ISBN 32-027.1 (497-15) (RE)BALKANIZATION OF THE WESTERN BALKANS: NEW CHALLENGES ON SECURITY IN THE REGION PhD. Dragan Djukanovic 1 Deputy Director, Senior Research Fellow, the Institute of International Politics and Economics, Belgrade, Republic of Serbia dragandjuk@yahoo.com Ass. Prof. Dr.Sc. Marjan Gjurovski Faculty of Security-Skopje, Republic of Macedonia mgjurovski@fb.uklo.edu.mk Abstract The Western Balkans is facing with numerous internal challenges, but also those who are attached to relations with the dominant actors in the world politics the United States of America, European Union along with the Russian Federation. Its internal contradictions of the Western Balkans shows, as well as foreign policy, and should be kept in mind that the existing fundamental orientation of the countries in this part of Europe with respect to membership in the European Union may still be modified. Parallely with the above process can be strengthened and "new-old" nationalisms in the region and strengthen regional instability (terrorism, organized crime, religious fundamentalism, etc.). Therefore, the authors of this study concluded that it was necessary to redesign the existing access to European Union ant the NATO towards the Balkans and incorporate it fully into Euro-Atlantic structures, and to be avoided in new instability. Key Words: Western Balkans, European Union, security, challenges, nationalisms, instability AПСТРАКТ Регионот на Западен Балкан се наоѓа пред бројни внатрешни предизвици, но и такви кои се поврзани за односите со доминантните актери во светската политика- САД, Европската унија и Руската федерација. Своите внатрешни противречности Западниот Балкан ги искажуваат, како и на надворешно-политички план, а треба да се има на ум дека постои темелна ориентација на државите на овој дел од Европа, а поврзано со членство во Европската Унија сепак може да бидат модифицирани. Паралелно со наведениот процес 1 Dragan Đukanović, PhD, Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of International Politics and Economics, Belgrade. E-mail: draganjuk@yahoo.com. The paper has been carried out within the project Serbia in contemporary international integration processes foreign policy, international, economic, legal and security aspects of the Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development of the Republic of Serbia, No. OI 179023 for the 2011 2015 period.
може да се зајакне и новиот-стариот национализам во регионот, но и да се зајакне нестабилноста во регионот (тероризам, организиран криминал, верски фундаментализам итн.) Затоа оворите на овој труд заклучуваат дека е неопходно редизајнирање на постоечкиот пристап на Европската Унија кон Балканот вклучувајќи го во евроатланските структури, а како би се избегнала нова нестабилност. Клучни зборови:западен Балкан, Европската унија, безбедност, предизвици, национализми, нестабилност Is there a danger of re-balkanization of the West Balkan and balkanization of the European Union The new tensions between the East and the West that were more visible during the crisis in Ukraine in the beginning of 2014 have shown numerous weaknesses of the modern Balkan reality i.e. the numerous latent instabilities in the region. 2 Again the countries from the West Balkan were faced with the necessity to have to choose a side in this conflict or to keep any kind of equidistance as they wouldn t jeopardize their foreign policy position. 3 In that context it was evident that Montenegro, Albania and Kosovo have distanced themselves from official Moscow introducing restrictive measures toward this country, which introduced them to the European Union. 4 About the others, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina (thanks to the Republika Srpska) and Macedonia remained mostly neutral according to this question by not joining these sanctions by which they tried to keep their relations with the Russian Federation good. 5 This condition was used by Russia for personal reposition and in certain way by disturbing the role of the USA and EU. Also, despite the impact of the penetration of the Russian Federation in the West Balkan, the impact of Turkey becomes stronger, traditionally relied on the Albanian and Bosniak factor in this part of Europe. Turkey on certain way tries to strengthen the business and the cultural impact in this part of Europe and to represent itself as protector of the Balkan Muslim population. Indeed, certain deep sentimental and public opinions of the countries in the region, first of all of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo, show that the relationship becomes even stronger. On the other hand, it is evident that the European Union is trying to keep all the countries from the region of the West Balkan into the common bond despite the internal crisis in their organization's long-term goal accomplished. 