Credit: Chris Orange BUSINESS BAROMETER December Credit: Nigel Moore 1
Contents Summary of findings 3 Annual monthly performance: visitor attractions..4 Visit Herts Team update 5 National context.8 Visitor Attractions: monthly performance.. 11 Visitor Attractions: annual performance......14 Serviced Accommodation: monthly performance....16 Serviced Accommodation: annual performance..... 19 Other news.........20 Glossary.....24 2
Key Findings In December, Hertfordshire attractions experienced a +8.9% increase in visitor footfall, compared to December 2017. Factors cited by attractions as having positively impacted visitor footfall included good weather and improvements made to facilities. Serviced accommodation providers saw an increase in occupancy of +2.8% compared to December 2017, while RevPAR was also up by +4.5%. 97.6% of visitors to attractions were domestic and 2.4% were from overseas. Out of the overseas visitors, 60% of attractions reported guests from other countries, such as Australia and Canada as being their most prevalent overseas markets. 3
Monthly performance: Visitor Attractions +7.9% Increase in group bookings -1.7% Poor weather +3.6% Increase in the number of events hosted +2.6% Good weather +20.4% Good weather and events +23.9% Increased advertising and events hosted Jan March May July Sep Nov Feb April June Aug Oct Dec +2.6% Increase in brand awareness and marketing +4.8% Increase in the number of events hosted -4.4% Reduced opening times -5.4% Due to the hot weather visitors opted to visit other areas instead of attractions +7.0% Effective targeted marketing campaigns +8.9% Good weather compared to December 2017 *Please note: These figures and factors are taken from the monthly reports. 4
Visit Herts Team Update: Digital statistics Website 140,207 sessions 356,084 pages views 1.08 average dwell time Digital stats 2,040 followers +46% Social Media 1,305 followers +44% 1,428 followers +124% 5
Visit Herts Team Update: Travel Trade Whilst most partners reported as a very successful year on numbers from the travel trade, certain markets began to shift in the build up to Brexit and as a result of the growth of terrorism. International student travellers via travel trade became less willing to travel due to safety, whilst VisitBritain reported that the perception of Britain began to show signs of dropping in the international rankings. International long-haul markets have grown considerably this year, with visitors from as far as China and South America being more willing to travel outside of London to experience new products. Travel Trade The is partly helped by the continued work on the Discover England Fund projects which aim to position destinations and products outside of London as more accessible to international visitors. We are thrilled that our destination continues to be featured in several of these projects. The travel trade continues to seek out bespoke, memorable experiences as part of itineraries, rather than standard visits and guided tours. They are looking for ways to enhance the visitor experience. With the rise of social media and the online presence of holidays and leisure, the more bespoke and exclusive experiences are selling well. In, the team attended 15 trade shows across Europe and North America and our team are now looking to develop a brand new travel trade strategy for 2019-2020 with an even more enhanced and proactive approach towards trade which will shortly be shared with partners. 6
Visit Herts Team Update: December Digital In December, the Visit Herts website had 14,946 users visit the website and 41,814 total page views while the Visit Herts social media channels performed well during December too. On Twitter, we ended the month with 2,040 followers, we sent out 83 tweets throughout the month, and received 57,557 impressions during this period. On Instagram, we ended December with 1,428 followers and received 1,637 engagements within this period. On Facebook we ended the month with 1,305 followers/likes, posted 41, and had 35,958 impressions on these posts. Website 22,037 sessions 1.06 average dwell time 1.9 pages viewed per session Social Media Travel Trade In December, the team were busy working on the new 2019 Herts Group Travel Directory which lists the group benefits and facilities at all major attractions and partners in the county. This will be printed in January and will be distributed at all shows, meetings and appointments throughout the year that we attend. Further time was spent confirming final details for the Visit Herts stand at Excursions (January 2019), the popular group travel organiser show at Alexandra Palace. Work was also carried out on updating the travel trade database of contacts for future mailings. 2,040 followers 1,305 followers 1,428 followers 7
