PEI Tourism Performance Brian Dunn Manager - Evaluation, Measurements & Business Intelligence Department of Economic Development and Tourism November 25, 2016
Presentation Outline 1. Global Performance & Prosperity 2. Factor Influencing Tourism 3. National Prosperity & Performance 4. National & Regional Updates 5. PEI Performance Updates 6. PEI s Key Markets 7. 2015 Results & 2016 Estimates
1. Global Performance & Prosperity
Number of Arrivals (million) World Tourism Inbound tourism International Tourist Arrivals and Growth Rate during the Period from 2010 to 2015 994 950 (+4.6%) (+6.5%) 1,040 (+4.7%) 1,088 (+4.6%) 1,184 (+4.4%) 1,134 (+4.2%) Sixth consecutive year of robust growth International tourist arrivals (overnight visitors) hit a record 1.2 billion worldwide in 2015, up from 1.1 billion in 2014. Tourism Receipts up 4.4% "Tourism is today a major category of international trade and services" UNWTO Secretary-General Taleb Rafai 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: UNWTO, World Tourism Barometer, Volume 14, May 2016.
Tourism Fuels Prosperity Globally Tourism is a $1.5 Trillion global business* 4 Billion dollars per day 2 Million dollars every minute 1 in 11 jobs worldwide Ranks 3 rd in Global exports after Fuel and Chemicals Source: *UNWTO Annual Report 2015
2. Factors Influencing Tourism
Rebounding Consumer Confidence Favourable Exchange Rate Low Fuel Prices Geopolitical Uncertainty (safety and security)
Consumer Confidence Index rises despite continued job weakness Index of Consumer Confidence by Region, All Respondents (index, 2014 = 100) Source: The Conference Board of Canada
Consumer Confidence Apr 16 Jun 16 Sep 16 CANADA 94.5 99.8 103.0 Atlantic 124.0 111.9 118.7 QC 104.6 116.4 129.0 ON 105.0 102.7 101.7 SK/MB 89.0 91.7 83.9 AB 35.4 53.8 53.9 Prairies (SK/MB/AB) 52.2 66.1 63.7 BC 108.2 112.0 123.5 Index of Consumer Confidence by Region, All Respondents (index, 2014 = 100) Source: The Conference Board of Canada
Source: Gas Buddy Low Gas Prices Continue to Fuel Tourism
Exchange Rate Influence YTD August US Trips to Canada (inbound) up 8.8% YTD August Canadian Trips to US (outbound) down 10.9% 1.05 $1CAD=$1.06USD on July 26, 2011 0.95 0.85 0.75 0.65 $1CAD=$0.69USD on Jan 20, 2016 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 $0.75USD Nov 1, 2016 Source: Bank of Canada
Canada s Global Reputation The 2016 Country RepTrak report* ranked Canada as the country with the 2nd best overall reputation in the world! Ranked #1 Place to Visit Ranked #2 Place to Attend/Organize An Event *The 2016 Country RepTrak report is based on the online answers from 58,000 consumers in the G8 countries and focuses on the 55 countries around the world with the highest GDP.
Best in Travel 2017 Top Countries 10 Destinations you cannot afford to miss Bolstered by the wave of positivity unleashed by its energetic new leader Justin Trudeau, and with dynamic cities that dominate global livability indices and a reputation for inclusiveness and impeccable politeness, the world s second-largest country will usher in its sesquicentennial in 2017 in rollicking good health. And, with a weak Canadian dollar pushing down prices, the overseas visitor should have plenty of pocket money to spend on Canada s exciting fusion food and mysteriously underrated wine. ~ Lonely Planet
3. National Prosperity & Performance
Tourism Fuels Prosperity Nationally Source: National Travel Indicators, Statistics Canada, Q2 2015
Is Canada Keeping Up? Canadians Love to Travel #4 In Tourism Spending/Capita 2015* #7 in total Tourism Spending 2015* Canada is Competitive #10 in Global Travel & Tourism Competitiveness** Enabling Environment, Policy, Infrastructure, Natural & Cultural Resources Sources: * UNWTO Tourism Highlights, 2016 Ed. ** World Economic Forum, Travel & Tourism Competitiveness Report 2015.
Is Canada Keeping Up? Canada is Losing Market Share No longer in the global top 10 Ranked #17 for Arrivals, Ranked #23 for Tourism Receipts, 2015 2004-2014 Tourism Receipts for U.S. have grown 91% 2004-2014 Tourism Receipts Globally have grown 86% 2004-2014 Tourism Receipts for Canada have grown 16%*** *** WTO - Yearbook of Tourism Statistics.
