Trade Blocs, Development Hotspots and Changing Trade Patterns Breakbulk Africa, 18 th February 2015
Background Multiplicity of Trade Blocs in ever convergent economic spaces; Need for harmonisation of blocs, trade policies to unlock local and regional participation; New development hotspots driving new trade patterns, expansion strategies; Critical to act quickly, both locally and regionally in order to access these opportunities;
Global Exports to SADC Region (US$ Bn) Destination 2011 2012 2013 Key Supplier Total 166 175 185 Excl Exports to SA 61 67 87 South Africa 106 108 98 China (15) South Africa (9) Germany (8) India (6) USA (6) UK (4) Japan (3) France (3) Portugal (2) Belgium (2) Netherlands (2) Ghana (2) Korea (2) Italy (2) Brazil (2) Thailand (2) Nigeria (2) Zimbabwe (2) Namibia (2) South Africa (22) China (15) India (8) Portugal (6) USA (4) France (3) UK (3) Zambia (2) Germany (2) Belgium (2) Brazil (2) DR-Congo (2) Namibia (2) Japan (2) Korea (2) China (15) Germany (11) USA (7) UK (5) India (5) Japan (4) Ghana (3) France (3) Nigeria (3) Netherlands (3) Thailand (2) Zimbabwe (2) Korea (2) Angola 17 20 21 Portugal (19) China (18) USA (8) Brazil (6) South Africa (5) France (4) UK (4) Korea (3) India (3) Belgium (3) Tanzania 9 9 12 India (24) China (23) South Africa (6) Oman (4) USA (3) UK (3) Japan (3) Indonesia (2) Germany (2) UAE (2) Sweden (2) Mozambique 7 7 10 South Africa (32) India (13) China (12) USA (5) Portugal (5) Zimbabwe (3) Botswana 1 2 8 South Africa (41) Namibia (11) Nigeria (10) UK (10) China (8) Israel (3) Canada (2) Zambia 6 6 7 South Africa (40) DR-Congo (23) China (10) India (4) USA (2) UK (2) Japan (2) Germany (2) Zimbabwe (2) Namibia (2) Tanzania (1) Namibia 2 2 7 South Africa (41) China (11) Bulgaria (6) Germany (6) USA (5) Peru (4) India (3) France (3) Zambia (3) DR-Congo 5 6 7 South Africa (22) China (15) Zambia (14) Belgium (8) France (5) Uganda (4) Tanzania (3) Germany (3) USA (3) Netherlands (3) Namibia (2) Rwanda (2) India (2) Italy (2) Mauritius 5 4 4 India (23) China (14) France (10) South Africa (7) Singapore (4) Spain (3) Germany (3) UK (3) Zimbabwe 4 5 4 South Africa (56) China (10) Zambia (7) India (4) Botswana (2) Mozambique (2) UK (2) Germany (2) Nigeria (1) Madagascar 2 2 3 China (23) France (15) India (7) South Africa (7) Mauritius (6) Pakistan (4) Singapore (3) Belgium (3) USA (3) Malawi 1 2 2 South Africa (29) China (12) Zambia (11) India (11) Tanzania (5) USA (4) France (4) Mozambique (3) Swaziland 0 0 2 South Africa (65) India (7) China (4) USA (4) Nigeria (3) Thailand (2) Mauritania (2) Lesotho 0 0 2 South Africa (71) China (15) India (3) USA (2) Korea (1) Seychelles 1 1 1 Spain (18) France (10) South Africa (7) India (6) Singapore (6) China (5) Italy (5) UK (5) Mauritius (4)
Destination of Goods By Supplier Country (US$bn) 2 0 11 2 0 12 2 0 13 Key Exports to Country Key Destination Processed Industrial Supplies (31) Primary Industrial Supplies (13) Processed Total 25.07 28.17 41.99 Food & Bev (10) Capital Goods (excl transport) (8) Fuels and Lubricant (Processed & Primary) (15) Transport equipment, vehicles & parts (8) Processed Industrial Supplies (32) Primary Industrial Supplies (23) Primary Total Excl SA Exports to Region 14.3 16.1 18.4 Fuels and Lubricants (14) Processed Food & Bev (10) Processed Fuels (4) Capital Goods (4) Processed Industrial Supplies (29) Capital Goods, parts and accessories, excl South Africa 9.08 9.96 10.85 transport (21) Processed Food & Bev (11) Processed fuels & lubricants (11) Transport Equipment, Parts & Accessories (11) Consumer Goods (11) Zambia 4.02 4.29 4.95 Processed and Primary Industrial Supplies (68) Processed Food & Bev (13) Capital