AEROPORTO FVG SpA WP3 PRELIMINARY FRAMEWORK ANALYSIS SWOT ANALYSIS
1. TRIESTE APULIA O&D Consolidated relationship between the catchment areas Consistent existing air traffic flows (some 31.000 pax/year between the catchment areas) Estimation of an overall demand potential for direct flights ranging from 49 to 57.000 passengers/year Seasonal demand (lower in Winter) Other airlines connect BRI/BDS TRS via FCO and LIN at high frequency of service (more flights/day) Other airlines already connect Apulian Airports (BRI/BDS) with competitor airports of TRS (VCE/TSF) Likely use of BDS instead of BRI as reference airport (lower demand), also due to legal requirements Low public transport service supply (coach, train) No more direct rail services between the two catchment areas Foreseeable increase of tourist and VFR traffic at both ends of the O&D New powerful low cost competitor (Ryanair) on the BRI TRS route since 03/2012 Possible fares reduction by competing air services (both direct and transfer) Re instatement of the cancelled direct rail services BDS route eligible for State aid support Development of domestic high speed rail services (long term only)
2. TRIESTE NIŠ O&D Relevant Serbian immigrant community in the Trieste catchment area Historical role of Trieste as gateway between the Balkans and Western Europe Proved air service sustainability (TRS BEG by Jat Airways with 10.000 pax/year closed in 05/2011 due to financial troubles of the carrier) The air service would not refer to the capital (BEG) Other airlines already connect the catchment areas (LJU BEG and LJU INIvia TGD) Almost daily coach services available via Belgrade Increasing car trips (less VISA restrictions) Lack of the consolidated TRS BEG flight Serbia candidate to join the EU Foreseeable economic development of Serbia Expensive and time consuming car trip The almost daily coach services via Belgrade are very time consuming No direct rail services available (several transfers) Route eligible for State aid support, free bilateral Further improvement of the road network infrastructures Less cross border formalities for car travellers once Serbia has joined the EU Re opening of the direct competing air service TRS BEG
3. TRIESTE MOSTAR O&D Historical role of Trieste as gateway between the Balkans and Western Europe Well established religious tourism to Međugorje There is a Bosnian/H immigrant community in the Trieste catchment area The air service would not refer to the capital (SJJ) The OMO catchment area has a low population and business activities density Seasonality of tourism to Međugorje Direct daily coach services available between Trieste and Međugorje Pilgrims often tend to prefer coach group travel BiH candidate to join the EU Growth of religious tourism to Međugorje, especially from Italy The daily coach services to Međugorje are very time consuming No direct rail services available (several transfers) No attractive competition by existing air services Route eligible for State aid support, free bilateral Further improvement of the road network infrastructures Less cross border formalities for car travellers once BiH has joined the EU Prospects of religious tourism to Međugorje (maturity? decrease?)
4. APULIA MOSTAR O&D Well established religious tourism from Apulia to Međugorje (several charters flights are already operating bt between BRI/FOGand OMO) Extremely long, tiring and unattractive trip with surface transport modes (car, train, coach) BiH candidate to join the EU Growth of religious tourism to Međugorje, especially from Italy No attractive competition by existing scheduled air services No competition by public surface transport services Route eligible for State aid support, free bilateral The air service would not refer to the capital (SJJ) The OMO catchment area has a low population and business activities density Seasonality of tourism to Međugorje VFR traffic unlikely (no BiH immigrants in Apulia) Pilgrims often tend to prefer coach group travel Viability of cross Adriatic ferry services Prospects of religious tourism to Međugorje (maturity? decrease?) Improvement of the road network infrastructures linking the Adriatic coast ferry ports and the Mostar area
5. APULIA NIŠ Extremely long, tiring and unattractive trip with surface transport modes (car, train, coach) The air service would not refer to the capital (BEG) Limited VFR traffic (few Serbian immigrants in Apulia) Low economic relations between the two areas Viability of cross Adriatic ferry services Serbia candidate to join the EU Foreseeable economic development of Serbia No competition by public surface transport services No attractive competition by existing air services Both catchment areashave a highpopulation density (gravity?) Route eligible for State aid support, free bilateral Improvement of the road network infrastructures linking the Adriatic coast ferry ports and the Niš area
6. NIŠ MOSTAR O&D Serbia and BiH belonged to the same economic system for several decades Lack of adequate surface transport infrastructures (i.e. roads) between the catchment areas Short distance for an air service INI OMO (324 km) The air service would not refer to the capital cities Some competition from the BEG SJJ service (?) Bilateral agreements: no EU carrier is allowed to fly an air service between Serbia and BiH Route not eligible for EU State aid support Both Serbia and BiH are candidates to join the EU Only with their EU membership, the current obstacles of the bilateral agreement and of the State aid supportnon elegibility will be overcome Improvement of the road network infrastructures
7. Overall AirNet NETWORK Project SWOT There is market potential for direct air services For most of the routes, there is limited competition, due to the niche markets involved Distance between partner airports is compatible with regional air services (250 to 720 km) Low performing and unattractive alternative transport systems 5outof6routesareeligibleforState aid support and are not subject to bilateral agreements Development of economic and tourist relations between the involved areas Support of VFR relations BothSerbia and BiH are candidates to join the EU Development of viable alternative transport modes (improved roads, HSTs, etc.) is a long way ahead Fare sensitive users (elastic demand) require a lowfare operation Demand is consolidated only for some relations Seasonal demand International air services not referring to capitals Competing airports for all areas except for Apulia Currently, the INI OMO route can not be operated New low fare air service just opened by Ryanair on the strongest project O&D (TRS BRI) Development of new public transport services or improvement of existing ones Development of viable alternative transport modes (improved roads, HSTs, etc.) in the long term Overall economic downturn and uncertainty
AirNet NETWORK Project: main SWOT considerations for the Business Plan setup If operated by an EU carrier, 5 out of 6 of the possible routes are eligible for State aid support and are not subject to bilateral agreements. For most of these routes there is limited competition, due to the niche markets involved. Distance between partner airports is compatible with regional air services: the shortest route would be 250km long (BRI OMO) and the longest 720km long (TRS INI). Demand is seasonal. Users are mainly fare sensitive (elastic demand) and require a low fare operation.