De Reuzen en de Consequenties. Dirk Visser. Dynamar B.V.

De Reuzen en de Consequenties Dirk Visser Senior Shipping Consultant Managing Editor DynaLiners Dynamar B.V. 1

Agenda De Reuzen en de Consequenties Grotere schepen, ULCS, wrom? ULCS varend, besteld, optie, misschien, gewenst, gerucht ULCS per reder, per haven, per dienst ULCS, impact, alternatieven 2

Introduction @ @ @ @ DYNAMAR B.V. Since 1981 Credit Risk Assessment Credit Reports, Constant Monitoring, Executive Reports Marine Intelligence Marine Investigation, Vessel Tracking Consultancy Liner, Container, Bulk, Ports & Terminals Shipping Publications DynaLiners, MMM, Container Trade Studies, Special Reports 3

ULCS WAAROM? Kosten beheersen en drukken Jaloezie De concurrent z n verlies niet gunnen! 4

Bunkers Bunker prices Ø Growth 2010 2000 Bunker pri ces 8% 453 140 10-year Rotterdam Cst 380 prices (USD/mt) Year Average Increase Lowest Highest 2010 453 27% 402 497 2009 356-25% 167 493 2008 474 36% 177 715 2007 348 19% 306 505 2006 292 25% 254 338 2005 234 51% 145 292 2004 155 2% 132 179 2003 152 14% 124 197 2002 133 15% 101 167 2001 116-17% 97 138 2000 140 49% 106 171 5

ULCS sailing & on order Delivery '06/'10 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Total ULCS Share ships Share TEU >10,000 22 5 8 8 9 2 54 19% 15% >11,000 10 6 - - - - 16 6% 5% >12,000 0 6 1 15 3-25 9% 9% >13,000 19 24 36 22 11-112 40% 41% >14,000 11 10 5 6 4-36 13% 14% >15,000 8 - - - - - 8 3% 3% >16,000 0-3 1 2-6 2% 3% >18,000 0 - - 6 9 5 20 7% 10% Ships 70 51 53 58 38 7 277 100% 100% TEU 875,600 648,700 687,400 767,800 524,000 110,000 3,613,400 100% 100% 6

ULCS options What Carrier/NOOwner Ships Ø TEU TEU Option Maersk Line 10 18,000 180,000 Option China Shipping 4 10,000 40,000 Option 1 Zodiac 2 16,000 32,000 Option 2 Zodiac 4 16,000 64,000 Intention Zodiac 4 13,000 52,000 Intention Seaspan 10 14,000 140,000 Intention Seaspan 18 18,000 324,000 Intention Peter Döhle 8 10,000 80,000 Desire Yang Ming 10 16,000 160,000 Rumour Zodiac 4 16,000 64,000 All Total 74 15,400 1,136,000 7

ULCS sailing & on order Size categories ULCS Ø TEU Total TEU 10,000-10,999 TEU 54 10,200 549,500 11,000-11,999 TEU 16 11,400 183,100 12,000-12,999 TEU 25 12,600 316,100 13,000-13,999 TEU 112 13,200 1,479,800 14,000-14,999 TEU 36 14,000 504,600 15,000-15,999 TEU 8 15,600 124,400 16,000-16,999 TEU 6 16,000 96,000 18,000-18,999 TEU 20 18,000 360,000 All categories 277 13,000 3,613,400 8

ULCS sailing & on order Size categories ULCS Ø TEU Total TEU 10,000-10,999 TEU 54 10,200 549,500 11,000-11,999 TEU 16 11,400 183,100 12,000-12,999 TEU 25 12,600 316,100 13,000-13,999 TEU 112 13,200 1,479,800 14,000-14,999 TEU 36 14,000 504,600 15,000-15,999 TEU 8 15,600 124,400 16,000-16,999 TEU 6 16,000 96,000 18,000-18,999 TEU 20 18,000 360,000 All categories 277 13,000 3,613,400 Category ULCS Share ULCS Ø TEU TEU Share TEU <13,000 34% 95 11,000 29% 1,049,000 >13,000 66% 182 14,100 71% 2,565,000 All 100% 277 13,000 100% 3,613,000 9

ULCS options Ships 26 140 46 Ships 33 67 28 28 Draught 15.00 to 15.02 meters 15.50 to 15.60 meters 16.00 meters LOA 347.0 to 349.0 meters 363.0 to 365.8 meters 366.1 to 368.0 meters 397.0 to 400.0 metres Ships Breadth Wide 6 42.8 meters 17 boxes 50 45.2 to 45.6 meters 18 boxes 99 48.2 to 48.4 meters 19 boxes 49 51.0 to 51.3 meters 20 boxes 11 56.2 to 56.4 meters 22 boxes 20 59.0 meters 23/24 box 10

ULCS carriers Rank Rank Carrier ULCS Ø TEU TEU 7 5 APL 15 11,600 174,500 10 10 China Shipping 16 12,000 192,600 3 3 CMA CGM 29 12,800 370,600 4 4 Coscon 24 12,200 291,900 6 15 Evergreen (sub from ZIM) 2 10,100 20,100 9 7 Hanjin 19 11,500 218,200 5 8 Hapag-Lloyd 10 13,100 131,000 18 13 Hyundai 10 13,100 131,000 1 2 Maersk Line 47 15,200 714,600 11 12 MOL (sub from APL) 5 14,000 70,000 2 1 MSC 56 13,300 746,200 13 14 NYK (sub from OOCL) 4 13,200 52,800 12 11 OOCL 6 13,200 79,200 20 9 UASC 9 13,300 119,700 16 6 ZIM 15 11,600 173,300 - - Non operating owners 10 12,800 127,800 Grand total ULCS 277 13,000 3,613,400 11

