Estonian Tourism Conference Trends & Developments World, Europe and Major Source Markets for Estonia Barbara Postel, IPK International 24 September 2010 1
SIGNPOST Introduction: What we do / WTM Method World Travel Volume / Trends European Travel Volume / Trends Major Source Markets for Estonia Travel Trends and Characteristics Crisis Survey Results 2
IPK International IPK International Tourism Consulting World Travel Monitor 3
Tourism Consulting Tourism Research & Marketing - Conducting quantitative and qualitative tourism research worldwide - Development of strategies, marketing plans, tourism forecasts and business development concepts on regional, national and international levels 4
World Travel Monitor (WTM ) Based on approx. 500,000 interviews per year, the World Travel Monitor - has been surveying the outbound travel behavior in 60 countries worldwide (34 in Europe, 13 in the Americas, 5 in Arabia and 8 in Asia) for more than 20 years - applying a uniform questionnaire / method in all countries - providing comparable results. 5
Short digression on what distinguishes the WTM from other tourism statistics WTM UNWTO TourMIS Inbound Travel Volume Outbound Travel Volume Outbound / Inbound Travel Behavior Outbound / Inbound Travel Target Groups 6
WTM Standard Questions Number of outbound trips/market volume Destination countries (worldwide) Destination regions / cities Purpose of trip (holiday, business, other leisure, ) Holiday segments (Sun&Beach, Tour, City, Mountain, Cruise, Winter Sports, Spa/Wellness, etc.) Holiday motives / activities Type of business trip Means of transportation (incl. low fare) Airport of departure / airlines Accommodation types / categories Travel season Booking behavior (booking sites / products, booking period) Internet usage Information sources Length of trip Travel expenditure Trips with children Target group / traveler profiles (gender, age, education, income, children in household, size of household) Regional focus markets Travel frequency Travel intensity 7
WTM Characteristics Guarantees global comparability for 60 outbound markets worldwide Continuous monitoring throughout the year Covers all major outbound markets worldwide Covers all travel market segments (1+ N) Uses a worldwide standardized questionnaire Displays all inbound performances (via destinationperspective) 8
Today, the WTM is the most extensive, comparable, ongoing, population representative survey of international tourism 9
SIGNPOST Introduction: What we do / WTM Method World Travel Volume / Trends European Travel Volume / Trends Major Source Markets for Estonia Travel Trends and Characteristics Crisis Survey Results 10
million World Outbound Travel Volume / Trend 750 700 679 693 650 600 578 612 639 665 Change over 2008: -4% Long term travel growth: +2.7% 550 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: World Travel Monitor 2004-2009, IPK International / National Statistics 11
World Outbound Travel by Continents / Regions 2% + 5% 22% - 2% 17% - 5% Volume Change over 2008-6% 49% Western Europe Eastern Europe Asia / Pacific The Americas Africa 10% Source: World Travel Monitor 2008/2009, IPK International / National Statistics 12
World Outbound Travel by Continents / Regions 2004 1% 2009 2% +1% 21% 16% 10% 52% 22% 17% +1% +1% 10% ±0% Market Share Change over 2004 49% -3% Western Europe Eastern Europe Asia / Pacific The Americas Africa Source: World Travel Monitor 2004/2009, IPK International / National Statistics 13
World Outbound Performance 2009 Change over 2008 All trips (1+nights) 665 million - 4% Nights: 5.5 billion* -7% Source: World Travel Monitor 2008/2009, IPK International / National Statistics 14
Heavy Crisis Impact on World Outbound Spending World outbound spending in Euro 730 billion World outbound spending trend - 9% Spending per Night 112 Euro Spending per Trip 1,100 Euro Source: World Travel Monitor 2008/2009, IPK International / National Statistics 15
SIGNPOST Introduction: What we do / WTM Method World Travel Volume / Trends European Travel Volume / Trends Major Source Markets for Estonia Travel Trends and Characteristics Crisis Survey Results 16
million European Outbound Travel Volume / Trend 450 409 422 400 356 376 389 393 Change over 2008: -6.9% Long term travel growth: +2.1% 350 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: World Travel Monitor 2004-2009, IPK International 17
