Appendix 8: Fitted distribution parameters for ship location Drogden Southbound Data Fitted Average -56-56 Stdev 56 34 Ratio,4 Registrations Mixed dist Channel borders 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1-5 -3-1 1 3 5,12,1 Registrations Mixed distribution,8,6,4,2-4 -36-32 -28-24 -2-16 -12-8-4 48 12 162 24 2832 36 4 viii
Drogden Northbound Data Fitted Average 5 51 Stdev 63 35 Ratio,6 Registrations Mixed dist Channel borders 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1-5 -3-1 1 3 5,12,1 Registrations Mixed distribution,8,6,4,2-4 -36-32 -28-24 -2-16 -12-8-4 48 12 162 24 2832 36 4 ix
Flinten Northbound Data Fitted Average 3 33 Stdev 51 37 Ratio,5 Registrations Mixed dist Channel borders 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1-5 -3-1 1 3 5,12,1 Registrations Mixed distribution,8,6,4,2-4 -36-32 -28-24 -2-16 -12-8-4 48 12 162 24 2832 36 4 x
Flinten Southbound Data Fitted Average -5-53 Stdev 72 43 Ratio,6 Registrations Mixed dist Channel borders 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1-5 -3-1 1 3 5,12,1 Registrations Mixed distribution,8,6,4,2-4 -36-32 -28-24 -2-16 -12-8-4 48 12 162 24 2832 36 4 xi
Ven West Southbound Data Fitted Average 2611 2679 Stdev 535 41 Ratio,7 Registrations Mixed dist Channel borders 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1-6 -4-2 2 4 6,1,9,8,7,6,5,4,3,2,1-4616,344-4176,6564-3737,83 Registrations -3297,363-2857,7123-2418,642-1978,4162-1538,7681-199,121-659,4726-219,8242 219,8242 659,4726 199,121 1538,7681 1978,4162 2418,642 2857,7123 3297,363 3737,83 4176,6564 Mixed distribution xii
Ven West Northbound Data Fitted Average 2989 378 Stdev 931 28 Ratio,14 Registrations Mixed dist Channel borders 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1-6 -4-2 2 4 6,14,12,1,8,6,4,2-4616,344-4176,6564-3737,83 Registrations -3297,363-2857,7123-2418,642-1978,4162-1538,7681-199,121-659,4726-219,8242 219,8242 659,4726 199,121 1538,7681 1978,4162 2418,642 2857,7123 3297,363 3737,83 4176,6564 Mixed distribution xiii
Ven East Northbound Data Fitted Average -1392-1439 Stdev 338 273 Ratio,7 Registrations Mixed dist Channel borders 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1-3 -2-1 1 2 3,16,14,12,1,8,6,4,2-2496,1621-2258,4324-22,727 Registrations -1782,9729-1545,2432-137,5135-169,7838-832,544-594,32431-356,59459-118,86486 118,86486 356,59459 594,32431 832,544 169,7838 137,5135 1545,2432 1782,9729 22,727 2258,4324 Mixed distribution xiv
Ven East Southbound Data Fitted Average -1329-1655 Stdev 659 278 Ratio,28 Registrations Mixed dist Channel borders 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1-3 -2-1 1 2 3,16,14,12,1,8,6,4,2-2496,1621-2258,4324-22,727 Registrations -1782,9729-1545,2432-137,5135-169,7838-832,544-594,32431-356,59459-118,86486 118,86486 356,59459 594,32431 832,544 169,7838 137,5135 1545,2432 1782,9729 22,727 2258,4324 Mixed distribution xv
Appendix 9: Passage situation distributions Drogden 1 9 8 7 Probability 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 Passage distance [m] Drogden 35% 3 probability 25% 2 15% 1 5%, 6, 12, 18, 24, 3, 36, 42, 48, 54, 6, 66, Passage distance [m] Drogden Maximum width of passing ships [m] 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5-1 1 2 3 4 5 6 Passage distance [m] xvi
Broen 1 9 8 7 Probability 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 Passage distance [m] Broen 8 7 probability 6 5 4 3 2 1 3, 125,5 221, 316,5 412, 57,5 63, 698,5 794, 889,5 Passage distance [m] Broen Maximum width of passing ships [m] 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5-1 1 2 3 4 5 6 Passage distance [m] xvii
VenØst 1 9 8 7 Probability 6 5 4 3 2 1 2 4 6 8 1 12 Passage distance [m] VenØst 12% 1 probability 8% 6% 4% 2% 1, 119, 228, 337, 446, 555, 664, 773, 882, 991, 11, 129, Passage distance [m] VenØst Maximum width of passing ships [m] 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 2 4 6 8 1 12 Passage distance [m] xviii
