Broad-Based Growth: The Caribbean Experience NITA THACKER WESTERN HEMISPHERE DEPARTMENT INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Outline Caribbean: Some stylized facts Broad Based Growth: Caribbean Experience Policies for broad based growth in the Caribbean
Caribbean: stylized facts Largest group of small states Constrained by relatively small size, most are service based, economies of scale difficult to achieve Output and/or exports rely heavily on one or two industries Susceptible to natural disasters
Per capita GDP (PPP basis) in the Caribbean is highest among peers. Real per capita GDP PPP, weighted averages (Constant 25 US$) 12, 1, 8, 198 29 6, 4, 2, Asia-Pacific islands 1/ Caribbean Small islands Small islands non-caribbean Middle-income countries Sources: World Bank, World Development Indicators; IMF, World Economic Outlook; and IMF staff calculations. 1/ The average in 198 only includes Fiji, Kiribati, Maldives, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, Tonga, and Vanuatu. The average in 28 additionally included Micronesia, Fed. Sts., and Samoa.
However, there is significant variation among countries Real per capita GDP PPP (Constant 25 US$) Population (In thousands) 3, 3, 25, 2,5 2, 2, 15, 1, 5, Simple Average $12,65 1,5 1, 5 Simple Average 527 Sources: World Bank, World Development Indicators; IMF, World Economic Outlook; and IMF staff calculations. Sources: World Bank, World Development Indicators; and IMF staff calculations.
The decline is growth is driven by a decline in TFP 4 Selected Caribbean Countries 1/ 3 2 1 1971-198 1981-199 1991-2 21-27 Sources: Heston, Summers and Aten (29); and IMF staff calculations. 1/ Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Grenada, St. Kitts & Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Vincent & Grenadines, the Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Guyana, Jamaica, and Suriname.
St. Kitts and Nevis Jamaica Lebanon Barbados Grenada Seychelles Antigua and Barbuda Belize Egypt St. Lucia St. Vincent and Grens. Dominica Brazil Guyana Jordan Poland Uruguay Malaysia Mauritius Morocco Argentina Philippines Bahamas, The Mexico Turkey Panama Tunisia Latvia Costa Rica High public sector debt has also been a drag on growth 2 16 Public Sector Debt in Selected Emerging Markets / Developing Countries, end 21 (In percent of GDP) 12 8 4 average 1/ Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook; and Fund staff calculations. 1/ Selected emerging and developing economies.
Broad based growth: What does this mean? More diversified production base and exports More diversified sources of external demand Improving the standard of living for everyone
Services has replaced agriculture as a major source of growth in the Caribbean ECCU: Sectoral Real GDP (In percent) 1% Fiji: Sectoral Real GDP (In percent) 1% 8% 6% 46.3 45.6 56.9 61.8 8% 6% 42.7 42.5 52.4 4% 2% % 19.5 21.4 19.1 21. 15. 12. 19.4 17.3 18.3 15.9 6.5 4.1 198 199 2 21 Agriculture Manufacturing Tourism Other services 4% 2% % 15.3 15. 16.1 26.6 25. 19.3 15.5 17.5 12.1 198 199 2 21 Agriculture Manufacturing Tourism Other services Sources: Country authorities; and IMF staff calculations. Barbados: Sectoral Real GDP (In percent) 1% Sources: Country authorities; and IMF staff calculations. Vanuatu: Sectoral Real GDP (In percent) 1% 8% 6% 54.4 61.2 58.6 71.3 8% 6% 55.4 56.8 4% 2% % 13.8 13.9 16.1 21.5 17.6 19. 12.3 11.9 1.3 7.3 6.3 4.5 198 199 2 21 Agriculture Manufacturing Tourism Other services 4% 2% % 13.6 15.5 9.4 9. 21.6 18.8 198 199 21 21 Agriculture Manufacturing Tourism Other services Sources: Country authorities; and IMF staff calculations. Sources: Country authorities; and IMF staff calculations. Note: Tourism include Hotels and Restaurants, half of Wholesale and retail trade, and half of Transport.
US and UK are primary sources of tourism ECCU: Tourist Stay-over Arrivals by Source (In percent) 1% The Bahamas: Tourist Stay-over Arrivals by Source (In percent) 1% 8% 8% 6% 6% 4% 4% 2% United States Canada UK Others 2% United States Canada Europe Others % 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 Sources: Eastern Caribbean Central Bank; and IMF staff calculations. Barbados: Tourist Stay-over Arrivals by Source (In percent) 1% % 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 Sources: Caribbean Tourism Organization; and IMF staff calculations. Jamaica: Tourist Stay-over Arrivals by Source (In percent) 1% 8% 8% 6% 6% 4% 4% 2% 2% United States Canada Europe Others United States Canada Europe Others % 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 Sources: Caribbean Tourism Organization; and IMF staff calculations. % 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 Sources: Caribbean Tourism Organization; and IMF staff calculations.