National context o This section of the report will aim to look at the key national level trends for from both VisitEngland and VisitBritain. It should also be noted that at the time of writing this report, the following data is the most recent data available and some of the totals for may be provisional. Domestic visitors o Looking at the volume of domestic day trips to England in, the latest results show that visits decreased by -5% to 1.4 billion compared to 2017. However, although the volume of day visits saw a reduction, the value of these visits increased by +4.0% to 53.0 billion compared to 2017. 1 Looking at domestic overnight trips to England, year to November the number of holiday trips saw a -4.0% decease versus the period the previous year. 3 Inbound visitors o With regards to figures for inbound visitors to the UK provisional figures for show that overall the volume of inbound trips to were down -4% compared to 2017 as a whole and spend saw a -7% decrease. 7 Attractions performance and optimism o To establish the performance of attractions in particular, the following findings are taken from VisitEngland s Tourism Business Monitor which is designed to monitor the performance and confidence of tourism businesses and the factors which influence them. 2 o In, 56% of visitor attractions experienced an increase in footfall, with 27% seeing a reduction and 17% remained the same. 2 o Furthermore, looking at factors that may have influenced performance, the uncertainty surrounding Brexit and exchange rates were raised by attractions. Alongside this, the very hot and poor weather was cited as a factor to have negatively impacted visitor footfall. 4 o However, overall the summer weather did have a positive impact of business performance, with 39% of attractions reporting an increase for this period. However, it should also be noted that during the same time, 28% reported a decrease in visitor footfall due to high temperatures. 5 8
National context Accommodation o According to the VisitEngland England Occupancy Survey (December ), December year to date room occupancy saw an average of 78% occupancy in and a +1% increase compared to figures seen in 2017. In addition, supply saw a +2.2% increase and demand a +4.8% increase compared to 2017. 1 o Among domestic visitors overnight trips to hotels saw the largest net increase, closely followed by caravan/camping in as a whole compared to 2017. 4 Business optimism for 2019 o The outlook among accommodation providers remain positive, with bookings for summer 2019 appearing stable, with 58% reporting the same booking levels as in. However, although the latter remains positive, just under a quarter are reporting fewer bookings than in and overall there is currently a net decline in bookings. 4 o With regards to business optimism for 2019, 53% of attractions stated they expect their performance to be better than in, with only 8% expecting a decline. Although this presents a positive outlook, optimism is at a slightly lower level than seen in previous January waves. 4 2019 inbound forecast o Finally looking at a forecast for the coming year, VisitBritain's 2019 inbound forecast predicts an increase of +3.3% in overseas visitors and a +7.8% increase in spend to 24.9bn. 6 o The forecast also highlights that in the first seven weeks of 2019, weak flight bookings from Europe have been observed, with flight bookings to the UK made through direct channels during this period being significantly down year-on-year. However, bookings from long-haul markets are in line with those seen a year earlier, but European bookings were down especially for arrival after March 29th. 6 o The forecast also highlights that overall Brexit remains a key uncertainty for 2019, as currently there is little clarity on a settlement and the forecast assumes there will be no major travel disruptions. The ongoing value of the pound also remains an uncertainty, and is currently lower than its pre-referendum value and is forecast to be weak throughout the medium term. 6 9
Visitor Attractions 10
Visitor Attractions Visitor numbers December 2017/ 2017 % change 18,284 19,905 +8.9% Performance according to attraction location December 2017/ Urban Rural Performance according to cost December 2017/ Down -17.4% Up +10.7% Charging Free Up +23.9% -6.1% 11
Visitor numbers for the year to date (YTD) Month 2017 % change for month YTD Totals 2017 YTD Totals % change for YTD January 24,139 26,057 +7.9% 24,139 26,057 +7.9% February 37,824 38,797 +2.6% 61,963 64,854 +4.6% March 68,424 67,281-1.7% 130,387 132,135 +1.3% April 98,566 103,326 +4.8% 228,953 235,461 +2.8% May 30,611 31,699 +3.6% 259,564 267,160 +3.0% June 62,257 59,488-4.4% 321,821 326,648 +1.5% July 69,658 71,451 +2.6% 391,479 398,099 +1.7% August 120,082 113,590-5.4% 511,561 511,689 OP September 54,615 65,758 +20.4% 566,176 577,447 +2% October 57,807 61,830 +7.0% 623,983 639,307 +2.5% November 19,275 23,875 +23.9% 643,258 663,182 +3.1% December 18,284 19,905 +8.9% 661,542 683,087 +3.3% December* 18,284 19,947 +9.1% 661,542 683,129 +3.3% *Please note: The figures in the blue part of the table above are the baseline for all calculations found within this report. The data reported here is strictly like for like, excluding figures for attractions that reported they were closed this month or the same month the previous year, or those attractions that have recently begun contributing and cannot provide figures for the previous year. The figures in the grey row include figures from all attractions and are included for reference only. 12