VenVest 1 9 8 7 Probability 6 5 4 3 2 1 5 1 15 2 Passage distance [m] VenVest 16% 14% probability 12% 1 8% 6% 4% 2% 8, 272, 464, 656, 848, 14, 1232, 1424, 1616, 188, 2, 2192, Passage distance [m] VenVest Maximum width of passing ships [m] 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 5 1 15 2 Passage distance [m] xix
HH 1 9 8 7 Probability 6 5 4 3 2 1 5 1 15 2 25 Passage distance [m] HH 16% 14% probability 12% 1 8% 6% 4% 2%, 22, 44, 66, 88, 11, 132, 154, 176, 198, 22, 242, Passage distance [m] HH Maximum width of passing ships [m] 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 5 1 15 2 25 Passage distance [m] xx
Appendix 1: Estimation of the number of leisure boats in Øresund According to the risk model, the total number of leisure boats must be determined. This information is not given in any reference; hence this number must be estimated. Beside the total number of leisure boats, the amount of time the boats spend outside harbour must be estimated as well. Some of the larger harbours log information about the number of permanent residents in the harbour and the annual number of guest nights. Traffic derived from guest nights and traffic derived from permanent residents in harbours in Øresund contribute to the total number of leisure boats. These two parts are described in the following sections. Accounting traffic from guest nights The estimation of the number of leisure boats in Øresund is based on the following assumptions: Each coastline kilometre is associated with a certain number of guest nights. The coastline intensity for Copenhagen County is representative for all coastline kilometres in Øresund Each guest night has associated a corresponding amount of time at sea, which is assumed to be three hours per day. The lengths of the coastlines in Øresund are given in Table A- 1. Location Coastline Øresund [km] Copenhagen County 63 Frederiksborg County 42 Roskilde County 36 Sweden 139 In total 28 Table A- 1 Number of coastline kilometres for the different counties in Denmark and for the Swedish coastline. The annual number of permanent residents and number of guest night at relevant harbours are shown in Table A- 2. xxi
Location Permanent residents at harbour Annual number of guest nights Svanemøllen*, ref. [26] 179 263 Rungsted*, ref. [27] 8 27 Helsingør, ref. [28] 95 1 Hellerup* Skovshoved*, ref. [29] 42 27 Dragør*, ref. [3] 75 75 Helsingborg, ref. [31] 28 35 Copenhagen, ref. [7] - 15 464 # Copenhagen County, ref. [7] - 41 861 # Table A- 2 Annual number of permanent residents and number of guest night at relevant harbours. The two last rows are for the summer period (June-August) only (marked with #). The total coastline in Øresund is approximately 4.4 larger than the coastline of Copenhagen County. Using this factor and that the annual number of guest nights in Copenhagen County from Danmarks Statistik, the number of guest nights is about 186. for Øresund in total. In the summer period (June August) there are 92 days. Assuming that every guest night corresponds to three hours of sailing, imply that there are about 253 ships on the sea on average during day and night. Accounting for traffic from permanent residents in harbours The information of the total number of permanent residents in the harbours in Øresund is not logged at Danmarks Statistik. However, some of the larger harbours logs this information. In Table A- 2 five of the harbours (marked with *) reside in Copenhagen County. The number of guest nights in these harbours is summarized to 14 963. The proportions between guest nights and permanent residents in these harbours are computed and the average of these proportions is computed. Assuming that this weighted proportion between guest nights in these harbours and Copenhagen County will represent the same proportion of permanent residents, the number of permanent residents in Copenhagen County can be estimated to 11 346. Using the same proportion between Copenhagen County and the rest of the Øresund region, the total number of ships that permanently resides in harbours in Øresund can be estimated to 5 429. In order to estimate the percentage of leisure ships which is outside harbour, some of the contact persons for the harbours listed in Table A- 2, were asked about their perceptions. These perceptions are listed in Table A- 3. xxii
