The Human and Economic Consequences of Kenya's 2007 Post-Election Violence

The Human and Economic Consequences of Kenya's 27 Post-Election Violence Pascaline Dupas Stanford Jonathan Robinson UC Santa Cruz

Kenya's political history 1895-1963: British Rule 1964: Presidential Representative Republic De facto one-party state until 1991 Party KANU in power from 1963 to 22 Jomo Kenyatta (15 years) Daniel Arap Moi (24 years) 22: Mwai Kibaki (Rainbow coalition) elected president Election judged free and fair by most observers

Kenya's 27 Presidential Election Crisis Intense campaigning Incumbent Mwai Kibaki Challenger Raila Odinga (ODM) Election held on December 27, 27 Initial tallies suggest Odinga won After delay, Kibaki announced the winner on December 29, 27 Announcement sparked violent protests, ethnic clashes, state of emergency 2 months of civil conict ended in late February 28 when a peace agreement was signed and a power-sharing government was formed 1,2 deaths + displacement of 5,+ people

4 2 Dublin 2 Minsk 4 6 IRE. U.K. Amsterdam Berlin London Warsaw BELARUS RUSSIA NETH. KAZAKHSTAN Brussels GERMANY POLAND Kyiv N o r t h BEL. LUX. Prague CZ. REP. UKRAINE Aral SLOV. Paris A t l a n t i c Vienna Bratislava Rostov MOL. SWITZ. AUS. Budapest Chisinau Bern FRANCE SLO. HUNG. of Tashkent ROM. Azov Ljubljana Odesa CRO. Belgrade 4 Milan Zagreb Bucharest UZBEKISTAN Marseille BOS. & SER. AND. HER. Black ITALY GEO. Caspian Sarajevo MONT. Sofia Tbilisi Ponta BULG. TURKMENISTAN PORTUGAL Barcelona Corsica Rome Podgorica Delgada Skopje Istanbul ARM. AZER. Baku AZORES Madrid Tirana Ashgabat MACE. Ankara Yerevan (PORTUGAL) Lisbon Naples ALB. SPAIN Sardinia GREECE. Mashhad Izmir TURKEY Tabriz - Algiers Tunis Adana Sicily Athens Tehran Strait of Gibraltar Oran Aleppo AFG MADEIRA ISLANDS Valletta Nicosia (PORTUGAL) Rabat Constantine SYRIA MALTA IRAQ Casablanca Fès CYPRUS LEB. Damascus Esfahan - TUNISIA IRAN Funchal Mediterranean Beirut MOROCCO Baghdad Jerusalem ISRAEL Amman CANARY ISLANDS Marrakech Tripoli Banghazi - - Alexandria Shiraz - (SPAIN) Cairo JORDAN Kuwait Bandar KUWAIT 'Abbas - Las Palmas Al Jizah - Persian Laayoune A L G E R I A Manama Gulf (El Aaiún) Abu BAHR. Western L I B Y A EGYPT Riyadh Doha Dhabi Mus Sahara Medina QATAR U.A.E Al Jawf Aswan - SAUDI OMAN Admin. boundary Nouadhibou Jiddah 2 ARABIA 2 MAURITANIA S A H A R A Mecca Port Red Sudan CAPE VERDE Nouakchott Tombouctou N I G E R Praia ERITREA Dakar Agadez Omdurman YEMEN MALI Arabian SENEGAL CHAD Khartoum Asmara Sanaa Banjul BURKINA THE GAMBIA Bamako Niamey Zinder Lac'Assal FASO S U D A N Gulf of (lowest point in Aden Socotra Bissau N'Djamena Africa, -155 m) Djibouti (YEMEN) GUINEA-BISSAU Ouagadougou Kano DJIBOUTI GUINEA Conakry BENIN NIGERIA Hargeysa CÔTE GHANA Addis Freetown Abuja Moundou SIERRA LEONE TOGO Ogbomoso Ababa D'IVOIRE Prov. Ibadan ETHIOPIA Admin. Monrovia Lomé Lagos CENTRAL AFRICAN Line SOMALIA Yamoussoukro Accra REPUBLIC LIBERIA Porto- CAMEROON Bangui Juba Abidjan Novo Douala Malabo EQUATORIAL GUINEA Yaoundé C O N G O UGANDA Gulf of Guinea Mogadishu SAO TOME REP. OF Kisangani Kampala KENYA AND PRINCIPE Libreville THE São Tomé GABON CONGO B A S I N Nairobi Annobón RWANDA Kigali (EQUA. GUI.) DEM. REP. I n d i a n Lake Mt. Kilimanjaro Bukavu (highest point in Victoria Brazzaville Victoria OF THE CONGO Bujumbura Africa, 5895 m) Pointe-Noire BURUNDI Mombasa Kinshasa ANGOLA Kananga Lake Dodoma Tanganyika Kenya, Zanzibar 27 (Cabinda) Ascension Mbuji-Mayi TANZANIA Dar es SEYCHELLES (St. Helena) Luanda Salaam Lake S o u t h Nyasa COMOROS St. Helena Lubumbashi Moroni Glorioso Islands (U.K.) MALAWI A t l a n t i c ANGOLA Kitwe Mayotte Lilongwe Cidade (admin. by France, claimed by Comoros) Lubango de Nacala ZAMBIA Tromelin Isla Namibe Blantyre Lusaka Juan de Nova Island Mahajanga St. Helena (St. Helena) Toamasina MOZAMBIQUE Harare ZIMBABWE Mozambique Antananarivo Port Beira Louis 2 Channel St. Denis 2 Windhoek BOTSWANA Bassas MAURIT da India Walvis Bay Europa MADAGASCAR K A L A H A R I Reunion Island NAMIBIA D E S E R T Gaborone Pretoria Maputo Johannesburg Mbabane SOUTH SWAZILAND Maseru Durban AFRICA LESOTHO Niger Equator Tropic of Capricorn Volta Tropic of Cancer Benue Cape Town I n d i a n Azimuthal Equal-Area Projection 8 Kilometers Scale 1:51,4, 8 Miles N A M I B D E S E R T Congo Danube Orange Zambezi Port Elizabeth White Blue G R E A T Volga R I F T V A L L E Y

