NEXTOR Annual Research Symposium November 14, 1997 Session III Issues for the Future of ATM Synthesis of a Future ATM Operational Concept Aslaug Haraldsdottir, Boeing
ATM Concept Baseline Definition Aslaug Haraldsdottir et.al. NEXTOR First Annual Research Symposium FAA Headquarters November 14, 1997 11/14/1997 1
Introduction This statement of work describes a task that will define and document the probable evolution of the National Airspace System (NAS) through the year 2015, based on current documents and on-going work by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), and industry. (Project Statement of Work, drafted December 1996) (Work commenced in early May 1997) 11/14/1997 2
Project Participants FAA Operational Concept Development Team NASA Ames, AATT Program Boeing Commercial Airplane Group (Seattle) NEXTOR (FAA Center of Excellence in ATM Operations Research) MIT Berkeley 11/14/1997 3
Preliminary Design Questions How big should it be? capacity, access How much can it cost? capital investment, operational efficiency, productivity and maintenance How well must it perform? safety, sustainability 11/14/1997 4
Mission, Requirements, Concepts and Architecture Traffic Demand Scenarios Alternative Operational Concepts Mission Requirement Stakeholder Objectives Safety Constraints Goals Safety Capacity Efficiency Concept Development Enroute Term/Surface Aircraft Revise Concept Synthesis System Design and Implementation Required Performance Analysis : P, RNP, RMP erational rovements Human Factors and Operations Available and Emerging Technologies Concept Evaluation Technology Alternatives Safety Analysis Economic Analysis Revise Performance Metrics System Development and Integration Architecture Simulation Prototyping Decision ATM System Specs Concept Definition Evaluaton 11/14/1997 5
NAS Capacity Study - Notional Capacity Effects Airspace Capacity Limit (Theoretical) Current NAS Future NAS Waste Operating Integrity Threshold??? CNS/ATM Benefit??? Critical Year??? Time (Air Traffic Growth) Source: American Airline NAS Capacity Study, 1997 11/14/1997 6
NAS Capacity Study Conclusions Cost Avoidance as Basis of Infrastructure Investment 4% Percent Growth in Enplanements and 2.3% Annualized Traffic Growth Airspace Delays will Dramatically Constrain Airline Operations and Scheduling Opportunities in the Next Decade Northeast triangle, Southeast and Southwest Regions Acute Reducing Separations (7 nm to 3 nm En Route; 4 nm to 2 nm in the Terminal; Wake Vortex from 4.5-1.9 to 2.5-1.5) and Adding Departure Runways can Provide 25+ Years of Operation Source: American Airline NAS Capacity Study, 1997 11/14/1997 7
ATM System Functional Structure Planning Execution r Schedule of Capacities Desired Sector Loads Clearance Requests Clearance Requests AOC Filed Flight Plans National Flow Planning Approved Flight Plans Facility Flow Planning Planned Flow Rates Sector Traffic Planning Approved Handoffs Sector Traffic Control Vectors Clearances Aircraft Guidance and Navigation Aircr light hedule hrs - day hrs 5-20 min Negotiate Handoffs 5 min < 5 min Traffic Sensor CFMU TMU D-side R-side Real State Plan/Intent Measurement Requests AC State Sensor Pilot Other Aircraft States Efficiency Throughput Safety Increasing Criticality Level 11/14/1997 8
Separation Standard and Performance Factors urce-constrained Effective Theoretical Effective Resource-Constrained tervention Rate Intervention Detection NP, RMP, RCP RMP, RCP RMP lay ther ium-term Intent Controller m: g/g t Rates pace Complexity Sensor Display Short-Term Intent Controller Comm: a/g Pilot Closure Rate Sensor Display Controller Pilot Required Element Performance RxP = f (sensors, decision support, human) Required System Performance sets Separation Standard RSP = g ( RCP, RMP, RNP ) 11/14/1997 9
Alternative Operational Concepts 2015 NAS Precision, Trajectory-Based Separation Assurance Current NAS Traffic Density TMA Radar Vectoring Free Flight En Route Radar Control Strategic Concepts (eg, CATMAC) Procedural Control Short-Term Medium-Term Traffic Planning Horizon Long-Term 11/14/1997 10
Proposed CNS/ATM Technologies Planning Execution le Schedule of Capacities Desired Sector Loads CPDLC Clearance Requests Voice AOC Filed Flight Plans NASWIS r atus National Flow Planning hrs - day AOCNET CDM Delay Est. Approved Flight Plans Facility Flow Planning hrs CTAS SMA Planned Flow Rates Sector Traffic Planning 5-20 min UPR URET CTAS SMA Approved Handoffs Negotiate Handoffs Traffic Control 5 min CTAS ATN Radar Net CPDLC Clearances Vectors Voice AC State Sensor Tracker ADS-A ADS-B Aircraft Guidance and Navigation < 5 min Traffic Sensor ADS-B CDTI ACA Airc Other Aircraf States 11/14/1997 11
CNS/ATM Transition Logic Diagram NAS Arr/Dep Trans (4) Improved Throughput Capacity Close Routes Criteria Final Approach Spacing Tool RNP0.3 Nav Reduced Lateral Spacings: More Arr & Dep Trans Reduced Separation Buffer (Ground Vectoring) RMP 0.3 Surv Airspace Design Radar Trackers TFM Seq Spacing Tool RTA Short Term C.A. CDTI Reduced Separation Buffer (A/C Guidance) RMP0.1 Surv A/G Data Link ADS-B (A/G) Reduced Horizontal Separation Standard RNP0.1 Nav 11/14/1997 12
Future System Thrusts Uniform CNS Infrastructure Throughout NAS Performance-Based Access to Airspace and Services Airspace Configured Dynamically Based on Density Level Precision Trajectory-Based Separation Assurance User Flexibility in Low Density Airspace Collaborative Flow Management Separation Assurance Remains Shared Between Air and Ground 11/14/1997 13
Conclusions 1 Traffic growth predictions indicate NAS traffic gridlock by 2006 terminal area will be the primary choke point airline hubbing operations become infeasible costs escalate and economic growth is hampered 2 Current approach to NAS modernization will not accommodate the predicted growth pace is too slow to respond to market needs system development process is inadequate technology driven to point solutions 11/14/1997 14
Recommendations 1 NAS capacity must be increased additional/reliever airports and runways, and higher terminal area traffic density improvements in communications, navigation and surveillance for reduced separations changes in the separation assurance work system to achieve capacity goals coordinated traffic flow management that supports higher capacity and efficiency 2 A major change is needed in the system development process high-level trades before major design decisions concept validation must incorporate human factors and technology determine level of risk and criticality requirements, ground and air 11/14/1997 15