Future of ATM Peter Sorensen Director, Europe Safety, Operations & Infrastructure To represent, lead and serve the airline industry 1 1
Air Traffic Management (ATM) Management of aircraft and airspace Infrastructure and services Current ATM systems Evolve to meet demand NextGen & SESAR Global Media Day 2009 2 Air Traffic Management is the integrated management of air traffic and airspace using an appropriate aviation infrastructure and services. Poor ATM causes delays that are costly and disruptive for the airlines. The industry (IATA) vision is for an integrated, harmonized and globally interoperable ATM system Current ATM systems around the world must evolve to meet current and future demand The two major projects for the US and Europe are NextGen and SESAR Notes on presentation: Aviation Infrastructure. Aviation infrastructure includes the communication, navigation and surveillance systems necessary to allow the safe management and control of aircraft. Deficiencies in the aviation infrastructure can be unsafe, inefficient and costly for the airlines and passengers. SESAR The SESAR programme is the European ATM modernization program. Combining technological, economic and regulatory aspects it will use the Single European Sky (SES) legislation to synchronize the plans and actions of the different stakeholders. The objective is to develop and implement ATM improvements throughout Europe (utilizing both airborne and ground systems) Single European Sky Europe s air traffic management system is hampered by different and rigid working practices and constrained by air route networks that, in the main, are based on national borders and not air traffic flows. The Single European Sky initiative puts forward a legislative approach with the following objectives: To restructure European Airspace as a function of air traffic flows, rather than according to national borders To create additional capacity and to increase efficiency The Next Generation Air Transportation System. NextGen, short for the Next Generation Air Transportation System, refers to a wide-ranging initiative to transform the air traffic control system in the US. It focuses on leveraging new technologies such as satellite-based navigation, surveillance, and networking. The initiative involves meaningful collaboration among government departments and agencies, as well as companies in the aerospace and related industries. The following key US government agencies are driving the NextGen work: FAA, NASA, the departments of Transportation, Defense, Homeland Security, Commerce, and the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy. 2 2
Air Traffic Management (ATM) NextGen and SESAR: Increase efficiency and safety Reduce delays, emissions and costs Multi-billion dollar programs Now until 2020-2025 Global Media Day 2009 3 The objective of both SESAR and NextGen are to increase efficiency and safety and reduce delays emissions and costs Both are multi-billion dollar projects that are due to be introduced incrementally from now until 2020-2025 Notes on presentation: The SESAR Master Plan is divided into three Implementation Phases (IPs): IP1 covers the period 2008 to 2013. It is largely based on planned programs of EUROCONTROL combined with the local initiatives of Air Navigation Service Providers The first update of the European ATM Master Plan is scheduled for Mar 2010 IP2 covers the period from 2013 to 2020 and is designed to implement the Target Concept by timely implementation of all required activities IP3 covers the period from 2020 onwards to achieve further performance enhancement of the overall system by introducing advanced features such as 4D trajectories NextGen has a three-phased approach. Phase 1 (2007-2011) - Core technologies, capabilities, system engineering Phase 2 (2012-2018) - Transition aircraft and infrastructure with hard upgrades Phase 3 (2019-2025) - System integration & operational implementation Concept of Operations (CONOPS) consists of solution-sets developed by government agencies assisted by industry co-chairs in various working groups. These include: Trajectory-based operations involving 4D trajectories, ADS-B (new surveillance technology) and Airborne Separation Assistance Systems (aircraft maintain their own separation against one another) Increase arrival-departure throughput at high-density airports Improve collaboration with airlines for ATM Reduce weather impact (70% of all delays are weather related) System Wide Information Management (SWIM), an information network that includes core services of aeronautical information, flight data weather, surveillance, national airspace system status, airport mapping and surveillance 3 3
Costs and benefits SESAR total cost of 30 billion NextGen total cost $42 billion Win-Win-Win-Win Capacity increase Emissions reduction Enhanced safety Cost reduction Global Media Day 2009 4 The total costs for SESAR equates to 30.00 billion, of which an avionics investment cost for the airlines is estimated at 11.53 billion with two upgrades of the fleet around 2013 and 2017 The promulgated SESAR benefits are: 73% increase in capacity (base 2004) 50% reduction in costs (base 2004) 10% reduction in emissions (base 2005) The cost for NextGen is between US$42 billion of which an avionics investment cost of US$14-20 billion (Note US$42 billion is about 28 billion Euro so the costs are comparable) The promulgated NextGen benefits are: Increase capacity, efficiency, safety and security Flight delays reduced by 35 40% (by 2018) Key stakeholders are reliant on SESAR and NextGen being a success. Stakeholders include, the travelling public, airspace users and civil society. The operation of SESAR and NextGen directly influences the economy and the environment Industry is relying and investing in these projects so they have to deliver The critical elements must be: Effective project management in place Effective governance in place And the two systems must be harmonized The need for a proactive approach is a must. Impact assessments have identified the possible results of not proceeding in this way System overload, delays and increased CO2. This is unacceptable to the passengers, the operators and the environment The FAA states that without NextGen there will be gridlock in the skies. They estimate that by 2022 this failure would cost the US economy US$22 billion annually in lost economic activity. That number grows to over US$40 billion by 2033 And other regions must keep pace. The airline industry is a global industry that requires global solutions to ensure the seamlessness of airline operations. Global operations and technological interoperability should not be hampered by ground-based deficiencies 4 4
