23 September 2016 North American Research Heard on the Strip G2E 2016 starts on Monday: If you are making last minute plans, make sure to contact us about possible availability Mohegan Sun announces major recapitalization plan ERI announces $1.7bn deal to acquire ISLE Revel looking to reopen in 1Q17 under new name Polling looks unfavorable for North Jersey casinos Twin River ramping efforts To promote Tiverton casino Sands Bethlehem looking to expand Mississippi GGR down in August, Gulf Coast up Industry Update HOTS: Mohegan Announces Refinancing, Sands PA Plans Expansion, Revel to Reopen Mohegan Sun Announces Recapitalization Plans. Earlier this week, the Mohegan Tribal Gaming Authority (MTGA), owner and operator of the Mohegan Sun Casino in Connecticut and Mohegan Sun Pocono, announced plans for a major recapitalization of its balance sheet. The Authority is looking to arrange a new $1.4B senior secured credit facility, including a revolver, term loan A and term loan B that will be used to refinance its existing credit facility and to fund a cash tender offer to purchase any and all of the Authority s existing 9.75% Senior Unsecured Notes due 2021 and 11% Senior Subordinated Notes due 2018. At the end of the Authority s fiscal 3Q16 ended June 30, total leverage was 4.78x and net leverage was 4.41x, marking the lowest leverage ratio the Authority has seen in nearly eight years. ERI to Acquire ISLE in $1.7bn Deal - Regional M&A Remains Red Hot. Eldorado Resorts Inc (ERI, not rated) announced this morning that it has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Isle of Capri Casinos Inc (ISLE, not rated) in a $1.7bn deal, valuing ISLE at 8.8x LTM Adjusted EBITDA of $194m and about 8.5x forward EBITDA. ERI is projecting $35m of synergies in year one, resulting in a net purchase price multiple of 7.4x. On an LTM basis, combined company revenue would be $1.75bn and Adjusted EBITDA would be $396m, inclusive of synergies. Assuming an 8.0x multiple, we estimate a TEV of $3.25bn. After accounting for pro forma net debt of $2.1bn, we estimate an equity value market cap of $1.15bn, which would make ERI the second largest regional gaming company in terms of market cap behind BYD. The combined company will own 20 casinos with 20,800 slot machines, 560 table games and 6,500 hotels rooms in 10 different states with no single property accounting for more than 15% of EBITDA. Revel Being Renamed, Poised to Re-Open in 1Q17. Revel Atlantic City s new owner, Glen Straub, is proposing to re-open the casino early next year under a new name, Ten, which is based on 10 being the highest number or benchmark of quality. Straub is also rehiring Alan Greenstein, former CFO of Revel, to take over the same job of the rebranded property. Mississippi GGR Down in August, Gulf Coast Up. The trend continues in Mississippi with divergent performance between River County casinos and Gulf Coast casinos. Statewide, GGR was down about 1% in August, including a 4% decline in casinos located in River Counties and a 1% gain across Gulf Coast casinos. This marks the seventh out of eight months this year the state s Gulf Coast casinos posted positive y/y gains in gaming revenue. Meanwhile, casinos along the Mississippi River have reported only two months of positive y/y gains this year. Analysts John DeCree Tel: 702-691-3213 john.decree@uniongaming.com *Please see analyst certification and required disclosures starting on page 8 of this report. 2016 Union Gaming. All rights reserved. No part of this report may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying or by any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from Union Gaming.
Figure 1. Global Gaming Valuation Comparison 09/22/16 LTM Current 52 Week Dividend Market Enterprise Stock Price Adjusted EBITDA EV/ EBITDA Adjusted EPS P/E Net Debt Net Debt/EBITDA Company Ticker Price Low High Yield Cap Value Rating Target 2014A 2015A 2016E 2017E 2014A 2015A 2016E 2017E 2014A 2015A 2016E 2017E 2014A 2015A 2016E 2017E 2014A 2015A 2016E 2017E 2014A 2015A 2016E 2017E NORTH AMERICA GAMING Las Vegas Sands Corp. LVS $57.20 $34.88 $58.65 4.9% $45,460 $54,649 Buy $55.00 $5,248 $3,994 $3,687 $4,336 10.4x 13.7x 14.8x 12.6x $3.57 $2.55 $2.15 $2.70 16.0x 22.4x 26.6x 21.2x $6,480 $6,167 $7,367 $6,984 1.2x 1.5x 2.0x 1.6x MGM Resorts International MGM $25.70 $16.18 $25.85 0.0% $14,536 $28,531 Buy $32.00 $2,184 $2,013 $2,273 $2,936 13.1x 14.2x 12.6x 9.7x $0.24 ($1.85) $1.90 $1.71 NM NM 13.5x 15.0x $11,875 $11,184 $11,877 $11,657 5.4x 5.6x 5.2x 4.0x Wynn Resorts Ltd WYNN $102.45 $49.95 $109.50 2.0% $10,428 $17,853 