goods, parts, vehicles, fuels etc (14) So uth Africa (31) Zambia (14) Zimbabwe (10) Mozambique (10) DR-Congo (8) Botswana (7) Namibia (5) Angola (5) Tanzania (3)Malawi (2) So uth Africa (61) Zambia (11) DR-Congo (7) Zimbabwe (4) Angola (3) Zambia (17) Mozambique (17) Zimbabwe (16) Botswana (10) Namibia (10) DR- Congo (9) Angola (7) Tanzania (4) Swaziland (3) Lesotho (3) Malawi (3) So uth Africa (36) DR-Congo (32) Zimbabwe (12) Malawi (7) Namibia (4) Tanzania (3) Zimbabwe 3.16 3.14 2.88 Processed and Primary Industrial Supplies (89) Processed Food & Bev (4) So uth Africa (85) Mozambique (9) Zambia (3) Botswana (2) Mozambique 2.82 2.83 3.44 Primary and Processed fuels and lubricants (64) Food and Bev (11) So uth Africa (78) Zimbabwe (10) Malawi (4) Tanzania (3) Angola (1) DR-Congo 1.95 2.53 2.96 Primary Industrial Supplies (79) Processed Industrial Supplies (20) Zambia (98.5) So uth Africa (1) Namibia (0.5) Botswana 0.13 0.55 5.55 Namibia 0.10 0.55 4.40 Processed Industrial Supplies, (26) Primary Industrial Supplies, (21) Semidurable consumer goods (13) Processed Food and Beverages (9) Vehicles, Transport Equipment and Parts (17) Processed Food and Bev (27) Primary Industrial Supplies (17) Processed Industrial Supplies (17) Capital Goods (14) Capital, transport goods & Parts & accessories (29) So uth Africa (72) Botswana (13) Namibia (7) Zambia (6) DR-Congo (1) Tanzania (1) So uth Africa (54) Angola (18) Botswana (16) DR-Congo (4) Zambia (3) Mozambique (2) Angola 1.44 1.71 1.51 Fuels (98) Primary Industrial Supplies (1) So uth Africa (99) Mozambique (0.3) Namibia (0.3) Tanzania 0.75 0.92 0.74 Malawi 0.67 0.77 0.85 Processed Industrial Supplies (74) Semi durable & non-durable consumption goods (9) Processed Food & Bev (4) Primary and Processed Industrial Supplies (42), Primary Food and Bev (29) Processed Food and Bev (13) So uth Africa (65) DR-Congo (14) Zambia (6) Malawi (5) Mozambique (5) Namibia (2) So uth Africa (34) Zimbabwe (28) Mozambique (12) Zambia (12) Tanzania (10) DR-Congo (2) Swaziland 0.05 0.03 1.53 Processed Industrial Supplies (66) Processed Food & Bev (18) So uth Africa (72) Tanzania (7) Mozambique (5) Zimbabwe (4) Namibia (4) Lesotho 0.02 0.01 1.42 Mauritius 0.44 0.43 0.46 Semi-durable consumer goods (32) Parts for Capital Goods (18) Processed Food and Bev (13) Industrial Supplies, Primary & Processed (21) Processed Industrial Supplies (36) Semi-Durable Consumer Goods (25) Nondurable Consumer Goods (22) Processed Food & Bev (9) So uth Africa (88) Botswana (8) Mauritius (3) Zimbabwe (1) So uth Africa (51) Madagascar (38) Seychelles (8) Tanzania (1) Zimbabwe (1) Madagascar 0.35 0.36 0.34 Semi-durable consumer goods (30), Processed Industrial Supplies (21) Primary Industrial Supplies (10) Processed Fuels (9) So uth Africa (62) Mauritius (25) Seychelles (7) Mozambique (2) Tanzania (2)
PROPOSED TRIPARTITE TRADE BLOC MOROCCO TUNISIA COMESA COMESA/SADC WESTERN SAHARA ALGERIA LIBYA EGYPT SADC SADC/EAC EAC/COMESA SENEGAL THE GAMBIA GUINEA BISSAU SIERRA LEONE GUINEA Potential Grouping of 26 countries from Libya to South Africa; Accounts for roughly 55% of population and GDP of Africa (550m people and US$960bn) Slated for first round of implementation in 2015 or 2016; Would allow SADC exporters preferential access to the crucial EAC (especially Kenyan and Ugandan) markets some don t currently have; Access to Ethiopia s large and rapidly growing market would offer exciting opportunities; Many corridors especially in south, have overlapping trade blocks; Northern & Central serve EAC good development potential! MAURITANIA LIBERIA COTE DTVOIRE MALI BURKINA GHANA BENIN TOGO EQUATORIAL GUINEA 0 NIGERIA NW Corridor - Grindrod Lobito Trans-Cunene Trans-Caprivi NIGER CAMEROON GABON ANGOLA Trans-Kalahari 500 REP OF THE CONGO NAMIBIA CHAD DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO ANGOLA CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC BURUDI ZAMBIA BOTSWANA LESOTHO SOUTH AFRICA RWANDA 1000 Nautical Miles SUDAN SOUTH SUDAN MALAWI ZIMBABWE UGANDA TANZANIA Zanzibar MOZAMBIQUE SWAZILAND ERITREA ETHIOPIA KENYA Beira DJIBOUTI Berbera SOMALIA Nacala Comoros MADAGASCAR Northern Central Dar es Salaam Maputo North-South Seychelles Mauritius