4. National & Regional Updates
Canada YTD to August 2016 Overall trips from all non-residents up 9.4% Overall trips from the U.S. up 8.8% Overall trips from Europe up 11.7% Overall trips from Asia up 14.4% Overall trips from China up 22.5% Overall trips from Japan up 9.8% Source: Statistics Canada Service Bulletin International Travel: Advance Information Note: The above numbers include both same day and overnight trips.
Canada International Overnight Arrivals during the Period from 2010 to 2015 17.97M 16.22M 16.02M 16.34M 16.53M 16.06M 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 In 2015, the number of US overnight visitors rose by 8.3% compared to 2014 to reach nearly 12.5 million (accounting for 70% of all international arrivals) Source: Destination Canada (based on Statistics Canada data)
Atlantic Canada Tourism
Nova Scotia YTD to September 2016 Visitor entries up 9% Visitor entries by road up 8% Overall room-nights sold up 4% Overall site-nights sold up 14% Airport activity up 5% Source: Nova Scotia Department of Economic and Rural Development and Tourism
New Brunswick YTD to September 2016 Overall room nights sold up 5% Room nights sold to New Brunswick residents up 2 % Room nights sold to U.S. and International visitors up 17% Room nights sold to Canadian non-resident visitors up 6% Provincial Park campsites sold up 9% Source: New Brunswick Department of Tourism and Parks
Newfoundland and Labrador YTD to September 2016 Non-resident auto visitors up 6.2% Air visitors up 3.4% Fixed-roof occupancy rate down 0.9% point (YTD to August) Marine Atlantic passenger traffic up 3.8% (both directions) Source: Newfoundland & Labrador Department of Tourism, Culture and Recreation
5. PEI Performance Updates (Occupancy/Traffic)
External Sources Traffic: Strait Crossing Ltd, Northumberland Ferries, Charlottetown Harbour, Summerside Harbour, Charlottetown Airport, Sabre Data (Air Passengers) Attendance, Delegates, etc: Parks Canada, Meetings and Conventions, Golf PEI, Destination Centres Surveys/ Research: Travel Intentions and Conversion surveys (ACTP), Statistics Canada, Conference Board of Canada Other Secondary Research Internal Sources Operators Occupancy Online: Publication Requests, enewsletter subscriptions, Google Analytics, Social Media, ustomer Relationship Management (CRM) Attendance/Calls: Visitors Information Centres, Call Centre, Heritage Sites Surveys: PEI Exit Surveys, Room Rate Survey, Economic Impact Ad Hoc Research Research Sources
Prince Edward Island Performance Non-Resident Visitors Traffic Accommodations Key Markets
Non-Resident Visitors
Number of Non-resident Visitors Trends in Visitation during Shoulder Season Avg. growth rate for FALL shoulder season: +3.2% 278,932 303,082 +8.7% 261,133 257,595 258,941-2.7% -1.4% +0.5% 252,221-2.6% +10.6% 180,993 +1.1% 170,186-6.0% 189,353 +11.3% 202,596 206,631 208,563 +7.0% +2.0% +0.9% Avg. growth rate for SPRING shoulder season: +3.0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016* Sep-Oct Fall Shoulder Season May-Jun Spring Shoulder Season Source: Centre for Tourism Research, PEI Tourism Volume Estimation 2011-2016. * 2016 is a preliminary forecast
Avg Spending per Person per Night Shoulder Season Yield $100 $90 Overnight Pleasure Travel Market by Season May-Jun Spring Shoulder Season Jul-Aug Summer Main Season $80 $70 $60 Nov-Dec Winter Off-Season Jan-Apr Winter Off-Season Sep-Oct Fall Shoulder Season $50 $40 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 Average Number of Nights Stayed in PEI
Performance of Traffic Bridge. Air. Ferry. Cruise. Motorcoach.
Overview - YTD to Sept Significant increase in air, bridge and motorcoach ONS as compared to 2015. YTD to Sept, bridge has the highest level of traffic since its opening. Airport at its highest traffic since tracking started in 1993. YTD to Sept 2016 vs. 2015 2016 vs. Last 5 Years Average Bridge +11.3% +14.4% Air +14.0% +17.3% Ferry -14.0% -10.3% Cruise Ch town Motorcoach Overnight Stays (YTD to Sept) -14.7% -3.3% +28.5% +45.9% Strait Crossing Ltd (Bridge), Charlottetown Airport Authority (Air), Northumberland Ferries Ltd (Ferry), Charlottetown Harbour Authority (Cruise), Tourism PEI ITS (Motorcoach)
Performance of Accommodations Fixed Roof. Campground.