4 2 Dublin 2 Minsk 4 6 IRE. U.K. Amsterdam Berlin London Warsaw BELARUS RUSSIA NETH. KAZAKHSTAN Brussels GERMANY POLAND Kyiv N o r t h BEL. LUX. Prague CZ. REP. UKRAINE Aral SLOV. Paris A t l a n t i c Vienna Bratislava Rostov MOL. SWITZ. AUS. Budapest Chisinau Bern FRANCE SLO. HUNG. of Tashkent ROM. Azov Ljubljana Odesa CRO. Belgrade 4 Milan Zagreb Bucharest UZBEKISTAN Marseille BOS. & SER. AND. HER. Black ITALY GEO. Caspian Sarajevo MONT. Sofia Tbilisi Ponta BULG. TURKMENISTAN PORTUGAL Barcelona Corsica Rome Podgorica Delgada Skopje Istanbul ARM. AZER. Baku AZORES Madrid Tirana Ashgabat MACE. Ankara Yerevan (PORTUGAL) Lisbon Naples ALB. SPAIN Sardinia GREECE. Mashhad Izmir TURKEY Tabriz - Algiers Tunis Adana Sicily Athens Tehran Strait of Gibraltar Oran Aleppo AFG MADEIRA ISLANDS Valletta Nicosia (PORTUGAL) Rabat Constantine SYRIA MALTA IRAQ Casablanca Fès CYPRUS LEB. Damascus Esfahan - TUNISIA IRAN Funchal Mediterranean Beirut MOROCCO Baghdad Jerusalem Guinea, ISRAEL Amman CANARY 28 ISLANDS Marrakech Tripoli Banghazi - - Alexandria Shiraz - (SPAIN) Cairo JORDAN Kuwait Bandar KUWAIT 'Abbas - Las Palmas Al Jizah - Persian Laayoune A L G E R I A Manama Gulf (El Aaiún) Abu BAHR. Western L I B Y A EGYPT Riyadh Doha Dhabi Mus Sahara Medina QATAR U.A.E Al Jawf Aswan - SAUDI OMAN Admin. boundary Nouadhibou Jiddah 2 ARABIA 2 MAURITANIA S A H A R A Mecca Port Red Sudan CAPE VERDE Nouakchott Tombouctou N I G E R Praia ERITREA Dakar Agadez Omdurman YEMEN MALI Arabian SENEGAL CHAD Khartoum Asmara Sanaa Banjul BURKINA THE GAMBIA Bamako Niamey Zinder Lac'Assal FASO S U D A N Gulf of (lowest point in Aden Socotra Bissau N'Djamena Africa, -155 m) Djibouti (YEMEN) GUINEA-BISSAU Ouagadougou Kano DJIBOUTI GUINEA Conakry BENIN NIGERIA Hargeysa CÔTE GHANA Addis Freetown Abuja Moundou SIERRA LEONE TOGO Ogbomoso Ababa D'IVOIRE Prov. Ibadan ETHIOPIA Admin. Monrovia Lomé Lagos CENTRAL AFRICAN Line SOMALIA Yamoussoukro Accra REPUBLIC LIBERIA Porto- CAMEROON Bangui Juba Abidjan Novo Douala Malabo EQUATORIAL GUINEA Yaoundé C O N G O UGANDA Gulf of Guinea Mogadishu SAO TOME REP. OF Kisangani Kampala KENYA AND PRINCIPE Libreville THE São Tomé GABON CONGO B A S I N Nairobi Annobón RWANDA Kigali (EQUA. GUI.) DEM. REP. I n d i a n Lake Mt. Kilimanjaro Bukavu (highest point in Victoria Brazzaville Victoria OF THE CONGO Bujumbura Africa, 5895 m) Pointe-Noire BURUNDI Mombasa Kinshasa ANGOLA Kananga Lake Dodoma Tanganyika Kenya, Zanzibar 27 (Cabinda) Ascension Mbuji-Mayi TANZANIA Dar es SEYCHELLES (St. Helena) Luanda Salaam Lake S o u t h Nyasa COMOROS St. Helena Lubumbashi Moroni Glorioso Islands (U.K.) MALAWI A t l a n t i c ANGOLA Kitwe Mayotte Lilongwe Cidade (admin. by France, claimed by Comoros) Lubango de Nacala ZAMBIA Tromelin Isla Namibe Blantyre Lusaka Juan de Nova Island Mahajanga St. Helena (St. Helena) Toamasina MOZAMBIQUE Harare ZIMBABWE Mozambique Antananarivo Port Beira Louis 2 Channel St. Denis 2 Windhoek BOTSWANA Bassas MAURIT da India Walvis Bay Europa MADAGASCAR K A L A H A R I Reunion Island NAMIBIA D E S E R T Gaborone Pretoria Maputo Johannesburg Mbabane SOUTH SWAZILAND Zimbabwe, 28 Maseru Durban AFRICA LESOTHO Niger Equator Tropic of Capricorn Volta Tropic of Cancer Benue Cape Town I n d i a n Azimuthal Equal-Area Projection 8 Kilometers Scale 1:51,4, 8 Miles N A M I B D E S E R T Congo Danube Orange Zambezi Port Elizabeth White Blue G R E A T Volga R I F T V A L L E Y

