AIR CARGO RECOVERY DRIVERS AND ROADBLOCKS Airports Council International North America Calgary DAN MUSCATELLO Landrum & Brown September 9, 0
Metric Tons (in millions) GLOBAL AIR CARGO VOLUMES Global air cargo volumes have recovered from, and surpassed, pre-recession levels (00-008). At many airports and regions demand has not materialized as anticipated. Global air cargo volumes averaged growth of.9% per year between 00 and 0, half the 0-year annual growth rate projected by Boeing prior to the recession. The Asia Pacific and North American markets remain dominant accounting for % and 9% of global air cargo volumes, respectively. Air cargo growth rates at Middle East airports have been particularly robust reflecting organic growth and market share capture. 90.0 80.0 Air Cargo Volumes by World Region (metric tons): 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 00 008 009 00 0 0E Asia-Pacific North America Europe Middle East Latin America Africa Source: ACI Worldwide Airport Traffic Report Summary. Note: The Airport Traffic Report Summary is a comparison of airports with complete data series for the -month period under review. 0E is an annualized value based on data through April 0.
Metric Tons (in millions) PLANNING IN AN UNCERTAIN WORLD While air cargo volumes have increased worldwide between 00 and 0, the rate of growth has in many cases not met forecast or stakeholder expectations. In 0, tonnage handled at airports around the world is estimated to be % below projected volumes. Actual demand is tracking approximately - years behind expectations. Actual performance versus projected performance is affecting the timing and commitment to many airport related air cargo projects. The Middle East is the only region to exceed projected growth rates. Gap Analysis: Actual 0 vs. Projected 0 Air Cargo Volumes by World Region (metric tons): 0.0.0 0.0.0 0.0 Actual Projected.0 0.0.0 0.0 Africa Asia Pacific Europe Latin America Middle East North America Sources: ACI Worldwide Airport Traffic Report Summary; Boeing Current Market Outlook 008-0; Landrum & Brown. Note: The Airport Traffic Report Summary is a comparison of airports with complete data series for the -month period under review. 0E is an annualized value based on data through April 0.
DRIVERS Air Cargo - 0 AIRPORT MARKETING EMERGENCE OF NEW MARKETS LIBERALIZATION GROWTH OF ACMI CARGO OPERATORS CENTRALIZED SCREENING FACILITIES THIRD PARTY DEVELOPMENT AND LEASING DRIVERS CARGO VILLAGE
AIRPORT MARKETING Cash flow augmentation. DRIVERS Regional jobs. Small bites versus big bites
EMERGENCE OF NEW MARKETS The rise of the Middle East, Eastern Europe and Africa. Are the transfer strategies of Middle East carriers sustainable? For gateway growth, interlining capacity and redundancy are critical. Carriers are also expanding their markets, increasing the supply of belly capacity at airports globally. DRIVERS
LIBERALIZATION Key agreements include Turkey (000), France (00), India (00), Australia (008), Brazil (00) and Japan (00). The Single Market Agreement with the European Union in 00 lifted restrictions on services to London Heathrow. The Chinese bilateral negotiations in 00 resulted in new routes from Chicago, Newark and Atlanta. Liberalization creates large opportunities for new gateways, but only incremental gains for older gateways. DRIVERS FRANCE Chicago Atlanta Newark TURKEY INDIA JAPAN BRAZIL AUSTRALIA
GROWTH OF ACMI CARGO OPERATORS DRIVERS Right-sizing their fleets, carriers are shifting to wet-leases. Greater reliance on wide-body belly capacity, and an increasing dependence on outsourcing for unusual or peak shipping requirements. Airports can not always know which carrier has chartered the operation. This can be problematic for planning both aircraft ramp and facility size.
CENTRALIZED SCREENING FACILITIES Independent contractors have begun developing certified screening facilities to service multiple small users including shippers, forwarders and carriers. These facilities (best located on-tarmac) reduce the cost of screening. DRIVERS
THIRD PARTY DEVELOPMENT AND LEASING As carriers pull back from owning or leasing property on an airport, the gap has been filled by third party developers. The practicality of cargo handling company participation. The common-use concept. DRIVERS
CARGO VILLAGE Includes virtually every business segment of the air cargo industry. They are usually only successful if there is an existing or strong potential market. DRIVERS
ROADBLOCKS Air Cargo - 0 INDUSTRY ALLIANCES AND CONSOLIDATIONS CHANGING DISTRIBUTION SYSTEMS MODAL SHIFTS GATEWAY FRAGMENTATION 9 RATIONALIZATION OF BELLY CAPACITY MAJOR GATEWAY SHIPPING 8 ROADBLOCKS NEW MIDDLE CLASS 8 NEW PANAMA CANAL 9 FAA SEQUESTRATION
INDUSTRY ALLIANCES AND CONSOLIDATIONS Airline alliances continued to reducing the need for many travelers to transit coastal gateways. The forwarders consolidation gateways and road feeder services provide them with traffic feed from points not served by their purchases of aircraft capacity. The gateways therefore serve as a substitute for airline alliances. The mergers have led to losses of service at some secondary hubs that resulted in the consolidation of terminals, leases, gates and counter space. 9 8 ROADBLOCKS
CHANGING DISTRIBUTION SYSTEMS Repatriation of manufacturing out of Asia back to North America and Europe. Rising costs make repatriation of previously exported industry and the importation of new business to the U.S. and Europe more viable. This will adversely impact international shipping. Domestically, manufacturing and distribution will move to a decentralized business model, increase demand for trucking, and reduce the need for air support. 8 9 ROADBLOCKS
MODAL SHIFTS Length -,0 ft Width - 0 ft Net cargo -,00 tons Cargo capacity -,000 TEU ( TEU = 0 cubic ft) Crew - people Cruise Speed - knots 9 8 ROADBLOCKS
GATEWAY FRAGMENTATION Increasing numbers of airports have introduced international routes that pull belly cargo out of traditional gateways. This represents the greatest challenge to cargo growth at mature gateways. 9 8 ROADBLOCKS
RATIONALIZATION OF BELLY CAPACITY International passenger operations are up-gauging to wide-body aircraft providing greater use of the belly capacity. Freight forwarders capitalize on this shift which allows them to ship freight at lower costs. Carriers will make better use of space in the passenger fleets. This exacerbates gateway fragmentation and will continue to change cargo routing. 9 8 ROADBLOCKS
MAJOR GATEWAY SHIPPING Economies of scale offered by the gateways and the proportionately higher costs of screening at small to mid-size facilities encourages the migration of cargo screening to the gateways. 9 8 ROADBLOCK
NEW MIDDLE CLASS Despite the recent economic stagnation that has slower cargo shipping, increasing purchasing power in rising nations previously focused on manufacturing for export, is changing the logistics dynamic. 9 8 ROADBLOCKS
NEW PANAMA CANAL The rise of the southeast. Global logistic shifts. The impact on western ports. Redistribution of manufacturing. Shifting rail emphasis. 9 8 ROADBLOCKS
FAA Sequestration A January, 0 date looms for cuts of up to $ Billion in FAA funding. The anticipated impact is a %-0% loss in passenger and cargo traffic. 9 8 ROADBLOCKS
Dan Muscatello Managing Director, Cargo & Logistics Landrum & Brown 00 English Court Floyds Knobs, IN 9 Phone: 8. 9. 8 Mobile: 0.. Fax: 8. 9. 9 Thank You! CONTACT INFORMATION