Factors influencing visitor attractions performance Origin of visitors to attractions Positive Good weather in December. Improvements to facilities positively impacted visitor numbers. During December, on average 97.6% of visitors to attractions that completed the Barometer survey were domestic, 0.4% were long haul and 2% were European. Out of all the overseas visitors, 60% of attractions reported guests from the other countries such as Australia and Canada as being their most prevalent markets. USA 20% Negative Reduced opening times compared to December 2017. Other 60% France 20% Partial closures in December due to planned renovation works. USA France Other Figure 1: Graph showing the percentage of the most prevalent overseas markets to Hertfordshire attractions in December 13
2017/ Visitor Attractions: Annual Performance Looking at as a whole, December YTD Hertfordshire attractions saw a +3.3% increase in visitor footfall compared to 2017. In terms of quarterly performance each quarter performed well, particularly in the fourth quarter, with visitor attractions seeing a +10.7% increase compared to same quarter in 2017. Q1 and Q2 saw a similar performance compared the same quarters the previous year and as seen in figure 2 below, although Q4 saw the largest increase, Q3 saw the highest visitor footfall. It should also be noted that for the annual round-up, there is a variation in sample, month to month. 300000 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 Hertfordshire attractions footfall 2017/ Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2017 In terms of the influencing factors, attractions cited the following as having positively impacted performance - targeted marketing campaigns and increased advertising, good weather, successful summer campaigns and an increase in attendance at events. When comparing these findings to the provisional national level data, Herefordshire s visitor attractions performed well (+3.3%), being above the national figures for both domestic day trips (-5%) and inbound visitors (-4%). Figure 2: Graph showing the quarterly performance of visitor attractions in Hertfordshire 2017/ 14
Serviced Accommodation 15
Serviced Accommodation: December According to figures from STR Global for 63 larger and chain hotels, accommodation providers experienced an average occupancy of 71.1% in December. Hertfordshire accommodation providers experienced an increase of +2.8% in occupancy levels compared to December 2017. Revenue per available room was up +4.5%, while the average daily rate saw an increase of +1.7% compared to December 2017. Year on year room occupancy comparison (%) Hertfordshire December December December 2017 17/18 Occupancy 69.2% 71.1% +2.8% This year so far (%) Hertfordshire Jan Feb Mar Apr May June Occupancy 64.5% 71.8% 71.7% 73.3% 76.4% 77.1% July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Occupancy 83.6% 78.2% 80.8% 81.7% 76.6% 71.1% Map showing the locations of serviced accommodation providers that contribute monthly to the Hertfordshire Business Barometer through STR Global. 16
Serviced Accommodation: December Year on year average daily rate comparison (%) Hertfordshire Year on year revenue per available room comparison (%) Hertfordshire December 2017 December 2017 December December December 17/18 ADR 64.11 65.21 +1.7% December 17/18 RevPAR 44.35 46.36 +4.5% 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 Overall Percent Change Year To Date Running 12 Months Occupancy ADR RevPAR Graph showing the overall percentage change in occupancy, average daily rate and revenue available per room both year to date and running 12 months. 17
Serviced Accommodation: Annual performance o According to figures from STR Global, for 63 larger and chain hotels in as a whole, Hertfordshire accommodation providers experienced an average occupancy of 75.4%, experiencing a sight increase of +1.4%, compared to figures seen in 2017. o The highest increase in occupancy was observed in August and October, with providers seeing an increase of +6.0% in occupancy levels in October compared to October 2017. Year on year room occupancy comparison (%) Serviced Accommodation occupancy (2017 vs. ) Hertfordshire 2017 17/18 Occupancy 74.5% 75.4% +1.4% 90.0 80.0 70.0 This year so far (%) Hertfordshire Jan Feb Mar Apr May June Occupancy 64.2% 71.4% 71.2% 72.7% 76.0% 77.4% July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Occupancy 83.3% 78.0% 80.8% 81.4% 76.6% 71.1% 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2017 Figure 3. Graph showing the occupancy of serviced accommodation providers in Hertfordshire in vs.2017 18
Serviced Accommodation: Annual performance In, average daily rate saw a +0.7% increase, compared to figures recorded in 2017, while revenue per available room saw an increase of +2.1% compared to 2017. Looking at the supply and demand for serviced accommodation providers in Hertfordshire, saw an monthly average supply of 3,043,210, a slight decrease of -0.1% compared to 2017. The level of demand for serviced accommodation in Hertfordshire registered an increase of +1.3%, when compared to 2017. Year on year average daily rate comparison (%) Hertfordshire 2017 17/18 Average monthly supply comparison (%) Hertfordshire 2017 17/18 ADR 69.09 69.59 +0.7% Supply 3,045,687 3,043,210-0.1% Year on year revenue per available room comparison (%) Hertfordshire 2017 17/18 Average monthly demand comparison (%) Hertfordshire 2017 17/18 RevPAR 51.35 52.45 +2.1% Demand 2,263,478 2,293,346 +1.3% 19