4 2 Dublin 2 Minsk 4 6 IRE. U.K. Amsterdam Berlin London Warsaw BELARUS RUSSIA NETH. KAZAKHSTAN Brussels GERMANY POLAND Kyiv N o r t h BEL. LUX. Prague CZ. REP. UKRAINE Aral SLOV. Paris A t l a n t i c Vienna Bratislava Rostov MOL. SWITZ. AUS. Budapest Chisinau Bern FRANCE SLO. HUNG. of Tashkent ROM. Azov Ljubljana Odesa CRO. Belgrade 4 Milan Zagreb Bucharest UZBEKISTAN Marseille BOS. & SER. AND. HER. Black ITALY GEO. Caspian Sarajevo MONT. Sofia Tbilisi Ponta BULG. TURKMENISTAN PORTUGAL Barcelona Corsica Rome Podgorica Delgada Skopje Istanbul ARM. AZER. Baku AZORES Madrid Tirana Ashgabat MACE. Ankara Yerevan (PORTUGAL) Lisbon Naples ALB. SPAIN Sardinia GREECE. Mashhad Izmir TURKEY Tabriz - Algiers Tunis Adana Sicily Athens Tehran Strait of Gibraltar Oran Aleppo AFG MADEIRA ISLANDS Valletta Nicosia (PORTUGAL) Rabat Constantine SYRIA MALTA IRAQ Casablanca Fès CYPRUS LEB. Damascus Esfahan - TUNISIA IRAN Funchal Mediterranean Beirut MOROCCO Baghdad Jerusalem Guinea, ISRAEL Amman CANARY 28 ISLANDS Marrakech Tripoli Banghazi - - Alexandria Shiraz - (SPAIN) Cairo JORDAN Kuwait Bandar KUWAIT 'Abbas - Las Palmas Al Jizah - Persian Laayoune A L G E R I A Manama Gulf (El Aaiún) Abu BAHR. Western L I B Y A EGYPT Riyadh Doha Dhabi Mus Sahara Medina QATAR U.A.E Al Jawf Aswan - SAUDI OMAN Admin. boundary Nouadhibou Jiddah 2 ARABIA 2 MAURITANIA S A H A R A Mecca Port Red Sudan CAPE VERDE Nouakchott Tombouctou N I G E R Praia ERITREA Dakar Agadez Omdurman YEMEN MALI Arabian SENEGAL CHAD Khartoum Asmara Sanaa Banjul BURKINA THE GAMBIA Bamako Niamey Zinder Lac'Assal FASO S U D A N Gulf of (lowest point in Aden Socotra Bissau N'Djamena Africa, -155 m) Djibouti (YEMEN) GUINEA-BISSAU Ouagadougou Kano DJIBOUTI GUINEA Conakry BENIN NIGERIA Hargeysa CÔTE GHANA Addis Freetown Abuja Moundou SIERRA LEONE TOGO Ogbomoso Ababa D'IVOIRE Prov. Ibadan ETHIOPIA Admin. Monrovia Lomé Lagos CENTRAL AFRICAN Line SOMALIA Yamoussoukro Accra REPUBLIC LIBERIA Porto- CAMEROON Bangui Juba Abidjan Novo Douala Malabo EQUATORIAL GUINEA Yaoundé C O N G O UGANDA Gulf of Guinea Mogadishu SAO TOME REP. OF Kisangani Kampala KENYA AND PRINCIPE Libreville THE São Tomé GABON CONGO B A S I N Nairobi Annobón RWANDA Kigali (EQUA. GUI.) DEM. REP. I n d i a n Lake Mt. Kilimanjaro Bukavu (highest point in Victoria Brazzaville Victoria OF THE CONGO Bujumbura Africa, 5895 m) Pointe-Noire BURUNDI Mombasa Kinshasa ANGOLA Kananga Lake Dodoma Tanganyika Kenya, Zanzibar 27 (Cabinda) Ascension Mbuji-Mayi TANZANIA Dar es SEYCHELLES (St. Helena) Luanda Salaam Lake S o u t h Nyasa COMOROS St. Helena Lubumbashi Moroni Glorioso Islands (U.K.) MALAWI A t l a n t i c ANGOLA Kitwe Mayotte Lilongwe Cidade (admin. by France, claimed by Comoros) Lubango de Nacala ZAMBIA Tromelin Isla Namibe Blantyre Lusaka Juan de Nova Island Mahajanga St. Helena (St. Helena) Toamasina MOZAMBIQUE Harare ZIMBABWE Mozambique Antananarivo Port Beira Louis 2 Channel St. Denis 2 Windhoek BOTSWANA Bassas MAURIT da India Walvis Bay Europa MADAGASCAR K A L A H A R I Reunion Island NAMIBIA D E S E R T Gaborone Pretoria Maputo Johannesburg Mbabane SOUTH SWAZILAND Zimbabwe, 28 Maseru Durban AFRICA LESOTHO Niger Equator Tropic of Capricorn Volta Tropic of Cancer Benue Cape Town I n d i a n Azimuthal Equal-Area Projection 8 Kilometers Scale 1:51,4, 8 Miles N A M I B D E S E R T Congo Danube Orange Zambezi Port Elizabeth White Blue G R E A T Volga R I F T V A L L E Y Madagascar, 29

