ACI-NA Commissioners Conference Air Service Development in a Tough Market Damon Hylton Vice President May 19, 2008
Today s Agenda Background Now What? Questions and Answers 2
Background 3
Current Industry Environment The airline industry is preparing for a brutal 2008 Poor economy is reducing travel demand Fuel shock is impacting nearly all carriers $1 increase in barrel crude = $10M for AirTran, $80M for American Fuel costs and poor economy are wreaking havoc on airline industry Eight carriers out of business: MAXjet, Big Sky, Aloha, ATA, Skybus, EOS, Champion, Air Midwest Frontier in bankruptcy United is actively talking about retiring several airplanes AirTran has modified 2008 growth from 20% to flat (or even less) At least one major U.S. merger is expected in 2008 Northwest and Delta are supposed to merge Other carriers may look to merge once the first merger takes place Mergers=reduced capacity and higher fares across the industry! 4
Impact of Fuel on Profitability Fuel will have a very negative impact on route profitability In 2Q 2000, fuel made up 14% of operating expenses; today it is nearly 40% Estimated Long-Haul Profit & Loss of Two Roundtrips/Day Year-Round Based on 3Q 2007 Costs per U.S. DOT Form 41 $60 per Barrel $120 per Barrel Passengers/Dep 121 121 Load Factor 88% 88% Average One-Way Fare $147 $162 Passenger Revenue $17,787 $19,566 Total Cost $17,265 $21,807 Profit/(Loss) Trip $522 ($2,241) Profit/(Loss) Year $ 762,120 $ (3,272,298) 5
U.S. Capacity Trend Nov. 08 versus Nov. 07, U.S. capacity will be down 5% Overall U.S. Domestic Weekly Seats November 2007 - November 2008 17,762,526 (5)% 16,904,975 Weekly Seats 7-Nov 7-Dec 8-Jan 8-Feb 8-Mar 8-Apr 8-May 8-Jun 8-Jul 8-Aug 8-Sep 8-Oct 8-Nov Source: APGDat Internet-Based Aviation Data Portal 6
U.S. Capacity Trend Nov. 08 versus Nov. 07, U.S. capacity will be down 5% Overall U.S. Domestic Weekly Seats November 2007 - November 2008 17,762,526 (5)% 16,904,975 Weekly Seats A loss of 5% represents 44M seats annually. That s about 37M passengers per year! 7-Nov 7-Dec 8-Jan 8-Feb 8-Mar 8-Apr 8-May 8-Jun 8-Jul 8-Aug 8-Sep 8-Oct 8-Nov Source: APGDat Internet-Based Aviation Data Portal 7
Overall U.S. Capacity - Gains Far fewer markets will see seat gains this year U.S. Airports With a Gain in Seats November vs. November % Seat # of Airports Increase '07 vs '06 '08 vs '07 Change 1%-5% 36 28 (8) 5%-9% 33 11 (22) 10%-19% 36 11 (25) 20% - 49% 21 8 (13) 50%+ 8 6 (2) Total 134 64 (70) Source: APGDat Internet-Based Aviation Data Portal, U.S. airports with more than 300 daily seats 8
Overall U.S. Capacity - Losses And many more will see seats losses versus last year U.S. Airports With a Loss in Seats November vs. November % Seat # of Airports Decrease '07 vs '06 '08 vs '07 Change (1)%-(5)% 44 62 18 (5)%-(9)% 22 41 19 (10)%-(19)% 22 40 18 (20)% - (49)% 9 15 6 (50)%+ 0 1 1 Total 97 159 62 Source: APGDat Internet-Based Aviation Data Portal, U.S. airports with more than 300 daily seats 9
Overall U.S. Capacity Outlook The worst may be yet to come... Merrill Lynch Equity Research, May 8, 2008 Energy price rise poses material risk only so much can be done without substantially reducing domestic capacity. We continue to believe that there is likely to be another large cut to domestic capacity in 2H 2008 if the industry does not see any relief from record high prices. 10
Carrier Comments Carriers are candid about the difficulties they are having Recent Comments by Planners at Successful Low Cost Airlines We have a plan that can make money when fuel is at $90, or maybe even $95 per barrel, but I am not sure what we ll do if it stays at $125 [per barrel]. We are all now driven by the need to survive rather than the desire to succeed. 11
Now What? 12
Focus Resources Air service development efforts have to fit the environment Focus on maintaining current service Monitor your fundamentals Communicate with the carriers Target resources to aggressively and creatively address poorly performing markets Act quickly saving service is easier than replacing it Even in tough markets there can be opportunities for new service - practice tactful persistence 13
Community, Community, Community Community support critical to air service development Requires well structured process with clear objectives Educate your community on what is coming Define what is at stake soul search on the value of air service to your community Dig out valuable information to take to the carriers 14
New Models Needed Traditional models are inadequate for current environment Dominant models of fee waivers / co-operative marketing funds fall well short Communities must recognize the value to their economy of air service and be creative in sharing that with the airlines Revenue guarantees, travel banks, etc... are closer to what is needed, but are rarely used, sometimes poorly done and often very contentious Carriers are fighting to survive, partner with them for win-wins 15
Questions and Answers Damon Hylton Office: 703-748-9890 Damon.Hylton@apgnet.com