The Cairns Property Market Presented by Rick Carr Research Director, Herron Todd White 28 July 2015
National Market Dubbo Gippsland Horsham Latrobe Valley Newcastle Sydney Tamworth Toowoomba W ollongong Peak of Market Approaching Peak of Market Starting to Decline Bathurst Bendigo Brisbane Cairns Canberra Coffs Harbour Echuca Gold Coast Ipswich Melbourne Mildura Mudgee NSW Central Coast South W est W A Sunshine Coast W arrnambool Rising Market Declining Market Darwin Emerald Perth Start of Recovery Approaching Bottom of Market Alice Springs Burnie-Devonport Griffith Hobart Hervey Bay Launceston Orange Townsville W agga W agga W hitsunday Bottom of Market Adelaide Adelaide Hills Albury Barossa Valley Bundaberg Gladstone Mackay Mount Gambier NSW North Coast Rockhampton SA Iron Triangle SA Riverland Shepparton W odonga Source: Residential Property Ratings Compiled by Herron Todd W hite, June 2015
Residential Property Sales Number of Residential Property Sales 10,000 Houses Units Land 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 1990-91 1994-95 1998-99 2002-03 2006-07 2010-11 2014-15 1992-93 1996-97 2000-01 2004-05 2008-09 2012-13 Source: HTW Analysis of RPData
Residential Property Prices Median Sale Price (Log Scale) $450,000 Houses $300,000 $200,000 Units $140,000 $100,000 Vacant Land $70,000 May-05 May-06 May-07 May-08 May-09 May-10 May-11 May-12 May-13 May-14 May-15 Nov-05 Nov-06 Nov-07 Nov-08 Nov-09 Nov-10 Nov-11 Nov-12 Nov-13 Nov-14 * All sales are classified to date of contract (not date of settlement) ** Recent months are provisional and subject to revision Source: HTW Analysis of RPData
House Prices within Cairns Median House Price (Log Scale) $500,000 $450,000 $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 W estern Cairns Central Cairns Southern Corridor Northern Beaches All Cairns $200,000 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Quarter Ended Source: HTW Analysis of RPData
Unit Prices within Cairns Median Apartment Price (Log Scale) $400,000 Residential Apartments Tourist Apartments $280,000 $200,000 $140,000 $100,000 Jun-03 Jun-04 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Quarter Ended * All sales are classified to date of contract (not date of settlement) ** Recent quarters are provisional and subject to revision Source: HTW Analysis of RPData
House Prices within Northern Queensland Median House Trend Price (Log Scale) $480,000 $430,000 $380,000 $330,000 $280,000 Cairns Townsville Mackay $230,000 May-05 Mar-06 Jan-07 Nov-07 Sep-08 Jul-09 May-10 Mar-11 Jan-12 Nov-12 Sep-13 Jul-14 May-15 Oct-05 Aug-06 Jun-07 Apr-08 Feb-09 Dec-09 Oct-10 Aug-11 Jun-12 Apr-13 Feb-14 Dec-14 * All sales are classified to date of contract (not date of settlement) ** Recent months are provisional and subject to revision Source: HTW Analysis of RPData
Residential Property Supply Number of Properties Listed/Available For Sale 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 Houses Units Land 0 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Quarter Ended Source: RPData, HTW Land Survey
Residential Market Metrics Average Days on Market 200 Average Vendor Discount 10% Nov-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 160 8% 120 6% 80 4% 40 2% 0 Houses Units 0% Houses Units Source: HTW Analysis of RPData
Rental Vacancy Rates Percentage Vacancy 8% Houses Units Total 6% 'Balanced Market' Range 4% 2% 0% Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Source: HTW Rentroll Survey
Residential Rents $ per week $450 $400 4BR House $350 3BR Flat 3BR House $300 2BR House $250 2BR Flat $200 1BR Flat $150 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Quarter ended Source: Queensland Residential Tenancies Authority
Residential Building Approvals Number of New Dwellings Approved 3,500 3,000 Houses Units 2,500 2,000 1,500 30-year average 1,394 p.a. 1,000 500 0 1984-85 1988-89 1992-93 1996-97 2000-01 2004-05 2008-09 2012-13 1986-87 1990-91 1994-95 1998-99 2002-03 2006-07 2010-11 2014-15* Source: Derived from ABS data * Estimate based on figures for year-to-date
Commercial/Industrial Sales Number of Sales* 200 Commercial Industrial 150 100 50 0 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 * Sales of Developed Premises incl on Strata Title Source: HTW Analysis of RPData
Commercial Sales Number of Sales 200 Standalone Sales Strata Sales Median Price Per Square Metre Median Price per Square Metre* $4,000 150 $3,000 100 $2,000 50 $1,000 0 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 $0 * For strata sales only Source: HTW Analysis of RPData
Industrial Strata Development Number of Units Registered 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1984-85 1988-89 1992-93 1996-97 2000-01 2004-05 2008-09 2012-13 1986-87 1990-91 1994-95 1998-99 2002-03 2006-07 2010-11 2014-15 Source: HTW Research
Industrial Sales Number of Sales Median Price Per Square Metre 200 Standalone Sales Strata Sales Median Price per Square Metre* $2,500 160 $2,000 120 $1,500 80 $1,000 40 $500 0 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 $0 * For strata sales only Source: HTW Analysis of RPData
Industrial Land Sales Number of Sales 70 60 Number of Sales (Left Axis) Median Price Per Sq Metre (Right Axis) Median Price Per Sq Metre $350 $300 50 $250 40 $200 30 $150 20 $100 10 $50 0 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 $0 Source: HTW Analysis of RPDATA
Commercial/Industrial Yields Net Rental Yield 12.0% Actual Trend 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Source: HTW Analysis
Summary & Outlook Market has moved to the rising market phase: Sales volumes and prices both generally increasing New construction increasing but still comparatively low Rental market tight, rents tending to increase Affordability (relatively low prices & interest rates)
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