4 2 Dublin 2 Minsk 4 6 IRE. U.K. Amsterdam Berlin London Warsaw BELARUS RUSSIA NETH. KAZAKHSTAN Brussels GERMANY POLAND Kyiv N o r t h BEL. LUX. Prague CZ. REP. UKRAINE Aral SLOV. Paris A t l a n t i c Vienna Bratislava Rostov MOL. SWITZ. AUS. Budapest Chisinau Bern FRANCE SLO. HUNG. of Tashkent ROM. Azov Ljubljana Odesa CRO. Belgrade 4 Milan Zagreb Bucharest UZBEKISTAN Marseille BOS. & SER. AND. HER. Black ITALY GEO. Caspian Sarajevo MONT. Sofia Tbilisi Ponta BULG. TURKMENISTAN PORTUGAL Barcelona Corsica Rome Podgorica Delgada Skopje Istanbul ARM. AZER. Baku AZORES Madrid Tirana Ashgabat MACE. Ankara Yerevan (PORTUGAL) Lisbon Naples ALB. SPAIN Sardinia GREECE. Mashhad Izmir TURKEY Tabriz - Algiers Tunis Adana Sicily Athens Tehran Strait of Gibraltar Oran Aleppo AFG MADEIRA ISLANDS Valletta Nicosia (PORTUGAL) Rabat Constantine SYRIA MALTA IRAQ Casablanca Fès CYPRUS LEB. Damascus Esfahan - TUNISIA IRAN Funchal Mediterranean Beirut MOROCCO Baghdad Jerusalem Guinea, ISRAEL Amman CANARY 28 ISLANDS Marrakech Tripoli Banghazi - - Alexandria Shiraz - (SPAIN) Cairo JORDAN Kuwait Bandar KUWAIT 'Abbas - Las Palmas Al Jizah - Persian Laayoune A L G E R I A Manama Gulf (El Aaiún) Abu BAHR. Western L I B Y A EGYPT Riyadh Doha Dhabi Mus Sahara Medina QATAR U.A.E Al Jawf Aswan - SAUDI OMAN Admin. boundary Nouadhibou Jiddah 2 ARABIA 2 MAURITANIA S A H A R A Mecca Port Red Sudan CAPE VERDE Nouakchott Tombouctou N I G E R Praia ERITREA Dakar Agadez Omdurman YEMEN MALI Arabian SENEGAL CHAD Khartoum Asmara Sanaa Banjul BURKINA THE GAMBIA Bamako Niamey Zinder Lac'Assal FASO S U D A N Gulf of (lowest point in Aden Socotra Bissau N'Djamena Africa, -155 m) Djibouti (YEMEN) GUINEA-BISSAU Ouagadougou Kano DJIBOUTI GUINEA Conakry BENIN NIGERIA Hargeysa CÔTE GHANA Addis Freetown Abuja Moundou SIERRA LEONE TOGO Ogbomoso Ababa D'IVOIRE Prov. Ibadan ETHIOPIA Admin. Monrovia Lomé Lagos CENTRAL AFRICAN Line SOMALIA Yamoussoukro Accra REPUBLIC LIBERIA Porto- CAMEROON Bangui Juba Abidjan Novo Douala Malabo EQUATORIAL GUINEA Yaoundé C O N G O UGANDA Gulf of Guinea Mogadishu SAO TOME REP. OF Kisangani Kampala KENYA AND PRINCIPE Libreville THE São Tomé GABON CONGO B A S I N Nairobi Annobón RWANDA Kigali (EQUA. GUI.) DEM. REP. I n d i a n Lake Mt. Kilimanjaro Cote d'ivoire, 21 Bukavu (highest point in Victoria Brazzaville Victoria OF THE CONGO Bujumbura Africa, 5895 m) Pointe-Noire BURUNDI Mombasa Kinshasa ANGOLA Kananga Lake Dodoma Tanganyika Kenya, Zanzibar 27 (Cabinda) Ascension Mbuji-Mayi TANZANIA Dar es SEYCHELLES (St. Helena) Luanda Salaam Lake S o u t h Nyasa COMOROS St. Helena Lubumbashi Moroni Glorioso Islands (U.K.) MALAWI A t l a n t i c ANGOLA Kitwe Mayotte Lilongwe Cidade (admin. by France, claimed by Comoros) Lubango de Nacala ZAMBIA Tromelin Isla Namibe Blantyre Lusaka Juan de Nova Island Mahajanga St. Helena (St. Helena) Toamasina MOZAMBIQUE Harare ZIMBABWE Mozambique Antananarivo Port Beira Louis 2 Channel St. Denis 2 Windhoek BOTSWANA Bassas MAURIT da India Walvis Bay Europa MADAGASCAR K A L A H A R I Reunion Island NAMIBIA D E S E R T Gaborone Pretoria Maputo Johannesburg Mbabane SOUTH SWAZILAND Zimbabwe, 28 Maseru Durban AFRICA LESOTHO Niger Equator Tropic of Capricorn Volta Tropic of Cancer Benue N A M I B D E S E R T Cape Town I n d i a n Azimuthal Equal-Area Projection 8 Kilometers Scale 1:51,4, 8 Miles Congo Danube Orange Zambezi Port Elizabeth White Blue G R E A T Volga R I F T V A L L E Y Madagascar, 29

