Supply Vessels in West Africa Piracy, politics and oil production Emma Swift & David Hunter, Marine Team July 19, 211 1
Contents General introduction to West Africa OSV market Current fleet statistics Comparison between Nigeria and Angola Impact of piracy Political issues Current fleet statistics New markets in West Africa Ghana Market forecast 2
West African OSV market Oil discovered in 196s both onshore and offshore Traditionally smaller vessels used in projects close to shore and in Niger Delta New deepwater projects and emerging areas mean the profile of the fleet is changing Affected badly by unstable political regimes, terrorism and piracy 3
Locations of Nigeria, Angola and Ghana 4
West Africa OSV fleet Demand, Supply & Utilisation January 21 - June 211 4 36 32 28 1 9 8 7 Number of vessels 24 2 16 12 Demand Supply Utilisation 6 5 4 3 Utilisation % 8 2 4 1 5
West Africa AHTS fleet Demand, Supply & Utilisation January 21 - June 211 25 1 9 2 8 7 Number of vessels 15 1 Demand Supply Utilisation 6 5 4 3 Utilisation % 5 2 1 6
West Africa PSV fleet Demand Supply & Utilisation January 21 - June 211 15 1 135 9 12 8 15 7 Number of vessels 9 75 6 45 Demand Supply Utilisation 6 5 4 3 Utilisation % 3 2 15 1 7
Changing fleet age profile 1 st July 211 1 st July 21 18 45 16 4 14 35 12 3 1 25 8 2 6 15 4 1 2 5-5 years 6-1 years 11-15 years 16-2 years 21-25 years 26+ years -5 years 6-1 years 11-15 years 16-2 years 21-25 years 26+ years 8
West Africa fleet by country July 1 st 211 364 vessels South Africa 4% Cameroon 4% Cote d'ivoire 5% Gabon 4% Equatorial Guinea 3% Others, 4 2% Nigeria 41% Ghana 6% Congo 7% Angola 24% 9
Fleet split by manager July 1 st 211 364 vessels Swire Pacific 5% Sea Trucks 3% Seacor 2% Edison Chouest 2% Maersk Supply Service Lamnalco 2% 2% Walvis 2% Others, 57 29% Sanko Line 8% Bourbon Offshore 18% Tidewater 27% 1
Demand split by client July 1 st 211 316 vessels Others, 28 25% Total 22% Afren Energy 3% Addax 3% Saipem 3% Shell 3% Eni 4% BP 4% Chevron 14% ExxonMobil 19% 11
Net movements in previous 12 months North America 7 NW Europe & Med 9 Asia-Pacific 21 Latin America 1 12
Production comparison Angola and Nigeria 3 25 Angola Nigeria 2 1, bbls/p/d 15 1 5 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 211 13
Piracy problems in West Africa Few vessels hijacked, unlike Somalia and Gulf of Aden Kidnappings and robberies much more common Attacks carried out by a mixture of political militants and petty criminals Incidents in West Africa thought to be under-reported by International Maritime Bureau Piracy Reporting Centre 14
Piracy incidents in West Africa 21 Nigeria 5% Cameroon 13% Cote d'ivoire 1% Guinea 16% Dem. Rep. of Congo 8% Congo 3% Source: International Maritime Bureau 15
Piracy incidents in West Africa 26-21 5 45 4 35 Number of incidents 3 25 2 15 1 5 26 27 28 29 21 Angola Benin Cameroon Congo Dem. Rep. of Congo Equatorial Guinea Ghana Guinea Guinea Bissau Cote d'ivoire Mauritania Nigeria Source: International Maritime Bureau 16
Production and piracy in Nigeria 1, bbls/p/d 2,5 2,4 2,3 2,2 2,1 2, 1,9 1,8 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 26 27 28 29 21 Production Piracy attacks Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 211 & International Maritime Bureau Numbeer of incidents 17
