MONTROSE REGIONAL AIRPORT APRIL 12, 2016
AGENDA READY FOR TAKE OFF WHAT ARE WE GOING TO DO TODAY? Introductions Why conduct an airport master plan? Master Plan Process Deliverables Schedule Identify Goals of the Airport Master Plan Next Steps
AIRPORT MASTER TEAM INTRODUCTIONS Consultant Team Nick Rollo Keith O Connor Chris Pomeroy Alex Tweedle Dan Cohn Technical Advisory Committee Country Commissioners Airport Staff Airport Advisory Board
AIRPORT MASTER PLANNING Why conduct an airport master plan? Meet FAA requirements to maintain current: Airport Layout Plan (ALP) Exhibit A Property Map Eligible for FAA and CDOT funding AGIS survey/ealp/paper ALP Changes in FAA design criteria - 13a Opportunities to generate airport revenue Shape the future
AIRPORT MASTER PLANNING Why conduct an airport master plan? The time is now! Record activity level Increased service Constrained facilities
PROCESS Three phase approach 16 to 18 months to complete Stakeholder & public involvement WE ARE HERE
PROCESS PHASE I Phase I Goals & Objectives Inventory of Existing Conditions Forecast of Aviation Demand
PROCESS PHASE II Phase II Facility Requirements Alternatives Development Select Preferred Alternative
PROCESS PHASE III Phase III Implementation Plan Paper ALP Approval AGIS Completion
AIRPORT MASTER PLANNING What is the result of the airport master plan? Technical Report Goals & Objectives Inventory of existing conditions Forecast of aviation demand Near & long term preferred development Preliminary environmental review Realistic CIP/implementation plan
AIRPORT MASTER PLANNING What is the result of the airport master plan? AGIS Survey/eALP Aerial and topography Paper ALP ALP drawing Terminal aerial plan Airport airspace drawing Inner portion of the approach surface drawing Runway departure surface drawing On/off airport land use drawing Property Map
AIRPORT MASTER PLAN SCHEDULE INITIATION INVENTORY EXISTING CONDITIONS AVIATION FORECASTS 2015 2016 2017 DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR FACILITY REQUIREMENTS ALTERNATIVES DEVELOPMENT & EVAL AIRPORT PLANS WE ARE HERE IMPLEMENTATION PLAN REPORTS & DOCUMENTATION PUBLIC MEETINGS DELIVERABLE MEETINGS
COMMERCIAL AVIATION FORECAST Forecast of Aviation Demand Backbone of the Master Plan Review Historical Activity: MTJ Service Areas Approximately 73% of all MTJpassengers outside the airport service area Historically approximately 45% of annual traffic occurs in Q1
COMMERCIAL AVIATION FORECAST Enplanements Historical Enplanements 120,000 100,000 84,701 80,000 60,000 40,000 73,320 80,173 86,728 MTJ Enplanements increased by approximately 21% between 2011 and 2015, making 2015 a record year at MTJ 102,637 20,000 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
COMMERCIAL AVIATION FORECAST Departing Seats Historical Departing Seats 160,000 140,000 128,640 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 100,289 113,976 121,209 MTJ Seat Capacity has increased at MTJ by 10% between 2011 and 2015 140,941 20,000 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
COMMERCIAL AVIATION FORECAST Historical Load Factor 80.0% MTJ Load Factor performance illustrates that demand has been keeping pace with the incremental capacity growth at MTJ 70.0% 65.8% 73.1% 70.3% 71.6% 72.8% Load Factor (%) 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
COMMERCIAL AVIATION FORECAST Commercial Aviation Forecast Reviewed various forecasting methodologies including the following: Correlation of MTJenplanements growth to population and per capita income in Montrose County and US Share of MTJenplanements as a percentage of US national enplanements Correlation of MTJenplanements growth rate to FAA Northwest Mountain Region growth rate Correlation of MTJenplanements growth rate to CO Western Slope airports growth rate