Harbour Summer day Maximum Svanemøllen 1 2 Hellerup 4 Skovshoved - Dragør 1 25% Table A- 3 Estimated percentage of ships outside harbour. According to Table A- 3 it can be assumed that during summer on average 1 is away at daytime (e.g. 12 hours). Thus, 543 leisure boats are at sea during a summer day. It is assumed that there are no leisure boats during the night, thus there are 2522 boats per 24 hour period. Finally, summarizing the traffic corresponding to permanent residents and guest nights, it is assumed that 1 of the permanent residents also contributes to guest nights. Further, it is assumed that there are approximately 25 fishing boats per day in Øresund. The total number of leisure boats and fishing vessel in Øresund during day and night in the summer period is thus 3. To compute a distribution of leisure boats and fishing vessel per month in Øresund, the following assumption are taken: 8 of the boats leaving the harbours sail in the Øresund area, the rest is assumed to sail outside Øresund. Summer period covers the months June, July and August. During the spring and fall months (April, May and September) the traffic is assumed to be 2 of the traffic in the summer period. During the winter period (October to March) no traffic is assumed.. Based on the above assumptions a distribution for the traffic of leisure boats and fishing vessel can be computed. The distribution is shown in Table A- 4 and the resulting annual number of leisure boats and fishing vessels in Øresund is 259 2. Month Ships per day January February March April 48 May 48 June 24 July 24 August 24 September 48 October November December Table A- 4 Distribution for leisure boats and fishing vessel. xxiii
Appendix 11: Visit to ports in Øresund Visits to Danish ports given by port, gross tonnage (GT) and year. 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 Avedøreværket Less than 25 GT Cargo ships................ 25-499 GT Cargo ships................ 5-1499 GT Cargo ships.. 4.... 1 4.... 15-4999 GT Cargo ships 64 125 39 34 83 66 19 191 5-9999 GT Cargo ships 72 27 79 57 42 76 3 33 1 24999 GT Cargo ships................ 25 GT and over Cargo ships................ Dragør Less than 25 GT Cargo ships................ 25-499 GT Cargo ships................ 5-1499 GT Cargo ships................ 15-4999 GT Cargo ships................ Passengerships and ferries 2992 2513 266.......... 5-9999 GT Cargo ships................ Passengerships and ferries 2556 2513 266.......... 1-24999 GT Cargo ships................ 25 GT and over Cargo ships................ Kastrup Less than 25 GT Cargo ships................ 25-499 GT Cargo ships................ Passengerships and ferries 3523 3332 3516 2181........ 5-1499 GT Cargo ships................ 15-4999 GT Cargo ships................ 5-9999 GT Cargo ships................ 1-24999 GT Cargo ships................ 25 GT and over Cargo ships................ xxiv
1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 Copenhagen Less than 25 GT Cargo ships 458 842 719 595 974 128 611 175 Passengerships and ferries 2287 1782 1873 1241........ 25-499 GT Cargo ships 92 822 695 851 796 797 89 778 Passengerships and ferries 11369 1216 1187 12996 852 1259.... 5-1499 GT Cargo ships 1247 1229 716 695 694 645 718 554 Passengerships and ferries 1.............. 15-4999 GT Cargo ships 1411 1424 1424 1394 1319 111 167 876 Passengerships and ferries 9.............. 5-9999 GT Cargo ships 629 627 569 493 529 523 476 473 Passengerships and ferries 1243 1246 1269 722 28...... 1-24999 GT Cargo ships 88 143 188 24 231 31 33 315 Passengerships and ferries 18 189 19 146 666 716 816 543 25 GT and over Cargo ships 11 11 117 113 138 119 161 164 Passengerships and ferries 355 358 365 346 363 364 355 371 Tuborg Less than 25 GT Cargo ships................ 