Hold $100.00 $1,661 $1,110 $1,203 $1,648 10.7x 16.1x 14.8x 10.8x $7.58 $1.45 $4.45 $7.32 13.5x NM 23.0x 14.0x $4,923 $7,017 $7,892 $8,181 3.0x 6.3x 6.6x 5.0x Caesars Entertainment Corp. CZR $9.52 $5.39 $10.84 0.0% $1,398 $7,940 Not Rated NR $1,693 $1,304 $1,653 $1,801 4.7x 6.1x 4.8x 4.4x NM NM NM NM $20,331 $5,567 $9,891 $9,568 15.6x 4.3x 6.0x 5.3x Caesars Acquisition Co. CACQ $12.78 $4.48 $12.93 0.0% $1,756 $1,738 Not Rated NR Sector Average 9.7x 12.5x 11.8x 9.4x 14.8x 22.4x 21.1x 16.7x 3.2x 4.5x 4.6x 3.5x MACAU GAMING (Big 6) Galaxy Entertainment (HK $) 27-HKG $29.65 $19.02 $30.80 1.0% $126,572 $118,330 Buy $33 $13,250 $8,736 $9,183 $9,023 8.9x 13.5x 12.9x 13.1x $2.41 $0.97 $1.27 $1.34 12.3x 30.5x 23.3x 22.1x ($8,971) ($7,648) ($11,831) ($17,593) (0.7x) (0.9x) (1.3x) -1.9x Melco Crown Entertainment MPEL $15.65 $11.91 $20.23 4.5% $8,508 $11,103 Hold $15 $1,166 $816 $891 $906 9.5x 13.6x 12.5x 12.3x $1.19 $0.44 $0.30 $0.35 13.2x 35.6x NM 44.5x $2,305 $2,212 $2,415 $2,163 2.0x 2.7x 2.7x 2.4x Sands China Ltd. (HK $) 1928-HKG $33.70 $20.75 $36.75 5.9% $271,966 $300,868 Buy $39 $24,937 $16,960 $16,173 $19,180 12.1x 17.7x 18.6x 15.7x $2.45 $1.56 $1.49 $1.77 13.8x 21.6x 22.7x 19.0x $5,246 $17,728 $28,045 $29,461 0.2x 1.0x 1.7x 1.5x SJM Holdings Ltd. (HK $) 880-HKG $5.69 $4.40 $6.92 3.7% $32,189 $19,262 Hold $6 $7,985 $3,862 $3,136 $2,748 2.4x 5.0x 6.1x 7.0x $1.21 $0.44 $0.40 $0.21 4.7x 13.1x 14.3x 27.7x ($22,815) ($16,603) ($7,219) $5,596 (2.9x) (4.3x) (2.3x) 2.0x Wynn Macau Ltd. (HK $) 1128-HKG $13.48 $6.84 $14.18 4.5% $70,036 $99,579 Hold $13 $8,613 $4,753 $5,409 $8,140 11.6x 20.9x 18.4x 12.2x $1.36 $0.51 $0.52 $0.78 9.9x 26.6x 25.9x 17.2x $4,184 $14,833 $15,903 $25,289 0.5x 3.1x 2.9x 3.1x MGM China Holdings Ltd (HK$) 2282-HKG $13.50 $7.83 $13.88 1.6% $51,300 $60,607 Buy $13 $6,663 $4,338 $3,580 $4,600 9.1x 14.0x 16.9x 13.2x $1.50 $0.82 $0.58 $0.55 9.0x 16.5x 23.4x 24.3x ($114) $6,697 $14,146 $15,245 (0.0x) 1.5x 4.0x 3.3x Sector Average (Big 6) 8.9x 14.1x 14.2x 12.2x 10.5x 24.0x 21.9x 25.8x (0.1x) 0.5x 1.3x 1.7x ASIA PACIFIC REGIONAL GAMING (local currency) 13 Holdings Ltd. (HK$) 577-HKG $2.98 $1.86 $3.28 0.0% $2,744 $7,420 Buy $3 $1,027 7.2x $0.30 9.8x Macau Legend Development (HK$) 1680-HKG $1.47 $0.89 $1.58 0.0% $9,253 $11,374 Not Rated NR $807 $269 $160 $429 14.1x 42.3x NM 26.5x $0.08 ($0.03) ($0.05) ($0.02) 19.6x NM NM ($321) $336 $2,629 (0.4x) 1.2x 16.5x 0.0x Paradise Entertainment (HK$) 1180-HKG $1.32 $1.00 $1.53 0.0% $1,389 $1,198 Not Rated NR $203 $48 5.9x 25.0x $0.09 ($0.09) 15.0x NM Nagacorp Ltd. (HK$) 3918-HKG $5.25 $3.85 $6.14 6.9% $12,915 $12,166 Buy $6.50 $1,365 $1,772 $1,874 $2,199 8.9x 6.9x 6.5x 5.5x $0.46 $0.59 $0.59 $0.57 11.4x 8.9x 8.9x 9.2x $0 $0 $0 $0 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x Genting Singapore (S$) G13-SES $0.75 $0.66 $0.89 2.0% $9,001 $7,884 Hold $0.70 $1,188 $817 $716 $891 6.6x 9.7x 11.0x 8.8x $0.04 $0.01 $0.02 $0.03 17.7x NM 43.1x 25.6x ($2,400) ($2,844) ($3,489) ($3,712) (2.0x) (3.5x) (4.9x) -4.2x Genting Malaysia 4715-KLS $4.57 $3.85 $4.71 1.6% $25,912 $25,556 Not Rated NR $2,232 $2,249 $2,511 $3,019 11.5x 11.4x 10.2x 8.5x $0.22 $0.22 $0.23 $0.28 21.2x 20.5x 19.5x 16.2x ($1,961) ($451) $366 $655 (0.9x) (0.2x) 0.1x 0.2x Traveller International Hotel Group RWM-PHS $3.38 $3.18 $5.00 1.5% $53,255 $65,276 Not Rated NR $8,820 $6,850 $6,429 $6,611 7.4x 9.5x 10.2x 9.9x $0.35 $0.26 $0.24 $0.23 9.7x 13.1x 14.1x 14.6x ($4,453) $1,338 $5,574 $13,033 (0.5x) 0.2x 0.9x 2.0x Bloomberry Resorts Corporation BLOOM-PHS $5.39 $3.05 $7.00 0.0% $59,299 $81,385 Not Rated NR $10,051 $5,142 $9,551 $9,809 8.1x 15.8x 8.5x 8.3x $0.38 ($0.31) $0.06 $0.13 14.2x NM NM 41.2x $15,349 $21,934 $17,702 $15,818 1.5x 4.3x 1.9x 1.6x Melco Crown Philippines MCP-PHS $4.56 $1.15 $5.13 0.0% $25,816 $47,493 Not Rated NR ($3,414) ($614) $4,460 $5,142 NM NM 10.6x 9.2x ($1.28) ($1.56) ($0.61) ($0.48) NM NM NM NM $13,888 $12,787 $18,479 $16,500 (4.1x) (20.8x) 4.1x 3.2x Donaco International Ltd DNA-ASX $0.43 $0.37 $0.88 0.0% $357 $435 Not Rated NR $11 $12 $90 $105 39.2x 37.3x 4.9x 4.2x $0.02 $0.01 $0.09 $0.09 19.4x 32.2x 4.6x 5.0x ($92) ($194) $77 $2 (8.3x) (16.6x) 0.9x 0.0x Sector Average (regional) 12.7x 19.7x 8.8x 9.8x 16.0x 18.7x 18.1x 17.4x (2.0x) (5.2x) 0.4x 0.4x US REGIONAL GAMING Boyd Gaming Corp. BYD $19.16 $14.22 $21.43 0.0% $2,151 $5,213 Buy $24 $467 $527 $549 $618 11.2x 9.9x 9.5x 8.4x ($0.04) $0.79 $0.80 $1.11 NM 24.1x 23.9x 17.3x $3,336 $3,164 $3,037 $2,795 7.1x 6.0x 5.5x 4.5x Pinnacle Entertainment Inc. PNK $12.43 $9.72 $12.62 0.0% $669 $4,518 Buy $14 $585 $617 $651 $692 7.7x 7.3x 6.9x 6.5x $0.73 $0.78 ($6.82) $1.33 17.0x 16.0x NM 9.3x $3,789 $3,636 $3,955 $3,760 6.5x 5.9x 6.1x 5.4x Penn National Gaming Inc. PENN $13.16 $12.50 $19.05 0.0% $1,097 $6,189 Hold $18 $707 $796 $844 $851 8.8x 7.8x 7.3x 7.3x ($3.29) $0.01 $1.11 $1.17 NM NM 11.8x 11.2x $4,605 $4,861 $4,885 $4,629 6.5x 6.1x 5.8x 5.4x Golden Entertainment, Inc. GDEN $12.92 $8.72 $14.07 13.2% $287 $411 Buy $16 $40 $50 $57 10.2x 8.3x 7.2x $1.43 $0.53 $0.84 9.0x 24.2x 15.4x $139 $169 $169 3.5x 3.4x 2.9x Monarch Casino & Resort MCRI $23.82 $16.72 $24.50 0.0% $412 $434 Not Rated NR $43 $50 $53 $57 10.2x 8.8x 8.2x 7.6x $0.83 $1.19 $1.30 $1.38 28.7x 20.0x 18.3x 17.2x $26 $21 $52 $127 0.6x 0.4x 1.0x 2.2x Churchill Downs Inc CHDN $149.35 $118.76 $152.98 0.8% $2,478 $3,378 Not Rated NR $202 $337 $346 $379 16.7x 10.0x 9.8x 8.9x $2.64 $3.71 $5.94 $7.12 NM 40.3x 25.1x 21.0x $702 $697 $798 $685 3.5x 2.1x 2.3x 1.8x Isle of Capri Casinos Inc ISLE $22.76 $10.62 $23.32 0.0% $940 $1,781 Not Rated NR $200 $212 $203 $206 8.9x 8.4x 8.8x 8.6x $0.76 $1.26 $1.24 $1.44 29.9x 18.1x 18.3x 15.8x $919 $849 $741 $598 4.6x 4.0x 3.7x 2.9x Eldorado Resorts Inc ERI $14.64 $8.47 $15.60 0.0% $689 $1,452 Not Rated NR $109 $132 $173 $191 13.3x 11.0x 8.4x 7.6x ($0.48) $2.43 $0.74 $1.07 NM 6.0x 19.7x 13.7x $691 $783 $736 $625 6.3x 5.9x 4.2x 3.3x Full House Resorts, Inc. FLL $1.82 $1.18 $2.08 0.0% $35 $117 Not Rated NR $11 $14 $18 $22 11.0x 8.4x 6.5x 5.4x ($0.24) ($0.07) ($0.14) ($0.01) NM NM NM NM $47 $60 $79 $72 4.4x 4.3x 4.4x 3.3x Tropicana Entertainment Inc TPCA $21.05 $14.80 $21.40 0.0% $549 $593 Not Rated NR Sector Average 11.0x 9.1x 8.2x 7.5x 25.2x 19.1x 20.2x 15.1x 4.9x 4.2x 4.0x 3.5x Casino REITs Gaming & Leisure Properties, Inc. GLPI $33.98 $24.21 $35.98 6.7% $6,970 $11,470 Hold $38 $422 $440 $709 $858 27.1x 26.1x 16.2x 13.4x $1.10 $1.08 $1.55 $1.92 30.9x 31.5x 21.9x 17.7x $2,572 $2,498 $4,515 $4,486 6.1x 5.7x 6.4x 5.2x MGM Growth Properties LLC MGP $26.34 $21.75 $27.89 5.7% $1,515 $9,811 Buy $29 $562 $646 17.5x 15.2x $1.03 $1.22 25.5x 21.6x $3,558 $3,515 6.3x 5.4x GAMING EQUIPMENT AND TECHNOLOGY International Game Technology IGT $24.45 $12.48 $24.74 3.3% $4,915 $12,758 Buy $24 $1,944 $1,705 $1,788 $1,823 6.6x 7.5x 7.1x 7.0x $0.00 $1.59 $1.30 $0.80 NA 15.4x 18.8x 30.4x $0 $7,724 $7,846 $7,655 0.0x 4.5x 4.4x 4.2x Scientific Games Corp SGMS $11.11 $4.56 $12.83 0.0% $972 $8,961 Hold $10.5 $550 $1,075 $1,074 $1,138 16.3x 8.3x 8.3x 7.9x ($2.85) ($11.56) ($3.36) ($2.45) NM NM NM NM $8,294 $8,226 $8,017 $7,725 15.1x 7.7x 7.5x 6.8x Everi Holdings, Inc. EVRI $2.33 $1.13 $5.43 0.0% $154 $1,192 Not Rated NR $80 $200 $198 $207 15.0x 5.9x 6.0x 5.8x $0.88 $0.80 ($0.63) ($0.56) 2.6x 2.9x NM NM $1,099 $1,094 $1,147 $1,155 13.8x 5.5x 5.8x 5.6x Amaya Gaming Group Inc. AYA-TSX $20.59 $13.71 $32.99 0.0% $2,983 $7,742 Not Rated NR $309 $587 $666 $734 25.1x 13.2x 11.6x 10.5x $0.70 $1.76 $2.22 $2.45 29.4x 11.7x 9.3x 8.4x $2,993 $2,993 $2,451 $2,476 9.7x 5.1x 3.7x 3.4x Ainsworth Game Technology Limited AGI-ASX $2.29 $1.85 $3.24 2.2% $750 $790 Not Rated NR $89 $83 $94 $109 8.9x 9.5x 8.4x 7.3x $0.19 $0.16 $0.16 $0.19 12.1x 14.4x 14.3x 12.3x ($32) ($32) $41 $42 (0.4x) (0.4x) 0.4x 0.4x Aristocrat Leisure ALL-ASX $15.59 $8.09 $16.20 1.2% $9,933 $11,155 Not Rated NR $209 $523 $764 $859 NM 21.3x 14.6x 13.0x $0.21 $0.37 $0.59 $0.69 NM 42.0x 26.4x 22.6x ($171) $1,453 $1,221 $1,010 (0.8x) 2.8x 1.6x 1.2x Sector Average 14.4x 10.6x 9.1x 8.6x 14.7x 22.7x 18.3x 18.4x 6.2x 3.4x 3.1x 3.6x INDUSTRY AVERAGE 11.0x 11.6x 10.8x 9.4x 3.6x 3.2x 3.3x 3.1x Source: Company documents, FactSet, Union Gaming Securities. 2
Mohegan Sun Announces Recapitalization Plans Earlier this week, the Mohegan Tribal Gaming Authority (MTGA), owner and operator of the Mohegan Sun Casino in Connecticut and Mohegan Sun Pocono, announced plans for a major recapitalization of its balance sheet that we expect will result in substantial interest savings. The Authority is looking to arrange a new $1.4B senior secured credit facility, including a revolver, term loan A and term loan B that will be used to refinance its existing credit facility and to fund a cash tender offer to purchase any and all of the Authority s existing 9.75% Senior Unsecured Notes due 2021 and 11% Senior Subordinated Notes due 2018. Holders of the 2021 notes are being offered a price of $1,048.75 per $1,000 face plus an early tender payment of $30 per $1,000. Holders of the 2018 notes are being offered $976.50 per $1,000 plus an early tender payment of $30 per $1,000 bringing the total consideration up to $1,006.5 per $1,000. The early tender deadline will be 5:00 PM ET on September 30. At the