COMMERCIAL AVIATION FORECAST Commercial Aviation Forecast Findings No statistical correlation between population and/or per capita income to MTJ enplanement No statistical correlation between MTJenplanements to national trends Comparable (2006-2015) 10 year CAGR for Enplanements MTJ2.4% Northwest Mountain Region 1.5% CO Western Slope airports (MTJ, GJT, DRO, GUC, TEX) 2.5% *CAGR = Compound Average Annual Growth
COMMERCIAL AVIATION FORECAST Commercial Aviation Forecast Recommended Forecast 2016-2035 Preferred forecast growth rate for MTJenplanements during the planning horizon of 2016-2035 is 1.5% CAGR Equal to Northwest Mountain Region s 10 year CAGR This is a conservative forecast of future enplanements at MTJ MTJhas, and will continue to, gain additional traffic from TEXand GUC 5 year (2020) enplanement forecast is 8.6% higher than the TAF(110,732 vs. 101,969) 10 year (2025) enplanement forecast is 14.7% higher than the TAF(119,466 vs. 104,144) Within the acceptable range to be considered consistent with the TAF *TAF = FAA Terminal Area Forecast
COMMERCIAL AVIATION FORECAST Enplanement Forecast 20106-2035 175,000 MTJ enplanements are projected to grow from approximately 104,000 in 2016 to 139,000 in 2035 150,000 Historical Forecast 125,000 100,000 75,000 TAF NW Mountain Enpl. Growth Driven CO Western Slope Enpl. Growth Driven Population Driven Personal Income Per Capita 50,000
COMMERCIAL AVIATION FORECAST Operations Forecast 20106-2035 7,000 MTJ air carrier operations are projected to grow from approximately 4,000 in 2016 to 4,900 in 2035 6,000 Historical Forecast 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 TAF MTJ Air Carrier Operations Forecast 1,000
COMMERCIAL AVIATION FORECAST Forecast Enplanements & Operations vs. FAA Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) Year Airport Forecast (AF) Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) AF/TAF % Difference Passenger Enplanements Base Year 2015 102,637 99,990 2.6% Base Year + 5 yrs. 2020 110,732 101,969 8.6% Base Year + 10 yrs. 2025 119,466 104,144 14.7% Base Year + 15 yrs. 2030 128,888 106,536 21.0% Base Year + 20 yrs. 2035 139,054 109,171 27.4% Commercial Operations Base Year 2015 3,764 5,435-30.7% Base Year + 5 yrs. 2020 4,252 5,702-25.4% Base Year + 10 yrs. 2025 4,469 5,987-25.3% Base Year + 15 yrs. 2030 4,697 6,276-25.2% Base Year + 20 yrs. 2035 4,888 6,580-25.7%
AIRSIDE ISSUES BOUNDARY SURVEY POTENTIAL FUTURE AVIATION DEVELOPMENT RPZ LAND ACQUISITION PAVEMENT RUTTING IMPROVED SOUTH GA ACCESS
TERMINAL AREA ISSUES COMMERCIAL APRON EXPANSION FBO DEVELOPMENT FUTURE FBO GROUND ACCESS RELOCATE RENTAL CAR WASH RELOCATE AIRPORT ENTRANCE WITH SIGNAL TERMINAL EXPANSION AREA ANALYZE CURBSIDE ACCESS IMPROVEMENTS FUTURE RENTAL CAR WASH & PARKING IMPROVED WAYFINDING
GOALS & OBJECTIVES VISIONING Visioning Session Interactive discussion with audience to provide input on Master Plan goals & objectives Make no little plans. They have no magic to stir men s blood and they themselves will not be realized. Daniel Burnham Planner and Architect 1846-1912
GOALS & OBJECTIVES VISIONING Questions to Consider What are the best things about Montrose Regional Airport? What is your future vision of the: Ground Access & Front Door Terminal Building Airfield Air Service General Aviation Development What can be improved?
NEXT STEPS Coordination with FAA & CDOT Finalize Working Paper #1 Goals & Objectives Inventory of Existing Conditions FAA Approval Forecast of Aviation Demand Next Stakeholder Meeting June 21 st Present Findings from Facility Requirements Charrette for Development Alternatives
THANK YOU