MARKET FORECAST 2015-2034 BOMBARDIER COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT COMMERCIALAIRCRAFT.BOMBARDIER.COM BOMBARDIER COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT MARKET FORECAST 2015-2034
FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS This presentation includes forward-looking statements, which may involve, but are not limited to: statements with respect to our objectives, guidance, targets, goals, priorities, our market and strategies, financial position, beliefs, prospects, plans, expectations, anticipations, estimates and intentions; general economic and business outlook, prospects and trends of an industry; expected growth in demand for products and services; product development, including projected design, characteristics, capacity or performance; expected or scheduled entry-into-service of products and services, orders, deliveries, testing, lead times, certifications and project execution in general; our competitive position; and the expected impact of the legislative and regulatory environment and legal proceedings on our business and operations. Forward-looking statements generally can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as may, will, expect, intend, anticipate, plan, foresee, believe, continue, maintain or align, the negative of these terms, variations of them or similar terminology. By their nature, forward-looking statements require us to make assumptions and are subject to important known and unknown risks and uncertainties, which may cause our actual results in future periods to differ materially from forecasted results. While we consider our assumptions to be reasonable and appropriate based on information currently available, there is a risk that they may not be accurate. For additional information with respect to the assumptions underlying the forward-looking statements made in this presentation, refer to the respective Guidance and forwardlooking statements section in the Aerospace section in the Management s Discussion and Analysis ( MD&A ) of the Corporation s annual report for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2014. Certain factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements include risks associated with general economic conditions, risks associated with our business environment (such as risks associated with the financial condition of the airline industry and major rail operators), operational risks (such as risks related to developing new products and services; doing business with partners; product performance warranty and casualty claim losses; regulatory and legal proceedings; the environment; dependence on certain customers and suppliers; human resources; fixed-price commitments and production and project execution), financing risks (such as risks related to liquidity and access to capital markets, exposure to credit risk, certain restrictive debt covenants, financing support provided for the benefit of certain customers and reliance on government support) and market risks (such as risks related to foreign currency fluctuations, changing interest rates, decreases in residual values and increases in commodity prices). For more details, see the Risks and uncertainties section in Other in the MD&A of the Corporation s annual report for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2014. Readers are cautioned that the foregoing list of factors that may affect future growth, results and performance is not exhaustive and undue reliance should not be placed on forward-looking statements. The forward-looking statements set forth herein reflect our expectations as at the date of this presentation and are subject to change after such date. Unless otherwise required by applicable securities laws, we expressly disclaim any intention, and assume no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. The forward-looking statements contained in this presentation are expressly qualified by this cautionary statement. All amounts in this presentation are expressed in 2014 U.S. dollars unless otherwise indicated. C Series, CS300, CS100, CRJ1000, CRJ900, CRJ700, Q400, Bombardier, Bombardier Commercial Aircraft, and The Evolution of Mobility are either Unregistered or Registered Trade-Mark(s) of Bombardier Inc. or its subsidiaries. BOMBARDIER COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT MARKET FORECAST 2015-2034 2
NORTH AMERICA AND EUROPE WILL REMAIN THE LARGEST ECONOMIES OVER THE NEXT 20 YEARS WORLD REAL GDP GROWTH % 2014 GDP RANK % CAGR 1.7% 2.5% 2.3% 5.5% 3.4% 3.7% 6.4% 2.4% 4.5% 2034 GDP RANK EUROPE 1 2 NORTH AMERICA 2 1 ASIA PACIFIC 3 4 GREATER CHINA 4 3 LATIN AMERICA 5 5 6 7 MIDDLE EAST 7 6 SOUTH ASIA CIS 8 9 9 8 AFRICA World Average 3.1% South Asia and Greater China will be the fastest growing economies BOMBARDIER COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT MARKET FORECAST 2015-2034 3