6 In that context it is important to be said that the most active role from the West Balkan has Germany which attempts to keep the stability of the region but also to influence on the internal reforms in these countries and their external 2 D. Đukanović, Evropska unija i Zapadni Balkan: očekivanja i isčekivanja, Kultura polisa, Kultura Polis Novi Sad, Institut za evropske studije, Beograd, Novi Sad, 2014, str. 25 38. 3 D. Đukanović, The new wick on the 'Balkan Power keg'?, Turkish Weekly, Ankara, June 13, 2015, Internet: http://www.turkishweekly.net/2015/06/13/op-ed/the-new-wick-on-the-balkan-powder-keg/, 4 D. Đukanović, The Process of Institutionalization of the EU s CFSP in the Western Balkans Countries during the Ukraine Crisis, Croatian International Relations Review, 1/2015, Zagreb 2015, pp. 81 106. 5 Ibidem. 6 Dragan Đukanović, Zapadni Balkan 2014. napredak u evropskim integracijama ili stagnacija?, u: Dragan Đukanović, Aleksandar Jazić i Miloš Jončić (urs.), Srbija, region i Evropska unija, Institut za međunarodnu politiku i privredu, Beograd, 2015, str. 247 259. 2
modernization, decade and a half after the conflicts have finished. 7 The Official Berlin in this moment gives the most important support to Serbia and Albania. Also, it is insisted on improving the bilateral relations in this part of Europe. 8 Also, it is important to say that the European Union or Germany as the most influential member keeps finding itself caught off when it comes to certain cases from different countries from the West Balkan. The recent internal crisis in Macedonia related to the actions of the Albanian paramilitary forces and their attempt to destabilize the country, and the manifest and latent animosities between the government and the opposition in the country, which often exceeds the conventional political methods of struggle, indicates that the region remains considerably unstable. 9 The European Union has not given any relevant answers to these issues, but rather remained caught in the process, without a direction for Macedonia in the further rather unstable situation. A similar was the situation with the terroristic attack at the end of May 2015 that happened in the East Bosnian city Zvornik, when a member of the radical Vahabic movement killed two members of the police forces. 10 This has disturbed the inter-ethnic relations which are still not consolidated even after two decades from the Dayton Peace Agreement which put an end on the war in Bosnia and Herzegovina. 11 At the same time, the events associated with this year, twentieth consecutive commemoration of the atrocity at Srebrenica when the Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic was attacked by a large group of citizens showed that the wounds related to the war in Bosnia and Herzegovina are not yet sufficiently healed. From here, the variety of types of interethnic tension in Bosnia and Herzegovina could soon result in spiraling occurrence of various incidents. Very similar is the state of relations between Serbia and Albania for each most sensitive issue related to a different interpretation of the status of Kosovo. Within these relationships there are certain potentials for causing widespread instability, particularly in certain municipalities in southern Serbia (Presevo, Bujanovac and Medvedja) which are predominantly populated by Albanians seeking a "balanced" position as provided for Serbs in Kosovo under the First Agreement on normalization of relations between the governments in Belgrade and Pristine (30.04.2015). It presupposes a formation of triple associations of the municipalities in the far South of Serbia. 12 So, the impact of never forgotten ex-yugoslav conflicts remains noticeably strengths in the relations between the states and peoples in the region. So the Western Balkans today faces 7 Ibidem. 8 Dragan Đukanović, Bilateral Relations Between The Western Balkan Countries Historical Background And Contemporary Challenges, in: Duško Dimitrijević, Ivona Lađevac and Ana Jović-Lazić (eds), Regionalism and Reconciliation, Global Resource Management, Doshisha University, Japan, Institute of International Politics and Economics, Belgrade, 2014, pp. 111 127. 