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Key Stats Of 11 peer cities assessed, Calgary has the second highest level of economic power comparing GDP per capita - Deloitte, Benchmarking Calgary s Competitiveness, 2015 Of 11 peer cities assessed, Calgary has the second highest level of economic growth comparing GDP growth - Deloitte, Benchmarking Calgary s Competitiveness, 2015 Highest GDP per Capita in 2016 of major Canadian cities. - Statistics Canada, 2016 8 of the Top 10 World Banks and 10 of the Top 10 Investment Banks have a presence in Calgary - The Banker Database, 2017; Banks around the World, 2017 21
Benchmarking Calgary s Competitiveness Calgary ranks 1 st in Population Growth (annual population growth rate) Calgary ranks 1 st in Labour Participation Calgary ranks 1 st in Education (highest education achieved) Calgary ranks 1 st in Industrial Land Price (price per sq. ft.) Calgary ranks 2 nd in Economic Power (GDP per capita) Calgary ranks 2 nd in Economic Growth (GDP growth) Calgary ranks 3 rd in Diversity (immigrant population) Calgary ranks 3 rd in Research & Development (annual R&D expenditures per capita) Calgary ranks 3 rd in Businesses per 100 people Calgary ranks 4 th in Commercial Real Estate (rent per sq. ft.) Calgary ranks 5 th in Housing Affordability (housing median multiple) Monitor Deloitte, December 2015 Peer Cities: Aberdeen, Atlanta, Brisbane, Chicago, Houston, Pittsburgh, Rio de Janeiro, Rotterdam, Singapore and Vancouver 22
Economic Scorecard Competitiveness Calgary ranks 2 nd in Inbound Seats per Capita Calgary ranks 3 rd in Marginal Effective Tax Rate on Capital Investment Calgary ranks 3 rd in Employment Growth (comparing five-year avg.) Calgary ranks 3 rd in Housing Affordability Calgary ranks 4 th in Overall (attractiveness to high-end talent and business investment) Calgary ranks 4 th in Real GDP per Capita Calgary ranks 4 th in Productivity Calgary ranks 6 th in Office Rents (US$ per sq. ft.) Calgary ranks 6 th in Unemployment Rate Greater Vancouver Economic Scorecard, Greater Vancouver Board of Trade, May 2016 Peer Cities: Barcelona, Copenhagen, Greater Vancouver, Halifax, Hong Kong, Houston, Los Angeles, Manchester, Miami, Montreal, Portland, Rotterdam, San Francisco, Seattle, Seoul, Shanghai, Singapore, Sydney and Toronto 23
Financial Competitiveness 8 of the Top 10 World Banks and 10 of the Top 10 Investment Banks have an office in Calgary. Total value of completed merger and acquisition deals in 2016 topped $85.6 billion, equivalent to more than onethird of all M&A activity across the country. High deal velocity and large deal size, with the average deal size estimated at $197 million, compared to $99 million in Toronto and $24 million in Vancouver. Highest concentration of head offices per capita in Canada, with 66 percent of head offices focused in energy and oil field services. Wealth management, private equity and asset management services have thrived in Calgary due to the concentration of private wealth in the city. Labour productivity in Calgary s Financial sector is 25 per cent higher than the Canadian average. The Banker, 2017; Statistics Canada, 2016; Stronger Together: The Strengths of Canada s Four Global Financial Centres, The Conference Board of Canada, 2016 24