end of the Authority s fiscal 3Q16 ended June 30, total leverage was 4.78x and net leverage was 4.41x, marking the lowest leverage ratio the Authority has seen in nearly eight years. ERI to Acquire ISLE in $1.7bn Deal - Regional M&A Remains Red Hot Eldorado Resorts Inc (ERI, not rated) announced this morning that it has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Isle of Capri Casinos Inc (ISLE, not rated) in a $1.7bn deal, valuing ISLE at 8.8x LTM Adjusted EBITDA of $194m and about 8.5x forward EBITDA. ERI is projecting $35m of synergies in year 1, resulting in a net purchase price multiple of 7.4x. ERI to become 2nd largest regional gaming company (in terms of market cap). On an LTM basis, combined company revenue would be $1.75bn and Adjusted EBITDA would be $396m, inclusive of synergies. Assuming an 8.0x multiple, we estimate a TEV of $3.25bn. After accounting for pro forma net debt of $2.1bn, we estimate an equity value market cap of $1.15bn, which would make ERI the second largest regional gaming company in terms of market cap behind BYD. The combined company will own 20 casinos with 20,800 slot machines, 560 table games and 6,500 hotels rooms in 10 different states with no single property accounting for more than 15% of EBITDA. Transaction details. The transaction will be funded 58% in cash ($23 per ISLE share) and 42% in stock with an exchange ratio of 1.638 shares of ERI per share of ISLE. ERI shareholders will own 62% of the combined company and ISLE shareholders will own 38%. ERI has financing commitments for $2.2bn of debt capital to facilitate the transaction, including refinancing existing amounts. Net leverage of the combined company is expected to be 5.1x following the transaction. The transaction is subject to approval in all ten jurisdictions the combined company will operate as well as shareholder approval. However, shareholders representing 24% of ERI stock and 35% of ISLE stock have already agreed to support the transaction. Regional gaming M&A remains red hot. The ERI/ISLE deal is the latest in a spat of regional gaming M&A activity over the last twelve months as market conditions remain favorable with continued low interest rates, liquid credit markets, and two gaming REITs in the space that have upped the ante. While the formation of gaming REITs had left many industry observers speculating strategic M&A in the regional gaming space would be over, the ERI/ISLE deal is yet another example that the industry is large enough for both strategic and financial players. We see more regional gaming consolidation ahead as long as credit markets remain attractive, as we expect they will. Greater scale to facilitate multiple expansion. Looking ahead, we expect ERI will remain committed to growth via M&A as they have done in the past, but given the pro forma scale and size of the combined company, we have to imagine ERI will be on the radar of gaming REITs. At the very least, we believe the expanded scale of ERI will help drive multiple expansion going forward. Revel Being Renamed, Poised to Re-Open in 1Q17 Revel Atlantic City s new owner, Glen Straub, is proposing to re-open the casino early next year under a new name, Ten, which is based on 10 being the highest number or benchmark of quality. Straub is also rehiring Alan Greenstein, former CFO of Revel, to take over the same job of the rebranded property. In a press release, Greenstein said he knows what works and what did not and sees an opportunity to get Revel right this time. 3
Straub purchased Revel out of its second tour through bankruptcy for $82MM. He originally had planned to re-open the property in July 2016 but was unable to procure all of the licenses that quickly. Straub is still waiting on approval from the Casino Reinvestment Development Authority and a city certificate of occupancy. Polling Suggests North Jersey Casinos Unlikely To Be Approved In a recent poll released by Rutgers-Eagleton, only 40% of voters participating said they support a casino in New Jersey outside of Atlantic City. About 50% of respondents said casinos should only be located in Atlantic City, with the balance either unsure or opposing casinos all together. The recent poll suggests dwindling support for a North Jersey casino, with 44% of respondents likely supporting the initiative when asked back in March. This trend is consistent with media reports and several other polls that continue to indicate the majority of NJ voters are unlikely to support authorizing casinos outside of Atlantic City this November. Twin River Ramping Efforts To Promote Tiverton Casino