9 Makedonija: Vlast i opozicija se sporezumeli oko izlaska iz krize, Newsweek, Beograd, July 15, 2015, Internet: http://www.newsweek.rs/svet/52818-makedonija-vlas-i-opozicija-se-sporazumeli-oko-izlaska-iz-krize.html, 12/09/2015. 10 D. Đukanović, The new wick on the 'Balkan Power keg'?, Turkish Weekly, op. cit. 11 Dragan Đukanović, Milovan Jovanović, Kriza u Federaciji Bosne i Hercegovine između građanskog bunta i revizije političkog sistema, Kultura polisa, Kultura Polis, Novi Sad, Institut za evropske studije, Beograd, god. XI, br. 24, Novi Sad, 2014, str. 59 80. 12 Na jugu Zajednica albanskih opština?, RTV B92, Beorad, 10. septembar 2015, Internet: http://www.b92.net/info/vesti/index.php?yyyy=2015&mm=09&dd=10&nav_category=11&nav_id=1037403, 12/08/2015. 3
constantly reviving certain interstate disputes, which means we can talk about "re-balkanization" in the Balkans, or recovery of certain instability. 13 This further confirms the tensions related to the economic and financial crisis in Greece, which has shown some weaknesses in the euro zone, but in the broad concept of today's European Union too. The current leftist populist governments in Athens, thanks to the strengthening of the anti-european and anti-german sentiments are trying to cover up the failure of their measures for consolidation of the country and in a way to examine the measures of perseverance of the administration of the European Union in this regard. 14 The reached agreement about the Greek debt and its stay in the euro zone still in the future implementation will have some problems and in each of the stages in its agreement may arise a substantial cancellation of the process. Because of this we can conclude that the actual financial problem is even bigger than the condition in certain unstable countries in the West Balkan, even though this country is a member of the European Union for many years. 15 It is certain that similar scenario of the internal economic problems of radicalization can happen in other east Balkan countries like Bulgaria. Namely, the social and the economic problems there are piling up and the country is faced to big civil protests. 16 From the foregoing it is clear that the enlargement of the Union in the Balkans (Greece 1981, Bulgaria 2007), but also the Croatia's entry into the organization in 2013 does not confirm that it has contributed a successful development of these countries. On the contrary, most of them don t have solved quality relations with their immediate neighbors, and their socioeconomic parameters are extremely unfavorable. On the other hand, and the European Union often shows disagreement in certain situations, such as "pale" reaction of the Ukrainian crisis means collisions in the vicinity and certain types of Russian expansionism. 17 The European Union reacted post-festum in certain events and as the recent case with Macedonia does not have specific challenges, but only follows the effects of certain developments. The situation with the drastic migrant s crisis or the entrance of many people from Africa and Asia whose goal is entering the European Union is very similar. In trying to address this issue the European Union has shown the absence of one of the fundamental values of "solidarity." The European Union didn t show solidarity to Hungary and its south neighbor Serbia during the Asian crisis, but it decided to build a special fence or wall on this border. 18 At the same time, it comes to the fore the internal disagreements of the members of the Union on relation north-south and east-west. 19 It is undisputed that Germany in the following period will be the most powerful country in the Union which affects not only the development of the Union but also its extension. In that sense Germany is dominant player for all the countries 13 Evropska bezbednost na raskršću i položaj Srbije, Centar za spoljnu politiku, Friedrich Ebert Stiftung, Beograd, 2015. 14 Ibidem. 15 Ibidem. 16 Ibidem. 17 D. Đukanović, The Process of Institutionalization of the EU s CFSP in the Western Balkans Countries during the Ukraine Crisis, Croatian International Relations Review, op. cit. 18 Rachel Browne, Hungary Is Building a Wall Along the Serbian Border to Keep Migrants Out, Vicenews, July 13, 2015, Internet: https://news.vice.com/article/hungary-is-building-a-wall-along-the-serbian-border-to-keepmigrants-out, 19 Evropska bezbednost na raskršću i položaj Srbije, op. cit. 4