2016 Occupancy Highlights (YTD to Sep) Fixed Roof Room Nights Sold Three (3) consecutive years of growth. +11.1% growth this year compared to last year. +17.6% growth since 2013. Campground Site nights Market Five (5) consecutive years of growth. +10.7% growth this year compared to last year. 69.3% growth since 2008. Growth in ONS. Quebec (+22.3%), Ontario (+18.5%), New England (+11.3%), and Mid-Atlantic (+24.2%). Source: Tourism PEI (ITS) (Occupancy) September occupancy at compliance rate of 95.5%.
Occupancy (Yearly Trends) -1.6% -0.2% +1.2% +6.4% +3.5% -0.9% -1.9% -0.8% +5.5% +2.0% -3.5% +4.2% +6.1% +8.4% +6.7% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Fixed Roof 565,381 554,416 549,849 579,882 591,644 Campsite 222,329 231,623 245,679 266,218 284,030 Total 787,710 786,039 795,528 846,100 875,674 Source: Tourism PEI (ITS) (Occupancy) September occupancy at compliance rate of 95.5%.
Significant increase in Fixed roof room nights sold. Significant increase in Campground site nights sold. +11.1% +10.7% 56,937 Room Nights 30,331 Site Nights Overnight Stays +11.0% Source: Tourism PEI (ITS) (Occupancy)
6. PEI s Key Markets
2016 vs. 2015 Occupancy by Market Canada 12.1% Significant growth in occupancy overall 11.5% Overnight Stays 11.8% Source: Tourism PEI (ITS) (Occupancy)
2016 vs. 2015 Occupancy by Market 17.6% Ontario Exceptional growth in occupancy all year 22.4% Overnight Stays 18.5% Source: Tourism PEI (ITS) (Occupancy)
ONTARIO PEI s 3 rd largest tourism market in 2015 13% of all PEI visitation 14% of PEI s total overnight visitation Approximately $97 million was generated in tourists receipts Visitors to PEI in 2015 175,000 person arrivals Overnight Pleasure Visitors 161,000 person arrivals Overnight Pleasure Visitor Parties 55,200 party arrivals Overnight Pleasure Travel Party Size Average 2.91 persons Total Nights Stayed in PEI 352,000 nights Nights Stayed at Commercial Accommodations 131,000 nights Trip Length in PEI Average 6.37 nights Estimated Total Spending in PEI $97 million Average Trip Spending Average $95 per person per night Average Trip Spending Average $1,758 per party per visit
2016 vs. 2015 Occupancy by Market 22.2% Quebec Exceptional growth in occupancy since February 22.5% Overnight Stays 22.3% Source: Tourism PEI (ITS) (Occupancy)
QUEBEC PEI s 4 th largest tourism market in 2015 10% of all PEI visitation 9% of PEI s total overnight visitation Approximately $56.4 million was generated in tourists receipts Visitors to PEI in 2015 126,000 person arrivals Overnight Pleasure Visitors 112,000 person arrivals Overnight Pleasure Visitor Parties 37,000 party arrivals Overnight Pleasure Travel Party Size Average 3.02 persons Total Nights Stayed in PEI 206,400 nights Nights Stayed at Commercial Accommodations 63,000 nights Trip Length in PEI Average 5.65 nights Estimated Total Spending in PEI $56.4 million Average Trip Spending Average $89 per person per night Average Trip Spending Average $1,524 per party per visit
2016 vs. 2015 Occupancy by Market 4.4% Quebec New Brunswick High level of Occupancy mainly in July and August. Drop in September (-3.8% in Overnight Stays) 10.4% Overnight Stays 6.1% Source: Tourism PEI (ITS) (Occupancy)
NEW BRUNSWICK PEI s 1 st largest tourism market in 2015 32% of all PEI visitation 31.5% of PEI s total overnight visitation Approximately $112 million was generated in tourists receipts Visitors to PEI in 2015 418,000 person arrivals Overnight Pleasure Visitors 373,300 person arrivals Overnight Pleasure Visitor Parties 108,400 party arrivals Overnight Pleasure Travel Party Size Average 3.44 persons Total Nights Stayed in PEI 421,600 nights Nights Stayed at Commercial Accommodations 128,000 nights Trip Length in PEI Average 4.00 nights Estimated Total Spending in PEI $112 million Average Trip Spending Average $75 per person per night Average Trip Spending Average $1,032 per party per visit
