SPECIAL AIRCRAFT REPORT -AIRBUS A380-800- NOVEMBER 2014
AIRCRAFT DATA AIRBUS A380-800 (Fleet Breakdown) 2 AIRBUS A380-800 (Engine Breakdown) 171 147 In Service On Order 32% 68% EA RR Stored AIRBUS A380-800 Region Breakdown 10 5 0 AFRICA ASIA PACIFIC EUROPE LATIN AMERICA MIDDLE EAST NORTH AMERICA
AIRCRAFT MARKET SUMMARY The Current Market The current market demand for the Airbus A380-800 has remained stable over the last 12 months due to the outstanding performance of the aircraft. Today, CV knows of no aircraft listed as available for sale and/or lease. Out of 147 aircraft built, 2 aircraft are currently in storage, which is normal for such a young aircraft. It is CV s opinion that these percentages are considered average for a twin-aisle aircraft type that has been in production for 7 years. Current values in today s market have remained stable for both new and used aircraft. As there have not been any used aircraft to hit the market place, it is difficult to ascertain how the current market environment may affect values. However, we do not expect any used aircraft to become available for quite some time as many of these have been placed on long-term leases and all current operators seem to be quite satisfied with the performance of the aircraft. We see values and lease rates for this aircraft remaining stable over the next 12 months. In looking at the leasing market, this aircraft is now leasing between US$1,050,000 and over US$1,900,000, depending on the vintage. As with the values for this aircraft, we expect lease rates to remain stable going forward as well.
VALUE DEFINITIONS Current Market Value (CMV): The Current Market Value (CMV) of an aircraft is the appraiser s opinion of the most likely trading price that may be generated for an aircraft under the market circumstances that are perceived to exist at the time in question, according to the International Society of Transport Aircraft Trading (ISTAT). The current market value assumes that the aircraft is valued for its highest and best use, that the parties to the hypothetical sales transaction are willing, able, prudent and knowledgeable, and under no unusual pressure for a prompt sale, and that the transaction would be negotiated in an open and unrestricted market on an arm s length basis, for cash equivalent consideration, and given an adequate amount of time for effective market exposure to perspective buyers. Base Value (BV): Base value is the appraiser s opinion of the underlying economic value of an aircraft in an open, unrestricted, stable market environment with a reasonable balance of supply and demand, and assumes full consideration of its highest and best use. An aircraft s base value is founded in the historical trend of values and in the projection of future value trends and presumes an arm s length, cash transaction between willing, able and knowledge parties acting prudently, with an absence of duress and with a reasonable period of time available for marketing.
METHODOLOGY Current Market Value (CMV): To determine current market values of aircraft, CV uses, as our main source of data, any and all known reported market values. These values are extracted from numerous aviation industry sources and from CV s proprietary and confidential transaction database. As a secondary consideration, CV also analyses and gathers data on factors that influence the market value of an aircraft, such as its age, condition, configuration, fleet composition of such aircraft, similar aircraft available to the market, number of aircraft stored, operating economics, new aircraft prices, and the current state of the environment for the aviation industry. This information is then entered into CV s own proprietary transaction database and analyzed to determine a current market value based on a single sale transaction and using the assumptions as outlined in each aircraft valuation report at the time specified on the report. Base Value (BV): To determine its Base and Future values, CV first analyses any and all transaction information within its own proprietary database. This analysis allows CV to then establish the new price of an aircraft at a specific point in time. Historical data is then analyzed to determine the average depreciation rates of aircraft based on various conditions. This analysis is also broken down by aircraft type, mission, and in or out of production status. The result of these analyses is a depreciation factor which can then be applied to the various aircraft valuation models which CV utilizes for its valuation services and publications. Based on each valuation model, CV then creates base value curves for each aircraft which provide the base and future values for the aircraft which are reflected in the Turbine Aircraft Guide. Lease Rentals: The Lease Rentals provided in each valuation report represent CV s opinion of aircraft lease rates in today s operating lease environment. These lease rates are derived from CV s own proprietary transactions database which contains a wide range of lease transactions received from numerous sources within the industry. This data is then compiled to produce the lease rentals provided in each aircraft valuation report.