from the West Balkan because from its attitude toward them depends their joining to the European Union. The potential exit of Britain from the Union (the Brexit) after the scheduled referendum in 2017 will additionally make this tendencies and the Germany s domination even stronger. 20 West Balkan 2015- facing itself and the movement toward the European Union The West Balkan beside the mentioned numerous problems is part of the Euro-Atlantic integrations. Namely, this long termed and partly uncertain process is gradually progressing for 15 years because it is an introductory process of stabilization and association of the European Union (1999). 21 Montenegro and Serbia lead this process but without a start of the negotiations. Bosnia and Herzegovina and Macedonia on the other hand have a visible lag in the process and are faced with numerous internal problems. Bosnia and Herzegovina is faced with many problems of the ethno-national elites of Serbs, Bosnians and Croats. Despite the last year's German-British initiative that should unblock the internal crisis in Bosnia and Herzegovina and reduce the evident instability, but also to accelerate the European integration of the country, never came to that. It is particularly important to point out that despite the efforts of the European Union on a Stabilization and Association Agreement with Bosnia and Herzegovina entered into force, although there were a number of previous preconditions, a significant progress inside the country never happened even after the formation of its government after last year's parliamentary elections that happened in early October. 22 At the same time Macedonia which insists on its constitutional name haven t solved the problem with Greece in two and a half decades, and such unfavorable external political situation strengthens the numerous events connected with the interethnic provocations and Macedonian deep internal division that was transformed in a conflict between the opposition and the government in the country. 23 Numerous European and regional analysts believe that the country is "the most neuralgic point" in the West Balkan region. 24 That means that this country and the events may cause regional instability as a result of the complex relations with its neighbors (Greece, Bulgaria, Albania and Serbia). Kosovo, whose independence has not been recognized by five Member States of the European Union managed to conclude stabilization and association agreement and its perspective, is still quite visible. 25 Yet within Kosovo, there are certain problems when it comes to the acceptance that the Albanian military formations after the NATO intervention in former Yugoslavia have made ethnic crimes. We sould have on mind that the dinamyc of approaching of the West Balkan countries toward the European Union is still followed by the unwillingness of the Union for its 20 Ibidem. 21 D. Đukanović, Evropska unija i Zapadni Balkan: očekivanja i isčekivanja, Kultura polisa, op. cit., str. 25 38. 22 Gordana Sandić-Hadžihasanović, Odblokirani sporazum sa EU: Nova šansa za BiH, Radio Slobodna Evropa, Balkanski servis, Prag, 21. april 2015, Internet: http://www.slobodnaevropa.org/content/aktiviranje-sporazuma-saeu-nova-sansa-za-bih/26969388.html, 15/09/2015. 23 No Stability without Accountability The West s Responsibility in Macedonia, Democratization Policy Council, Berlin New York, 1 June 2015. 24 Ibidem. 25 See Web presentation fo the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Kosovo www.mfa-ks.net. 5
extension. 26 That process will last for at least two decades and not like the Brussels officials say couple of years ( a statement of the statement by the Commissioner Johannes Hahn that in the following five years there will be no enlargement of the EU). 27 The European Union will hold the countries from the West Balkan out of its membership taught from the experience with Bulgaria and Romania (2007), as well as from its experience with the entrance of Croatia (2013). 28 The delay of the expansion is also a result of the current financial crisis in Greece. At the same time the numerous unsolved issues within the Western Balkans can be seen in the numerous unsolved bilateral problems and the potential flashpoints that can start the 'Balkan tinder-box'. 