Economic Indicators Summary GDP Growth Calgary CMA 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 4.2% 5.7% 5.6% -3.0% -3.2% 4.6% Alberta Capital Expenditure on Oil and Gas Extraction (Billions) $58.8 $65.1 $76.1 $38.0 $24.7 $25.3 Price of Oil WTI (EIA; $USD/barrel) $87.86 $97.63 $59.29 $48.67 $43.33 $50.79 WCS (AER; $USD/barrel) $57.87 $58.96 $43.24 $22.51 $29.48 $38.69 Price of Gas Henry Hub (EIA; $USD/mmBTU) $3.34 $4.24 $3.48 $2.72 $2.60 $3.10 AECO-C (AER; $CDN/GJ) $3.01 $3.68 $3.05 $2.19 $2.05 $2.99 Unemployment Rate 7.5% CMA (December) December 2017 Net Migration CMA; July 1 to June 30 of previous year; updated annually in February Office Vacancy Downtown (Q4) Building Permits $4.40 CMA (Billions) YTD November 2017 Benchmark Home Price $430,700 All Housing Types (December) November 2017 Housing Starts Single-Detached 4.9% 4.5% 4.5% 6.7% 28,781 37,286 35,424 19,123 5.0% 9.1% 9.8% 17.6% 10.1% 23,006 25.0% $5.25 $7.14 $7.33 $7.17 $5.42 $386,500 $421,000 $457,100 $448,100 $431,700 5,961 6,402 6,494 4,138 3,489 12,443 28.0% 4,100-4,500 Sources: Alberta Energy Regulator, Canadian Real Estate Association, CBRE Limited, CMHC, The Conference Board of Canada, Industry Canada, Statistics Canada, U.S. Energy Information Administration 25
Major Canadian Cities Comparison Vancouver Edmonton Calgary Saskatoon Toronto Ottawa Montreal Canada 2016 Real GDP Growth 4.1% -3.4% -3.2% -0.8% 3.3% 1.9% 1.8% 1.3% 2017F Real GDP Growth 3.2% 3.9% 4.6% 3.6% 3.7% 2.5% 3.2% 2.9% CMA Population July 2016 2016 Population Growth 1.6% 2.5% 2.5% 3.2% 1.9% 1.6% 1.1% 1.2% Unemployment Rate December 2017 Participation Rate December 2017 Employment Growth 62,400 26,300 16,400 200 143,700 3,100 55,800 422,500 December 2017 4.6% 3.5% 2.0% 0.1% 4.5% 0.4% 2.6% 2.3% Full-Time Employment Growth December 2017 Part-Time Employment Growth December 2017 2,548,740 1,392,594 1,469,341 315,150 6,242,273 1,351,135 4.1% 7.5% 7.5% 7.6% 6.0% 5.5% 67.2% 73.0% 73.2% 69.4% 66.8% 67.7% 5.7% -1.1% -4.6% -4.3% 2.6% -14.2% 4,093,767 67.3% 2.1% 36,286,425 6.1% 5.7% 65.8% 4.4% 4.3% 3.6% 1.0% 4.9% 4.6% 2.7% 2.7% 0.8% Provincial Average Weekly Earnings Octo ber 2017 $953.84 $1,159.82 $1,159.82 $1,014.22 $992.64 $992.64 $905.70 $981.60 Source: Conference Board of Canada, Statistics Canada 26
GDP Annual Growth Rate Annual Real GDP Growth Rates Across Canada 10% 8% 6% 4.6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -3.0% -3.2% -6% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F Vancouver Edmonton Calgary Saskatoon Toronto Ottawa Montreal Canada Source: Conference Board of Canada 27
GDP Annual Growth Rate Annual Forecasted Real GDP Growth Rates Across Canada 5.0% 4.5% 4.6% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.5% 2.6% 2.0% 1.5% 2.1% 2.3% 1.0% 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F Vancouver Edmonton Calgary Saskatoon Toronto Ottawa Montreal Canada Source: Conference Board of Canada 28
$90,000 $80,000 $70,000 Annual GDP per Capita Across Canada $77,008 A leader in economic power, with the highest annual GDP per capita of major cities in Canada $60,000 $60,594 $56,685 $54,562 $50,000 $50,675 $46,325 $52,814 $49,170 $46,226 $40,000 $41,510 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $0 Vancouver Edmonton Calgary Regina Saskatoon Winnipeg Toronto Ottawa Montreal Canada Source: Statistics Canada, 2016; updated annually in March 29
