ATHENS INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY The prospects of Fiber To The Home: State-of-the-art and future outlook Dr. Ioannis Tomkos (itom@ait.edu.gr) Associate Dean, Professor, Research Group Head, AIT Adjunct Faculty, Carnegie-Mellon University, USA Tuesday, May 12 th, 2009 Athens - Greece Ioannis Tomkos - 1
Outline FTTx: The need for it FTTx: Worldwide deployment situation and forecasts FTTx: Architectures and Technologies FTTx: The Greek Case Conference program Ioannis Tomkos - 2 2
Services that require NGA networks Services on demand or/and video-based services require NGA infrastructure EU aims for a widespread participation to the knowledge society of 2010+ by activating its plan of action for access to inexpensive symmetrical 100 Mbps connections by the majority of the population EU is estimating the transition to the NGA/NGN at 300 billion! Ioannis Tomkos - 3
Applications and bandwidth demand Technologies/applications that are expected to flood the market (HDTV, 3D TV, tele-presence) are driving the demand forward The total bandwidth demand/ household is anticipated to reach 80 Mbps! Telephony Video On Demand (4 Mbps per program) IP-Digital TV (4 Mbps per channel ) High Definition TV (12 Mbps per channel) 3D SDTV Gaming File downloading Web-surfing Video Conferencing Sessions Total Per Household 256 Kbps 8 Mbps 16 Mbps 24 Mbps 20 Mbps 4 Mbps 4 Mbps 2 Mbps 2 Mbps 80 Mbps! Ioannis Tomkos - 4
Evolution in screen size will drive BW needs Ioannis Tomkos - 5
Comparison between Ultra-HDΤV and HDTV 3D HDTV alone requires 80 Mb/s! Ultra High Definition Video (UHDV) has already become available in Japan, requiring 200 600 Mbps To reach the limits of the recent advancements in video services a huge amount of bandwidth is required... Ioannis Tomkos - 6
DSL is reaching the end of its journey Access speeds increase 50% each year Important note: the fastest the connection the more it is used by the end customer DSL can only offer limited bit rates The discussion whether we should migrate to networks based in new infrastructure/technologies, is similar to the debate that took place in the late 90 s on the potential transition from ISDN to DSL It takes roughly 5 years... ADSL2+ Expiration Date: 2013! Ioannis Tomkos - 7
Is timing good for FTTH? Ioannis Tomkos - 8
FTTx Global Ranking December 2008 Ioannis Tomkos - 9
FTTH/B subscribers in Europe Data that excludes VDSL/VDSL2, FTTC, FTTN deployments by incumbents Ioannis Tomkos - 10
Worldwide News Verizon (USA) is setting up a GPON network to cover 18M of houses by 2010 with an estimated Capex of 13.8B. AT&T (USA) is developing GPON and FTTN+VDSL and the estimated investment is 6.5B. In Australia the Government is looking to the implementation of a hybrid wired/wireless broadband network able to supply the households with 100Mbps symmetric BW. HKBN Lim. launched in 2004 its breakthrough service (1Gbps symmetric) investing 2B$. Started with 800k households, they plan to go for 2M households in 3 years. Source: Reviving the Fixe Line, Exane BNP Paribas (February 2009) Ioannis Tomkos - 11
Worldwide News NTT/KDDI (Japan) offers 100Mbps DS at 5KY/month (around 38 ) and launched its broadband service at 1Gbps symmetric in 2008. Estimated price around 56.54$/month (@2007). In Europe, FT with its pilot program offers 100Mbps symmetric with 3play TVHD at residential end-users where FTTH infrastructure has been realized. Estimated price around 62.9 /month (@2009). Other examples in Europe, with 100Mbps access solutions are in Amsterdam and in Stockholm. Source: Reviving the Fixe Line, Exane BNP Paribas (February 2009) Ioannis Tomkos - 12
Beyond xdsl Ioannis Tomkos - 13
Forecast in Europe Thousands of HH 15 million households until 2012 Source: FTTH Council Europe/Heavy Reading, 2008 Ioannis Tomkos - 14
According to the Greek Government Is the time now for optical fiber Networks in Greece? Yes because Increased broadband penetration rates have been achieved only in the last 4 years. Very rapid rates of increase in broadband penetration during the last 2 years. Greece has geostrategic significance. There is no other significant competitive telecom network infrastructure. The population density justifies the investment (in the selected cities) There is a strong approval from the citizens There is a definite government dedication. Ioannis Tomkos - 15
FTTH Hype Cycle Visibility 2000 2004 2006 2007 time Sources: Gartner's Hype Cycle Special Report, FTTH Council Europe In Greece the Hype Cycle peak was reached in 2008 due to the Greek Government FTTH project announcement Ioannis Tomkos - 16
FTTx Access Networks- Terminology FTTx Access Fiber-To-The-Exchange Fiber-To-The-Cabinet Fiber-To-The-Curb Fiber-To-The-Building Fiber-To-The-Home Ioannis Tomkos - 17
