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Introduction Structure Demographic Dynamics in Africa Determinants of the Demographic Transition Human Development Payoffs Jobs Payoffs Economic Growth in Africa Policies to Speed up the Demographic Transition Policies to Reap the Demographic Dividend 2
Total Fertility Rate Total Fertility Rate in Select World Regions, 1960 2010 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Sub-Saharan Africa East Asia & Pacific Europe & Central Asia Latin America & Caribbean Middle East & North Africa North America South Asia World Source: Health, Nutrition and Population Statistics. The World DataBank 2013. 3
Great Heterogeneity in Fertility Transition Total Fertility Rates 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Mauritius Réunion Gabon Togo Senegal Malawi Niger South Africa Lesotho Ghana Comoros DRC Cape Verde Namibia Ethiopia Gambia Zambia Botswana Zimbabwe Congo Mozambique Chad Swaziland Côte d'ivoire Sierra Leone Uganda Sao Tome and Principe Burundi Guinea-Bissau Somalia Sudan Equatorial Guinea Mali Cameroon Liberia Eritrea Rwanda Mauritania Guinea Kenya Benin Madagascar Tanzania CAR Nigeria Angola Burkina Faso 4
Fertility Reduction The Demographic Dividend Pure age structure effects Behavioral effects Female labor supply Investments in child health and education Longevity and saving Dividend not automatic extra resources must be productively employed Dividend must be earned by investments 5
Ratio of Working Age to Dependents Working Age Share Projections 3 Ratio of Working Age to Dependents Sub Saharan Africa 2.5 East Asia South Asia 2 1.5 1 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Year Source: World Bank Medium Fertility Variant 6
Probabilistic Projections of Fertility 7
Proximate Determinates of Fertility Source: Madhavan et al 2013. Data Source: Various DHSs. 8
Proximate Determinants of Fertility Change From Madhavan et al 2013. Data Source: Various DHS. 9
Policies to Promote Fertility Decline Decrease Child Mortality *World Development Indicator Data. 2010 10
Mortality Transition Under 5 Mortality per 1000 Births Below 50 50-99 100-149 150-199 200-249 Réunion Namibia Comoros Guinea Chad Mauritius Botswana Tanzania Cameroon Cape Verde Madagascar Kenya Zambia Eritrea Gambia Nigeria Ghana Ethiopia Niger Sao Tome and Princip Swaziland Burundi Gabon Congo Burkina Faso South Africa Lesotho Equatorial Guinea Zimbabwe Togo Angola Senegal Mauritania CAR Sudan Côte d'ivoire Sierra Leone Liberia Somalia Uganda DRC Rwanda Mali Benin Guinea-Bissau Malawi Mozambique 11
Fertility Rates by Women s Education Data from various Demographic and Health Surveys.
Education of Women by Birth Year: Ethiopia 0 1 2 3 4 5 1960 1970 1980 1990 Birth Cohort No Coverage Partial Coverage Full Coverage 13
Demographic Dividend is not Automatic Depends on effective policies in other areas Education Labor market Trade Governance Macroeconomic management Demography creates supply side increases in labor, human capital, and saving but there is still a need for jobs and investment
Fertility Rates by Mother s Education Data from various Demographic and Health Surveys.
Female Education Is a Major Diver of Fertility Rates 16
Education of Women by Birth Year: Ethiopia 0 1 2 3 4 5 1960 1970 1980 1990 Birth Cohort No Coverage Partial Coverage Full Coverage 17
Male-Female Education Gap in Sub-Saharan Africa-- Secondary Enrollment 18
3 Infant Mortality Adjusted RRR: Age of Mother at Birth 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 12-14 years 15-19 years 20-24 years 25-29 years (Reference) 30-34 years 35-39 years 40-44 years 45-49 years
Short Birth Spacing Increases Infant Mortality 5 Adjusted Relative Risk by Birth Interval 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 7-11 months 12-17 months 18-23 months 24-29 months 30-35 months 36-47 months (ref) 48-59 months 60-95 months >95 months 20
Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa 6 Annual Growth Rates GDP & GDP per capita 5 4 3 2 1 0-1 1961-1965 1966-1970 1971-1975 1976-1980 1981-1985 1986-1990 1991-1995 1996-2000 2001-2005 2006-2010 -2-3 GDP growth GDP per capita growth 21
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Economic Consequences The Demographic Dividend Working age share 30 50 year boost Labor force per capita Investments in Child Health Education Female Labor Force Participation Savings 23
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Yearly Cohort 15-24 (Million) Increasing Youth Cohorts In Sub Saharan Africa 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Eastern Asia South-Central Asia Sub-Saharan Africa 24
Impact of large youth cohorts Youth Unemployment Underemployment in unpaid and low productivity jobs Slows industrialization and structural transformation, youth are absorbed in low productivity sectors such as agriculture Requires high levels of investment to maintain capital labor ratio 25
DRC Total Population Under Different Scenarios 26
DRC Working Age Share of the Population 27
DRC Average Years of Schooling of the Workforce 28
DRC Share of Workers not in Agriculture Key: 29
DRC PPP Income per Capita 30
Goals Polices Speed the Demographic Transition To empower women and allow fertility choices Child mortality, female education, social norms, access to family planning Realizing the Labor Force Dividend To absorb Youth Bulge FDI, domestic saving, natural resource revenues education, infrastructure, Industrialization (Agriculture and natural resources not sufficient) Realizing the Savings Dividend Harness the 2 nd dividend Improve policies and institutions for promoting domestic savings and investment 31