Maintenance Cost Data: The maintenance cost data provided in the Turbine Aircraft Guide is information that has been collected from various industry sources such as maintenance publications, conferences, MRO facilities, manufacturers, and financial institutions. The data represents the current estimated maintenance costs for such aircraft based on the assumptions and conditions provided. Statement of Independence: The aircraft valuation reports provided in the Turbine Aircraft Guide represent the opinion of Collateral Verifications and are intended to be advisory in nature. Therefore, CV assumes no responsibility or legal liability for actions taken or not taken by the purchaser of the Turbine Aircraft Guide or any other party with regard to the data provided in each report. By accepting these reports, the purchaser agrees that CV shall bear no responsibility or legal liability regarding these reports. CV also states that these valuation reports have been independently prepared and fairly represents the aircraft and CV s opinion of its values.
AirbusA380800(AsofSeptember2014InUSDollars) YOB CMV CBV 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 startyears 2007 126.97 126.97 120.45 114.26 108.38 102.81 97.53 92.52 87.76 83.25 73.03 64.06 56.19 49.29 43.24 37.93 33.27 29.19 25.60 22.46 19.70 17.28 2008 136.80 136.80 129.77 123.10 116.77 110.77 105.07 99.67 94.55 89.69 85.08 74.63 65.47 57.43 50.38 44.19 38.76 34.00 29.83 26.16 22.95 20.13 2009 145.89 145.89 138.39 131.28 124.53 118.13 112.06 106.30 100.83 95.65 90.73 86.07 75.50 66.23 58.10 50.96 44.70 39.21 34.40 30.17 26.47 23.22 2010 163.31 163.31 154.91 146.95 139.40 132.23 125.43 118.99 112.87 107.07 101.57 96.35 91.39 80.17 70.33 61.69 54.11 47.47 41.64 36.53 32.04 28.11 2011 180.30 180.30 171.03 162.24 153.90 145.99 138.49 131.37 124.62 118.21 112.13 106.37 100.90 95.72 83.96 73.65 64.61 56.67 49.71 43.61 38.25 33.56 2012 188.32 188.32 178.64 169.46 160.75 152.49 144.65 137.21 130.16 123.47 117.12 111.10 105.39 99.98 94.84 83.19 72.98 64.01 56.15 49.26 43.21 37.90 2013 202.37 202.37 191.97 182.10 172.74 163.86 155.44 147.45 139.87 132.68 125.86 119.39 113.26 107.43 101.91 96.67 84.80 74.39 65.25 57.24 50.21 44.05 2014 241.20 241.20 228.81 217.05 205.89 195.31 185.27 175.75 166.71 158.14 150.01 142.30 134.99 128.05 121.47 115.23 109.30 95.88 84.11 73.78 64.72 56.77 1.ThevaluesprovidedareinmillionsofU.S.dollarsand,exceptfornewaircraft,assumethattheaircraftandallofitsmajorcomponents,willbeina"halftime"conditionperthecurrentmaintenance programandoverhaulintervalsfortherespectivecomponents. 2.Theaircraftcurrentlyholdorarecapableofreceivingacertificateofairworthinessfromanindustryrecognizedregulatoryauthority 3.Allmandatoryairworthinessdirectivesareuptodateandhavebeencompliedwith 4.ThevaluesarebasedonahighMTOWandhighenginethrustaircraft. 5.Theaircraftareassumedtohavenodamagehistoryandbeingoodcondition. 6.Thefuturevaluesareinflatedatarateof2%peryear. AirframeCcheck AirframeData LandingGear Ev120months $1,363,000 18Months AirbusA380800MaintenanceCost&LeaseRentalData Inspection Interval Cost 2009 $1,300,000 $475,000 2010 $1,425,000 Airframe6Yr.check 72Months $4,316,000 2011 $1,550,000 RRTrent900EngineData 2012 $1,675,000 MaintenanceItem FHInterval FCInterval TotalCost 2013 $1,800,000 ShopVisitCost 26,700 3,338 $5,500,000 2014 $1,950,000 Trent900LifeLimitedParts N/A 15,000 $6,869,000 GP7270EngineData MaintenanceItem FHInterval FCInterval TotalCost ShopVisitCost 24,000 3,000 $5,000,000 GP7000LifeLimitedParts N/A 15,000 $6,490,000 Notes:1.HourtoCycleRatiois8:1withanannualutilizationof5,000hours. Notes&Assumptions: 2.Averagederateis10% 1.LeaseRentalsarequotedonamonthlybasis 3.DatasourcesincludeAirlines,Lessors,MROFacilities,andManufacturers. 2.TheabovevaluesareexpressedinUSDollars CopyrightCollateralVerifications2014 LeaseRentalData Component Interval O/HCost YOB LeaseRate YOB LeaseRate 2007 $1,050,000 2008 $1,175,000