Twin River Management Group is ramping up its efforts to gain support for its proposal to build a new casino in Tiverton, RI. The company opened an office this week in the Town of Tiverton, which is located just minutes from the Massachusetts border. The opening of the new office gives the company a presence in the town, allowing residents to ask questions ahead of the November ballot when they will be asked whether to approve a $75MM casino in their town. The casino would be subject to a 15.5% tax on table games and a 61% tax on slot machines with the town of Tiverton guaranteed a minimum of $3MM per year. Sands Bethlehem Looking to Expand This week reports surfaced that Sands Bethlehem has filed plans with the local Department of Community and Economic Development for a $40MM expansion that would include a new poker room, restaurants and additional table game space. Plans filed with the city include a multi-level, 100,000 sqft expansion, including over 35,000 sqft of additional gaming space. The project would likely still need approval from the PA Gaming Control Board, especially if the property looks to add more than the 250 table games currently allowed. According to recent state gaming reports, Sands Bethlehem is operating 237 table games, with optionality to add 13 more under the current maximum of 250 allowed. The relocation of the existing poker room would free up valuable prime casino real estate for at least 13 more table games. Mississippi GGR Down in August, Gulf Coast Up The trend continues in Mississippi with divergent performance between River County casinos and Gulf Coast casinos. Statewide, GGR was down about 1% in August, including a 4% decline in casinos located in River Counties and a 1% gain across Gulf Coast casinos. This marks the seventh out of eight months this year the state s Gulf Coast casinos posted positive y/y gains in gaming revenue. Meanwhile, casinos along the Mississippi River have reported only two months of positive y/y gains this year. 4
G2E 2016 Meeting Schedule Listed below is Union Gaming s 2016 G2E meeting line up. If you would like to join any of the meeting sessions, please submit your request to john.decree@uniongaming.com. Monday - September 26 12:00pm: Lunch with Inspired Entertainment Inc (HDRA) 3:30pm: MGM Growth Properties (MGP) Tuesday - September 27 8:30am: Penn National Gaming (PENN) 10:00am: MGM Resorts International (MGM) 11:30am: Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc (MCRI) 12:00pm: Lunch with International Game Technology (IGT) 2:00pm: Everi Holdings, Inc. (EVRI) 3:00pm: Scientific Games Corporation (SGMS) 5:00pm: Eldorado Resorts Inc (ERI) Wednesday - September 28 8:00am: Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI-ASX) 10:30am: Pinnacle Entertainment (PNK) 11:30am: Aristocrat Leisure Limited (ALL-ASX) 2:00pm: Golden Entertainment, Inc (GDEN) 5
Figure 2. Global Gaming Stock Price Performance Current Last Week Weekly Weekly YTD 52wk 52wk SECTOR/company Price Price Change % Change % Change Low High GLOBAL CASINO OPERATORS Las Vegas Sands Corp. 56.76 58.31 (1.55) (2.7%) 29.5% 34.88 58.65 Wynn Resorts, Limited 103.00 107.25 (4.25) (4.0%) 48.9% 49.95 109.50 MGM Resorts International 25.08 25.22 (0.14) (0.6%) 10.4% 16.18 25.72 Sector average (2.4%) 29.6% MACAU CASINO OPERATORS (BIG 6) Sands China Ltd. 34.25 34.15 0.10 0.3% 29.0% 20.75 36.75 Wynn Macau Ltd. 13.70 13.22 0.48 3.6% 58.8% 6.51 14.18 MGM China Holdings Limited 13.56 12.68 0.88 6.9% 39.8% 7.83 13.88 SJM Holdings Limited 5.80 5.32 0.48 9.0% 4.9% 4.40 6.92 Galaxy Entertainment Group Limited 29.65 28.60 1.05 3.7% 21.3% 19.02 30.80 Melco Crown Entertainment Limited Sponsored ADR 15.48 15.97 (0.49) (3.1%) (7.9%) 11.91 20.23 Sector average 3.4% 24.3% US REGIONAL GAMING Boyd Gaming Corporation 18.74 18.69 0.05 0.3% (5.7%) 14.22 21.43 Red Rock Resorts, Inc. 21.98 21.05 0.93 4.4% 18.25 23.87 Penn National Gaming, Inc. 12.86 13.13 (0.27) (2.1%) (19.7%) 12.50 19.05 Pinnacle Entertainment, Inc. 12.01 11.16 0.85 7.6% 9.72 12.62 Churchill Downs Incorporated 148.44 148.21 0.23 0.2% 4.9% 118.76 152.98 Isle of Capri Casinos, Inc. 23.08 16.81 6.27 37.3% 65.7% 10.62 23.32 Caesars Entertainment Corporation 8.10 6.77 1.33 19.6% 2.7% 5.39 9.64 Caesars Acquisition Co. Class A 12.00 11.03 0.97 8.8% 76.2% 4.48 12.93 Sector average 9.5% 20.7% ASIAN PACIFIC GAMING Crown Resorts Limited 13.53 13.16 0.37 2.8% 8.2% 9.80 14.06 SKYCITY Entertainment Group Limited 4.59 4.49 0.10 2.2% 4.8% 3.68 5.19 Genting Singapore Plc 0.75 0.73 0.02 2.1% (3.2%) 0.66 0.89 Macau Legend Development Ltd. 1.51 1.19 0.32 26.9% 49.5% 0.89 