www. forwardkeys. com International Arrivals in 2017 Jan-Jul Year to Date Forward looking 2017 Aug-Dec Special Focus on East n Community (EAC) August 2017 Know tomorrow s travellers
2017YTD: the Americas, Middle East and Asia Pacific arrivals grew robustly International arrivals in have continued the positive performance of the second half of 2016 into 2017, welcoming an increase of 14.0% in 2017 year to date. Longer haul arrivals from the Americas and Asia Pacific, and the Middle East performed better than intra- international arrivals and European arrivals into ; the latter two flows grew below the overall international growth. Int l arrivals in by origin regions, January to July 2017 Total International Arrivals in 2017 Year to date The Americas (10%; +17.6%) (26%; +12.6%) Europe (46%; +13.2%) Middle East (9%; +14.0%) Asia Pacific (8%; +18.4%) (+14.0%) except, Egypt is included in. Length of stay at the destination is 1 to 21 nights. January 1 st to July 31 st 2017 vs. same period previous year 2
2017YTD: Chinese tourists helped along with tourism recovery in 3 n destinations have enjoyed a one-year-long recovery after the health and security concerns in 2014 and 2015 gradually faded: Egypt and Tunisia are the destinations leading the recovery. Nigeria is the only underperforming one among Top 10, because its intra-n arrivals declined seriously along with its intra-n capacity decline. Morocco and Tunisia benefited from their visa exemptions for Chinese travellers, receiving +450% and +250%, respectively, in Chinese arrivals 2017 year to date. Int l arrivals in, Top 10 destination countries, January to July 2017 11.7% %YoY variation international arrivals in each destination 2017 year to date 24.8% 20.5% 3.6% 33.5% 13.2% 6.5% 12.1% 10.0% -0.8% Others 26% Nigeria 2% Ethiopia 3% Tanzania 4% Algeria 5% Kenya 6% % Share international arrivals in 2017 year to date Tunisia 6% South 18% Egypt 13% Morocco 11% Mauritius 6% (+14.0%) Total International Arrivals in 2017 Year to date except, Egypt is included in. Length of stay at the destination is 1 to 21 nights. January 1 st to July 31 st 2017 vs. same period previous year
Forward looking: Middle East and Asia Pacific are not as strong as YTD Forward bookings for for the rest of 2017 are +16.8% ahead of last year, thanks to the extra early bookings from the Americas and Europe. Asia Pacific and Middle East are lagging comparing the on-thebook variations to the 2017 year-to-date variations: Asia Pacific outlook is affected by a sharp decrease in early bookings of Chinese groups to Mauritius, while Middle East has negative outlook not only for, but for worldwide destinations in general, due to its ongoing regional economic and geological crisis. Int l arrivals in on the book by origin regions, August to December 2017 Total International Arrivals in On the book Europe (62%; +17.5%) (+16.8%) The Americas (13%; +26.6%) (14%; +11.0%) Middle East (4%; +8.2%) Asia Pacific (8%; +11.5%) except, Egypt is included in. Length of stay at the destination is 1 to 21 nights. August 1 st to December 31 st 2017 as of July 31 st 2017 vs. same period previous year 4
2017 Aug-Dec capacity: int l capacity grows faster for 7 out of Top 10 airports Among the Top 10 n airports, ranked by total scheduled capacity for August to December 2017, 8 airports are welcoming growth for both domestic and international capacity; Nairobi is the only airport seeing bigger growth for domestic capacity than that of international capacity. Lagos is the only airport seeing declines in both domestic and international capacity, mainly because Arik Air is cutting 53% of its seats for the rest of 2017. Scheduled capacity to Top 10 airports in, August to December 2017 Scheduled Capacity %Var. of domestic capacity %Var. of int'l capacity Top 10 airports in Total scheduled seats for the airport Aug to Dec 2017 (%Share of different categories of seats for the airport) 1% 1% Johannesburg 49% 24% 27% 1% 3% Cairo 10% 82% 8% 9% 9% Addis Ababa 12% 40% 47% 1% 7% Casablanca 12% 65% 23% 1% 19% Cape Town 77% 17% 22% 8% Nairobi 18% 31% 51% 5 2% 3% 14% 18% 5% -26% -16% -9% Algiers Tunis Durban Lagos 25% 66% 10% 71% 26% domestic seats 95% long-haul int'l seats 46% 30% 24% intra- int'l seats except, Egypt is included in. August 1 st to December 31 st 2017 vs. same period previous year
Focus: East n Community (EAC) Important international airports in EAC: Kenya: Nairobi Jomo Kenyatta Uganda: Entebbe Rwanda: Kigali Burundi: Bujumbura Tanzania: Dar es Salaam, Kilimanjaro 6