Key IATA work areas Optimum altitudes Flexible routings Flexible Use of Airspace (FUA) Global Media Day 2009 5 As we work to transition to NextGen and SESAR we must not forget the critical importance of evolving our current day to day operation Fuel costs and CO2 emissions have become two of the most import elements of airline operations In some airlines the cost of fuel equates to as much as 35% of the operating budget of the airline and environmental trading schemes are looming Therefore it is essential that aircraft are able to operate as efficiently as possible by flying at optimum altitudes and being able to operate flexibly from point to point. It must be understood that the challenge of effective ATM is not restricted to one airport, one sector, or one country. It is the end-toend management of traffic across different airspace regions that matters 5 5
LIMITATIONS OF CONVENTIONAL CRUISING LEVELS Optimum Altitude Unavailable Next Available 4,000 ft lower 450 kg/hr penalty (B744) Next Available 8,000 ft lower Global Media Day 2009 6 1200 kg/hr penalty All aircraft - regardless of generation - are engineered to fly at an optimum altitude. If they are not at this optimum altitude their fuel performance suffers - and the further away they are at the optimum altitude - the greater the inefficiency and fuel wastage Air traffic management constraints often deny an airplane from flying its optimum level. For example, the penalty of flying 4000ft below the optimum profile on a 4-engine wide-body aircraft could be as much as 450kg of fuel or 1400kg of CO2 per hour Put in perspective of a 9h45 flight London-Miami, a 5 hour penalty at 4000ft below optimum would increase the burn off by 2300kg. This nearly wipes out the entire fuel reserves that could in fact lead to a flight diversion Long-range flights are more sensitive to non-optimum flight level penalties 6 6
From fixed tracks to point to point Global Media Day 2009 7 More flexible routings for airlines by flying point to point as opposed to being constrained to airways This more flexible operations is more easily implemented in less dense airspace. One example is shown here for a flight from San Paulo to Dubai The fixed track used today is shown in black (restricted by airways and reporting points). The red track is the route if the aircraft can fly point to point The savings are 18 minutes per flight and 7700 kg of fuel Notes on presentation: Optimum Lateral flight trajectories are influenced by many variables. They are mainly affected by upper winds and can vary by time of day, season, movement of high & low pressure systems etc. Airlines need to have the flexibility to plan an optimized route on a flight-by-flight basis. IATA has identified potential savings of 24 million tonnes CO2 per year following incremental work over 5+ years. 7 7
Flexible use of airspace Sharing a scarce resource Civil/Military coordination Increasing capacity of the ATM system Creating one continuum User requirements allocation Global Media Day 2009 8 Airspace is a valuable commodity and must be shared by all airspace users IATA works closely with the civil and military airspace development processes across the globe to make airspace and shorter routes available whenever possible We encourage and assist airlines to develop their tools and procedures to use airspace released by the military With modern internet technology the airspace coordinators are able to plan and assess airspace in a more dynamic way sharing the information among all partners to enable better use to be made of it Building up the confidence of the Military that the civil side will not take without giving it back is essential Military users have committed to improved planning on the day before operation and to give timely advice of the airspace release The results are increased availability of shorter routes with the savings in fuel and CO2 emissions 8 8
Key points ATM evolution must succeed Projects must remain high profile Key stakeholders engaged Airline investment Properly used and appropriate ROI Global Media Day 2009 9 The key points from this presentation: The ATM evolution must succeed Both projects must remain high level especially in the current climate when traffic figures have declined - but they will raise again Key stakeholders, mainly the politicians, must help ensure SESAR and NextGen are a success The airline investment is a key factor to make SESAR and NextGen work Airlines are committed. But there must be transparent business cases for the implementation and fitting of technology and an appropriate return on investment must be delivered In anticipation of traffic growth and airspace congestion, the airlines have been calling for ATM improvements since the early 1990s. SESAR and NextGen are the programs taking the lead in finally getting to grips with achieving more efficient ATM. Both programs must deliver the expected results 9 9
Future of ATM Peter Sorensen Director, Europe Safety, Operations & Infrastructure To represent, lead and serve the airline industry 10 10