Tourism Trends, Assessment and a Glimpse of UNWTO by Xu Jing, Director Regional Programme for Asia and the Pacific, UNWTO The 5th UNWTO Asia/Pacific Executive Training Programme on Tourism Policy and Strategy Bandar Seri Begawan, Brunei Darussalam 13-16 June 2011
million Inbound tourism: World 2010 International tourist arrivals, 1995-2010* 1000 935 mn 900 839 894 913 877 800 755 795 700 675 675 695 684 600 561 586 602 626 528 500 400 1995 2000 2005 2010*
International Tourism International tourist arrivals and receipts and market share (%) International Tourist Arrivals (ITA), 2010* 935 million International Tourism Receipts (ITR), 2009* US$ 852 billion Europe ITA: 473 million (50%) ITR: US$ 413 billion (49%) Americas ITA: 151 million (16%) ITR: US$ 165 billion (19%) Middle East ITA: 60 million (6%) Africa ITR: US$ 41 bn (5%) ITA: 49 million (5%) ITR: US$ 29 billion (3%) Asia and the Pacific ITA: 204 million (22%) ITR: US$ 204 billion (24%)
million Inbound tourism: Asia and the Pacific International tourist arrivals, 1995-2010* 250 204 mn 200 182 184 181 150 143 154 166 100 82 90 89 89 98 110 115 124 112 50 0 1995 2000 2005 2010*
Outlook and evaluation 2003-2011: World UNWTO Panel of Tourism Experts Better Equal Worse 175 150 125 100 75 50 25 Prospects Evaluation V-shape comparable to arrivals T1 T2T3 T1 T2T3 T1 T2T3 T1 T2T3 T1 T2T3 T1 T2T3 T1 T2T3 T1 T2T3 T1 T2T3 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
Outlook 2011
change (%) Outlook 2011: World International Tourist Arrivals Forecast 2011: 4% to 5% 12 10 8 6 8.0 10.3 5.4 5.5 6.6 6.7 4 2 0-0.1 3.0 2.1-2 -4-6 -1.6 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010* 2011* -4.0 Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
change (%) Outlook 2011: Asia and the Pacific International Tourist Arrivals Forecast 2011: 7% to 9% 30 27.1 25 20 15 10 5 12.1 4.7 7.7 7.6 8.0 9.7 1.1 12.6 0-5 -1.7-10 -15-9.5 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010* 2011* Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
International tourism 2011 Forecast 2010 Forecast 2011 World +6.7% 4% to 5% Europe +3.4% 2% to 4% Asia and the Pacific +12.6% 7% to 9% Americas +7.0% 4% to 6% Africa +6.4% 4% to 7% Middle East +14.0% 7% to 10% Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
Long term trend
million Growth: driven by emerging destinations 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 International tourist arrivals by country of destination advanced economies emerging economies 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010* Source: World Tourism Organization
share (%) Growth: driven by emerging destinations (share) 100 International tourist arrivals by country of destination 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 advanced economies emerging economies 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010* Source: World Tourism Organization
2000-2010: average annual growth rate International tourist arrivals (% a year 2000-2010) 10 9 9.2 8 7 6 6.8 6.7 6.4 6.2 6.2 6.1 5 4.5 4 3 2 1 3.3 3.1 2.5 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.1 0.8 0 Source: UNWTO Middle East South-East Asia North-East Asia Subsaharan Africa Central America North Africa South Asia South America World Central/Eastern Eu. Southern/Mediter. Eu. Northern Europe Oceania Caribbean Western Europe North America
million Actual Trend vs. Tourism 2020 Vision Forecast World 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 International Tourist Arrivals 534 mn Tourism 2020 Vision forecast Actual 1995-2010* 1.0 bn 877 mn 1.6 bn 935 mn 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
million Actual Trend vs. Tourism 2020 Vision Asia and the Pacific Forecast 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 International Tourist Arrivals 82 mn Tourism 2020 Vision forecast Actual 1995-2010* 204 mn 197 mn 400 mn 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
Assessment of Asia Tourism Asia is leading the recovery process Europe is 3 % in growth for 2010
Assessment of Asia Tourism Asia excels in many qualitative aspects Professional Marketing
Assessment of Asia Tourism Asia excels in many qualitative aspects Infrastructure development
Assessment of Asia Tourism Asia excels in many qualitative aspects Product development and diversification
Assessment of Asia Tourism Asia excels in many qualitative aspects Good governance and policy readjustment
Assessment of Asia Tourism Asia excels in many qualitative aspects Public awareness raising
Assessment of Asia Tourism Asia excels in many qualitative aspects Innovative approach
Assessment of Asia Tourism Centre of gravity Wolrd s best
Assessment of Asia Tourism Room to improve Managing growth Individual beauty v.s. collective championship
Assessment of Asia Tourism Way Forward
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