FUEL PRICES REMAIN VOLATILE BUT ARE FORECASTED TO INCREASE IN THE LONG-TERM OIL PRICES [2013 USD] $150 $120 $90 ACTUAL FORECAST Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Annual Energy Outlook 2015 $60 $30 $0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Airlines expectations of future fuel costs will impact fleet decisions BOMBARDIER COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT MARKET FORECAST 2015-2034 4
MORE SEATS ON AIRCRAFT FLOWN LONGER DISTANCES IS A TREND ACROSS ALL FLEET SEGMENTS AVERAGE SEATS PER DEPARTURE AVERAGE STAGE LENGTH [MILES] 4% 0% 163 169 128 5% 135 56 22% 68 45 25% 57 853 854 619 6% 655 464 4% 481 215 7% 230 150- TO 220- SEATS 100- TO 150- SEATS 20- TO 100- SEATS RJ 20- TO 100- SEATS TP 150- TO 220- SEATS 100- TO 150- SEATS 20- TO 100- SEATS RJ 20- TO 100- SEATS TP 2005 2014 2005 2014 20- to 100-seat aircraft have experienced the greatest shift to larger aircraft BOMBARDIER COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT MARKET FORECAST 2015-2034 5
COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT MARKET IS BUILDING MOMENTUM Commercial airlines are profitable and growing. The industry continues to evolve to manage growth, volatile fuel prices and increasing competition. Most new 60- to 150-seat aircraft deliveries to mature aviation markets will replace retiring aircraft fleets. In emerging markets, demand for air travel is growing with increasing GDP and an expanding middle class. Lower oil prices may permit airlines to delay the replacement or retirement of less efficient aircraft types, but in the long-term, fuel efficiency will remain a key driver of airline fleet decisions. Economic and technological obsolescence, as well as environmental regulations, are expected to drive aircraft retirements throughout the forecast. Bombardier is confident in the long-term prospect of our markets BOMBARDIER COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT MARKET FORECAST 2015-2034 6
OUR KEY MARKET DRIVERS SUGGEST A BRIGHT FUTURE FOR COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT ECONOMIC GROWTH OIL PRICE & VOLATILITY $ EMERGING MARKETS SCOPE CLAUSE RELAXATION MORE EFFICIENT AIRCRAFT ENVIRONMENTAL REGULATION & FEES Bombardier s portfolio of 60- to 150-seat solutions is well positioned to succeed BOMBARDIER COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT MARKET FORECAST 2015-2034 7
ECONOMIC GROWTH IS DRIVING COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT PENETRATION WORLDWIDE 20- TO 220-FLEET-SEAT PENETRATION FORECAST [1970-2014 (ACTUAL), 2015-2034 (FORECAST)] 10,000 FORECAST Fleet-seat per million capita - log scale 1,000 100 10 GDP Growth China South Asia Africa CIS Latin America TYPICAL GROWTH PATH Middle East Asia Pacific Europe North America Removal of Barriers 1 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 GDP per capita - USD log scale BOMBARDIER COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT MARKET FORECAST 2015-2034 8
60- TO 220-SEAT COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE In production In development Under study TURBOPROPS 60- TO 100-SEAT REGIONAL JETS 100- TO 150-SEAT 150- TO 220-SEAT MATURE OEMS EMERGING OEMS Q400 CRJ700 CRJ900 CRJ1000 CS100 CS300 ATR Airbus ATR72-600 A319 A320 A321 A319neo A320neo A321neo Boeing 737-700 737-800 737-900 737 MAX 7 737 MAX 8 737 MAX 9 Embraer E170 E175 E190 E195 E175-E2 E190-E2 E195-E2 Mitsubishi MRJ70 MRJ90 MRJ100 AVIC Comac MA700 ARJ21-700 ARJ21-900 C919 Sukhoi SSJ100-75 SSJ100-95 MS-21-200 MS-21-300 Irkut 9
WORLD 60- TO 150-SEAT FLEET FORECASTED TO GROW TO 15,000 UNITS BY 2034 20-YEAR COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT FLEET FORECAST 2014 Fleet Deliveries Retirements 2024 Fleet 2,900 5,700 + - 1,700 6,900 = 4,400 7,000 + - 3,300 8,100 = 60- to 100-seat 100- to 150-seat Total 60- to 150-seat 7,300 12,700 5,000 15,000 Regional Carriers will continue to up-gauge to 60- to 100-seat aircraft A broad renewal and growth of the 100- to 150-seat fleet is forecasted BOMBARDIER COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT MARKET FORECAST 2015-2034 10
ANNUAL 60- TO 150-SEAT REVENUES TO GROW TO $48B IN 2034 ANNUAL INDUSTRY REVENUES [$B] 100- TO 150- SEAT 60- TO 100- SEAT JETS $48 20 YEAR REVENUES 60- TO 100- SEAT TURBOPROPS $18 11 5 $28 19 38 5 5 2 4 5 $105 Billion 60- TO 100-SEAT JETS 100- TO 150-SEAT $460 Billion TOTAL $650 Billion $85 Billion 60- TO 100-SEAT TURBOPROPS 2005-2014 Average 2024 2034 $650 billion in revenues in the 60- to 150-seat market over the next 20 years BOMBARDIER COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT MARKET FORECAST 2015-2034 11
100- TO 150-SEAT RENEWAL WILL BE DRIVEN BY NORTH AMERICA AND EUROPE NORTH AMERICA 1,900 EUROPE 1,100 CIS 350 GREATER CHINA 1,550 LATIN AMERICA 700 AFRICA 200 MIDDLE EAST 300 SOUTH ASIA 400 ASIA PACIFIC 500 REGIONAL 20-YEAR 100- TO 150-SEAT DELIVERY FORECAST [UNITS, 2014-2034] Total 100- to 150-seat Deliveries: 7,000 Units Significant growth opportunity in Greater China BOMBARDIER COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT MARKET FORECAST 2015-2034 12