1.58 NagaCorp Ltd. 5.31 5.19 0.12 2.3% 8.4% 3.81 6.14 13 Holdings Ltd. 3.00 2.95 0.05 1.7% 42.2% 1.86 3.28 Melco Crown (Philippines) Resorts Corp. 4.55 4.01 0.54 13.5% 98.7% 1.15 5.36 Bloomberry Resorts Corporation 5.52 5.20 0.32 6.2% 21.6% 2.90 7.00 Paradise Co., Ltd 16,100 15,900 200 1.3% (8.8%) 13,650 23,650 Kangwon Land, Inc. 39,500 38,450 1,050 2.7% 2.9% 36,900 44,600 Sector average 6.2% 22.4% GAMING EQUIPMENT AND TECHNOLOGY International Game Technology PLC 24.21 23.52 0.69 2.9% 49.6% 12.48 24.74 Scientific Games Corporation Class A 10.93 10.28 0.65 6.3% 21.9% 4.56 12.83 Aristocrat Leisure Limited 15.68 14.91 0.77 5.2% 53.6% 8.09 16.20 Ainsworth Game Technology Limited 2.29 2.20 0.09 4.1% 0.0% 1.77 3.24 Konami Holdings 3,800.00 3,825.00 (25.00) (0.7%) 31.6% 2,468 4,520 Everi Holdings, Inc. 2.28 2.18 0.10 4.6% (48.1%) 1.13 5.45 Sector average 3.7% 18.1% SMALL/MICRO CAP GAMING Tropicana Entertainment Inc. 21.00 19.39 1.61 8.3% 21.7% 14.80 21.40 Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. 23.74 22.41 1.33 5.9% 4.5% 16.72 24.50 Empire Resorts, Inc. 17.92 16.85 1.07 6.4% (0.4%) 11.38 26.35 Full House Resorts, Inc. 1.79 1.79 0.00 0.0% 7.2% 1.18 2.08 Sector average 5.1% 8.2% BENCHMARKS AND INDICIES S&P 500 (Operating Basis) 2,163 2,126 37 1.8% 5.8% 1,810 2,194 S&P 500 / Casinos & Gaming -SUB 760 792 (31) (4.0%) 48.9% 380 802 NASDAQ Composite Index 5,295 5,174 121 2.3% 5.7% 4,210 5,299 DJ Industrial Average 18,294 18,035 259 1.4% 5.0% 15,451 18,668 Hang Seng Index 23,670 23,191 479 2.1% 8.0% 18,279 24,364 Sector average 0.7% 14.7% Source: Company documents, FactSet, Union Gaming Securities. As of 9/22/16. 6
Figure 3. Gaming Credits Relative Value Date Amount Current Last 7day 52wk 52wk Current Current Current ISSUER / Issue Issued Outstanding Price Week Change Low High YTW YTM STW MGM RESORTS INTERNATIONAL MGM Resorts International 11.375% 01-MAR-2018 09/22/2010 $475 112.375 112.125 0.250 112.000 118.650 2.60% 2.60% 193 MGM Resorts International 5.25% 31-MAR-2020 12/19/2013 $500 106.250 105.688 0.562 96.344 107.813 3.35% 3.35% 238 MGM Resorts International 6.75% 01-OCT-2020 06/03/2013 $1,000 111.125 110.250 0.875 100.250 112.200 3.75% 3.75% 271 MGM Resorts International 6.625% 15-DEC-2021 12/20/2012 $1,250 111.125 111.250 (0.125) 99.500 112.700 4.23% 4.23% 302 MGM Resorts International 7.75% 15-MAR-2022 03/22/2012 $1,000 114.750 114.500 0.250 102.500 117.500 4.67% 4.67% 343 MGM Resorts International 6.0% 15-MAR-2023 11/25/2014 $1,250 106.625 107.000 (0.375) 94.250 111.250 4.80% 4.80% 341 CAESARS ENTERTAINMENT OPERATING CO 1st Lien Secured Caesars Entertainment Operating Co., Inc. 9.0% 15-FEB-2020 08/01/2013 $1,500 98.500 98.250 0.250 73.000 102.000 NA NA NA Caesars Entertainment Operating Co., Inc. 8.5% 15-FEB-2020 12/07/2012 $1,250 99.750 98.500 1.250 74.000 101.500 NA NA NA Caesars Entertainment Operating Co., Inc. 11.25% 01-JUN-2017 01/21/2010 $2,095 98.750 98.500 0.250 70.500 102.000 NA NA NA 2nd Lien Secured Caesars Entertainment Operating Co., Inc. 10.0% 15-DEC-2018 01/21/2010 $3,312 55.750 52.500 3.250 27.000 59.000 NA NA NA Caesars Entertainment Operating Co., Inc. 12.75% 15-APR-2018 04/29/2011 $750 55.000 53.250 1.750 27.500 59.500 NA NA NA Unsecured Caesars Entertainment Operating Co., Inc. 5.75% 01-OCT-2017 12/16/2005 $104 40.000 40.000 0.000 32.000 50.000 NA NA NA Caesars Entertainment Operating Co., Inc. 6.5% 01-JUN-2016 06/09/2006 $234 44.000 44.250 (0.250) 31.250 50.000 NA NA NA Subsidiary secured Chester Downs & Marina LLC 9.25% 01-FEB-2020 02/03/2012 $330 91.000 92.000 (1.000) 67.250 93.000 NA NA NA Caesars Entertainment Operating Co., Inc. 10.75% 01-FEB-2016 02/06/2009 $479 67.500 67.000 0.500 25.000 73.500 NA NA NA CAESARS ENTERTAINMENT RESORT PROPERTIES Caesars Entertainment Resort Properties LLC 8.0% 01-OCT-2020 03/13/2015 $999 100.900 101.500 (0.600) 89.500 103.625 7.51% 7.73% 673 Caesars Entertainment Resort Properties LLC 11.0% 01-OCT-2021 03/13/2015 $1,150 102.000 102.500 (0.500) 80.125 104.500 10.21% 10.47% 931 CAESARS GROWTH PROPERTIES HOLDINGS Caesars Growth Properties Holdings LLC 9.375% 01-MAY-2022 07/28/2015 $675 99.500 99.750 (0.250) 72.750 102.500 9.48% 9.48% 824 BOYD GAMING CORPORATION Boyd Gaming Corporation 6.875% 15-MAY-2023 05/21/2015 $750 107.250 107.125 0.125 97.000 109.500 5.10% 5.55% 398 Boyd Gaming Corporation 6.375% 01-APR-2026 03/28/2016 $750 105.250 105.000 0.250 100.938 108.875 5.51% 5.65% 402 SCIENTIFIC GAMES Scientific Games International, Inc. 7.0% 01-JAN-2022 11/21/2014 $950 105.000 104.750 0.250 89.000 106.640 5.65% 5.88% 459 Scientific Games International, Inc. 