Future ATM Concepts & Technology R. John Hansman Director MIT International Center for Air Transportation rjhans@mit.edu
Future = Post NextGen & SESAR Initial Implementation
Simple Feedback Model of System Adaptation Predictive, Reactive, Catalytic Transitions Disturbances Demand Performance Precipitating Change Event or Condition Implementation System Capability Monitoring & Forecasting Aggregate Inefficiency Metrics Media Selected Actions Change Process Corrective Actions Transformative Actions Stakeholder Awarness Aviation Community Loop Public Pressure Loop Public Awareness
Catalytic Example MH370 - Global Aircraft Tracking ICAO Proposal for 15 min reporting in remote areas and ICAO Global Aeronautical Distress and Safety System (GADSS) Technology Independent Multiple Potential Technologies Existing FANS 1A CPDLC Packages Satellite ACARS Satellite Based ADS-B (Inmarrsat/NavCanada) Satellite Orbit Configurations Geocentric (Inmarrsat) High orbit, broad coverage per sat, issue at high latitudes Polar (Iridium) Low orbit, limited coverage per sat, good high latitude coverage Operational Benefits Unclear Potential to leverage tracking for ATM Benefits
Emergent Drivers for ATM Modernization Demand Economic Growth Access to Air Transportation Safety Catalytic Events (Grand Canyon, Los Ceritos, MH370) Capacity Delays Cost Fuel Efficiency Environmental Impact Demand System Capability Implementation Selected Actions Change Process Corrective Actions Disturbances Performance # Operations Throughput RPM, RTM Flight Hours # Airports Stakeholder Awarness Aviation Community Loop Monitoring & Forecasting Aggregate Inefficiency Metrics Safety & Capacity Drivers
Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPK) by World Region NextGen Origin Data source: ICAO/IATA
Flight Delay Trends US Data NextGen Origin Data source: FAA Operational Network (OPSNET) (data through Jan 14)
Consumer Complaints from 1998 to 2011 NextGen Origin Data source: DOT Aviation Consumer Protection Division (Data through Jun-11)
Crude Oil and Jet Fuel Price Trends NextGen Origin Data sources: EIA Independent Statistics & Analysis (Data through December 2014)
Additional Drivers for Modernization: Environmental Concerns Noise Emissions Stage 4 (Equipment) Airports (Capacity) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Costs 260 FAA Ops Cost/ARTCC Ops 240 220 Then Year Dollars 200 180 160 140 120 100 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Data source: FAA Budget and Administrators Fact Book
Future = Post NextGen & SESAR Initial Implementation
Future Technologies After the NextGen/SESAR investment there will be limited interest in another round of air/ground technology investment We will be constrained by the performance levels incorporated in the Standards and equipment defined by NextGen/SESAR Most technological changes will come from exogenous technical development Cloud based systems Wireless systems Optimization
NextGen-SESAR CNS Technologies
Performance Based Navigation RNAV and RNP >90% air carrier fleet >30% air carrier fleet
ADS-B (1 sec update) Radar Tracks Other Aircraft Global Navigation Satellite System Coverage Volume Aircraft Cockpit Air to Air ADS-B Out Position & intent broadcast from aircraft to ground or other aircraft Air to Ground Air Vehicle Component ADS-B In Information transmitted from ground to the aircraft Avionics Integration Cockpit-Based Applications Self-separation Equivalent VFR operations Traffic & runway awareness Airspace, weather, terrain awareness Precision Navigation Cockpit ATC Operating Procedures Ground Component ATC Integration ATC-Based Applications Surveillance Separation procedures Trajectory-based operations Air Traffic Control
Source: NavCanada Satellite Based ADS-B North Atlantic Application
Source: NavCanada ADS-B Iridium Orbital Constellation
System Wide Information Management Source: FAA
Source: SITA Voice Datalink Mode 2 VHF Network