2017YTD: EAC attracting intra-n and Middle East travellers more EAC destinations received a robust growth of 14.3% for 2017 year to date. Comparing to the n performance per origin continent, EAC destinations were more appreciated by intra-n travellers while welcoming a better growth in Middle East arrivals. EAC Int l arrivals in EAC by origin regions, January to July 2017 Total International Arrivals in EAC The Americas (14%; +12.1%) (34%; +14.9%) Europe (38%; +16.1%) Middle East (4%; +17.0%) Asia Pacific (10%;+7.6%) (+14.3%) except, Egypt is included in. Length of stay at the destination is 1 to 21 nights. January 1 st to July 31 st 2017 vs. same period previous year 7
Forward looking: weak outlook for Middle East to EAC and Asia Pacific to Kenya Forward looking international arrivals in EAC are 16.4% ahead of last year. Germany, France, and Italy in Europe, the U.S.A. and Canada in the Americas, and South and Nigeria, the two biggest markets in but out of EAC, all see double-digit growth from last year s booking situation. While all EAC destinations have a weak outlook with Middle East markets, only Kenya has a weak outlook with Asia Pacific: a lack of bookings from India and Japan is not compensated by the increasing bookings from China. Int l arrivals in EAC on the book by origin regions, August to December 2017 Europe (63%; +22.9%) (+16.4%) EAC Total International Arrivals in EAC On the book The Americas (15%; +15.5%) (12%; +7.6%) Middle East (2%; -6.0%) Asia Pacific (9%; -3.8%) except, Egypt is included in. Length of stay at the destination is 1 to 21 nights. August 1 st to December 31 st 2017 as of July 31 st 2017 vs. same period previous year 8
2017 Aug-Dec capacity: EAC is welcoming 6 new routes There are 6 new routes scheduled for the rest of 2017 for EAC: Kigali is welcoming one route to reach both London and Brussels and one route to connect Mumbai, both operated by RwandAir; Kilmanjaro will have 3 weekly flights from Dubai by Flydubai starting end of October; Dar Es Salaam has one more weekly flight to Dubai (DWC airport) by Inter Iles Air while Nairobi is linked to Muscat with 4 weekly flights by Oman Air starting August 2017; Nairobi also has a new route from Yeman. Dar Es Salaam lost the flights to Muscat since January 2017, causing the significant overall decrease of 12% in long-haul international capacity. Scheduled capacity to EAC main airports, August to December 2017 Scheduled Capacity EAC [%Var. of Capacity] Nairobi - Jomo Kenyatta - long-haul int'l intra- int'l 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 13% 5% Nairobi Kigali 58% 4% Kigali Entebbe 0% -6% Entebbe Dar Es Salaam -12% Dar -6% Es Salaam Kilimanjaro 31% Kilimanjaro 4% Bujumbura 47% 29% Bujumbura long-haul int'l seats intra- int'l seats except, Egypt is included in. August 1 st to December 31 st 2017 vs. same period previous year 9
Methodology & Glossary This analysis is based on Air Reservation Data property of ForwardKeys as of August 3 rd 2017. Database contains reservations handled by more than 200 000 online and offline travel agencies worldwide DESTINATION including Egypt; Eastern n countries including : Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda. MARKET Total International. PERIOD Arrivals: January 1 st to July 31 st 2017 vs. 2016 Arrivals On The Book: August 1 st to December 31 st 2017 as of July 31 st 2017 vs. same period previous year. Capacity: August 1 st to December 31 st 2017 vs. 2016 Lenght of stay: arrivals staying 1 to 21 nights at the destination, therefore excluding transits, day trips or one way trips and 22 or more nights. Arrivals: refer to the number of airline passengers arriving at the destination within a specific time frame. Arrivals on the Book (Arrivals OTB): refer to the number of airline passengers arriving at the destination within a specific future time frame according to the bookings that have been issued as noted. Departures: refer to the number of airline passengers departing from any location within a specific time frame. Departures on the Book (Departures OTB): refer to the number of airline passengers arriving at the destination within a specific future time frame according to the bookings that have been issued as noted. Bookings: represent air reservations made for travel to the specific destination (i.e. UK) for any date of travel. Capacity: Schedules for commercial flights between two specific locations. Reflects the volume of passengers that can fly between one destination and another using direct flights.? 10 Forward Data SL, 2017. All rights reserved. The content and the data provided in this document are for your information and internal use only. The content is provided as is without any warranty as to accuracy, completeness, satisfactory quality or fitness for any particular purpose. It is strictly forbidden to extract, reproduce, republish or publically display any content included in this document without the prior written authorisation of Forward Data, SL. If you wish to use any of this content or similar data, please contact us on info@forwardkeys.com for more information about our services. Some icons made by Freepik from www.flaticon.com