ULCS carriers Carrier Size categories Ships Ø TEU Total TEU APL Total 15 11,600 174,500 - size category 10,000-10,999 TEU 10 10,400 104,500 - size category 14,000-14,999 TEU 5 14,000 70,000 China Shipping Total 16 12,000 192,600 - size category 10,000-10,999 TEU 8 10,000 80,000 - size category 14,000-14,999 TEU 8 14,100 112,600 CMA CGM Total 29 12,800 370,600 - size categories 10,000-10,999 TEU 4 11,000 43,800 11,000-11,999 TEU 12 11,400 136,500 12,000-12,999 TEU 2 12,600 25,100 13,000-13,999 TEU 5 13,800 69,200 16,000-16,999 TEU 6 16,000 96,000 Coscon Total 24 12,200 291,900 - size categories 10,000-10,999 TEU 8 10,000 80,300 13,000-13,999 TEU 16 13,200 211,500 Evergreen Line (ex ZIM) Total 2 10,100 20,100 - size category 10,000-10,999 TEU 2 10,100 20,100 Hanjin Total 19 11,500 218,200 - size categories 10,000-10,999 TEU 10 10,000 100,300 13,000-13,999 TEU 9 13,100 117,800 Hapag-Lloyd Total 10 13,100 131,000 - size category 13,000-13,999 TEU 10 13,100 131,000 Hyundai Total 10 13,100 131,000 - size category 13,000-13,999 TEU 10 13,100 131,000 12

ULCS carriers Carrier Size categories Ships Ø TEU Total TEU Maersk Line Total 47 15,200 714,600 - size categories 10,000-10,999 TEU 6 10,000 60,000 13,000-13,999 TEU 13 13,100 170,200 15,000-15,999 TEU 8 15,600 124,400 18,000-18,999 TEU 20 18,000 180,000 MOL Total 8 14,100 112,600 - size category 14,000-14,999 TEU 5 14,000 70,000 MSC Total 56 13,300 746,200 - size categories 11,000-11,999 TEU 4 11,700 46,600 12,000-12,999 TEU 4 12,600 50,200 13,000-13,999 TEU 30 13,200 397,400 14,000-14,999 TEU 18 14,000 252,000 NYK (ex OOCL) Total 4 13,200 52,800 - size category 13,000-13,999 TEU 4 13,200 52,800 OOCL Total 6 13,200 79,200 - size category 13,000-13,999 TEU 6 13,200 79,200 UASC Total 9 13,300 119,700 - size category 13,000-13,999 TEU 9 13,300 119,700 ZIM Total 15 11,600 173,300 - size categories 10,000-10,999 TEU 6 10,100 60,400 12,000-12,999 TEU 9 12,600 113,000 NOO Peter Döhle Schiffahrts Total 4 12,600 50,200 - size category 12,000-12,999 TEU 4 12,600 50,200 NOO ZODIAC Total 6 12,900 77,600 - size category 12,930-13,000 TEU 6 12,900 77,600 13

ULCS ports All ports Total calls First port Last port Double Port Stay Aarhus 1 0 0 0 19 Antwerp 12 1 6 1 41 Bremerhaven 9 2 1 0 22 Dunkirk 2 0 1 0 20 Felixstowe 13 4 4 0 29 Gdansk 1 0 0 0 70 Gothenburg 1 0 0 0 29 Hamburg 23 4 1 0 37 Le Havre 10 5 3 0 32 Rotterdam 27 9 6 2 30 Sines 1 1 0 0 21 Southampton 9 4 3 1 25 Thamesport 2 0 2 0 - Zeebrugge 6 0 3 1 27 Totals 117 30 30 5 31 Hours 14

ULCS ports Chinese Ports Region Other Far East Ports Country Dalian China, North Hong Kong Hong Kong Qingdao China, North Hakata Japan Tianjin China, North Port Kelang Malaysia Ningbo China, East Port Tanjung Pelepas Malaysia Shanghai China, East Singapore Singapore Guangzhou (Nansha) China, South Busan South Korea Shenzhen (Chiwan) China, South Kwangyang South Korea Shenzhen (Shekou) China, South Saigon (Cai Mep) Vietnam Shenzhen (Yantian) China, South Xiamen China, South 15

North Europe-Far East Trade North Europe/Mediterranean-Far East Trade Ø Growth 2010 2000 Fa r Ea s t to Europe/Med 9.8% 13,539,000 5,323,000 Europe/Med to Fa r Ea s t 4.8% 5,569,000 3,494,000 Grand Total 8.0% 19,108,000 8,817,000 Imba l a nce TEU 7,970,000 1,829,000 Imbalance % 59% 34% Europe-Far East Highest Year Lowest Year 10-year growth Europe 21% 2003-15% 2009 10-year growth to FE 14% 2004-2% 2008 10-year growth total 16% 2005-9% 2009 16

Tegen medio 2015 ULCS Services 23 ULCS diensten per week Call-size: 6,000 tot 9,000 TEU 17

Alternative Routes Panama kanl Maximum toegestane scheeps afmetingen (meters) Lengte Breedte Diepgang Huidige sluizen 294.3 32.3 12.0 Nieuwe sluizen 366.0 49.0 15.2 18

Panama Canal 19

In Conclusion Panama Canal Mainline: Europe-US EC-Panama-Far East Relay from Panama: Caribbean, Amazone, Central/South Am. WC, US WC 20

Stellingen Stellingen ULCS opgeleverd? Overeenkomstige capaciteit slopen! Reder failliet? Sink his ships! Schip = emotie: Grey the ships!! 21

De Reuzen en de Consequenties Dank U Dirk Visser Senior Shipping Consultant Managing Editor DynaLiners Dynamar B.V. 22