OSVs attacked in West Africa Pacific Supplier robbery, 21 Bourbon Alexandre three crew kidnapped, 21 Ajax robbery, 28 18
Opex comparison Vessel Type Indicative OPEX in USD 2Q 211 NW Europe West Africa Low High Low High PSVs< 2, dwt 5,5 6,5 8,75 1, PSVs 2,-2,999 dwt 5,5 6,75 9, 1,75 PSVs 3,-3,999 dwt 5,5 7, 9, 11, PSVs 4, dwt + 7, 9, 9,5 13, AHTS 6,-9,999 bhp 5, 6,5 8,5 12,25 AHTS 1,-14,999 bhp 6,5 8, 1,75 13,5 AHTS 15,-17,999 bhp 8,5 1,5 11,25 14, AHTS 18,-22,999 bhp 11,5 13, 13,5 17,5 AHTS 23, bhp + 14, 16, 14,5 18,25 19
Political and social issues Concern among residents of Niger Delta about poverty and pollution led to creation of militant groups like MEND Amnesty in 29 only partially successful and oil industry remains a target on and offshore New legislation aims to tackle the perceived unfairness in the Nigerian oil and gas industry Local Content Act became law in 21, and Petroleum Industry Bill is currently going through parliament 2
Local Content Act 21 Oil companies working within Nigeria have to use Nigerian banks along with local legal and insurance companies Operators have to submit a local content plan as part of any bid in Nigerian waters Local companies providing goods and services should be used, where possible Training and education possibilities must be offered to local people Local Content Act is already having an impact on the Nigerian OSV fleet 21
No. of managers operating in Nigeria and Angola 5 45 4 35 Angola Nigeria Number of managers 3 25 2 15 1 5 21 26 29 21 211 22
OSV demand, supply & utilisation in Nigeria January 21 - June 211 16 1 14 9 12 8 7 Number of vessels 1 8 6 4 Demand Supply Utilisation 6 5 4 3 2 Utilisation % 2 1 23
OSV demand, supply & utilisation in Angola January 21 - June 211 1 1 9 9 8 8 7 7 Number of vessels 6 5 4 3 Demand Supply Utilisation 6 5 4 3 Utilisation % 2 2 1 1 24
Vessel utilisation in West Africa 1 9 8 7 6 Utilisation % 5 4 3 2 1 All AHTS PSV Nigeria Angola 25
Vessel activity July 211 comparison Nigeria vessel activity Angola vessel activity Spot market 41% Inshore for repairs/refit etc. 2% En route 1% Idle / laid up 7% Spot market 8% En route 1% Idle / laid up 2% Operating 49% Operating 89% 26
First oil in Ghana 27
Getting it right? Ghana is introducing its own legislation governing the oil industry, to try to avoid the oil curse The aim is for local companies to control activities in 9% of the upstream oil and gas industry by 22 Massive developments and improvements needed to Ghanaian infrastructure Tullow Ghana target of 9% local workforce at the end of three years unlikely to be met 28
OSV demand, supply & utilisation in Ghana January 28 - June 211 25 1 9 2 8 7 Number of vessels 15 1 Demand Supply Utilisation 6 5 4 Utilisation % 3 5 2 1 29
Forecast rig demand in West Africa 6 5 4 Number of rigs 3 2 1 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 Deepwater rigs Floater rigs Jackup rigs All rigs 3
Forecast PSV demand in West Africa 12 1 8 Number of vessels 6 4 2 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 PSV 4,+ dwt PSV 3,-3,999 dwt PSV 2,-2,999 dwt PSV <2, dwt 31
Forecast AHTS 6,+ bhp demand in West Africa 1 9 8 7 6 Number of vessels 5 4 3 2 1 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 AHTS 23, + bhp AHTS 18,-22,999 bhp AHTS 15,-17,999 bhp AHTS 1,-14,999 bhp AHTS 6,-9,999 bhp 32