Other News 20
Other News VisitEngland GB Day visits : December GB & England Tourism Day Visits Summary The volume of day visits in Great Britain in the three months to December decreased by -5% to 417 million when compared with the same period last year The value of those visits remained static at 16.2 billion. For the calendar year, GB level volume also decreased by -5% to 1.7 billion in but the value of visits increased by +2% to 63.8 billion Looking at England, volume decreased by -6% to 351 million visits in the three months to December, but value was static at 13.3 billion compared to 2017 The calendar year volume of day visits in England decreased by -5% to 1.4 billion in. Value however increased by +4% to 53.0 billion compared to 2017 3+ Hour Day Visits Summary 3+ hour day visits in Great Britain for the three months to December decreased by -6% to 677 million compared to the same period in 2017 The value of these visits increased by +2% 23.1 billion For the calendar year, volume is down by -5% to 2.8 billion visits but value increased by +4% to 91.2 billion in In England, volume decreased by -7% to 563 million in the three months to December. The value of these visits decreased, by -3%, to 18.5 billion For the calendar year, volume of day visits in England decreased by -5% to 2.3 billion in but value increased by +5% to 75.6 billion compared to 2017 To view the full report click here 21
VisitEngland Occupancy Survey: December results Summary of Results Room occupancy in December increased by +3% to 72% whilst bedspace occupancy increased by +1% to 52% when compared to December 2017. In December there was an increase of +2.2% in room supply and an increase of +4.8% in demand when compared to the same month in 2017. RevPar, which is the total room revenue divided by the total number of available rooms, increased by +7% in December to 69.85 compared to the previous year. City/large town room occupancy increased by +3% to 74% whilst bedspace occupancy remained unchanged at 53%. Seaside room occupancy increased by +4% to 67%, whilst bedspace occupancy increased by +2% to 52%. Small town room occupancy increased by +2% to 64% whilst bedspace occupancy remained unchanged at 47%. Countryside room occupancy increased by +4% to 58% and bedspace occupancy increased by +1% to 41%. Looking at occupancy rates by establishment size, establishments with 1-25 rooms showed greatest percentage increase in room occupancy, increasing by of +5% to 67% compared to the same period last year and increasing bedspace occupancy by +2% to 50%. Establishments with 101+ rooms showed increase of +3% to 73% in room occupancy and bedspace occupancy increased by +1% to 53%. Looking at occupancy rates by region, the biggest shift came from Greater London, who increased by +5% in room occupancy and +2% in bedspace occupancy. East Midlands saw the next greatest increases, increasing by +5% for room occupancy, and increasing by +1% for bedspace occupancy compared to December 2017. To view the full report click here 22
Other News Research sources This section provides information and links to other key and research resources from both Visit Herts and external organisations. Cambridge Economic Impact study The Cambridge Economic Impact Model is an industry respected tool for measuring the economic impact of tourism in a given area. Knowing the volume and value of tourism is an essential part of developing policies for managing tourism. The most recent reports based on 2017 figures are now available on our website here Latest England research reports VisitEngland s latest trends dashboard presents the latest results from surveys and research findings and is updated on a monthly basis with annual results from key reports. Key statistics include, domestic day visits, domestic overnights visits and latest inbound visitor statistics. This can be accessed here 23
Glossary VICs- Visitor Information Centres CTR- Click through rate AVE- Advertising Value Equivalent GTOs- Group Travel Organisers DMOs- Destination Management Organisations OP- On par ADR- Average Daily rate RevPAR- Revenue per available room YTD- Year to date 24
References 1 VisitEngland () GB Day Visits December GB & England 2 VisitEngland () England Occupancy Survey December Results 3 VisitEngland (2019) Latest England Research reports: Latest Trends dashboard 4 VisitEngland () Tourism Business Monitor Wave 3 Post Christmas Full report 5 VisitEngland () Tourism Business Monitor Wave 2 Post summer holidays Full report 6 VisitBritain (2019) 2019 inbound tourism forecast 7 VisitBritain (2019) Monthly Inbound Update December 25
Business Barometer Contacts If you would like to be part of the Business Barometer, or have any questions on its content, please contact Ruby Berkeley-Cornner- ruby.berkeley-cornner@visitherts.co.uk Previous reports To view our previous Business Barometer reports and other research resources please visit- www.visitherts.co.uk Acknowledgements If you wish to use any figures or information contained within this report, please acknowledge the source as Visit Herts Business Barometer, December. Thank you. 26