IN SUMMARY There is a serious brain drain in southern Sydney. The Commission needs to prioritise Southern Sydney in its development but nothing is being done, thereby missing the opportunity to stop it. Lowest 20-year jobs growth (2016 and 2036) Lowest jobs per capita (2016 and 2036) Lowest amount of jobs in strategic centres (2016 and 2036) Lowest jobs in strategic centres as a percentage (2016 and 2036) Lowest jobs in strategic centres per capita (2016 and 2036) Lowest proportion of knowledge and professional services jobs (2016 and 2036) Governments are failing to invest the necessary infrastructure to prevent southern Sydney from falling further behind. Lowest overall investment (2001-2016) Lowest investment per capita (2001-2016) Lack of strategic centres in the South mean that excluding Kogarah, only 14% of Southern Sydney and Canterbury-Bankstown area suburbs are within 30 min public commute of a strategic centre The Commission disappointingly places minuscule priority on the opportunity and citizens of the South District. Sydney is growing; but the South is not included The Commission's research and strategy has pointed out that, in 2016, of the six Districts in the Plan, the South District had the lowest number of jobs per capita (0.326) and lowest 20-year jobs growth rate (21%). Additionally, the South District has the second-lowest portion of jobs in the knowledge sector (19%), only above the South West District. However, with the completion of Badgerys Creek Airport, it is highly plausible to hypothesise that the South West district will overtake the South District even in this respect. While the Commission has the opportunity to bring the South up to speed with the remainder of Sydney, the Commission s strategy will not bring it up to speed by attracting the knowledge and professional industries and talent needed to do so. Instead, the District Plan further exacerbates the South District s brain drain, to fall even further behind the rest of Sydney by 2036. Interconnectedness and the development of new industries is crucial to the inclusion of a city in the global economy. Therefore it is imperative that knowledge and professional sector be supported throughout all of metropolitan Sydney to foster inclusive and equitable growth. However, the South District is once again neglected in this category. It has only one classified Strategic Centre in the Commission s plan (similar to the West District), Kogarah, which is virtually a consolation prize for the South rather than a strategic centre to be taken seriously. A strategic hub? Kogarah is the second-smallest Strategic Centre in all of Sydney and the only one in the South District. It has 40% less jobs than even the 2 nd -largest Strategic Centre in every other District (except for the West, which only has Penrith; but at 44,000 jobs, it targets almost triple Kogarah s size). It has less jobs than district centres such as Hurstville or Bankstown, or even locations outside the South District including Dee Why. When comparing the South District s population to the rest of Sydney, the plan provides comparatively minuscule employment opportunities, especially for skilled professionals.
In 2036, jobs in South District Strategic Centres will comprise only 8.5% of the South District s jobs, and have only 0.02 jobs per capita, both the lowest proportion of any District. If more strategic jobs are not allocated to the South District soon, the South District clearly risks being isolated from Sydney s globalisation. The lowest job concentration in strategic centres of any District means less interconnectedness with the global economy, less centralisation, and consequently, less efficiency as infrastructure is less scalable. In the long term, this means more brain drain and less competitiveness. If it s not the best place to work, will the South even remain a good place to live? If the South cannot organically provide centralised, professional employment opportunities, one must consider how accessible it is to employment centres elsewhere best benchmarked against the Commission s own 30-minute city strategy. 30 out of 74 suburbs in the St George and Sutherland Shire areas have train stations. However, of those 30, only 10 are within 25 minutes from Central via their fastest peak-hour service (assuming a 5-minute walk to the nearest station for most commuters). Only 3 bus services (303, 422, and 423) connect the St George & Sutherland Shire to the City, none of which have 30 minute trips. If the South District is meant to be a place to live rather than work, it does not provide much opportunity; the 30-minute commute to strategic centres is farther out of reach for the South District than almost all others. Where is the investment in the South? Demand in the South is not waning it will be the 4 th fastest growing District by population until 2036. But governments are not investing nearly as much as in other regions the South District has the lowest per capita investment on major s over the past 20 years, and will have the second lowest in the next 30 years. However, the lowest is the South West District, where confirmed infrastructure s do not cover the budget, scale and opportunity of Western Sydney Airport and the demand it will generate. The South s decline has already begun The effects of this isolation on the South District are already being made clear in its desirability. According to Realestate.com.au, between 2010 and 2015, 90% of suburbs in the Sutherland Shire dropped in NSW s house price rankings, with an average fall of 33 places, even as new suburbs were being added. Recommendations 1) Develop Hurstville as a strategic centre. Like Macquarie Park in the north and Parramatta in the west, it is less than 30 minutes from Sydney CBD. It is also less than 30 minutes from almost every point in the South District, and therefore fulfilling its role as a strategic centre will enable the entire South District to be a strategic centre for the knowledge and professional industries. Key to this is: a. More commercial office zoning. Over the past 10 years, all developments in Hurstville greater than 10 storeys have been predominantly residential. We are wasting an opportunity to turn a well-serviced hub into a place to live and work. b. Extend the Illawarra Line quadruplication to Mortdale depot. This will increase the capacity for more services on the line to serve a new employment centre in Hurstville. c. Better bus routing. Regular services from all suburbs to Hurstville and Bankstown make buses a more viable commuting option and Bankstown and Hurstville more viable employment centres. 2) Develop the Grand Parade as a bus corridor. Similar to the rapid bus lanes on the M2, the M1 could be a fast way to funnel commuters from the St George & Sutherland Shire into Sydney CBD. 3) Direct buses from Sydney Airport to centres in Southern Sydney. Sydney Airport is a key advantage of Southern Sydney to be more integrated into Sydney s growth and more connections should be a priority.