Calgary GDP by Industry Calgary s economy is diversifying Total GDP $49.5 Billion 53.9% Primary and Utilities 31.6% Primary and Utilities Total GDP $113.2 Billion 16.5% Finance, Insurance and Real Estate 2.7% Transportation and Warehousing 1.1% Information and Cultural Industries 3.0% Public Administration and Defence 10.6% Finance, Insurance and Real Estate 4.6% Business Services 5.7%, Wholesale and Retail Trade 6.8%, Non-Commercial Services 5.0% Construction 3.7%, Manufacturing 3.0%, Personal Services 9.3% Business Services 8.5%, Wholesale and Retail Trade 7.7%, Non-Commercial Services 7.0% Construction 5.2%, Manufacturing 4.0%, Personal Services 1987 2016 Source: The Conference Board of Canada, 2017 4.8% Transportation and Warehousing 2.7% Information and Cultural Industries 2.8% Public Administration and Defence 30
Calgary Forecast GDP by Industry 2017 (2007 $ Millions) 2021 (2007 $ Millions) Total change 2017-2021 (%) Goods-Producing Industries 52,963 58,096 8.8% Manufacturing 6,250 6,911 9.6% Construction 8,015 8,789 8.8% Primary and utilities 38,698 42,397 8.7% Services-Producing Industries 65,373 71,856 9.0% Transportation and warehousing 5,592 6,088 8.1% Information and cultural industries 3,018 3,222 6.4% Wholesale and retail trade 10,237 10,889 6.0% Finance, insurance and real estate and leasing 19,258 21,807 11.7% Business services 10,521 11,551 8.9% Personal services 4,641 5,107 9.1% Non-commercial services 8,946 9,831 9.0% Public administration and defence 3,160 3,361 6.0% All Industries 118,336 129,953 8.9% Source: The Conference Board of Canada, 2017 31
Mining, Quarrying, Oil and Gas Extraction Oil and Gas Extraction Transportation and Warehousing Public Administration Utilities Manufacturing Real Estate, Rental and Leasing Construction Educational Services Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, Hunting Information and Culture Retail Trade Accommodation and Food Services Wholesale Trade Health Care, Social Assistance Administrative, Support, Waste Management, Remediation Finance and Insurance Professional, Scientific, Technical Services Arts, Entertainment, Recreation Other Services Management of Companies and Enterprises CAD$ Billions $4.5 $4.5 $3.9 $4.9 $2.1 $1.8 $2.9 $2.2 $1.7 $1.7 $2.8 $2.2 $1.7 $1.6 $1.2 $1.2 $1.1 $1.0 $0.7 $0.8 $0.7 $0.7 $1.0 $1.0 $0.3 $0.3 $0.7 $0.6 $0.4 $0.4 $0.4 $0.3 $0.3 $0.2 $0.0 $0.1 $10.0 $9.1 $25.8 $26.4 $24.7 $25.3 Alberta Capital Spending by Industry $35.0 $30.0 $25.0 2016 2017 Intentions $20.0 $15.0 $10.0 $5.0 $0.0 Source: Table 029-0045, Statistics Canada 32
Growth Rate Retail Sales Growth Across Canada 60% 50% 50.7% 40% 40.2% 42.9% 38.5% 30% 26.2% 28.9% 24.7% 22.9% 30.6% 33.5% 20% 10% 0% 13.4% 6.5% 6.8% 8.3% 15.3% 12.0% 9.0% 5.2% 1.2% 1.4% 17.5% 17.5% 14.8% 7.2% 6.9% 5.2% 5.7% 4.3% 5.1% 5.8% 3.5% -1.0% -10% Vancouver Edmonton Calgary Saskatoon Toronto Ottawa Montreal Canada 2015/2016 Retail Sales Growth 2016/2017F Retail Sales Growth 5-Year Retail Sales Growth (2012-2016) 10-Year Retail Sales Growth (2007-2016) Source: Conference Board of Canada, 2017 33
Inflation Growth Across Canada 20% 18% 18.4% 16% 15.6% 15.6% 14.6% 14% 12.9% 13.6% 13.7% 13.1% 12% 10% 8% 7.4% 8.3% 6% 4% 2% 3.0% 1.9% 5.4% 2.7% 6.1% 1.1% 2.6% 0.9% 3.9% 6.5% 0.6% 2.2% 2.2% 1.4% 1.9% 5.7% 1.7% 0.6% 4.5% 2.1% 1.5% 5.9% 0% Vancouver Edmonton Calgary Saskatoon Toronto Ottawa Montreal Canada Current-YTD Growth Rate Previous-Year Growth Rate 5-Year Total Growth Rate (2012-2016) 10-Year Total Growth Rate (2007-2016) Source: Statistics Canada, November 2017 34