VII. HOTEL MARKET ANALYSIS The Concord Group
EXHIBIT VII-1 REGIONAL LOCATION AND SUBMARKET DELINEATION- HOTEL PRODUCT GREATER PHOENIX METRO, ARIZONA The red area represents the Hospitality Market Area ("HMA"), the geographic source of competitive hospitality supply. The HMA is reffered to as "North Tempe" and is defined by the following zip codes: 85281, 85282, 85257, 85008, and 85287. The blue outline represents the Primary Market Area ("PMA"), the geographic source of demand for hospitality product, is referred to as "Greater Phoenix Metro" and is defined by zip codes. The PMA is comprised of all or parts of the following cities in Phoenix: PMA Phoenix, Paradise Valley, Tempe, Scottsdale, and Mesa. HMA Subject Site 15007.00 RegLoc: RegLoc (5) THE CONCORD GROUP
EXHIBIT VII-2 HISTORICAL TRENDS: HOTEL PERFORMANCE TEMPE, ARIZONA 2000 THROUGH 2014 Market Factor 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Tempe, Arizona Inventory 2,400 2,400 2,400 2,400 2,400 2,400 2,400 2,400 2,400 2,536 2,536 2,536 2,536 2,709 2,709 Vacancy Rate 33% 37% 35% 32% 28% 28% 28% 28% 32% 41% 37% 32% 34% 35% 31% ADR $106 $105 $97 $95 $98 $106 $118 $132 $135 $114 $107 $109 $111 $111 $120 Change in ADR -1% -7% -3% 3% 8% 21% 11% 2% -14% -5% 2% 2% 0% 7% Avg. Vacant Rooms 781 892 832 765 671 660 661 672 763 1,035 931 813 868 936 834 $140 45% $130 40% $120 35% $110 30% ADR ($) $100 $90 25% 20% Vacancy Rate $80 15% $70 10% $60 5% $50 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 0% ADR Vacancy Rate Source: CoStar 15007.00 Hotel Submarket Performance: 11. Hotel Macro Page 1 of 3 The Concord Group
EXHIBIT VII-2 HISTORICAL TRENDS: HOTEL PERFORMANCE - SEASONALITY TEMPE, ARIZONA 2000 THROUGH 2014 Market Factor January February March April May June July August September October November December 2014 Data Vacancy Rate T 29% 16% 10% 23% 35% 38% 43% 37% 38% 28% 32% 41% ADR R $130 $142 $157 $126 $111 $92 $87 $90 $111 $122 $127 $108 Change in ADR 9% 11% -20% -12% -17% -5% 3% 23% 11% 4% -15% 2000 through 2014 Average Data Vacancy Rate T 28% 20% 13% 27% 34% 38% 45% 39% 39% 31% 31% 44% ADR R $130 $135 $137 $120 $105 $83 $80 $81 $103 $114 $114 $103 Change in ADR 4% 1% -12% -13% -20% -5% 2% 27% 11% 0% -10% 180.0 50% 160.0 45% 140.0 40% 120.0 35% 30% ADR 100.0 80.0 25% 20% Vacancy 60.0 15% 40.0 10% 20.0 5% 0.0 January February March April May June July August September October November December Month ADR (2008 to 2014 avg) ADR (2014) Vacancy (2008 to 2014 avg) Vacancy (2014) 0% 15007.00 Hotel Submarket Performance: 11. Seasonality Page 2 of 3 The Concord Group
EXHIBIT VII-2 HISTORICAL TRENDS: HOTEL PERFORMANCE - DAILY PERFORMANCE TEMPE, ARIZONA SEPTEMBER 2014 THROUGH AUGUST 2015 Market Factor Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat September 2014 through August 2015 Average Vacancy Rate T 46% 29% 21% 20% 28% 34% 35% ADR R $125 $128 $133 $133 $131 $124 $123 Change in ADR 2% 4% 0% -2% -5% -1% 134.0 50% 132.0 45% 130.0 40% 128.0 35% ADR 126.0 124.0 30% 25% 20% Vacancy Rate (%) 122.0 15% 120.0 10% 118.0 5% 116.0 Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Day of the Week 0% ADR (May 2014 through April 2015 Average) Vacancy 15007.00 Hotel Submarket Performance: 11. Daily Performance Page 3 of 3 The Concord Group