4 2 Dublin 2 Minsk 4 6 IRE. U.K. Amsterdam Berlin London Warsaw BELARUS RUSSIA NETH. KAZAKHSTAN Brussels GERMANY POLAND Kyiv N o r t h BEL. LUX. Prague CZ. REP. UKRAINE Aral SLOV. Paris A t l a n t i c Vienna Bratislava Rostov MOL. SWITZ. AUS. Budapest Chisinau Bern FRANCE SLO. HUNG. of Tashkent ROM. Azov Ljubljana Odesa CRO. Belgrade 4 Milan Zagreb Bucharest UZBEKISTAN Marseille BOS. & SER. AND. HER. Black ITALY GEO. Caspian Sarajevo MONT. Sofia Tbilisi Ponta BULG. TURKMENISTAN PORTUGAL Barcelona Corsica Rome Podgorica Delgada Skopje Istanbul ARM. AZER. Baku AZORES Madrid Tirana Ashgabat MACE. Ankara Yerevan (PORTUGAL) Lisbon Naples ALB. SPAIN Sardinia GREECE. Mashhad Izmir TURKEY Tabriz - Algiers Tunis Adana Sicily Athens Tehran Strait of Gibraltar Oran Aleppo AFG MADEIRA ISLANDS Valletta Nicosia (PORTUGAL) Rabat Constantine SYRIA MALTA IRAQ Casablanca Fès CYPRUS LEB. Damascus Esfahan - TUNISIA IRAN Funchal Mediterranean Beirut MOROCCO Baghdad Jerusalem Guinea, ISRAEL Amman CANARY 28 ISLANDS Marrakech Tripoli Banghazi - - Alexandria Shiraz - (SPAIN) Cairo JORDAN Kuwait Bandar KUWAIT 'Abbas - Las Palmas Al Jizah - Persian Laayoune A L G E R I A Manama Gulf (El Aaiún) Abu BAHR. Western L I B Y A EGYPT Riyadh Doha Dhabi Mus Sahara Medina QATAR U.A.E Al Jawf Aswan - SAUDI OMAN Admin. boundary Nouadhibou Jiddah 2 ARABIA 2 MAURITANIA S A H A R A Mecca Port Red Sudan CAPE VERDE Nouakchott Tombouctou N I G E R Praia ERITREA Dakar Agadez Omdurman YEMEN MALI Arabian SENEGAL CHAD Khartoum Asmara Sanaa Banjul BURKINA THE GAMBIA Bamako Niamey Zinder Lac'Assal FASO S U D A N Gulf of (lowest point in Aden Socotra Bissau N'Djamena Africa, -155 m) Djibouti (YEMEN) GUINEA-BISSAU Ouagadougou Kano DJIBOUTI GUINEA Conakry BENIN NIGERIA Hargeysa CÔTE GHANA Addis Freetown Abuja Moundou SIERRA LEONE TOGO Ogbomoso Ababa D'IVOIRE Prov. Ibadan ETHIOPIA Admin. Monrovia Lomé Lagos CENTRAL AFRICAN Line SOMALIA Yamoussoukro Accra REPUBLIC LIBERIA Porto- CAMEROON Bangui Juba Abidjan Novo Douala Malabo EQUATORIAL GUINEA Yaoundé C O N G O UGANDA Gulf of Guinea Mogadishu SAO TOME REP. OF Kisangani Kampala KENYA AND PRINCIPE Libreville THE São Tomé GABON CONGO B A S I N Nairobi Annobón RWANDA Kigali (EQUA. GUI.) DEM. REP. I n d i a n Lake Mt. Kilimanjaro Cote d'ivoire, 21 Bukavu (highest point in Victoria Brazzaville Victoria OF THE CONGO Bujumbura Africa, 5895 m) Pointe-Noire BURUNDI Mombasa Kinshasa ANGOLA Kananga Lake Dodoma Tanganyika Kenya, Zanzibar 27 (Cabinda) Ascension Nigeria, 211 Mbuji-Mayi TANZANIA Dar es SEYCHELLES (St. Helena) Luanda Salaam Lake S o u t h Nyasa COMOROS St. Helena Lubumbashi Moroni Glorioso Islands (U.K.) MALAWI A t l a n t i c ANGOLA Kitwe Mayotte Lilongwe Cidade (admin. by France, claimed by Comoros) Lubango de Nacala ZAMBIA Tromelin Isla Namibe Blantyre Lusaka Juan de Nova Island Mahajanga St. Helena (St. Helena) Toamasina MOZAMBIQUE Harare ZIMBABWE Mozambique Antananarivo Port Beira Louis 2 Channel St. Denis 2 Windhoek BOTSWANA Bassas MAURIT da India Walvis Bay Europa MADAGASCAR K A L A H A R I Reunion Island NAMIBIA D E S E R T Gaborone Pretoria Maputo Johannesburg Mbabane SOUTH SWAZILAND Zimbabwe, 28 Maseru Durban AFRICA LESOTHO Niger Equator Tropic of Capricorn Volta Tropic of Cancer Benue N A M I B D E S E R T Cape Town I n d i a n Azimuthal Equal-Area Projection 8 Kilometers Scale 1:51,4, 8 Miles Congo Danube Orange Zambezi Port Elizabeth White Blue G R E A T Volga R I F T V A L L E Y Madagascar, 29

