AGRICULTURE THE BIG PICTURE AEASA 2015 (30 Sept 2015), Parys North West NAMC and Tralac Collaboration By: B Nyhodo, E Williams and R Sandrey
Presentation outline Introduction Africa Africa share of world trade Shares of Africa s agric exports Shares of Africa s agric imports Challenges of Africa Trade South Africa Agric, Forestry and Fisheries - trade (exports, imports and trade balance) South Africa s exports (changes) Relatives of SA agric in selected markets Closing remarks 2
AFRICA
Percentage (%) Africa s trade as a percentage of world trade (agric) 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Africa's Agric Im (% of world import) Africa's Agric Ex (% of world export) 4
Introduction Examine Africa rising on trade flows (agriculture) in respect of the old (EU and USA), New (BRIC) and good friends (African countries), Agriculture, forestry and fisheries defined in World Trade Organisation definitions (explained in p 48), Data challenge of African countries - caution
Percentage (others) Percentage (EU) Who imports Africa s agr product? 40 35 30 80 70 60 25 20 15 10 50 22.6 40 35.5 30 11.2 20 5 0 4.2 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Export to BRIC (% of Africa's) Export to USA (% of Africa's) Export to Africa (% of Africa's) Export to EU (% of Africa's) 10 0
Percentage Who exports to Africa agr product? 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Import from EU (%) Import from BRIC (% of Africa's) Import from USA (%) Import from Africa (%)
Africa s Trade challenges
Trade Cost high in Africa Poor Road and Rail Transport Infrastructure Poor Port and Maritime Transport Poor Vehicle use and management Overlapping membership adding to the puzzle SADC Tanzania EAC Kenya Uganda Burundi Rwanda High Transport cost Cumbersome Customs procedures Unwarranted road blocks Product Standards and Technical Regulations Information and communication costs Mozambique SACU Botswana Swaziland Lesotho Namibia South Africa Angola DR Congo Malawi Madagascar Mauritius Zambia Zimbabwe COMESA Poor and inadequate payment mechanism
AMU ECOWAS Conseil de l Entente Ghana Nigeria Algeria Libya Morocco Tunisia Benin Togo Côte d Ivoire Cape Verde Gambia Mauritania Niger Burkina Faso GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE: RIAs in AFRICA ECCAS Chad São Tomé & Príncipe Cameroon Central African Rep. Gabon Equat. Guinea Rep. Congo Burundi* Rwanda* DR Congo CEMAC COMESA Egypt Nile Basin Initiative Djibouti Ethiopia Eritrea Sudan IGAD Somalia WAEMU Guinea-Bissau Liberia Sierra Leone Mali Senegal Guinea Mano River Union CILSS ACRONYMS AMU: Arab Maghreb Union CBI: Cross Border Initiative CEMAC: Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa CILSS: Permanent Interstate Committee on Drought Control in the Sahel COMESA: Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa EAC: East African Community ECCAS: Economic Community of Central African States ECOWAS: Economic Community of Western African States IGAD: Inter-Governmental Authority for Development IOC: Indian Ocean Commission SACU: Southern African Customs Union SADC: Southern African Development Community SADC 1/ Tanzania is also a member of the Nile Basin Initiative EAC SACU Tanzania 1 * South Africa Botswana Lesotho Angola Mozambique Malawi* Zambia* Zimbabwe* Namibia* Swaziland* Mauritius* Seychelles* * CBI Kenya* Uganda* Comoros* Madagascar* Reunion IOC
SOUTH AFRICA
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 South Africa's AFF: R'Billion 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Trade balance Exports Imports
South Africa s exports (changes) South Africa s export of agricultural products to major trading partners (between 2004 and 2013) dominated by oranges, maize, wines, grapes and apples): To the EU declined from 47% (2004) to 31% (2013) a steady decline To USA declined slightly from 5% (2004) to 4% (2013) To SADC increased slightly from 16% (2004) to 23% (2013) To EAC decline from 3% (2004) to 2% (2013) To BRIC increased from 3% (2004) to 8% (2013)
Relative share in SA major markets Presented in Table 22 (p-78) show mixed fortunes (gaining and losing ground) EU losing ground (to our Southern hemisphere competitors) USA losing ground Zimbabwe gaining ground Nigeria gaining ground Angola steady Zambia losing ground
Closing remarks Africa s exports/imports of agric products to the old friends (shrinking), new friends (increasing) and good friend (?) Africa s trade challenges continue to hinder trade (especially intra Africa trade) African Dummy South Africa trade with the old friend remain a substantial part of the economy (even though declining) The new and good friends seem to be taking reasonable amount of South Africa s exports and imports (from low bases though)
Morocco Tunisia Western Sahara Algeria Libya Arab Jamahi riy Egypt Eastern and Southern Africa Mauritania Cape Verde Senegal Gambia Burkina Faso Guinea Bissau Guinea Sierra Leone Liberia CEDEAO/ECOW AS + Mauritania Mali Côte d Ivoire Benin Ghana Togo CEMAC + SaoTomePrinc Niger Nigeria Cameroon Equatorial Guinea Gabon S.Tome,Princ Chad Central Afric Rep Congo Sudan R Dem Congo Uganda Rwanda Burundi Tanzania Eritrea Ethiopia Ken ya Djibouti Somalia Comoros Seych elles «SADC group» BNLS+Angola,Tanzania,Mozambique Angola Zambia Malawi Mozambique Namibia Zimbab we Madagascar Botswana Mauritius Swaziland Lesotho South Afri ca DG TRADE-c-1 (BS) LDC countries : italic nonldccountries : und erlined Graph EPA 1
Enkosi