EXHIBIT VII-3 HOTEL DEMAND - UPPER END HOTEL TEMPE, ARIZONA Projections (3) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Gross Metro Product ($B) 136.7 140.9 146.0 154.8 160.2 173.0 183.0 188.0 182.9 167.6 168.7 171.7 176.4 178.8 182.1 189.1 198.5 207.9 217.0 224.2 230.8 Annual % Change -- 3.1% 3.6% 6.1% 3.5% 8.0% 5.7% 2.7% -2.7% -8.4% 0.7% 1.8% 2.7% 1.4% 1.8% 3.8% 5.0% 4.7% 4.4% 3.3% 2.9% Hotel Demand Factors Supply (Total Rooms) 2,400 2,400 2,400 2,400 2,400 2,400 2,400 2,400 2,400 2,536 2,536 2,536 2,536 2,709 2,709 2,826 Annual % Change -- 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.8% 0.0% 4.3% Occupancy 67% 63% 65% 68% 72% 72% 72% 72% 68% 59% 63% 68% 66% 65% 69% 72% Demand (1) 1,619 1,508 1,568 1,635 1,729 1,740 1,739 1,728 1,637 1,501 1,605 1,723 1,668 1,773 1,875 2,026 2,077 2,175 2,270 2,346 2,415 Annual % Change -- -6.8% 4.0% 4.3% 5.7% 0.6% 0.0% -0.6% -5.3% -8.3% 6.9% 7.4% -3.2% 6.3% 5.7% 8.1% 5.0% 4.7% 4.4% 3.3% 2.9% Standard Occupancy (2) 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% Implied Supported Rooms 2,967 3,107 3,243 3,351 3,449 Net New Demand 141 140 136 108 98 5 year total demand: 623 (1) Supply multiplied by average annual occupancy (2) Projected average market occupancy based on market survey and future supply conditions (3) Hotel demand closely tracks changes in gross metro product. In this model, demand forecasts are based on projected change in gross metro product for the combined metropolitan statistical area. Sources: Moody's Economy.com (gross metro product); STR Global (hotel inventory and occupancy) 15007.00 Hotel Demand: demand THE CONCORD GROUP
EXHIBIT VII-4 SELECTED COMPETITIVE HOTEL INVENTORY TABLE HOTEL MARKET AREA Number Date Average Best Avail Rate Hotel/Chain Operator Location City of Rooms Open Occupancy Low High ADR Upscale Market Comparables Tempe Mission Palms Hotel Destination Hotels 60 E 5th St Tempe 303 1986 85% $125 $279 $218 Marriott Phoenix Tempe @ The Buttes Marriott International 2000 W Westcourt Way Tempe 353 1987 87% 135 269 201 Residence Inn Tempe Downtown University Marriott International 510 S Forest Ave Tempe 173 2013 87% 139 259 201 DoubleTree Phoenix Tempe Hilton Worldwide 2100 S Priest Tempe 270 1975 58% 110 219 166 Sheraton Hotel Phoenix Airport Tempe Starwood Hotels & Resorts 1600 S 52nd St Tempe 209 1984 70% 94 224 158 Graduate Tempe AJ Capital Partners 225 E Apache Blvd Tempe 140 1971 55% 96 286 153 Hyatt Place Tempe Phoenix Airport Hyatt 1413 W Rio Salado Pkwy Tempe 123 1997 55% 80 152 127 Total/Average: 1,571 1987 74% $116 $248 $183 Standard Market Comparables Courtyard Tempe Downtown Marriott International 601 S Ash Ave Tempe 160 1997 50% 103 229 175 Hampton Inn & Suites Phoenix Tempe ASU Area Hilton Worldwide 1415 N Scottsdale Rd Tempe 117 2015 60% 129 229 174 Hotel 1333 Hotel 1333 1333 S Rural Rd Tempe 187 1970 50% 119 259 172 aloft Hotel Tempe Starwood Hotels & Resorts 951 E Playa Del Norte Tempe 136 2009 75% 116 233 166 Embassy Suites Phoenix Tempe Hilton Worldwide 4400 S Rural Rd Tempe 224 1984 80% 101 199 159 Residence Inn Tempe Marriott International 5075 S Priest Tempe 126 1991 70% 89 179 140 Springhill Suites Phoenix Tempe Airport Marriott International 1601 W Rio Salado Pkwy Tempe 130 2000 75% 99 159 133 Country Inn & Suites Phoenix Airport @ Tempe Carlson Hospitality Company 808 N Scottsdale Rd Tempe 83 1998 80% 79 143 105 Comfort Suites Phoenix Airport Choice Hotels International 1625 S 52nd St Tempe 92 1999 75% 68 130 83 Total/Average: 1,255 1994 67% $103 $203 $151 Sum Total/Weighted Average: 2,826 1990 71% $110 $228 $169 (1) 2015 comps are currently under construction and begin taking guests a few months out, sample size and vintage may lead to slightly inflated rates. 15007.00 Hotel Comps:12. Hotel comps THE CONCORD GROUP