25-499 GT Cargo ships................ 5-1499 GT Cargo ships................ 15-4999 GT Cargo ships................ 5-9999 GT Cargo ships................ 1-24999 GT Cargo ships................ 25 GT and over Cargo ships................ Helsingør Less than 25 GT Cargo ships........ 1 1.... Passengerships and ferries 848 8883 7453 8187 6427 5628 5256 463 25-499 GT Cargo ships.... 9.......... Passengerships and ferries 4492 4222 3431 363 3693 4242 4256 4238 5-1499 GT Cargo ships 21 1 5 2 1 2 5 4 15-4999 GT Cargo ships 6.. 4 4.. 3.... Passengerships and ferries 11385 11816 12525 1297 12985 13471 13518 13136 5-9999 GT Cargo ships................ Passengerships and ferries 4881.............. 1-24999 GT Cargo ships................ Passengerships and ferries 15742 19927 2677 2897 22121 21726 21686 21668 25 GT and over Cargo ships................ Snekkersten Less than 25 GT Cargo ships................ 25-499 GT Cargo ships................ 5-1499 GT Cargo ships................ 15-4999 GT Cargo ships................ xxv
1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 5-9999 GT Cargo ships................ 1-24999 GT Cargo ships................ 25 GT and over Cargo ships................ Køge Less than 25 GT Cargo ships 2 8 61 21 32 15 7.. 25-499 GT Cargo ships 87 95 56 42 42 56 57 78 5-1499 GT Cargo ships 351 274 241 277 277 269 231 24 15-4999 GT Cargo ships 172 187 171 177 177 245 34 314 5-9999 GT Cargo ships 15 27 4 14 14 181 35 233 1-24999 GT Cargo ships 1.............. Passengerships and ferries.............. 155 25 GT and over Cargo ships................ xxvi
Visit to the port of Landskrona Calls in Landskrona 3 25 BT 2 15 1 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 5 Less than 25 BT 25-499 BT 5-1499 BT 15-4999 BT 5-9999 BT 1-24999 BT More than 25 BT xxvii
Appendix 12: General description of Bayesian network A Bayesian Network is a graphical representation of uncertain quantities reveals explicitly the probabilistic dependence between the set variables is designed as a knowledge representation of the considered problem A BN is a network with directed arcs and no cycles The nodes represents random variables and/or decisions Arcs into random variables indicate probabilistic dependence Causal modelling most effectively does the model building Bayesian networks offer 1. Allows one to learn about causal relationships. -This knowledge allow to make predictions in the presence of interventions / observations 2. BN in conjunction with Bayesian statistical techniques facilitate the combination of domain knowledge and data -prior or domain knowledge 3. BN can readily handle incomplete data -missing data 4. Bayesian methods in conjunction with BN and other methods offers efficient methods to avoid over fitting of data xxviii
Appendix 13: Bayesian network for frequency models xxix
Ship traffic distribution network xxx
Human failure network xxxi
Ship collision crossing ships calculation of geometrical diameter xxxii
Ship collision crossing ships frequency calculation xxxiii
Ship collision passing ships frequency calculation xxxiv
Ship-obstacle collision grounding ships frequency calculation xxxv
Appendix 14: Bayesian network for consequence models xxxvi
Ship collision passing and crossing ships consequence calculation xxxvii
Ship collision grounding ships consequence calculation xxxviii
Appendix 15: Accident costs in Norwegian waters Cost element Oil tanker Bulk Carrier Passenger Vessel Fishing Vessel Typical accident Rescue operations.5.5.1.1.1 Clean-up costs Damage to ship and cargo Personal damage /loss of lives Environmental damage 8.5.6 1.2.13 1.2 25 7.2 2.5.36 3.6.85.17 1.7.8.85 17 4.5 1.2.24 2.4 Total cost 51.85 12.52 6.7 1.54 8.15 Estimates of different costs (in NOK million) for accidents involving different ship types in Norwegian waters, ref. [6]. 4 4 1 NOK 1 DKK xxxix