29 The West Balkan standing at the edge of such processes is a convinient ground for organized criminal and corruption. But also, the increased criminal structures and the carriers of the political government and their structureshave an influence too. The capacities will be strengthened by the strengthening of the religious fanatism that have shown in the ethnic mixed parts of the West Balkan. These events can strenghten the mentioned ethnic and religious structures. 30 The participation of the young generation in the wars in Siria, and Ukraine beside the treats of the criminal sanstioning of this kind of behaviour, is permanently prolonged in all the countries from the West Balkan. 31 At the same time is visible that the radical islamistic and vahabistic movements have become stronger in Bosnia and Herzegovina, the region of Sandzak, as well as in Kosovo and in the West Balkan. 32 It may contain potential risks not only for causing interethnic divisions, but when it comes to clashes among the Muslims in this part of Europe. The megalomaniac ethno-national ideas are still present to some degree in the society in the Balkans. The idea of "indigenous" or natural Albania, in addition to Kosovo may include parts of Macedonia, Greece, southern Serbia and Montenegro, receiving support in some performances of Albanian officials. 33 However it is clear that the European Union would not support such a scenario because that would significantly weaken the sensitive stability in the region. Also, appears occasionally and again revive the idea of a "Greater Serbia", "Great Bosnia","Greater Kosovo", etc.. Instead of conclusion The only reasonable answer of the European Union to the threats for new instability in the West Balkan is a try for significant acceleration of the integrations of the countries from this region. Namely, if the countries from the region stay out of the process that can cause much instability that could influence the EU, which obviously is not totally immune on similar problems and issues. It is clear that only redesigning and completing the current access to the 26 D. Đukanović, Evropska unija i Zapadni Balkan: očekivanja i isčekivanja, Kultura polisa, op. cit., str. 25 38. 27 Han: Širenje EU tehnički nemoguće u narednih pet godina, Blic, Beograd, 2. decembar 2014, Internet: http://www.blic.rs/vesti/svet/516058/han-sirenje-eu-tehnicki-nemoguce-u-narednih-pet-godina, 12/09/2015. 28 Evropska bezbednost na raskršću i položaj Srbije, op. cit. 29 Ibidem. 30 D. Đukanović, The new wick on the 'Balkan Power keg'?, Turkish Weekly, op. cit. 31 Ibidem. 32 Ibidem. 33 Autochthonous flag at the Albanian government building, Belgrade issue a note of protest, Indenendent Balkan News Agency, January 13, 2015, Internet: http://www.balkaneu.com/autochthonous-flag-albaniangovernment-building-belgrade-issues-note-protest/, 6
European Union through the countries from the West Balkan is a precondition for a full integration of all the countries and entities in the region and its stabilization. Any long-term staying of the region of West Balkan out of the European Union and NATO can cause opening of the old problems which will lead to strengthening of the influence of the Russian Federation and Turkey. 34 The different regional favorites from these countries the inter-country and inter-ethnic distance will contribute to new challenges for the stability of the region and will increase the interstate, and ethnic distance. At the same time, the proactive attitude of the European Union will stop the "rebalkanization" of the region, i.e. the ability for creating instability and inter-ethnic intolerance. The support of EU and the United States of America for complete stability of the region, i.e. identifying this geopolitical reality which was supported by them back after the breakup of the Yugoslav federation, may constitute guaranties for its development. It is important to be noted that the fastening of the accession of Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Macedonia in the NATO will strengthen the security in the whole region. We should expect that Montenegro will join the NATO by the end of 2015, but the cases of Macedonia and Bosnia and Herzegovina are conditioned by certain internal reforms, when it comes to Macedonia that is the issue between the government in Skopje and Greece about the name of the country. The entrance in the NATO of these countries will reduce the influence of non-eu actors in the region of the West Balkan and will strengthen the relations with the United States of America. A significant problem for the region is the reducing of the ethno-nationalism here. Their capacities for causing instability