E E Rio Rio Salado Salado Pkwy Pkwy E E E E University University University W W W W Broadway Broadway Broadway Rd Rd Rd W W Baseline Baseline Baseline Rd Rd W E E E Baseline Baseline Rd Rd Rd W EXHIBIT VII-5 COMPARABLE HOTEL MAP HOSPITALITY MARKET AREA Susan Susan Susan Susan Susan Susan Susan Susan Susan Ln Ln Ln Ln Ln 101 N 55 5 it t 5 153 202 th h St 84th St Hampton Inn & Suites Phoenix Tempe ASU Area 101 N College Ave Ramp Ramp Ramp Ramp Ramp Ramp Ramp Ramp Ramp S 41st P S 40th P d Pl N Priest S 51st St Color Coded by ADR ($) S 37th St E Air Ln E Air Ln E Air Ln E Curry Rd Operations Red = $175+ E E E E E E E E E Sky Sky Sky Sky Sky Sky Sky Sky Sky Harbor Harbor Harbor Harbor Harbor Harbor Harbor Harbor Harbor Blvd Blvd Blvd Blvd Blvd Blvd Blvd Blvd Blvd 143 Ramp Ramp Ramp Ramp Ramp Ramp Ramp Ramp Ramp Ramp 202 Country Inn & Suites Phoenix Airport @ Tempe Orange = $166 - $175 Yellow = $153 - $166 Green = $105 - $153 Exit Exit Exit Exit Exit Exit Exit Exit Exit 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 202 202 E Sky Harbor Blvd aloft Hotel Tempe N Priest Blue = Less than $105 Ramp E Pima St Exit 3a W 8t 8 W 8th St Phoenix Sky Harbor Intl E Rio Salado Pkwy Hyatt Place Tempe Phoenix Airport Springhill Suites Phoenix Tempe Airport S Dobson Rd E E E E E 3rd 3rd 3rd 3rd 3rd St St St St St E Rio Salado Pky S Price Rd E E E 5th 5th 5th 5th 5th St St St St Tempe Mission Palms Hotel W W W W W W W W W 4th 4th 4th 4th 4th 4th 4th 4th 4th St St St St St St St St St 153 W W W W W W W W W 5th 5th 5th 5th 5th 5th 5th 5th 5th Pl Pl Pl Pl Pl Pl Pl Pl Pl W W W W W W 5th 5th 5th 5th 5th 5th 5th Pl Pl Pl Pl Pl Pl Idaho Idaho Idaho Idaho Idaho Idaho Idaho Idaho Idaho Residence Inn Tempe Downtown University E Univ ers E University University University S Hacienda Courtyard Tempe Downtown W 9th St W 9th St 143 S 46th St S 40th St W 2 E Randall E 8th St E 8th St E University University University University University University University University University W 1st Pl 101 S Rural Rd S Myrtle Ave W 10th Pl S Edward S 52nd St Exit 2 E E E E E E E E E Superior Superior Superior Superior Superior Superior Superior Superior Superior Ave Ave Ave Ave Ave Ave Ave Ave Ave E 12th St S Park Ln W W W W 12th 12th 12th 12th Pl Pl Pl Pl S Sycamore W Main St E Apache Blv d Graduate Tempe S Price Rd Exit 53 Hotel 1333 S Hardy E Elwood St E Raymond St E Anne St Sheraton Hotel Phoenix Airport Tempe Comfort Suites Phoenix Airport W Broadw S Mcclintock E E E E 15th 15th 15th 15th St St St St St W 15th St W 14th St W 16th St W 16th St W 17th Pl E Wood St E E E E E E Wood Wood Wood Wood Wood Wood St St St St St St E El Parque S Rural Rd E Broadway Rd E Broadway Rd E El Parque S Evergreen Rd DoubleTree Phoenix Tempe E Verlea S 40th St Holiday Trl E E E E E E E E E Bishop Bishop Bishop Bishop Bishop Bishop Bishop Bishop Bishop E E E E Bishop Bishop Bishop Bishop Bishop Bishop Marriott Phoenix Tempe @ The Buttes W Alameda W Alameda S 48th St S 44th Pl S 37th Pl E E E E E E E E E Atlanta Atlanta Atlanta Atlanta Atlanta Atlanta Atlanta Atlanta Atlanta Ave Ave Ave Ave Ave Ave Ave Ave Ave S 35th St W W W W W Enid Enid Enid Enid Enid Enid Enid Ave Ave Ave Ave Ave S Price Rd S Bala E E E E E E E E E Cairo Cairo Cairo Cairo Cairo Cairo Cairo Cairo Cairo S Mcclintock E Campus S Mill Ave E Loyola E Balboa Balboa Balboa Balboa Balboa Balboa Balboa Balboa Balboa 10 S 47th Pl S Hardy S Priest S Potter S 48th St S 40th St W South W Southern Av e E E E E E E Southern Southern Southern Southern Ave Ave Ave E Southern Av e E Malibu E Laguna S Mill Ave 60 S Dobson Rd E La Jolla S Rural Rd