4 2 Dublin 2 Minsk 4 6 IRE. U.K. Amsterdam Berlin London Warsaw BELARUS RUSSIA NETH. KAZAKHSTAN Brussels GERMANY POLAND Kyiv N o r t h BEL. LUX. Prague CZ. REP. UKRAINE Aral SLOV. Paris A t l a n t i c Vienna Bratislava Rostov MOL. SWITZ. AUS. Budapest Chisinau Bern FRANCE SLO. HUNG. of Tashkent ROM. Azov Ljubljana Odesa CRO. Belgrade 4 Milan Zagreb Bucharest UZBEKISTAN Marseille BOS. & SER. AND. HER. Black ITALY GEO. Caspian Sarajevo MONT. Sofia Tbilisi Ponta BULG. TURKMENISTAN PORTUGAL Barcelona Corsica Rome Podgorica Delgada Skopje Istanbul ARM. AZER. Baku AZORES Madrid Tirana Ashgabat MACE. Ankara Yerevan (PORTUGAL) Lisbon Naples ALB. SPAIN Sardinia GREECE. Mashhad Izmir TURKEY Tabriz - Algiers Tunis Adana Sicily Athens Tehran Strait of Gibraltar Oran Aleppo AFG MADEIRA ISLANDS Valletta Nicosia (PORTUGAL) Rabat Constantine SYRIA MALTA IRAQ Casablanca Fès CYPRUS LEB. Damascus Esfahan - TUNISIA IRAN Funchal Mediterranean Beirut MOROCCO Baghdad Jerusalem Guinea, ISRAEL Amman CANARY 28 ISLANDS Marrakech Tripoli Banghazi - - Alexandria Shiraz - (SPAIN) Cairo JORDAN Kuwait Bandar KUWAIT 'Abbas - Las Palmas Al Jizah - Persian Laayoune A L G E R I A Manama Gulf (El Aaiún) Abu BAHR. Western Mali, 212 L I B Y A EGYPT Riyadh Doha Dhabi Mus Sahara Medina QATAR U.A.E Al Jawf Aswan - SAUDI OMAN Admin. boundary Nouadhibou Jiddah 2 ARABIA 2 MAURITANIA S A H A R A Mecca Port Red Sudan CAPE VERDE Nouakchott Tombouctou N I G E R Praia ERITREA Dakar Agadez Omdurman YEMEN MALI Arabian SENEGAL CHAD Khartoum Asmara Sanaa Banjul BURKINA THE GAMBIA Bamako Niamey Zinder Lac'Assal FASO S U D A N Gulf of (lowest point in Aden Socotra Bissau N'Djamena Africa, -155 m) Djibouti (YEMEN) GUINEA-BISSAU Ouagadougou Kano DJIBOUTI GUINEA Conakry BENIN NIGERIA Hargeysa CÔTE GHANA Addis Freetown Abuja Moundou SIERRA LEONE TOGO Ogbomoso Ababa D'IVOIRE Prov. Ibadan ETHIOPIA Admin. Monrovia Lomé Lagos CENTRAL AFRICAN Line SOMALIA Yamoussoukro Accra REPUBLIC LIBERIA Porto- CAMEROON Novo Bangui Juba Abidjan Douala Malabo EQUATORIAL GUINEA Yaoundé C O N G O UGANDA Gulf of Guinea Mogadishu SAO TOME REP. OF Kisangani Kampala KENYA AND PRINCIPE Libreville THE São Tomé GABON CONGO B A S I N Nairobi Annobón RWANDA Kigali (EQUA. GUI.) DEM. REP. I n d i a n Lake Mt. Kilimanjaro Cote d'ivoire, 21 Bukavu (highest point in Victoria Brazzaville Victoria OF THE CONGO Bujumbura Africa, 5895 m) Pointe-Noire BURUNDI Mombasa Kinshasa ANGOLA Kananga Lake Dodoma Tanganyika Kenya, Zanzibar 27 (Cabinda) Ascension Nigeria, 211 Mbuji-Mayi TANZANIA Dar es SEYCHELLES (St. Helena) Luanda Salaam Lake S o u t h Nyasa COMOROS St. Helena Lubumbashi Moroni Glorioso Islands (U.K.) MALAWI A t l a n t i c ANGOLA Kitwe Mayotte Lilongwe Cidade (admin. by France, claimed by Comoros) Lubango de Nacala ZAMBIA Tromelin Isla Namibe Blantyre Lusaka Juan de Nova Island Mahajanga St. Helena (St. Helena) Toamasina MOZAMBIQUE Harare ZIMBABWE Mozambique Antananarivo Port Beira Louis 2 Channel St. Denis 2 Windhoek BOTSWANA Bassas MAURIT da India Walvis Bay Europa MADAGASCAR K A L A H A R I Reunion Island NAMIBIA D E S E R T Gaborone Pretoria Maputo Johannesburg Mbabane SOUTH SWAZILAND Zimbabwe, 28 Maseru Durban AFRICA LESOTHO Niger Equator Tropic of Capricorn Volta Tropic of Cancer Benue N A M I B D E S E R T Cape Town I n d i a n Azimuthal Equal-Area Projection 8 Kilometers Scale 1:51,4, 8 Miles Congo Danube Orange Zambezi Port Elizabeth White Blue G R E A T Volga R I F T V A L L E Y Madagascar, 29

4 2 Dublin 2 Minsk 4 6 IRE. U.K. Amsterdam Berlin London Warsaw BELARUS RUSSIA NETH. KAZAKHSTAN Brussels GERMANY POLAND Kyiv N o r t h BEL. LUX. Prague CZ. REP. UKRAINE Aral SLOV. Paris A t l a n t i c Vienna Bratislava Rostov MOL. SWITZ. AUS. Budapest Chisinau Bern FRANCE SLO. HUNG. of Tashkent ROM. Azov Ljubljana Odesa CRO. Belgrade 4 Milan Zagreb Bucharest UZBEKISTAN Marseille BOS. & SER. AND. HER. Black ITALY GEO. Caspian Sarajevo MONT. Sofia Tbilisi Ponta BULG. TURKMENISTAN PORTUGAL Barcelona Corsica Rome Podgorica Delgada Skopje Istanbul ARM. AZER. Baku AZORES Madrid Tirana Ashgabat MACE. Ankara Yerevan (PORTUGAL) Lisbon Naples ALB. SPAIN Sardinia GREECE. Mashhad Izmir TURKEY Tabriz - Algiers Tunis Adana Sicily Athens Tehran Strait of Gibraltar Oran Aleppo AFG MADEIRA ISLANDS Valletta Nicosia (PORTUGAL) Rabat Constantine SYRIA MALTA IRAQ Casablanca Fès CYPRUS LEB. Damascus Esfahan - TUNISIA IRAN Funchal Mediterranean Beirut MOROCCO Baghdad Jerusalem Guinea, ISRAEL Amman CANARY 28 ISLANDS Marrakech Tripoli Banghazi - - Alexandria Shiraz - (SPAIN) Cairo JORDAN Kuwait Bandar KUWAIT 'Abbas - Las Palmas Al Jizah - Persian Laayoune A L G E R I A Manama Gulf (El Aaiún) Abu BAHR. Western Mali, 212 L I B Y A EGYPT Riyadh Doha Dhabi Mus Sahara Medina QATAR U.A.E Al Jawf Aswan - SAUDI OMAN Admin. boundary Nouadhibou Jiddah 2 ARABIA 2 MAURITANIA S A H A R A Mecca Port Red Sudan CAPE VERDE Nouakchott Tombouctou N I G E R Praia ERITREA Dakar Agadez Omdurman YEMEN MALI Arabian SENEGAL CHAD Khartoum Asmara Sanaa Banjul BURKINA THE GAMBIA Bamako Niamey Zinder Lac'Assal FASO S U D A N Gulf of (lowest point in Aden Socotra Bissau N'Djamena Africa, -155 m) Djibouti (YEMEN) GUINEA-BISSAU Ouagadougou Kano DJIBOUTI GUINEA Conakry BENIN NIGERIA Hargeysa CÔTE GHANA Addis Ghana, 28 Freetown Abuja Moundou SIERRA LEONE TOGO Ogbomoso Ababa D'IVOIRE Prov. Ibadan ETHIOPIA Admin. Monrovia Lomé Lagos CENTRAL AFRICAN Line SOMALIA Yamoussoukro Accra REPUBLIC LIBERIA Porto- CAMEROON Novo Bangui Juba Abidjan Douala Malabo EQUATORIAL GUINEA Yaoundé C O N G O Senegal, 212 UGANDA Gulf of Guinea Mogadishu SAO TOME REP. OF Kisangani Kampala KENYA AND PRINCIPE Libreville THE São Tomé GABON CONGO B A S I N Nairobi Annobón RWANDA Kigali (EQUA. GUI.) DEM. REP. I n d i a n Lake Mt. Kilimanjaro Cote d'ivoire, 21 Bukavu (highest point in Victoria Brazzaville Victoria OF THE CONGO Bujumbura Africa, 5895 m) Pointe-Noire BURUNDI Mombasa Kinshasa ANGOLA Kananga Lake Dodoma Tanganyika Kenya, Zanzibar 27 (Cabinda) Ascension Nigeria, 211 Mbuji-Mayi TANZANIA Dar es SEYCHELLES (St. Helena) Luanda Salaam Lake S o u t h Nyasa COMOROS St. Helena Lubumbashi Moroni Glorioso Islands (U.K.) MALAWI A t l a n t i c ANGOLA Kitwe Mayotte Lilongwe Cidade (admin. by France, Zambia, 211 claimed by Comoros) Lubango de Nacala ZAMBIA Tromelin Isla Namibe Blantyre Lusaka Juan de Nova Island Mahajanga St. Helena (St. Helena) Toamasina MOZAMBIQUE Harare ZIMBABWE Mozambique Antananarivo Port Beira Louis 2 Channel St. Denis 2 Windhoek BOTSWANA Bassas MAURIT da India Walvis Bay Europa MADAGASCAR K A L A H A R I Reunion Island NAMIBIA D E S E R T Gaborone Pretoria Maputo Johannesburg Mbabane SOUTH SWAZILAND Zimbabwe, 28 Maseru Durban AFRICA LESOTHO Niger Equator Tropic of Capricorn Volta Tropic of Cancer Benue N A M I B D E S E R T Cape Town I n d i a n Azimuthal Equal-Area Projection 8 Kilometers Scale 1:51,4, 8 Miles Congo Danube Orange Zambezi Port Elizabeth White Blue G R E A T Volga R I F T V A L L E Y Madagascar, 29