Opening of Region through Corridors: Currently around 53% of regional trade originates in SA and 29% is destined for SA: Very heavy reliance on north-south routes, both land and sea; Key East-West trade involves axis from Namibia to Mozambique, but largely SA, Zimbabwe and Malawi with Mozambique, and Zimbabwe, Botswana with Namibia Walvis Bay becoming transit point for supplies into Copperbelt (both sides), Botswana and Zimbabwe; Mining industry in Namibia increasingly using Walvis, potential for coal exports; Lobito Corridor could re-route significant volumes of trade such as copper, cement, chemicals, industrial inputs, fuels away from Zambia and SA to Angola; Possibly consumer goods as well especially bulk goods from Brazil, EU, Turkey etc; Similar situations in Mozambican corridors and hinterland less reliance on SA infrastructure and suppliers; Industrial parks and development hotspots forcing suppliers to locate directly in these development areas: Good expansion opportunity, but also a threat to those companies not willing/able to; This trend will grow along with resource nationalism and local content requirements; Already happening in Mozambique, Tanzania, Angola, Uganda, Zambia and other countries;
Opening of Region through Corridors Issues to be aware of: Growing government insistence on local participation/procurement in ownership and supply to large projects: Zimbabwe the most onerous example, but Mozambique, Angola, Nigeria, South Africa, Zambia, Tanzania and others all starting to flex muscle in project delivery; Once again, increasing global competition from both: Global procurement chains and systems; Global players establishing themselves in key markets it does offer sub-contractor opportunities though; Faltering Commodity Prices: Source: Africa Project Access This put a real brake on development from 2009 to 2011 and some projects in Africa suffered from this 2014 and 2015 has seen a decline again; Input costs have risen as prices declined, squeezing profitability and thus project potential; A more conservative leadership group has emerged in key mining majors recently could see mega projects downscaled
Questions: Each REC has infrastructure Masterplans, in line with AU & related plans: Can these be harmonised to unlock greater east-west trade and development given the strategic locations of many stranded resources? Can regional producers take advantage of more seamless operating environments to replace imported products for these new growth nodes? Will the Tripartite Agreement unlock better integration between EAC, northern COMESA and eastern SADC countries? Potential is there especially into eastern and southern DR-Congo, Rwanda-Burundi-Zambia, Ethiopia and South Sudan (eventually), as well as northern Mozambique; Will the development of IDZ and project-driven business parks facilitate more integrated regional business or simply act as a conduit for non-regional suppliers? To what extent are governments in the region working with RECs and project developers to maximise local and regional supply from these? In the current low-price commodity environment, will corridors be unlocked at the same pace?