2016 Strategic Centres jobs (by 000s) District Centres jobs (by 000s) Long term investment and growth Pop. ( 000s) 20Y Jobs growth Jobs Jobs/ capita Knowledge sector District jobs District jobs/capita investment investment/ capita Central 1013.2 44% 904.5 0.893 45% 496.9 59.5 22.8 64% 0.572 13.8 10.3 6.9 3% 0.031 67.5% 0.602 $.0bn $0.0 North 886.6 37% 353.5 0.399 35% 60.4 58.5 47.1 47% 0.187 20.0 14.3 5.0 11% 0.044 58.1% 0.232 $2.3bn $2,594.3 South 741.3 21% 241.5 0.326 19% 11.8 0 0 5% 0.016 15.7 12.1 11.6 16% 0.053 21.2% 0.069 $.0bn $0.0 South West 715.2 50% 237.1 0.332 16% 29.0 20.4 0 21% 0.069 10.6 5.4.4 7% 0.023 27.8% 0.092 $2.3bn $3,215.9 West 354.8 49% 133.1 0.375 24% 33.4 0 0 25% 0.094 10.3 8.3 2.7 16% 0.060 41.1% 0.154 $2.1bn $5,918.8 West Central 971.0 51% 440.3 0.453 23% 96.5 32.4 30.1 36% 0.164 9.8 6.7 4.2 5% 0.021 40.8% 0.185 $.3bn $309.0 2036 Strategic Centres jobs (by 000s) District Centres jobs (by 000s) Long term investment and growth Pop. ( 000s) Pop growth 20Y Jobs growth Jobs Jobs/capita District jobs District jobs/capita investment investment/ capita Central 1338.0 32% 44% 1302.5 0.973 662.0 75.0 32.0 85.02% 0.57 17.0 12.0 8.0 4.09% 0.03 89.11% 0.602 $15.9bn $11,883.4 North 1083.0 22% 37% 484.3 0.447 76.0 73.0 54.0 57.43% 0.19 23.0 18.0 6.0 13.30% 0.04 70.72% 0.231 $8.5bn $7,848.6 South 945.4 28% 21% 292.2 0.309 16.0 0 0 6.63% 0.02 17.0 17.0 15.0 20.29% 0.05 26.92% 0.069 $5.2bn $5,500.6 South West 1088.0 52% 50% 355.7 0.327 36.0 27.0 9.0 1 30.37% 0.07 14.0 7.0 6.0 11.39% 0.02 41.75% 0.091 $4.5bn $4,090.1 West 446.3 26% 49% 198.3 0.444 44.0 0 0 33.06% 0.10 12.0 10.0 3.0 18.78% 0.06 51.84% 0.155 $4.5bn $9,970.9 West Central 1521.0 57% 51% 664.9 0.437 156.0 49.0 45.0 56.78% 0.16 16.0 10.0 8.0 7.72% 0.02 64.50% 0.187 $10.9bn $7,166.3 1. Comparative economic indicators, 2016 and 2036. Sources: Greater Sydney Commission; Transport for New South Wales; NSW Roads & Maritime Services; Sydney Morning Herald; ABC News; Sydney Metro District Roads since 2000 Public since 2000 Spend Per capita Future road s Future public Spend 2 Per capita Central Cross City Tnl??? $.0bn $0.00 WestConnex ($16.8bn) Phase 3 Sydney Metro SW ($10.5bn) Sydney Light Rail ($2.2bn) $15.9bn $11,883.40 North Lane Cove Tnl ($1.1bn) Epping-Chatswood rail ($1.2bn) $2.3bn $2,594.30 NorthConnex ($3bn) Beaches Link ($3bn) Sydney Metro NW ($2.5bn) $8.5bn $7,848.60 South M5 East (ND)??? $.0bn $0.00??? Sydney Metro SW ($10.5bn) $5.2bn $5,500.60 South West Westlink M7 ($1.8bn) T-way (ND) South West Rail Link ($1.36bn) $2.3bn $3,215.90 W Sydney Infrastructure Plan ($3.6bn) Badgerys Creek Airport ($5.3bn) $4.5bn $3,952.20 West Westlink M7 ($1.8bn) T-way ($346m) $2.1bn $5,918.80 W Sydney Infrastructure Plan ($3.6bn) Badgerys Creek Airport ($5.3bn) $4.5bn $9,634.80 West Central??? T-way ($346m) $.3bn $309.00 WestConnex ($16.8bn) Phase 1 Sydney Metro NW ($2.5bn) $10.9bn $7,166.30 2. infrastructure by district, 2000-16 and 2016+. Sources: Greater Sydney Commission; Transport for New South Wales; NSW Roads & Maritime Services; smh.com.au; ABC News; Sydney Metro 1 Western Sydney Airport is not listed as a strategic centre; however, if included, in the early 2030s, [it] is expected to generate nearly 9,000 direct jobs (westernsydneyairport.gov.au) 2 Where a is located in multiple districts, spending is equally split between those districts