4 2 Dublin 2 Minsk 4 6 IRE. U.K. Amsterdam Berlin London Warsaw BELARUS RUSSIA NETH. KAZAKHSTAN Brussels GERMANY POLAND Kyiv N o r t h BEL. LUX. Prague CZ. REP. UKRAINE Aral SLOV. Paris A t l a n t i c Vienna Bratislava Rostov MOL. SWITZ. AUS. Budapest Chisinau Bern FRANCE SLO. HUNG. of Tashkent ROM. Azov Ljubljana Odesa CRO. Belgrade 4 Milan Zagreb Bucharest UZBEKISTAN Marseille BOS. & SER. AND. HER. Black ITALY GEO. Caspian Sarajevo MONT. Sofia Tbilisi Ponta BULG. TURKMENISTAN PORTUGAL Barcelona Corsica Rome Podgorica Delgada Skopje Istanbul ARM. AZER. Baku AZORES Madrid Tirana Ashgabat MACE. Ankara Yerevan (PORTUGAL) Lisbon Naples ALB. SPAIN Sardinia GREECE. Mashhad Izmir TURKEY Tabriz - Algiers Tunis Adana Sicily Athens Tehran Strait of Gibraltar Oran Aleppo AFG MADEIRA ISLANDS Valletta Nicosia (PORTUGAL) Rabat Constantine SYRIA MALTA IRAQ Casablanca Fès CYPRUS LEB. Damascus Esfahan - TUNISIA IRAN Funchal Mediterranean Beirut MOROCCO Baghdad Jerusalem Guinea, ISRAEL Amman CANARY 28 ISLANDS Marrakech Tripoli Banghazi - - Alexandria Shiraz - (SPAIN) Cairo JORDAN Kuwait Bandar KUWAIT 'Abbas - Las Palmas Al Jizah - Persian Laayoune A L G E R I A Manama Gulf (El Aaiún) Abu BAHR. Western Mali, 212 L I B Y A EGYPT Riyadh Doha Dhabi Mus Sahara Medina QATAR U.A.E Al Jawf Aswan - SAUDI OMAN Admin. boundary Nouadhibou Jiddah 2 ARABIA 2 MAURITANIA S A H A R A Mecca Port Red Sudan CAPE VERDE Nouakchott Tombouctou N I G E R Praia ERITREA Dakar Agadez Omdurman YEMEN MALI Arabian SENEGAL CHAD Khartoum Asmara Sanaa Banjul BURKINA THE GAMBIA Bamako Niamey Zinder Lac'Assal FASO S U D A N Gulf of (lowest point in Aden Socotra Bissau N'Djamena Africa, -155 m) Djibouti (YEMEN) GUINEA-BISSAU Ouagadougou Kano DJIBOUTI GUINEA Conakry BENIN NIGERIA Hargeysa CÔTE GHANA Addis Freetown Abuja Moundou SIERRA LEONE TOGO Ogbomoso Ababa D'IVOIRE Prov. Ibadan ETHIOPIA Admin. Monrovia Lomé Lagos CENTRAL AFRICAN Line SOMALIA Yamoussoukro Accra REPUBLIC LIBERIA Porto- CAMEROON Novo Bangui Juba Abidjan Douala Malabo EQUATORIAL GUINEA Yaoundé C O N G O UGANDA Gulf of Guinea Mogadishu SAO TOME REP. OF Kisangani Kampala KENYA AND PRINCIPE Libreville THE São Tomé GABON CONGO B A S I N Nairobi Annobón RWANDA Kigali (EQUA. GUI.) DEM. REP. I n d i a n Lake Mt. Kilimanjaro Cote d'ivoire, 21 Bukavu (highest point in Victoria Brazzaville Victoria OF THE CONGO Bujumbura Africa, 5895 m) Pointe-Noire BURUNDI Mombasa Kinshasa ANGOLA Kananga Lake Dodoma Tanganyika Kenya, Zanzibar 27 (Cabinda) Ascension Nigeria, 211 Mbuji-Mayi TANZANIA Dar es SEYCHELLES (St. Helena) Luanda Salaam Lake S o u t h Nyasa COMOROS St. Helena Lubumbashi Moroni Glorioso Islands (U.K.) MALAWI A t l a n t i c ANGOLA Kitwe Mayotte Lilongwe Cidade (admin. by France, claimed by Comoros) Lubango de Nacala ZAMBIA Tromelin Isla Namibe Blantyre Lusaka Juan de Nova Island Mahajanga St. Helena (St. Helena) Toamasina MOZAMBIQUE Harare ZIMBABWE Mozambique Antananarivo Port Beira Louis 2 Channel St. Denis 2 Windhoek BOTSWANA Bassas MAURIT da India Walvis Bay Europa MADAGASCAR K A L A H A R I Reunion Island NAMIBIA D E S E R T Gaborone Pretoria Maputo Johannesburg Mbabane SOUTH SWAZILAND Zimbabwe, 28 Maseru Durban AFRICA LESOTHO Niger Equator Tropic of Capricorn Volta Tropic of Cancer Benue N A M I B D E S E R T Cape Town I n d i a n Azimuthal Equal-Area Projection 8 Kilometers Scale 1:51,4, 8 Miles Congo Danube Orange Zambezi Port Elizabeth White Blue G R E A T Volga R I F T V A L L E Y Madagascar, 29