W Hermosa S 40th St S Price Rd 60 S 48th St S Mill Ave 10 S 40th St Embassy Suites Phoenix Tempe Yuma S Priest S 36th St E Ellis S Kyrene Rd S 48th St S 40th Pl W W Baseline Baseline Baseline Rd Rd Rd W Baseline Rd E Baseline Rd Parking Lot Parking Parking Parking Parking Parking Parking Parking Parking Parking Lot Lot Lot Lot Lot Lot Lot Lot Lot W W W W W W Baseline Baseline Baseline Baseline Baseline Baseline Baseline Rd Rd Rd Rd Scale Legend Residence Inn Tempe S 44th St E E E E E E Oxford Oxford Oxford Oxford Oxford Oxford Oxford Oxford E Beautiful Ln Feet W W W W W W W W W Kiowa Kiowa Kiowa Kiowa Kiowa Kiowa Kiowa Kiowa Kiowa A A A A A A A A A E E E E Colgate Colgate Colgate Colgate Colgate Colgate Colgate S Catarina Catarina Catarina Catarina Catarina Catarina Catarina Catarina Catarina 101 E Beverly Rd 0 2000 4000 W Oxford Oxford Oxford Oxford Oxford Oxford Oxford Oxford Oxford 15007.00 Hotel Comps: Hotel Map THE CONCORD GROUP
I. HMA Hotel Pipeline Status (1) RTA North Tempe EXHIBIT VII-6 PLANNED AND PROPOSED HOTEL DEVELOPMENT COMPETITIVE AND ANALOG MARKET AREAS South Tempe Analogue Market Areas Central Phoenix Central Scottsdale Future (Non-Subject Site) Under Construction 263 0 320 0 Approved 998 228 0 234 Pending 0 0 0 0 Conceptual 200 0 0 0 Stalled 330 0 0 0 Total Supply 1,791 228 320 234 II. HMA Hotel Supply Projection Delivery Near Term Planned and Proposed Delivery Projection Status Likelihood 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Under Construction 100% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% Approved 90% 0% 0% 47% 53% 0% 0% Pending 50% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Conceptual 50% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% Stalled 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% Projected Units Status Completed 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Under Construction 263 0 263 0 0 0 0 Approved 898 0 0 423 475 0 0 Pending 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Conceptual 100 0 0 0 0 0 100 Stalled 17 0 0 0 0 0 17 Market Areas TOTAL: 1,278 0 263 423 475 0 117 5-year projected near-term deliveries: 1,278 15007.00 Commercial P&P: Hotel Flow Chart THE CONCORD GROUP
EXHIBIT VII-7 PROJECTED HOTEL SUPPLY VS DEMAND TEMPE, ARIZONA 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Total Unit Deliveries by Geography North Tempe: 263 423 475 0 117 1,278 HMA Projected Future Deliveries: 263 423 475 0 117 1,278 Hotel Demand: 141 140 136 108 98 623 Total Hotel Demand 141 140 136 108 98 623 Over/Undersupply (122) (283) (339) 108 (19) (654) 500 Projected HMA Supply and Demand 450 **Does not include Subject Site** 400 350 Planned Delivery) 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Hotel Deliveries (Doors) Hotel Demand 15007.00 Commercial P&P: Hotel S v D The Concord Group
EXHIBIT VII-8 PRODUCT POSITIONING SUBJECT SITE TCG Recommendations - Upscale Hotel TCG Recommendations - Standard Hotel Comfort Suites Phoenix Airport Country Inn & Suites Phoenix Airport @ Tempe Springhill Suites Phoenix Tempe Airport Residence Inn Tempe Embassy Suites Phoenix Tempe aloft Hotel Tempe Hotel 1333 Hampton Inn & Suites Phoenix Tempe ASU Area Courtyard Tempe Downtown Hyatt Place Tempe Phoenix Airport Graduate Tempe Sheraton Hotel Phoenix Airport Tempe DoubleTree Phoenix Tempe Residence Inn Tempe Downtown University Marriott Phoenix Tempe @ The Buttes Tempe Mission Palms Hotel $80 $90 $100 $110 $120 $130 $140 $150 $160 $170 $180 $190 $200 $210 $220 $230 ADR ($) 15007.00 Hotel Comps: Recs The Concord Group