FTTx Cost comparison Source: Telecom Italia, 2008 Ioannis Tomkos - 18
Is there only one FTTx solution? Ioannis Tomkos - 19
FTTH Architectures «Home run fiber» (a) «Αctive star» (b) Based on Active Ethernet 1 fiber per OLT-ONU pair More ports per OLT Lower network design cost Regulator s favorite due to easy LLU «Passive star» Architecture (c) Based on PONs (BPON, GPON, EPON, WDM-PON) Requires less Capec in terms of fibers Use of passive infrastructure Easy and cost-effective management Preferred by the incumbent operators that have access in ducts Ioannis Tomkos - 20
WDM-PON Architecture Emulates a PtP connection! 1 wavelength per: PON LAN Building Household Service... Great flexibility in bandwidth Source: Nortel Ioannis Tomkos - 21
In next generation access, wholesale access is essential to enable competition How you define your open access network? Duct access Digging is the major cost in fibre deployment in France and other countries with good infrastructure duct access can help enable competition Dark fibre access Where duct access is difficult or not available, dark fibre is often considered as the next best passive access remedy Sub-loop unbundling (SLU) In countries with FTTC deployments, there is focus on SLU Wavelength DWDM PON is being deployed in Korea but is thought to be too expensive in Europe for the moment Bitstream (or Active Access) Considered as an option where passive access is not available, rather than a preferred remedy Source: Ofcom Ioannis Tomkos - 22
Conclusions There is an imperative need to migrate to the NGN/NGA networks The transition of the telecom infrastructure towards FTTx has already started across the globe and the Greek Government is amongst the leaders driving this transition There is a multitude of options that one may choose from regarding architectures, technologies, business models, financing strategies, regulatory issues etc. towards a successful deployment Several challenges remain open and should be addressed during our conference! Ioannis Tomkos - 23
2nd FTTx Conference program (1/2) 09.30-11.00: Opening Session The Greek and European framework of FTTH deployment Vasilios Assimakopoulos, Special Secretary for the Information Society, Ministry of Economy and Finance Panagiotis Tsanakas, Chairman of EDET, Member BoD, EETT Ioanna Sambrakou, Advisor, Greek Ministry of Transport & Telecommunications Leo Kanellos, Chairman of the FTTH Committee, Greek Ministry of Transport & Telecommunications Wolfgang Fischer, Member of BoD, FTTH Council Europe Coffee break (11:00-11:30) 11:30-13:00: Session I "How attractive is an FTTH deployment in Greece?" Charalampos Kallis, General Manager, INTRAKAT Jean-Michel Soulier, President, AXIA Networks France Konstantinos Ploumpis, General Manager, OTE Themis Papaioannou, Business Development Advisor, AKTOR Maria Labropoulou, Country Manager & Managing Director, Orange Greece Lunch Break (13:00-14:00) Ioannis Tomkos - 24
2nd FTTx Conference program (2/2) 14.00-15:30: Session II "How a mass scale FTTH deployment could be realized cost-effectively?" Elli Pagourtzi, President, Greek Observatory for the Information Society Dimitrios Gorgias, Director of Network Engineering and Operations, hellas online Kevin Bourg, Senior Director, Enablence Technologies/Marac Ilias Koukouvinos, Managing Director, Optronics Yiannis Caloghirou & Theodoros Karounos, Advisors, Central Union of Local Authorities of Greece - KEDKE Coffee break (15:30-16:00) 16.00-17.30: Session III "What are the best solutions for FTTH network deployments?" Christos Kontelis, General Manager, INTRACOM Telecom Thomas Kallstenius, Director of Technical Marketing, Alcatel-Lucent Anastassios Lilakos, Regional Sales Manager, Greece/Cyrpus/Malta, Cisco John Gionas, Director Wireline, Government and Networked Enterprise, Ericsson Andreas Polykarpou, FTTH Committee Coordinator, Greek Ministry of Transport & Telecommunications 17:45-19.00: Closing Session George Dalamagkas, Chief Executive Officer, Alcatel-Lucent, Greece Panos Sarantopoulos, General Manager, OTE Petros Souretis, Chief Executive Officer, INTRAKAT Ioannis Adamopoulos, Secretary General of Communications, Greek Ministry of Transport & Telecommunications Christos Zois, Deputy Minister of Interiors Ioannis Tomkos & Ioannis Halavazis, Conference Organizers, "Concluding Remarks Drinks Reception (19.00 20.00) Ioannis Tomkos - 25
2 nd FTTx Conference: Sponsors and supporters Gold Sponsors: Silver Sponsors: Sponsors & Exhibitors Ioannis Tomkos - 26
Thank you for your attention! Dr. Ioannis Tomkos itom@ait.gr +30 210 668 2771 FTTx has passed the point of no return! Ioannis Tomkos - 27