Human Development Index 211-45: None 45-5: Barbados and Palau 5-75: Bahamas, Antigua and Barbuda, Trinidad and Tobago, Grenada, St. Kitts and Nevis 75-1: Jamaica, Dominica, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Tonga, Samoa, Fiji
But income inequality is a concern Country Year Gini Antigua and Barbuda 26.48 Belize 29.42 Dominica 29.44 Grenada 28.37 St. Kitts and Nevis 28.4 St. Lucia 26.42 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 28.4 Trinidad and Tobago 25.39 Maldives 24.37 Micronesia, Fed.Sts. 2.61 Seychelles 27.19 Turkey 28.4 Korea 29.31 United States 29.47 Sources: World Bank, World Developmnet Indicators ; various Country Poverty Assessment Reports; U.S. Census Bureau; CIA World Factbook;and IMF staff calculations.
And unemployment is high in many countries Unemployment is high, especially in the ECCU countries (all in double digits) Your unemployment as high as 4 percent in some countries Significant underemployment despite government incentives to firms
What are the key challenges to broad based growth in small economies? Size of the domestic market Distance to external markets Lack of infrastructure (high energy and transportation costs, ports and customs) Access to credit (especially for SMEs and small farmers) Lack of skills (that fit the rapid changes in technology)
Tourism has a positive effect on growth that more than compensates for being a small island Caribbean: Factors Contributing to Growth vis-à-vis the World (Percent) 5 4 3 2 4.3 5 4 3 2 1.5 1 -.3-2.3-1 -1-2 -2-3 Arrivals / population Investment / GDP Size Small islands -3
Government policies to overcome diseconomies of scale and generate growth Regional integration (OECS 8-point stabilization program and broader CARICOM Single Market Economy) Harmonization of regulations Reduction of barriers to the regional movement of labor Liberalization of air transport services Mutual recognition of technical and vocational certificates Gradual divestiture (TCL) Skill development (education revolution and distance learning programs)
Successful private sector initiatives in the Caribbean have focused on Targeting the regional market Partnering with international companies and organizations Expanding to higher-skill-intensive products
Some takeaways Tourism is main driver of growth Productivity is key to sustained growth High public debt is a drag on growth Government can play a key role (regional integration, infrastructure) Private sector is ultimate driver of growth)
Thank you!
Comparison of Caribbean and Asia-Pacific Islands Real per capita GDP PPP (Constant 25 US$) Real per capita GDP PPP (Constant 25 US$) 3, 6, 25, 5, 2, 15, 1, 5, Simple Average $12,65 4, 3, 2, 1, Simple Average $3,199 Sources: World Bank, World Development Indicators; IMF, World Economic Outlook; and IMF staff calculations. Sources: World Bank, World Development Indicators; and IMF staff calculations. Population (In thousands) Population (In thousands) 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Simple Average 527 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Left scale Simple Average 1,14 (right scale) 1,2 1, 8 6 4 2 Sources: World Bank, World Development Indicators; and IMF staff calculations. Sources: World Bank, World Development Indicators; and IMF staff calculations.
Most Caribbean countries are losing ground to their peers and to fast-growing emerging and developing countries. Caribbean: Per capita GDP (PPP) Relative to Relevant Comparators, 197 29 ECCU ¹ 1.1.9 3. Commodity Exporters ² 1.6 Ratio to Caribbean (noncommodity exporters) (left scale) Ratio to Latin America 1.4 (left scale) Ratio to emerging and developing 5. 4.5 Other Caribbean ³ 1.6 1.4 4.8 4.3 2.5 1.2 4. 3.8.7.5 Ratio to Caribbean (non-eccu) (left scale) Ratio to emerging and developing Ratio to small islands 2. 1..8 3.5 3. 2.5 1.2 1. Ratio to Caribbean (nonother) (left scale) Ratio to emerging and developing Ratio to small islands 3.3 2.8 2.3.3 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 1.5.6 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 2..8 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 1.8 Source: IMF staff calculations. ¹ IncludesAntigua & Barbuda, Dominica, Grenada, St. Kitts &Nevis, St. Lucia, and St. Vincent & the Grenadines. ² Includes Guyana, Suriname, and Trinidad & Tobago. ³ Includes the Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, and Jamaica.
There is significant scope for boosting growth by raising productivity Caribbean: Output per Worker and Its Components, 21 27 ¹ (Ratios to the United States).9.9.6.6.3.3. Caribbean ECCU ² Commodity Other Caribbean ⁴ exporters ³ Actual output per worker ratio Output ratio assuming the US capital per worker level Output ratio assuming the US productivity level Sources: Emergency Disaster Database (EM-DAT), CRED (21); and Heston, Summers, and Aten (29); IMF staff calculations. ¹ Data adjusted for the effect of hurricanes on capital. ² Antigua & Barbuda, Dominica, Grenada, St. Kitts & Nevis, St. Lucia, and St. Vincent & the Grenadines. ³ Guyana, Suriname, and Trinidad & Tobago. ⁴ The Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, and Jamaica..