Thousands Thousands 200 Canterbury-Bankstown 56.7% (17) of suburbs growing 150 100 50 0-50 -100-150 Area benefits in report from Liverpool as an additional St George 62.5% (15) of suburbs declining Sutherland 90.6% (29) suburbs declining Kogarah, the only strategic centre in the South, is the second smallest in Sydney by its 2036 target; it is 45% the size of Liverpool (the median) and 36% the mean size of strategic centres outside Sydney CBD. 3. House price NSW ranking changes for St George & Sutherland Shire suburbs, 2010-15 Source: Realestate.com.au 4. Investment in major s per capita 5. Jobs based in strategic centres per capita $10.00 Investment in major s per capita $5.00 0.600 0.100 Jobs based in strategic centres per capita $0.00 Central North South South West West West Central -0.400 Central North South South West West West Central 2016 2036 2016 2036 6. Strategic centre sizes by District 200 150 Central North South South West West West Central 100 50 0
Line Closest strategic centre Central Strategic Peak Off-peak Peak Off-peak Allawah T4 Central 27 22 27 22 Bankstown T3 Liverpool 31 36 26 26 Belmore T3 Central 23 27 27 27 Beverly Hills T2 Mascot 27 27 18 18 Bexley North T2 Mascot 22 22 13 13 Birrong T3 Liverpool 35 42 21 21 Campsie T3 Central 21 25 21 21 Canterbury T3 Central 22 22 22 22 Caringbah T4 Central 41 46 41 46 Carlton T4 Central 25 20 25 20 Chester Hill T3 Liverpool 42 49 15 15 Como T4 Central 31 35 31 35 Cronulla T4 Central 46 51 46 51 East Hills T2 Central 29 36 29 27 Engadine T4 Central 41 47 41 47 Gymea T4 Central 36 41 36 41 Heathcote T4 Central 44 50 44 50 Hurlstone Park T3 Central 20 20 20 20 Hurstville T4 Central 20 22 20 22 Jannali T4 Central 32 33 32 33 Kingsgrove T2 Mascot 25 25 16 16 Kirrawee T4 Central 34 39 34 39 Kogarah T4 Central 23 18 23 18 Lakemba T3 Central 25 29 25 25 Leightonfield T3 Liverpool 44 51 13 13 Loftus T4 Central 37 43 37 43 Miranda T4 Central 39 44 39 44 Mortdale T4 Central 25 29 25 29 Narwee T2 Mascot 29 29 20 20 Oatley T4 Central 25 27 25 27 Padstow T2 Mascot 34 28 25 19 Panania T2 Central 27 34 27 25 Penshurst T4 Central 23 27 23 27 Punchbowl T3 Central 28 33 28 28 Regents Park T3 Central 38 38 38 38 Revesby T2 Central 24 31 24 22 Riverwood T2 Mascot 26 26 23 17 Rockdale T4 Central 21 16 21 16 Sefton T3 Liverpool 39 46 17 17 Sutherland T4 Central 32 35 32 35 Villawood T3 Liverpool 46 53 11 11 Wiley Park T3 Central 31 31 31 31 Woolooware T4 Central 44 49 44 49 Yagoona T3 Liverpool 40 40 23 23 East Hills line T2 30 min radius 8 6 9 9 East Hills line T2 30 min radius 88.9% 66.7% 100.0% 100.0% Bankstown line T3 30 min radius 6 5 13 13 Bankstown line T3 30 min radius 40.0% 33.3% 86.7% 86.7% Illawarra Line T4 30 min radius 8 8 8 8 Illawarra Line T4 30 min radius 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 7. Commute times to strategic centres with at least 25,000 jobs