, FIRST NINE MONTHS OF 2018 VS SAME PERIOD IN 2017 Percent growth in seat capacity 13% 5% 3% 2% -3% -5% -5% Source: DiioMi; Ailevon Pacific Aviation Consulting analysis 12
13 Mexico
The North America-Mexico market continues to grow NORTH AMERICA-MEXICO ORIGIN-DESTINATION DEMAND, YE SEP 2012-YE SEP 2017 Thousands of passengers per day each way CAGR =10% 43 27 29 32 36 39 YE Sep 2012 YE Sep 2013 YE Sep 2014 YE Sep 2015 YE Sep 2016 YE Sep 2017 Source: IATA AirportIS; Ailevon Pacific Aviation Consulting analysis 14
However, this growth conceals falling Mexican visitation to the United States GROWTH IN MEXICAN INBOUND VISITORS TO THE U.S. BY MONTH, 2017 Change in thousands of visitors +20-93 -109-55 -37-178 -236-236 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Source: Ailevon Pacific Aviation Consulting analysis, US Government National Travel and Tourism Office 15
On the other hand, Mexican visitation to Canada is on the rise with especially strong growth since the beginning of this year MEXICAN INBOUND VISITORS TO CANADA, JAN 2015 SEP 2017 Thousands of Mexican visitors, rolling 12 months +35% in 9 months 351 +43% in 2 years 259 181 Sep-17 Aug-17 Jul-17 Jun-17 May-17 Apr-17 Mar-17 Feb-17 Jan-17 Dec-16 Nov-16 Oct-16 Sep-16 Aug-16 Jul-16 Jun-16 May-16 Apr-16 Mar-16 Feb-16 Jan-16 Dec-15 Nov-15 Oct-15 Sep-15 Aug-15 Jul-15 Jun-15 May-15 Apr-15 Mar-15 Feb-15 Jan-15 Source: Ailevon Pacific Aviation Consulting analysis, Statistics Canada 16
U.S. visitation to Mexico has followed in line with a strengthening USD US VISITORS TO MEXICO BY AIR AND MONTHLY EXCHANGE RATE, 2013-2016 $1 USD equivalent of Mexican Peso (column), Millions of US visitors (line) $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 $0 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 Exchange Rate US visitors May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Source: Ailevon Pacific Aviation Consulting analysis; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; US Government National Travel and Tourism Office 17
Network carrier share is being eroded by growth from LCC and leisure carriers NORTH AMERICA-MEXICO SEAT CAPACITY SHARE Percent of total seats NOTH AMERICA-MEXICO SEAT CAPACITY GROWTH, 2017 VS 2016 Growth in thousands of one-way seats(column), percent growth (scatter) Hybrid Carriers, 10% LCCs and Leisure Carriers, [VALUE] 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 22% 6% 25% 20% 15% Network Carriers, 60% 600 400 200 6% 10% 5% Network Carriers: US Big Three, Air Canada, Aeromexico LCC (including ULCC): Volaris, Interjet, VivaAerobus, Southwest, Spirit, Sun Country, Frontier Leisure Carriers: Air Transat, Sunwing Hybrid Carriers: JetBlue, Alaska, WestJet 0 LCCs and Leisure Network Carriers Hybrid Carriers 0% Source: Ailevon Pacific Aviation Consulting analysis; Diio Mi 18
Looking ahead in 2018, a majority of the carriers in this market will continue to expand, led by LCCs NORTH AMERICA-MEXICO SEAT CAPACITY GROWTH RATE, FIRST NINE MONTHS OF 2018 VS SAME PERIOD IN 2017 Percent growth 47% 25% 23% 22% 22% 19% 16% 13% 11% 11% 7% 4% 3% 3% 0% -3% Source: DiioMi; Ailevon Pacific Aviation Consulting analysis 19
20 Latin America and the Caribbean
Capacity to South America has been impacted by the economic downturn in the region, but is it turning the corner? NORTH AMERICA-SOUTH AMERICA SEAT CAPACITY GROWTH IN QUANTITY AND PERCENTAGE, 2013-2017 Growth in thousands of one-way seats (column), percent growth (line) 1,000 800 +[VALUE] YOY Growth Quantity YOY Growth Rate 12.0% 10.0% 600 8.0% 400 200 +[VALUE] +[VALUE] +[VALUE] 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0 0.0% (200) (400) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017-2.5% -2.0% -4.0% Source: DiioMi; Ailevon Pacific Aviation Consulting analysis 21
Brazil South America s largest economy is driving the turnaround NORTH AMERICA-BRAZIL SEAT CAPACITY GROWTH IN QUANTITY AND PERCENTAGE, 2013-2017 Growth in thousands of one-way seats (column), percent growth (line) YOY Growth Quantity 600 400 200 +[VALUE] +8.0% +2.6% YOY Growth Rate +[VALUE] 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0-200 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -400-15.0% -600-800 -19.9% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017-20.0% -25.0% Source: Ailevon Pacific Aviation Consulting analysis, DiioMi 22
Yields in this once-troubled market shows signs of a rebound in 2017 YIELDS OF U.S.-BRAZIL OD MARKET, YE SEP 2013 YE SEP 2017 USD per revenue passenger mile $0.14 $0.13 $0.12 Brazil entered into economic recession in 2014 Brazilian GDP declined by 3.8% in 2015 OECD forecasts a GDP growth rate of 0.7% for 2017 $0.11 $0.10 $0.09 GDP continued to decline by 3.6% in 2016 $0.08 $0.07 $0.06 YE Sep 2013 YE Sep 2014 YE Sep 2015 YE Sep 2016 YE Sep 2017 American Delta LATAM Brasil United Source: Ailevon Pacific Aviation Consulting analysis; IATA AirportIS 23