Capabilities NextGen User Benefits Dependent Upon Approved Applications and Operational Capabilities Applications Stakeholder Benefits stk 1 stk 2 stk 3 b 1 (t) Aircraft Operational Capability Operational Procedures Application 1 Application 2 b 2 (t) b 3 (t) benefits Level of Benefit/Cost Significant Some/Indirect ATC Operational Capability. Application x c 1 (t) stk 1 stk 2 stk 3 None/ Insignificant c 2 (t) ADS-B as NextGen Pathfinder Airborne Equipage Requirement Certification and Procedures c 3 (t) costs Disaggregate benefit/cost approach adapted from Marias and Weigel
Operating Procedures are the critical element in the integration triad If procedures are not updated to reflect that NextGen capabilities then there there is limited benefit and limited stakeholder buy-in Importance of NextGen Procedure Development NextGen and SESAR will provide the technical infrastructure. Need to develop processes to approve innovative operational procedures. Ground Infrastructure Operational Procedures Aircraft Capability
Feedback Model of System Transition Demand System Capability System Behavior Catalytic Event Implementation Process Safety and Environmental Approval Processes Awareness Building Process Capability Options Solution Refinement Loop Stakeholder Awareness Public Awareness Change Process Selected Actions Collective Decision Making Negotiation Loop Stakeholder Preferences Objective Formation Stakeholder Values, Context Transition Model : Alexandra Mozdznowska
Safety Management System (SMS)Classification of Severity & Likelihood Extremely Remote = (quantitative) 1x10-7 to 1x10-9 Hazardous = Serious or fatal injury to small number of occupants or cabin crew Target risk classified by ATO Safety Management System standards Hazardous assumption & 10-7 assumption Risk also compared to ground fatality risk from commercial aviation Frequency approximately 1x10-7 fatalities/hr due to Part 91 ops
RNAV application at Boston Logan R22R Departures Pre-RNAV RNAV - 2012 RNAV - 2014 Source: Massport
SESAR Essential Operational Changes
Future Concepts Absent catalytic events the system will change by evolution and adaptation Adapt to NextGen/SESAR technologies Strong NextGen/SESAR concepts will survive if they can be made operational System will adapt to emerging drivers Point capacity limits Environmental drivers (Noise, GHG) Cost will emerge as key driver Concept Types Evolutionary (e.g. Optimization and Refinement) Obvious but Politically Difficult (e.g. Dynamic Facility Consolidation) High Payoff, Out There (e.g. Formation Ops)
Meta Optimization CDM-2 Evolution of CDM at both Tactical and Strategic level Enabled by SWIM Data Mining, New Optimization Approaches Communication Systems and Cloud Increase Capacity and Improve Operational Efficiency ATM Service Providers Realtime and predictive capacities Smoothed matched demand Dynamic Airspace Reallocation Stochastic vs.. Deterministic Approaches Predictability and Robustness Airlines Increased predictability and efficiency Requires real time optimization and internal prioritization
Speed Optimization Example Max Range Cruise (MRC):
Obvious but Politically Difficulty Dynamic Facility Consolidation Cost, Efficiency and Robustness Opportunity Technically Feasible ZSE ZMP ZOA ZLC ZDV ZKC ZAU ZBW ZOB ZNY ZID ZDC ZLA ZAB ZFW ZME ZTL ZJX ZHU ZMA
TRACONS
Out There Concepts Enabling Advanced Formation Operations Enroute Fuel Efficiency, Reduced Costs/Labor Terminal Runway Throughput Need to work formation issues Need to work failure cases ADS-B performance standards not sufficient DO 260B
Formation Approaches Lateral vs. Longitudinal Wake Vortex Separation 28L 28R Limited Reduction Possible in Longitudinal Separation due to Vortex Dynamics 20-30 % Throughput Improvement Lateral Position of Wake well known close to aircraft Close Dependent Parallel Approaches or Formation Approaches enabled by accurate guidance technologies 100-200% Throughput Improvement
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