European Outbound Travel by Regions 4% 11% -4% -8% 18% -10% Volume Change over 2008 25% -3% 8% 34% -8% -6% West Europe North Europe Central Europe Southwest Europe Southeast Europe East Europe Source: World Travel Monitor 2008/2009, IPK International 18
European Outbound Travel by Regions 2004 2009 3% 10% 17% 27% 34% 8% 4% 11% + 1% + 1% 18% West Europe + 1% 25% - 2% Market Share Change over 2004 8% ± 0% 34% ± 0% North Europe Central Europe Southwest Europe Southeast Europe East Europe Source: World Travel Monitor 2004/2009, IPK International 19
European Outbound Performance 2009 Europe World All Trips 393 million - 7% - 4% All Nights 3.5 billion - 12% - 7% Source: World Travel Monitor 2008/2009, IPK International 20
Heavy Crisis Impact on European Outbound Spending European outbound spending in Euro 334 billion World European outbound spending trend - 13% - 9% Spending per Night 97 Euro 112 Euro Spending per Trip 841 Euro 1,100 Euro Source: World Travel Monitor 2008/2009, IPK International 21
SIGNPOST Introduction: What we do / WTM Method World Travel Volume / Trends European Travel Volume / Trends Major Source Markets for Estonia Travel Trends and Characteristics Crisis Survey Results 22
million Development of European Trips to Estonia 3 2,8 2,9 2,7 2,5 2,4 2,3 2,3 Change over 2008: -6.3% Long term travel loss: -3.6% 2 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: World Travel Monitor 2004-2009, IPK International 23
European Market Performance Trips to Estonia Estonia Europe All Trips 2.3 million - 6% - 7% All Nights 9.2 million - 16% - 12% Source: World Travel Monitor 2008/2009, IPK International 24
European Outbound Spending Trips to Estonia Spending on trips to Estonia in Euro 0.8 billion Europe Spending on trips to Estonia trend -10% -13% Spending per Night 87 Euro 97 Euro Spending per Trip 353 Euro 841 Euro Source: World Travel Monitor 2008/2009, IPK International 25
Million Major Source Markets for Estonia Development of Outbound Trips 25 20 15 10 5 20,7 18,5 15,9 14,0 12,7 10,7 10,7 10,1 10,2 9,3 6,1 6,5 6,8 6,8 7,2 Change over 2008: -12.5% Long term travel growth: +6.0% 18,1 9,3 Change over 2008: -12.9% Long term travel growth: +0.3% 6,9 Change over 2008: -4.3% Long term travel growth: +2.6% 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Russian Trips Swedish Trips Finnish Trips Source: World Travel Monitor 2004-2009, IPK International 26
Million Major Source Markets for Estonia Development of Trips to Estonia 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1 0,8 0,6 0,4 0,2 0 1,7 1,6 1,5 1,4 1,4 1,3 0,3 0,3 0,4 0,3 0,3 0,2 0,1 0,2 0,2 0,1 0,1 0,1 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Finnish Trips to Estonia Russian Trips to Estonia Swedish Trips to Estonia Source: World Travel Monitor 2004-2009, IPK International 27
Major Source Markets for Estonia by Purpose of Trip 80% 70% 69% 76% 72% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 19% 17% 12% 13% 11% 11% 0% Finland Russia Sweden Source: World Travel Monitor 2009, IPK International Holiday Trips Business Trips VFR/Other Leisure 28
Major Source Markets by Purpose of Trip to Estonia 80% 70% 60% 73% 59% 74% 50% 40% 30% 33% 20% 18% 18% 10% 9% 8% 8% 0% Finland Russia Sweden Holiday Trips Business Trips VFR/Other Leisure Source: World Travel Monitor 2009, IPK International 29
Major Source Markets by Type of Holiday Sun&Beach 21% 46% 41% Tour 9% 13% 28% City/Event Countryside Cruise 9% 4% 7% 3% 2% 5% 17% 27% 39% Finland Russia Sweden Special Private Occasion 3% 3% 6% Other 7% 5% 5% Source: World Travel Monitor 2009, IPK International 30
Finnish Trips by Type of Holiday to Estonia City/Event 46% Cruise/Boat/Yacht 30% Tour 8% Health/Spa 5% Others 11% Source: World Travel Monitor 2009, IPK International 31
Russian Trips by Type of Holiday to Estonia Special Private Occasion 26% Tour 19% City / Event 17% Countryside 15% Sun&Beach 7% Others 16% Source: World Travel Monitor 2009, IPK International 32
Swedish Trips by Type of Holiday to Estonia Cruise/Boat/Yacht 45% City / Event 18% Tour 9% Sun&Beach 5% Special Private Occasion 5% Others 18% Source: World Travel Monitor 2009, IPK International 33
