Trends in Biodiversity Indicators

Significant Technical Help: Keith Olsen Etsuko Nonaka Rob Pabst Rebecca Kennedy Jonathan Brooks Mike McGrath Matt Gregory

Northern Spotted Owl 1996

Northern Spotted Owl Base Policy - 2046

Northern Spotted Owl Base Policy - 2096

Western Bluebird 1996

Western Bluebird Base Policy - 2046

Western Bluebird Base Policy - 2096

Olive-Sided Flycatcher 1996

Olive-Sided Flycatcher Base Policy - 2046

Olive-Sided Flycatcher Base Policy - 2096

Old-Growth Habitat 1996

Old Growth Habitat Base Policy - 2046

Old Growth Habitat Base Policy - 2096

Change in Indicators for Coast Range for 100 Year Simulation under Base Practice Moderate-High Habitat Quality for Owls, Old Growth, and Canopy Lichen Indices Percent of Coast Range 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 NSO OG Lichen 0 1996 2021 2056 2071 2096 Model Year

Change in Percent of Habitat for Coast Range for 100 Year Simulation under Base Practice Low-Moderate Habitat Quality for Western Bluebird and Olivesided Flycatcher Indices Percent of Coast Range 30 25 20 15 10 5 WBB OSFC 0 1996 2021 2056 2071 2096 Model Year

Thinning effects at Landscape Scales Simulate Federal Lands With and without Thinning

Comparison of Federal Thin and No-Thin Alternatives Entire Coast Range Area of Stands with Mean Diameter > 75 cm (30 in) Hectares 400000 350000 300000 250000 200000 150000 } Base NFT 58,000 ha 143,000 ac 100000 50000 0 initial 25 50 75 100 Simulation Age

Wildlife Tree Retention Effects Simulate Increased Rentention on Private Lands

Comparison of Alternatives % Coast Range 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Northern Spotted Owl BSE NFT RET 1996 25 50 75 100 Simulation Year % Coast Range 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Western Blue Bird BSE NFT RET 1996 25 50 75 100 Simulation year % of Coast Range 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 Old Growth Index BSE NFT RET % Coast Range 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 Olive-sided Flycatcher BSE NFT RET 0 1996 25 50 75 100 Simulation year 0 1996 25 50 75 100 Simulation year

Ownership Patterns

Area of Habitat by Ownership and Quality at 100 years for Base Practice 1000000 800000 Area (ha) 600000 400000 high moderate low 200000 0 Fed PI PNI+other State Ownership

Area of Bluebird Habitat by Ownership and Quality at 100 years for Base Practice 1000000 800000 Area (ha) 600000 400000 high moderate low 200000 0 Fed PI PNI+other State Ownership

Area of Flycatcher Habitat by Ownership and Quality at 100 years for Base Practice 1000000 800000 Area (ha) 600000 400000 high moderate low 200000 0 Fed PI PNI+other State Ownership

Area of Habitat by Ownership and Quality at 100 years for Base Practice Canopy Lichen Potential 1000000 800000 Area (ha) 600000 400000 200000 high moderate low 0 Fed PI PNI+other State Ownership

Area of Old Growth Habitat by Ownership and Quality at 100 years for Base Practice 1000000 800000 Area (ha) 600000 400000 high midhigh midlow low 200000 0 Fed PI PNI+other State Ownership

Age Class Distribution Current and After 100 years-- Base Practice Percent landscape 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 100 years 0-50 50-100 100-150 150-200 200-250 250-300 300+ Age Class 80 1996 70 Percent Landscape 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0-50 50-100 100-150 150-200 200-250 250-300 300+ Age Class

Distribution of Old-Growth Index in 1996 for Coast Range 140000 120000 100000 Hectares 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 HCI

Distribution of Old-Growth Index in 50 years for Base Practice Simulation for Coast Range 140000 120000 100000 Hecatres 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 96 HCI

Distribution of Old-Growth Index in 100 years for Base Practice Simulation for Coast Range 140000 120000 100000 Hectares 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 96 HCI

Landscape Patterns

Vegetation Classes 2096 Projected Base Policy Not Simulated Open Forest Broadleaf Mixed Small Mixed Medium Mixed Large Mixed Very Large Conifer Small Conifer Medium Conifer Large Conifer Very Large Mixed Very Small Conifer Very Small Remnants

Conclusions Area of mature and old-growth forest and habitat for associated Species is expected to increase strongly over the next 100 years Despite 100 years amounts of older forest and structural conditions still probably below historical range of variation Low amounts of habitat for species requiring open structurally Diverse forests trends are flat Species diversity associated with hardwoods is projected to strongly decline

Conclusions Alternative policies may alter condition of biological diversity but further analysis is needed New landscape patterns developing that have particular ecological characteristics