UNITED KINGDOM LEEDS OFFICES QUARTER 3 2018
2 528,654 SQ FT YTD INVESTMENT 335m 2018 Leeds city centre saw strong levels of demand in Q3 2018, with take-up at 191,464 sq ft. Similar levels of take-up were seen in the beginning of 2018 in Q1 with overall year-to-date leasing activity standing at 528,654 sq ft. We expect the strong level of demand to continue through to the end of the year, with year-end take-up to stand at c. 700,000 sq ft, exceeding the 5-year average. There was a 23% increase in Grade A transactions this quarter, totalling 129,884 sq ft. The largest Grade A deal was HMRC taking 60,000 sq ft at 3 Wellington Place. The second largest Grade A deal was also for space in 3 Wellington Place, with accountancy firm Mazars leasing 13,000 sq ft. The average Grade A deal size for this quarter equated to 7,640 sq ft. Also, of note is the deal that saw BUPA take 23,700 sq ft at Kirkstall Forge, the recently launched Grade A out-of-town offering from CEG. Take-up by size band analysis shows deals over 25K are responsible for the greatest proportion of take-up this quarter; however, as this is solely comprised of the 60,000 sq ft HMRC deal, this skews the analysis to the largest deal size. Deals in the 10K-25K size band comprise 20% of total takeup, along with those in the smaller deal sizes of 0-3K (see Figure 2). The average deal size of transactions in the 10K-25K size band is 12,612 sq ft, this includes the Mazars deal at 3 Wellington Place. Transactions in the 0-3K also comprise the largest percentage number of deals (62%), totalling 24 out of 39 deals this quarter. Aside from the government sector (HMRC, 3 Wellington Place), which dominates our take-up analysis (see Figure 3), the most active were media & technology occupiers. Leeds is renowned for its growing strength in the TMT sector and this has been reinforced with the sector accounting for 26% of total take-up, comprising of 13 out of 39 deals. The largest media & technology deal saw Infinity Works lease 12,642 sq ft at Apsley House. Media & technology occupiers took c. 30,000 sq ft more space in Q3 2018 compared to Q2 2018 (see Figure 3), a trend we expect to continue.
3 FIGURE 1: LEEDS CITY CENTRE QUARTERLY By Grade (Q1 2012-Q3 2018) sq ft 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 Grade A Grade B Grade C 5 Yr Qrtly Average Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 FIGURE 2: Q3 2018 By Size Band 25k+ 10-25k 5-10k 3-5k 0-3k 1 3% 8% 3 20% 31% 13% 5 14% 24 62% N O OF DEALS 15% 6 15% 20% FIGURE 3: By Business Type Q2 2018 Take-Up 7% 27% Q3 2018 Take-Up 6% 2% 18% 4% Legal Business Services Financial Services Engineering Media & Technology Government Retail 22% 26% Property Insurance 14% 18% 31% Medical Education Other 5% 1% 4% 2% 3% 8% 1%
4 SUPPLY Leeds city centre saw a number of new Grade A buildings come to the market in 2016/2017. Central Square is the only new Grade A building with more than 50,000 sq ft ready to occupy; whereas, CBRE GI s Grade A refurbishment at 6/7 Park Row has a little over 40,000 sq ft of space ready to let (see Figure 4). Overall supply continues to fall, despite a slight increase this quarter in Grade B availability. The trend of declining Grade A availabilty continues, with Grade A vacancy representing 2.0% of the total city centre office market. The overall city centre office vacancy is 8.3% (see Figure 6).