Major Source Markets by Length of Stay Finland 2 5 Russia 13 14 Average Length on all Trips (nights) Sweden 4 7 Average Length to Estonia (nights) Source: World Travel Monitor 2009, IPK International European Average Length of Stay: 9 nights to Estonia: 4 nights 34
Major Source Markets by Information Behavior Finland Russia Sweden Information Behavior 83% 22% 18% Internet 34% 43% Travel Agency 27% Friends/Relatives 81% 22% 18% Information Behavior to Estonia Finland 78% 21% 13% Russia 24% 18% 52% Sweden 61% 44% 20% Internet Travel Agency Friends/Relatives Source: World Travel Monitor 2009, IPK International 35
Major Source Markets by Booking Behavior Booking Behavior Booking Behavior to Estonia Finland 15% 18% 71% Internet Finland 24% 18% 57% Internet Russia Sweden 20% 14% 16% 11% 43% 78% Travel Agency Directly with accom. / transp. Russia Sweden 22% 14% 31% 22% 6% 54% Travel Agency Directly with accom. / transp. Source: World Travel Monitor 2009, IPK International 36
SIGNPOST Introduction: What we do / WTM Method World Travel Volume / Trends European Travel Volume / Trends Major Source Markets for Estonia Travel Trends and Characteristics Crisis Survey Results 37
Crisis Sensitivity 2009/2010 EUROPE 35% 41% Finland 17% 33% Russia * 39% Sweden 23% 27% 2010 2009 Source: World Travel Monitor Crisis Survey 2009/2010, IPK International *2009 data n.a. 38
Crisis Sensitivity resulting in EUROPE Finland Russia Sweden TOTAL CRISIS SENSITIVE TRAVELERS 35% 17% 39% 23% - Change in Travel Behavior - Forgoing Traveling 27% 14% 25% 17% 8% 3% 14% 6% Source: World Travel Monitor Crisis Survey 2010, IPK International 39
Crisis Sensitivity: Travel Behavior Change 2009/2010 EUROPE 27% 35% Finland 14% 30% Russia * 25% 2010 Sweden 17% 21% 2009 Source: World Travel Monitor Crisis Survey 2009/2010, IPK International *2009 data n.a. 40
Crisis Sensitivity: Forgoing Traveling 2009/2010 EUROPE 6% 8% Finland 3% 3% Russia Sweden * 6% 6% 2010 2009 14% Source: World Travel Monitor Crisis Survey 2009/2010, IPK International *2009 data n.a. 41
Travel Behavior Change resulting in EUROPE Finland Russia Sweden TRAVEL BEHAVIOR CHANGE 27% 14% 25% 17% Less expensive trip 12% 8% 10% 10% Less spending 8% 6% 6% 5% Shorter trip 7% 1% 7% 7% Source: World Travel Monitor Crisis Survey 2010, IPK International 42
Travel Behavior Change: Less Expensive Trip 2009/2010 EUROPE 12% 16% Finland 8% 20% Russia * 10% 2010 Sweden 10% 13% 2009 Source: World Travel Monitor Crisis Survey 2009/2010, IPK International *2009 data n.a. 43
Travel Behavior Change: Less Spending 2009/2010 EUROPE 8% 12% Finland 6% 13% Russia Sweden * 5% 6% 9% 2010 2009 Source: World Travel Monitor Crisis Survey 2009/2010, IPK International *2009 data n.a. 44
Travel Behavior Change: Shorter Trip 2009/2010 EUROPE 7% 12% Finland 1% 8% Russia * 7% 2010 Sweden 4% 7% 2009 Source: World Travel Monitor Crisis Survey 2009/2010, IPK International *2009 data n.a. 45
European Outbound Travel Intention 2010 Yes, and maybe even more often 25% Yes, as often as within the last 12 months Yes, but maybe less often as within the last 12 months 17% 44% Probably not 14% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Source: World Travel Monitor Crisis Survey 2010, IPK International 46
Some General Travel Trends Long Haul vs. Short Haul: Slightly more positive long term long haul trend in general than for short haul, but long haul more affected by crisis Short Trips (1-3 nights) vs. Longer Trips (4+ nights): More positive long term trend for short outbound trips than for longer trips, and not affected by the crisis / longer trips severely affected Car vs. Plane: Although a slightly more positive long term trend for the plane than for the car, car gained momentum during the crisis 47
Some General Travel Trends Travel Agency vs. Internet: Travel Agency striving to keep its importance vs. Internet gaining irreversible ground Younger (>34 years of age) vs. Older (55+) Travelers: Emerging markets (Russia, Spain, etc.) more younger travelers Mature markets (Germany, Great Britain, Sweden etc.) more older travelers 48
Thank you for your kind attention www.ipkinternational.com; postel@ipkinternational.com World Travel Monitor trend 01-08/10 data in the ITB World Travel Trends Report 2010/2011, prepared by IPK International on behalf of ITB Berlin in November 2010: www.itb-berlin.com/library 49