2016 vs. 2015 Occupancy by Market Nova Nova Scotia Scotia 5.9% Overnights Stays Stable in July (-1.5%) and August (+0.4%). Stronger September (+6.9% increase in Overnight Stays) 4.3% Overnight Stays 3.2% Source: Tourism PEI (ITS) (Occupancy)
NOVA SCOTIA PEI s 2 nd largest tourism market in 2015 31% of all PEI visitation 32% of PEI s total overnight visitation Approximately, $114 million was generated in tourists receipts Visitors to PEI in 2015 401,000 person arrivals Overnight Pleasure Visitors 375,000 person arrivals Overnight Pleasure Visitor Parties 124,500 party arrivals Overnight Pleasure Travel Party Size Average 3.01 persons Total Nights Stayed in PEI 466,000 nights Nights Stayed at Commercial Accommodations 154,000 nights Trip Length in PEI Average 3.93 nights Estimated Total Spending in PEI $114 million Average Trip Spending Average $77 per person per night Average Trip Spending Average $913 per party per visit
2016 vs. 2015 Occupancy by Market 16.2% USA Exceptional peak season. Highest level of Overnight Stays since 2007 19.8% Overnight Stays 16.9% Source: Tourism PEI (ITS) (Occupancy)
2016 vs. 2015 Occupancy by Market Mid Atlantic 28.5% Exceptional peak season. Highest level of Overnight Stays since 2007 4.3% Overnight Stays 24.2% Source: Tourism PEI (ITS) (Occupancy)
2016 vs. 2015 Occupancy by Market New England 8.9% Exceptional peak season. Highest level of Overnight Stays since 2007 21.2% Overnight Stays 11.3% Source: Tourism PEI (ITS) (Occupancy)
NEW ENGLAND (US REGION) PEI s 5 th largest tourism market in 2015 2.5% of all PEI visitation 2.6% of PEI s total overnight visitation Approximately, $18 million was generated in tourists receipts Visitors to PEI in 2015 32,400 person arrivals Overnight Pleasure Visitors 30,400 person arrivals Overnight Pleasure Visitor Parties 10,000 party arrivals Overnight Pleasure Travel Party Size Average 3.04 persons Total Nights Stayed in PEI 63,000 nights Nights Stayed at Commercial Accommodations 22,000 nights Trip Length in PEI Average 6.44 nights Estimated Total Spending in PEI Residents $18 million Average Trip Spending Average $89 per person per night Average Trip Spending Average $1,746 per party per visit
2016 vs. 2015 Occupancy by Market Other Countries 18.1% Decline in International Overnight Stays, even though January (+74.8%), February (+113.3%) and June (+16.9%) were Strong 46.9% Overnight Stays 21.9% Source: Tourism PEI (ITS) (Occupancy)
OVERSEAS 1.4% of all PEI visitation 1.3% of PEI s total overnight visitation Approximately $10.3 million was generated in tourists receipts Visitors to PEI in 2015 18,400 person arrivals Overnight Pleasure Visitors 15,800 person arrivals Overnight Pleasure Visitor Parties 6,800 party arrivals Overnight Pleasure Travel Party Size Average 2.33 persons Total Nights Stayed in PEI 45,200 nights Nights Stayed at Commercial Accommodations 44,300 nights Trip Length in PEI Average 5.53 nights Estimated Total Spending in PEI $10.3 million Average Trip Spending Average $118 per person per night Average Trip Spending Average $1,520 per party per visit
Average Spending per Person per Night Geographical Market Yield $120 $110 $100 $90 $80 $70 $60 Overnight Pleasure Travel Market by Origin NS NL QC NB Overseas Rest of Canada Rest ON of US New England 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 Average Number of Nights Stayed in PEI
7. 2015 Results & 2016 Estimates
2010 2016 Trend in Travel Expenditures +6.0% +5.1% +1.0% +5.4% +0.8% -0.3% +0.3% $379M $382M $380M $382M $401M $406M $430M 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016f Note: Include tourism-related spending from both non-residents and residents Source: Total expenditure: Centre for Tourism Research at TIAPEI Nov 8, 2016
2010 2016 Trend in Visitation +6.9% +1.4% -5.4% -0.2% +5.7% +2.7% +5.9% 1.30M 1.23M 1.23M 1.30M 1.33M 1.41M 1.51M 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016f Note: Include both same-day and overnight non-resident visitation Source: Total visitation: Centre for Tourism Research at TIAPEI Nov 8, 2016
Comments & Questions?