10.0% 01-DEC-2022 11/21/2014 $2,200 89.250 88.000 1.250 62.250 93.000 12.54% 12.54% 1,123 Scientific Games Corporation 8.125% 15-SEP-2018 06/07/2011 $250 100.375 100.250 0.125 68.000 100.600 3.63% 7.89% 551 Scientific Games International, Inc. 6.625% 15-MAY-2021 06/04/2014 $350 73.500 73.250 0.250 42.750 76.000 14.66% 14.66% 1,356 Scientific Games International, Inc. 6.25% 01-SEP-2020 01/30/2013 $300 74.125 74.000 0.125 43.500 76.500 15.20% 15.20% 1,418 MGM GROWTH PROPERTIES LLC MGP Escrow Issuer LLC 5.625% 01-MAY-2024 04/20/2016 $1,050 106.125 106.438 (0.313) 102.500 110.250 4.63% 4.66% 314 MGM Growth Properties Operating Partnership LP 4.5% 01-SEP-2026 08/12/2016 $500 98.500 98.875 (0.375) 98.000 100.625 4.69% 4.69% 305 GAMING & LEISURE PROPERTIES GLP Capital LP 4.375% 01-NOV-2018 07/30/2014 $550 103.375 103.375 0.000 98.563 104.500 2.51% 2.72% 175 GLP Capital LP 4.875% 01-NOV-2020 07/30/2014 $1,000 106.750 105.790 0.960 94.000 107.358 3.01% 3.11% 199 GLP Capital LP 5.375% 01-NOV-2023 07/30/2014 $500 108.125 108.125 0.000 92.500 110.000 4.01% 4.05% 256 Gaming & Leisure Properties, Inc. 4.375% 15-APR-2021 04/28/2016 $400 104.750 105.000 (0.250) 101.250 106.000 3.19% 3.25% 210 GLP Capital LP 5.375% 15-APR-2026 04/28/2016 $975 107.000 106.875 0.125 102.250 109.312 4.45% 4.47% 284 ISLE OF CAPRI CASINOS Isle of Capri Casinos, Inc. 5.875% 15-MAR-2021 05/30/2013 $500 104.625 104.500 0.125 100.000 105.250 2.30% 4.72% 181 Isle of Capri Casinos, Inc. 8.875% 15-JUN-2020 11/02/2012 $350 105.750 105.000 0.750 103.562 107.750-6.27% 7.09% 7 WYNN LAS VEGAS Wynn Las Vegas LLC 5.375% 15-MAR-2022 11/06/2012 $897 102.750 102.375 0.375 91.125 104.135 4.51% 4.80% 355 Wynn Las Vegas Capital Corp. 4.25% 30-MAY-2023 05/22/2013 $500 95.750 95.500 0.250 81.750 96.625 5.00% 5.00% 357 Wynn Las Vegas Capital Corp. 5.5% 01-MAR-2025 02/18/2015 $1,800 99.500 99.250 0.250 84.000 101.625 5.57% 5.57% 401 Wynn Macau Ltd. 5.25% 15-OCT-2021 10/16/2013 $1,350 100.500 100.000 0.500 81.188 101.500 5.07% 5.14% 416 MELCO-CROWN ENTERTAINMENT Studio City Finance Ltd. 8.5% 01-DEC-2020 11/26/2012 $825 102.500 102.250 0.250 90.000 104.250 7.22% 7.78% 644 MCE Finance Ltd. 5.0% 15-FEB-2021 02/07/2013 $1,000 100.790 101.068 (0.278) 86.880 101.420 4.65% 4.80% 381 INTERNATIONAL GAME TECHNOLOGY International Game Technology Plc 6.25% 15-FEB-2022 $1,500 105.500 105.000 0.500 87.750 108.140 4.97% 5.07% 381 International Game Technology Plc 6.5% 15-FEB-2025 $1,100 106.250 106.500 (0.250) 85.500 108.812 5.51% 5.56% 399 GTECH S.p.A. 6.625% 02-FEB-2018 12/02/2010 $500 108.090 108.225 (0.135) 106.718 110.455 International Game Technology 7.5% 15-JUN-2019 06/15/2009 $500 111.000 110.500 0.500 104.750 112.750 3.26% 3.26% 239 International Game Technology 5.5% 15-JUN-2020 06/08/2010 $124 104.000 102.850 1.150 94.000 106.000 4.33% 4.33% 333 International Game Technology 5.35% 15-OCT-2023 09/19/2013 $61 100.500 102.250 (1.750) 83.000 102.500 5.26% 5.26% 382 International Game Technology Plc 5.625% 15-FEB-2020 $600 106.125 105.230 0.895 96.250 107.750 3.69% 3.69% 274 PINNACLE ENTERTAINMENT Pinnacle Entertainment 5.625% 1-MAY-2024 4/12/2016 $375 100.000 100.000 0.000 99.500 100.500 5.63% 5.63% 400 SINGLE ISSUES Churchill Downs Incorporated 5.375% 15-DEC-2021 12/17/2014 $300 104.000 104.000 0.000 99.500 104.250 4.04% 4.51% 311 Eldorado Resorts, Inc. 7.0% 01-AUG-2023 07/23/2015 $375 104.750 104.750 0.000 91.850 106.250 5.57% 5.92% 442 Station Casinos LLC 7.5% 01-MAR-2021 07/30/2013 $500 106.210 105.875 0.335 99.750 107.000 0.45% 5.89% 142 Penn National Gaming, Inc. 5.875% 01-NOV-2021 08/01/2014 $300 103.500 103.250 0.250 94.750 104.500 4.65% 5.09% 373 SugarHouse HSP Gaming LP 6.375% 01-JUN-2021 05/24/2013 $240 100.000 100.000 0.000 88.500 100.750 6.35% 6.37% 561 ROC Finance LLC 12.125% 01-SEP-2018 08/19/2011 $380 103.000 102.500 0.500 94.000 106.125 8.74% 10.38% 814 CCM Merger Inc. 9.125% 01-MAY-2019 03/26/2012 $275 105.000 105.000 0.000 101.500 106.250 3.60% 6.99% 392 Greektown Holdings LLC 8.875% 15-MAR-2019 03/14/2014 $425 105.500 105.125 0.375 96.500 105.500 4.99% 6.44% 431 Golden Nugget, Inc. 8.5% 01-DEC-2021 11/21/2013 $295 105.000 105.000 0.000 95.000 105.250 6.73% 7.32% 581 NATIVE AMERICAN ISSUERS Buffalo Thunder Development Authority 11.0% 09-DEC-2022 12/09/2014 $114 50.000 50.000 0.000 45.000 71.000 28.63% 28.63% 2,737 Seminole Hard Rock Entertainment, Inc. 5.875% 15-MAY-2021 05/14/2013 $350 100.000 0.000 0.250 98.500 102.000 5.66% 5.74% 480 Choctaw Resort Development Enterprise, Inc. 7.25% 15-NOV-2019 11/04/2004 $150 96.500 0.000 0.000 94.500 100.050 7.44% 7.44% 653 Graton Economic Development Authority (California) 9.625% 01-SEP-2019 08/22/2012 $450 107.219 107.219 107.219 107.219 107.340 6.55% 7.46% 593 Shingle Springs Tribal Gaming Authority 9.75% 01-SEP-2021 08/29/2013 $260 109.500 109.750 (0.250) 102.000 110.250 7.42% 7.42% 627 Downstream Development Authority 10.5% 01-JUL-2019 07/01/2011 $295 102.500 102.500 0.000 92.000 105.000 8.92% 9.44% 820 Inn of the Mountain Gods Resort & Casino 8.75% 30-NOV-2020 01/07/2011 $37 96.500 0.000 0.000 90.000 94.000 11.19% 11.19% 1,015 Source: Company documents, FactSet, Union Gaming Securities. 7