Negative growth in the Caribbean for the first 9 months of 2018 following the hurricanes this year NORTH AMERICA-LATIN AMERICA SEAT CAPACITY GROWTH RATE, 2014 FIRST NINE MONTHS OF 2018 Percent growth 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 7.1% 8.5% 3.2% 5.5% 5.2% 5.7% 3.7% 4.2% 3.6% Caribbean Central America South America 6.0% 5.3% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% 0.5% -0.5% -2.5% -3.7% 2014 2015 2016 2017 First nine months of 2018 Source: DiioMi; Ailevon Pacific Aviation Consulting analysis 24
25 Trans-Atlantic
The Trans-Atlantic market continues its steady growth up 19% since the start of 2015 NORTH AMERICA-EUROPE ORIGIN DESTINATION DEMAND, Q1 2015 Q3 2017 Thousands of passengers per day each way, rolling 4 quarters 81 82 84 85 86 87 89 90 91 94 96 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Source: IATA AirportIS; Ailevon Pacific Aviation Consulting analysis 26
Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 This growth is driven by strong growth in US outbound demand to Europe US OUTBOUND VISITORS TO EUROPE 2014-2016 Millions of US visitors, rolling 12 months +2.2M in 3 years [VALUE] M [VALUE] M Sources: Ailevon Pacific Aviation Consulting analysis, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, US Government National Travel and Tourism Office 27
However, concerns over European POS emerge due to current political and economic climate EUROPEAN INBOUND VISITORS TO THE U.S., Q1 2014 Q2 2017 Millions of European visitors, rolling 4 quarters Q1 2014 to Q1 2016: European visitors to the US increased by more than 3 million despite Euro s 20% depreciation against USD 13.6 14.2 14.4 14.7 15.2 15.7 15.8 15.4 Q1 2016 to Q2 2017: European visitors to the US dropped by 9% amid Brexit and a new protectionist administration in the US 15.0 14.7 14.4 14.5 13.0 12.3 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Sources: Ailevon Pacific Aviation Consulting analysis, Federal Reserve of St. Louis, US Government National Travel and Tourism Office 28
Trans-Atlantic capacity continues to grow, albeit at a slower pace than in 2016 NORTH AMERICA-EUROPE SEAT CAPACITY GROWTH, 2014-FIRST NINE MONTHS OF 2018 Percent growth 7.5% Norwegian = 32% of growth Icelandic carriers = 14% Air Canada = 7% 6.3% 5.3% 5.6% 5.7% 2014 2015 2016 2017 First nine months of 2018 Source: DiioMi; Ailevon Pacific Aviation Consulting analysis 29
Trans-Atlantic alliance growth is also positive in 2018 NORTH AMERICA-EUROPE SEAT CAPACITY GROWTH RATE, FIRST NINE MONTHS OF 2018 VS SAME PERIOD IN 2017 Percent growth 4.3% 3.5% 2.9% Source: DiioMi; Ailevon Pacific Aviation Consulting analysis 30
31 Asia Pacific
China is set to surpass Japan and become the biggest OD market in the Asia Pacific region in the coming years NORTH AMERICA - ASIA PACIFIC O&D MARKET SHARE BY COUNTRY, YE SEP 2017 Percent of total 5 YEAR GROWTH RATE OF NORTH AMERICA-ASIA PACIFIC O&D MARKET, YE SEP 2017 VS YE SEP 2013 Percent Growth 56% Others 32.1% Japan 19.3% 48% 35% 33% Australia 7.0% South Korea 11.1% India 12.0% [CATEGORY NAME] (Mainland) [PERCENTAGE ] China (Mainland) South Korea India Asia Pacific Total 22% Australia 7% Japan Source: DiioMi; Ailevon Pacific Aviation Consulting analysis 32
5 years ago, most China-North America capacity was provided by North American carriers but not now NORTH AMERICA-CHINA SEAT CAPACITY, 2012-2017 Thousands of one-way seats Chinese carriers: North American carriers: 2,512 2,436 2,265 1,979 1,710 1,262 1,785 1,619 2,027 2,545 3,369 4,005 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Sources Ailevon Pacific Aviation Consulting analysis; DiioMi 33
While China yields are deteriorating, India yields are falling faster than capacity growth U.S.-ASIA PACIFIC YIELDS VS CAPACITY CHANGE, YE SEP 2017 VS YE SEP 2014 Percent change in yields (USD per revenue passenger mile) vs. percent change in seat capacity Yield Change Capacity Change China -38% 65% India -25% 15% Australia -14% 14% South Korea -14% 28% Sources: Ailevon Pacific Aviation Consulting analysis, DiioMi, IATA Airport IS 34
With China capacity growth capped out, Asia-Pacific capacity growth shifts to India and Australia WEEKLY FLIGHTS FROM THE U.S. TO PEK, PVG, CAN, AUGUST 2017 Number of return flights Maximum number of weekly flights allowed by US-China agreement 180 NORTH AMERICA-ASIA PACIFIC SEAT CAPACITY GROWTH RATE, FIRST NINE MONTHS OF 2018 VS SAME PERIOD 2017 Percent growth India 10% 180 160 Australia 8% 138 China 6% Asia Pacific Total 3% South Korea -1% Japan -2% Chinese Carriers US Carriers Source: Ailevon Pacific Aviation Consulting analysis; Reuters; Diio Mi 35
And a word on the Middle East *First 9 months of 2018 vs previous corresponding period Source: Innovata; Ailevon Pacific Aviation Consulting analysis 36
37 Thank you!