Kenya's Post-Election Violence Lodwar RIFT VALLEY EASTERN Moyale NORTH EASTERN Kitale WESTERN Eldoret Baringo Kakamega Kisumu Mt. Kenya CENTRAL Nakuru Chuka Kisii Sotik Nyeri Embu NYANZA Narok Nairobi NAIROBI Kitui Machakos KEY Theatres of violence COAST Garissa Malindi Map 1: The main theatres of conflict Mombasa

Our Study Sample: Not Directly Aected Lodwar RIFT VALLEY EASTERN Moyale NORTH EASTERN Kitale WESTERN Eldoret Baringo Kakamega Kisumu Mt. Kenya CENTRAL Nakuru Chuka Kisii Sotik Nyeri Embu NYANZA Narok Nairobi NAIROBI Kitui Machakos KEY Theatres of violence COAST Garissa Malindi Map 1: The main theatres of conflict Mombasa

Impacts on Economic Activity Retail Prices (Normalized) 1 15 11 115 12 125 nov dec jan1 jan2 jan3 feb mar Milk (25ml) Bar of Soap 5 Ksh Phone Card Cooking Oil Sugar (1kg) Coke (3ml)

Our Sample 3 distinct samples that we had been following for several years for various research projects: 1. Small-scale market and street vendors Very poor entrepreneurs Average daily expend $1.5 per day Average daily investment $5 per day 2. Shopkeepers Middle class Average daily expend $6 per day Prots closer to $1 per day 3. Women who supply transactional sex Average daily expenditures $5 per day Typically get income from both transactional sex and other activity

Data Post-election Survey in late March 28 Detailed module on sexual behavior for sample of women who supply transactional sex

Impacts on Income 4 6 8 1 Market Vendors Total Income 95% CI nov dec jan1 jan2 jan3 feb mar 5 1 Shopkeepers Total Income 95% CI nov dec jan1 jan2 jan3 feb mar Sex Workers

Impacts on Food Consumption.5 nov dec jan1 jan2 jan3 feb mar Market Vendors.5 1 1.5 2.5 1 1.5 Shopkeepers nov dec jan1 jan2 jan3 feb mar nov dec jan1shopkeepers jan2 jan3 feb mar.2.4.1.2 2.5 1 1.5 2 Sex Workers nov dec jan1 jan2 jan3 feb mar.1.2.2.4.6 nov dec jan1 jan2 jan3 jan4 feb mar Sex Workers 2 # Days HH had Meat for Dinner 95% CI # Days HH Skipped Lunch (right axis) 95% CI.2.4.6

Impacts on women who supply transactional sex?

Impacts on women who supply transactional sex nov dec jan1 jan2 jan3 feb mar 5 1 Sex Workers 5 1 15 nov dec jan1 jan2 jan3 jan4 feb mar Income from Sex Work Other Income (right axis) 95% CI

Impacts on women who supply sex 2 9 95 nov dec jan1 jan2 jan3 feb 1 2 3 Sex Workers nov dec jan1 jan2 jan3 jan4 feb 4 5 6 7 Total Expenditures Food Expenditures (right axis) 95% CI

Risk-taking among women who supply sex Times Unprotected Vaginal Sex # Unprotected Vaginal / # Clients.2.4.6.8 1.4.6.8 1 nov dec jan1 jan2 jan3 jan4 feb mar nov dec jan1 jan2 jan3 jan4 feb mar Average 95% CI Average 95% CI

Risk-taking among women who supply sex Times Unprotected Anal Sex # Unprotected Anal / # Clients.5.1.15.2.25 -.5.5.1.15.2 nov dec jan1 jan2 jan3 jan4 feb mar nov dec jan1 jan2 jan3 jan4 feb mar Average 95% CI Average 95% CI

Implications for HIV/AIDS Mortality rate 13% among our sample of sex workers, suggesting high prevalence of HIV Possibly hightened transmission of HIV to clients Possibly hightened risk for women not yet infected We only see the tip of the iceberg... Crisis could have led to entry into transactional sex, both during and after violence Possibly violence against women in violence areas

Conclusion First order consequences of crisis: 1,2 deaths and displacement of 5, or more people Even in areas not directly aected by ethnic clashes / violence, the post-election crisis had large eects: on prices, income and food consumption hidden channel by which political unrest aects health: increase in risky behavior in transactional sex market How do we make sure this does not happen again in next election (March 213)?