The Saskatchewan Economic Outlook: On Solid Footing Saskatchewan Real Estate Forum Mario Lefebvre Director, Centre for Municipal Studies The Conference Board of Canada April 30, 2013 www.conferenceboard.ca
Saskatchewan Outlook 2013-14 Highlights Saskatchewan is enjoying a period of solid economic prosperity Economic growth is anchored by large-scale potash development and steady gains in energy sector But the domestic side of the economy is also strong, as the province continues to attract people, mainly new international migrants To top it all off, Saskatchewan is in an enviable fiscal position The provinces census metropolitan areas of Regina and Saskatoon are at the top of the growth leader board as well. 2 2
Labour Market: Saskatchewan (1996-2013) 580 560 Employment (000s) Unemployment Rate 8.0 7.5 540 7.0 520 6.5 500 6.0 480 5.5 460 5.0 440 4.5 420 4.0 400 3.5 3 Source: Statistics Canada. 3
Employment Growth: Saskatchewan (2005 14) 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013f 2014f 4 4
Unemployment Rate: Saskatchewan (2005 14) 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013f 2014f 5 5
Disposable Income Growth: Saskatchewan (2005 14) 20.0 18.0 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013f 2014f 6 6
Retail Sales Growth: Saskatchewan (2005 14) 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0-2.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013f 2014f 7 7
Population Growth: Saskatchewan (1988 17) 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0-0.5-1.0-1.5 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14f 16f 8 8
Interprovincial and International Migration: Saskatchewan (1998-2012) 15,000 Net Interprovincial Net International 10,000 5,000 0-5,000-10,000-15,000 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 9 Source: Statistics Canada. 9
Housing Starts: Saskatchewan (2005 14) 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013f 2014f 10 Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; CMHC. 10
Investment: Saskatchewan (percentage change, $2002) Private Non-Res Non-Energy Private Non-res Energy 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0-10 -20 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013f 2014f 11 11
Construction Output: Saskatchewan (percentage change, 2007$) 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013f 2014f 12 12
Agriculture Output: Saskatchewan (percentage change, 2007$) 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0-10.0-20.0-30.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013f 2014f 13 13
Mining Output: Saskatchewan (percentage change, 2007$) 30.0 20.0 Total Mining Non-metal Support Activities for Mining Metal Mineral Fuel 10.0 0.0-10.0 2011 2012e 2013f 2014f -20.0 14 14
Goods Output: Saskatchewan (percentage change, 2007$) 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0-2.0-4.0-6.0-8.0-10.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013f 2014f 15 15
Services Output: Saskatchewan (percentage change, 2007$) 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013f 2014f 16 16
Real GDP: Saskatchewan (percentage change, basic prices, 2007$) 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0-2.0-4.0-6.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013f 2014f 17 17
2013 Real GDP Growth (percentage change, basic prices, 2007 $) 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 NL SK AB MB BC ON Canada NB NS PEI QC 18 18
2014 Real GDP Growth (percentage change, basic prices, 2007 $) 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 AB SK BC ON NS Canada MB QC NB PEI NL 19 19
Regina and Saskatoon vs. the East (Real GDP Growth, 2013) Regina Saskatoon Toronto Halifax Hamilton Montréal Québec Ottawa-Gatineau 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 20 Source: The Conference Board of Canada. 20
Regina and Saskatoon vs. the West (Real GDP Growth, 2013) Edmonton 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 Regina Saskatoon Calgary Vancouver Winnipeg Victoria 21 Source: The Conference Board of Canada. 21
Regina and Saskatoon vs. the East (Real GDP Growth, 2014-17) Saskatoon Regina Toronto Montréal Hamilton Halifax Ottawa-Gatineau Québec 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 22 Source: The Conference Board of Canada. 22
Regina and Saskatoon vs. the West (Real GDP Growth, 2014-17) Calgary 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 Edmonton Saskatoon Regina Vancouver Winnipeg Victoria 23 Source: The Conference Board of Canada. 23
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