MATURE MARKETS REGIONAL FLEETS WILL BE RENEWED WITH 60- TO 100-SEAT AIRCRAFT NORTH AMERICA 1,700 EUROPE 1,000 CIS 250 GREATER CHINA 900 LATIN AMERICA 450 AFRICA 350 MIDDLE EAST 150 SOUTH ASIA 300 ASIA PACIFIC 600 REGIONAL 20-YEAR 60- TO 100-SEAT DELIVERY FORECAST [UNITS, 2014-2034] Total 60- to 100-seat Deliveries: 5,700 Units New regional networks will emerge in fast-growing markets BOMBARDIER COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT MARKET FORECAST 2015-2034 13
WE HAVE BUILT A LEADING PORTFOLIO OF COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT IN THE 60- TO 150-SEAT CATEGORY MODELS Q400 MARKET CATEGORY 50- to 90-seat turboprop COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGES Designed as a modern, 21st-century turboprop, the Q400 aircraft is the most recent development in the Q Series family of aircraft. It provides unmatched performance, operational flexibility and passenger comfort. While it s nimble enough for a steep approach, the Q400 aircraft is also tough enough to land on unpaved run It s a certified performer at high altitude airports too, like that of La Paz, Bolivia, one of the world s highest. Thanks to its combination of turboprop attributes, jet-like features, industry-leading passenger experience and environmental footprint, the Q400 aircraft is exceptionally versatile and can be adapted to a variety of business models. By offering a 30% reduction in fuel burn over the jets it often replaces, the Q400 aircraft radically reduces carbon emissions and increases cost efficiency. Its high-speed cruise -- 160 km/h faster than conventional turboprops -- places the aircraft s flight time within minutes of jet schedules, at the same seat cost as larger singleaisle jets. Its large propellers operate at a lower RPM, generating more power with less noise and making it a friendly option for city centres. The Q400 aircraft family includes over 60 owners and operators in almost 40 countries worldwide and the worldwide fleet has logged more than 6 million flight hours. With a dispatch reliability rate of over 99.5%, the aircraft has transported more than 370 million passengers worldwide. MODELS CRJ700, CRJ900 CRJ1000 MARKET CATEGORY 60- to 100-seat regional jets COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGES Every 10 seconds a CRJ Series regional jet takes off from the tarmac somewhere in the world. The family has transalmost 1.6 billion passengers to become the world s most successful regional jet program. Linking people and communities like no other, the CRJ Series family of regional jets has revolutionized aviation with its proven efficiency, reliability and profitability. The CRJ Series regional jets share commonality benefits that provide flexibility to operators and allow them to optimize their fleets to meet specific market demands. No other regional aircraft deliver this capability. Optimized for medium-haul regional routes, these aircraft can provide up to 10% cash operating cost advantage over competing jets. There are three models in the CRJ Series family of aircraft, each with its own distinct advantages. The CRJ700 is the lightest aircraft in its category, delivering impressive efficiency, performance and fuel burn savings. The CRJ900 offers tremendous flexibility and is ideally suited for growing markets, while the CRJ1000, with the highest capacity in the family, delivers the lowest seat-mile cost in the regional jet market and burns up to 13% less fuel than its competitors. Since its launch, the CRJ Series family of regional jets has stimulated the regional jet market. In North America alone, it accounts for over 20% of all jet departures. Globally, the family operates more than 200,000 flights per month. Simply put: the CRJ Series is efficiency, reliability and performance in numbers. MODELS CS100 CS300 MARKET CATEGORY 100- to 160-seat commercial jets COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGES The C Series family of aircraft is a 100% all-new design. The CS100 and the larger CS300 aircraft represent the fusion of performance and technology to offer operators potential savings of between USD$ 7.5 to 12 million per aircraft. In addition to delivering best-in-class economics with the C Series aircraft, Bombardier has placed considerable emphasis on cabin design to ensure an excellent passenger experience. The C Series aircraft s larger seats, overhead bins and windows create a widebody feel that offers passengers unparalleled comfort. The CS100 and CS300 aircraft have over 95% parts commonality, as well as the same type rating. The groundbreaking Pratt & Whitney PurePower PW1500G engine, combined with advanced aerodynamics, delivers reduced fuel burn, noise and emissions, increasing the aircraft s environmental and social compatibility. By focusing on the 100- to 150-seat market segment, Bombardier has designed the C Series aircraft to deliver unparalleled economic advantage to operators and to open up new opportunities for single-aisle aircraft operations. BOMBARDIER COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT MARKET FORECAST 2015-2034 14
RESOURCES Ascend Fleets IHS Global Insight World Economic Outlook, January 2015 Innovata US Energy Information Administration (EIA) BOMBARDIER COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT MARKET FORECAST 2015-2034 15