are especially strong in all the parts of the West Balkan. Even though it seemed as certain capacities of ethno-nationalism have weaken it is clear that their capacities connected to causing certain harassments and potential violence are weak. In contrary, the revival of the ethno-nationalism is still a potential for new crisis in the region. There aren t real possibilities for consolidation of the situations in the region of the West Balkan if the present elites with European intention do not start looking toward objective suppress of the spreading ethnic and religious hatred and intolerance. They are responsible for nurturing the ethnic structures not only verbally and through the media, but by solving the problems in the region. We should mentioned that the issues related to the inter-division, the position of the minorities, the position of the refugees are not solved as well as the succession of the property of the Former Yugoslav Republic is not conducted. Some countries, like Serbia and Macedonia have unsolved issues with their neighbors. Serbia has problem with Romania, Bulgaria and Albania and Macedonia have certain bilateral problems with Greece and Bulgaria. The solving of these problems is a precondition for the level speed of the accession of Western Balkan countries into the European Union. BIBLIOGRAPHY 1. Autochthonous flag at the Albanian government building, Belgrade issue a note of protest, Indenendent Balkan News Agency, January 13, 2015, Internet: 34 Evropska bezbednost na raskršću i položaj Srbije, op. cit. 7
http://www.balkaneu.com/autochthonous-flag-albanian-government-building-belgradeissues-note-protest/, 2. Browne, R., Hungary Is Building a Wall Along the Serbian Border to Keep Migrants Out, Vicenews, July 13, 2015, Internet: https://news.vice.com/article/hungary-isbuilding-a-wall-along-the-serbian-border-to-keep-migrants-out, 3. Đukanović, D., The new wick on the 'Balkan Power keg'?, Turkish Weekly, Ankara, June 13, 2015, Internet: http://www.turkishweekly.net/2015/06/13/op-ed/the-new-wickon-the-balkan-powder-keg/, 4. Đukanović, D., Evropska unija i Zapadni Balkan: očekivanja i isčekivanja, Kultura polisa, Kultura Polis Novi Sad, Institut za evropske studije, Beograd, Novi Sad, 2014, str. 25 38. 5. Đukanović, D., Zapadni Balkan 2014. napredak u evropskim integracijama ili stagnacija?, u: Dragan Đukanović, Aleksandar Jazić i Miloš Jončić (urs.), Srbija, region i Evropska unija, Institut za međunarodnu politiku i privredu, Beograd, 2015, str. 247 259. 6. Đukanović, D., Jovanović, M., Kriza u Federaciji Bosne i Hercegovine između građanskog bunta i revizije političkog sistema, Kultura polisa, Kultura Polis, Novi Sad, Institut za evropske studije, Beograd, god. XI, br. 24, Novi Sad, 2014, str. 59 80. 7. Đukanović, D., The Process of Institutionalization of the EU s CFSP in the Western Balkans Countries during the Ukraine Crisis, Croatian International Relations Review, 1/2015, Zagreb 2015, pp. 81 106. 8. Đukanovićm D., Bilateral Relations Between The Western Balkan Countries Historical Background And Contemporary Challenges, in: Duško Dimitrijević, Ivona Lađevac and Ana Jović-Lazić (eds), Regionalism and Reconciliation, Global Resource Management, Doshisha University, Japan, Institute of International Politics and Economics, Belgrade, 2014, pp. 111 127. 9. Evropska bezbednost na raskršću i položaj Srbije, Centar za spoljnu politiku, Friedrich Ebert Stiftung, Beograd, 2015. 10. Han: Širenje EU tehnički nemoguće u narednih pet godina, Blic, Beograd, 2. decembar 2014, Internet: http://www.blic.rs/vesti/svet/516058/han-sirenje-eu-tehnickinemoguce-u-narednih-pet-godina, 12/09/2015. 11. Makedonija: Vlast i opozicija se sporezumeli oko izlaska iz krize, Newsweek, Beograd, July 15, 2015, Internet: http://www.newsweek.rs/svet/52818-makedonija-vlas-iopozicija-se-sporazumeli-oko-izlaska-iz-krize.html, 12/09/2015. 12. Na jugu Zajednica albanskih opština?, RTV B92, Beorad, 10. septembar 2015, Internet: http://www.b92.net/info/vesti/index.php?yyyy=2015&mm=09&dd=10&nav_category=1 1&nav_id=1037403, 12/08/2015. 13. No Stability without Accountability The West s Responsibility in Macedonia, Democratization Policy Council, Berlin New York, 1 June 2015. 14. Sandić-Hadžihasanović, G., Odblokirani sporazum sa EU: Nova šansa za BiH, Radio Slobodna Evropa, Balkanski servis, Prag, 21. april 2015, Internet: 8
http://www.slobodnaevropa.org/content/aktiviranje-sporazuma-sa-eu-nova-sansa-zabih/26969388.html, 15/09/2015. 9