Important Disclosure Analyst Certification The analyst, John DeCree, primarily responsible for the preparation of this research report attests to the following: (1) that the views and opinions rendered in this research report reflect his or her personal views about the subject companies or issuers; and (2) that no part of the research analyst s compensation was, is, or will be directly related to the specific recommendations or views in this research report. Ratings Definitions Current Ratings Definition Union Gaming Securities LLC and Union Gaming Securities Asia Limited use a traditional ratings construct (Buy, Hold, and Sell) that is underscored by percentage upside/downside from current trading levels along with dividend yields for total return. We exclude special dividends and contemplate regular dividends only in our total return forecasts. These are absolute ratings, not relative or forced ratings. We define a Buy rating as a company whose shares exhibit total return (appreciation and dividends) potential of at least 15% within the next 12 months, and conversely a Sell rating as a company whose shares exhibit downside potential of at least 15% within the next 12 months. A Hold rating is reserved for companies whose shares exhibit total return potential between those parameters. Buy the total forecasted return is expected to be greater than 15% within the next 12 months Hold the total forecasted return is expected to be greater than or equal to 0% and less than or equal to 15% Sell whose shares exhibit downside potential of at least 15% within the next 12 months Suspended the company rating, target price and earnings estimates have been temporarily suspended. Valuation and Risks Ratings Distribution (as of 09/23/2016) Coverage Universe Investment Banking Services / Past 12 Months Ratings Count Pct. Rating Count Pct. BUY 13 65% BUY 3 23% HOLD 7 35% HOLD 0 0% SELL 0 0% SELL 0 0% General Disclosures Additional information is available upon request. This report was prepared by Union Gaming Securities LLC. Union Gaming Securities LLC is a FINRA member firm and wholly owned subsidiary of Union Gaming Group LLC. Union Gaming Group LLC also owns Union Gaming Securities Asia Ltd., a licensed corporation with the Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) in Hong Kong and Union Gaming Analytics, LLC. All questions or comments concerning this research report should be addressed to Union Gaming Securities LLC at (702) 866-0743. Neither Union Gaming Securities LLC("UGS") nor its affiliates, analysts or employees own any securities of companies analyzed in the research reports it distributes. Neither Union Gaming Securities LLC nor its affiliates or analysts serve as an officer, director or advisory board member of any Subject Company. UGS, its affiliates, analysts and employees may have received investment banking, non-investment banking securities and non-securities service, related compensation from the subject company in the past 12 months. It further intends to seek compensation for investment banking, non-investment banking securities and non-securities service, related activities in the next three months. Accordingly, investors should be aware that the firm and its affiliates may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of the reports it distributes. UGS is not now nor has ever been a market maker. All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local exchanges via Bloomberg and Factset. Data is sourced from Union Gaming Securities LLC, Union Gaming Securities Asia Limited, and subject companies. Union Gaming Securities LLC and Union Gaming Securities Asia Limited are not responsible for errors in prices provided by independent sources. Data, analyses, and reports necessarily contain time-sensitive information, and no subscriber or client should rely on dated reports or conclusions. Investor clients and financial advisers should consider any report from Union Gaming as only a single factor in making any investment decision. 8