5 FIGURE 4: CITY CENTRE OFFICE COMPLETIONS (SQ FT) 6/7 Park Row 6 Queen Street 5 Wellington Place 3 Sovereign Square 6 Wellington Place 3 Wellington Place Platform Central Square Available Committed 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 Sq Ft FIGURE 5: LEEDS DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE (2015-2019) 700,000 600,000 500,000 Complete Under Construction Under Construction - Refurb sq ft 400,000 300,000 200,000 Q4 2019 (fully committed to GPU) 100,000 Q3 2019 0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Q1 2019* *61,000 sq ft committed to Walker Morris Grade A Grade B Grade C FIGURE 6: LEEDS CITY CENTRE AVAILABILITY By Grade ( H1 2008-Q3 2018) sq ft 2.000,000 1,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 H1 2008 H2 2008 H1 2009 H2 2009 H1 2010 H2 2010 H1 2011 H2 2011 H1 2012 H2 2012 H1 2013 H2 2013 H1 2014 H2 2014 H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016 H1 2017 H2 2017 H1 2018 Q3 2018
6 RENTS INVESTMENT Headline rents in the city centre remain at 30 psf, with Grade B rents at 22 psf (see Figure 7). We have started to see minor uplifts in Grade A rents on smaller deals. As demand for Grade A space continues to increase in the city centre, we expect prime rents to rise. Leeds city centre continues to see strong investment activity throughout the first three quarters of this year. Investment volumes in the first half of 2018 were at an all time high. Transaction volumes for reached 335 million, the highest for seven years. The most notable transaction this quarter was Artmax Properties purchase of 1 Sovereign Street for 50 million from Gatehouse Bank, on a yield of 5.42%. The second largest investment deal saw Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank purchase Lateral for 24 million on a yield of 7.99%. Whilst investment activity has been strong so far this year, an air of caution is envisaged as the approach of Brexit moves closer. OUTLOOK There are a number of schemes in the future pipeline, which will deliver large scaled mixed-use development and much needed regeneration to key city centre brownfield sites. The positive momentum has continued in Q3 and, given the number of active occupier requirements, the Leeds office market looks set for another outstanding year-end performance. Leeds continues to grow in strength this year as an investment hotspot, with 335million invested in the first three quarters of 2018. We expect Leeds to continue to attract further investment. Leeds remains attractive to occupiers as the cost of real estate and employment give it a competitive edge over other major regional cities. The recent announcement that Leeds has been selected for the new Headquarters of Channel 4, beating bids from Greater Manchester and Birmingham, reinforces the attraction of the city amongst the Big 9 regional markets. The move will boost employment within the region and will also attract further investment and development as the most recent high profile example of north shoring. As a result of ongoing demand and declining supply, we expect prime office rents to increase.
7 FIGURE 7: LEEDS CITY CENTRE RENTS (1995-2020) 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 Grade A Grade B 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018f 2019f 2020f FIGURE 8: LEEDS OFFICE INVESTMENT ( Q1 2007-Q3 2018) 400 350 300 s Millions 250 200 150 100 50 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 The Leeds office market looks set for another outstanding year-end performance.
FOR MORE INFORMATION OFFICES Roddy Morrison +44 113 200 1810 roddy.morrison@colliers.com RESEARCH & FORECASTING Lisa Dean +44 20 7487 1961 lisa.dean@colliers.com Oliver Stainsby +44 113 200 1811 oliver.stainsby@colliers.com Charles Preston +44 113 200 1808 charles.preston@colliers.com Colliers International Group Inc. (NASDAQ:CIGI) (TSX:CIGI) is a top tier global real estate services and investment management company operating in 69 countries with a workforce of more than 12,000 professionals. Colliers is the fastest-growing publicly listed global real estate services and investment management company, with 2017 corporate revenues of $2.3 billion ($2.7 billion including affiliates). With an enterprising culture and significant employee ownership and control, Colliers professionals provide a full range of services to real estate occupiers, owners and investors worldwide, and through its investment management services platform, has more than $20 billion of assets under management from the world s most respected institutional real estate investors. Colliers professionals think differently, share great ideas and offer thoughtful and innovative advice to accelerate the success of its clients. Colliers has been ranked among the top 100 global outsourcing firms by the International Association of Outsourcing Professionals for 13 consecutive years, more than any other real estate services firm. Colliers is ranked the number one property manager in the world by Commercial Property Executive for two years in a row. Colliers International UK 50 George Street London W1U 7GA Colliers is led by an experienced leadership team with significant equity ownership and a proven record of delivering more than 20% annualized returns for shareholders, over more than 20 years. Research & Forecasting