ASBA SA & NT Trends Shaping the Future of Australian Education Bernard Salt 20 August 2014
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Global and Australian Trends
Australia is a good place to do business BIGGEST 1. United States 16.800 2. China 9.240 3. Japan 4.902 4. Germany 3.635 5. France 2.735 6. United Kingdom 2.522 7. Brazil 2.246 8. Russian Fed. 2.097 9.... 12. Australia 1.561 RICHEST 1. Norway 81,000 2. Australia 67,000 3. United States 53,000 4. Canada 52,000 5. Netherlands 48,000 6. Germany 45,000 7. France 41,000 8. United Kingdom 39,000 9. Japan 38,000 10. Italy 35,000 FASTEST-RISING 1. China 104% 2. Indonesia 70% 3. India 53% 4. Argentina 51% 5. Australia 48% 6. Saudi Arabia 43% 7. Brazil 36% 8. South Korea 30% 9. Russian Fed. 26% 10. Switzerland 24% $UStn GDP 2013 GDP > $US600bn $US GDP pc 2013 GDP > $US600bn 2008-2013 Source: Based on World Bank World Development Indicators data (updated July 2014); KPMG Demographics
We are an urban people with city-based jobs and interests Darwin Areas of high population growth (>2% pa) and loss (<-1% pa) between 1992 and 2013 WINNERS LOSERS Perth Adelaide Brisbane Sydney Canberra Melbourne Hobart
The Chinese and the Indians are re-shaping Australia s ethnic mix Country of Birth 2013 2008 % change United Kingdom 1,219,900 1,166,000 5% New Zealand 608,800 483,700 26% China 427,600 313,000 37% India 369,700 251,200 47% Vietnam 215,500 189,500 14% Philippines 210,800 163,000 29% Italy 199,100 211,300-6% South Africa 173,800 138,300 26% Malaysia 148,800 118,400 26% Germany 127,700 126,500 1% Top 10 ethnicities in Australia between 2008 and 2013
New acronyms for our newest tribes PUMCINS Professional Urban Middle Class In Nice Suburbs NETTELs KIPPERS Not Enough Time To Enjoy Life Kids In Parents Pockets Eroding Retirement Savings LOMBARDS Lots Of Money But A Real Dickhead Source: KPMG Demographics
Primary and junior secondary population set to surge! 2003-2013: 3.4 million (19.7m to 23.1m) 2013-2023: 4.2 million (23.1m to 27.3m) Kids & teenagers Young adults Mature adults Active Retirees = 500,000 450,000 Primary & secondary Household formation Student and school support School volunteers 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000-0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+ Net change in Australian population by 5-year age group over 10 years to 2013 and 10 years to 2023
Australians are dividing the lifecycle into thirds require skills over a longer working life 2014 Child Adolescence Adult Lifestyle Retired Old 82 Child Teen Adult Old 1974 71 1934 Child Adult Old 63 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Change in life expectancy over 80 years in Australia
From Boomers to Xers and Ys and finally to Zeds BABY BOOMERS X GENERATION Y GENERATION Z GENERATION Born 1946 1964 Born 1965 1982 Born 1983 2000 Born 2001 2019 Today 50 68 Today 32 49 Today 14 31 Today 0 13 Hierarchical Forgotten generation Special bubble-wrap Parents results-oriented Indulged their kids Wrong place wrong time Chaotic connection Youth in straitened times Depression era parents No workplace guilt Entrepreneurials Highly educated, global Sandwich generation Angsty about Ys Disappointed generation? Pragmatists fixers Source: KPMG Demographics
The school age population rises and falls and is now on the up and up 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0-20,000 1951 1954 1957 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032 2035 2038 2041 2044 2047 2050 Net annual change in the Australian population aged 5-17 between 1951 and 2050 (based on ABS 2013 projections)
There has been a fundamental shift in the Australian economy since the GFC 300,000 250,000 Health & Social Assistance 5 years May 2009 up 1.3m (9.5m 10.8m) 5 years May 2014 up 800k (10.8m 11.6m) 200,000 Professionals & Sciences 150,000 100,000 Education Mining 50,000 0-50,000-100,000 Healthcare & Social Assist. Professional/ Scientific/Tech. Education &Training Mining Other services Accom & Food Admin & Support Rental & Real Estate Construction Public Admin & Safety Retail Trade Financial & Insurance Utilities Agriculture Freight & Storage Arts & Recreation Wholesale Trade Info Media/ Telecoms Manufacturing
Australia is growing jobs in caring, selling, managing and doing Number Change 2006-2011 1 Aged or Disabled Carer 30,800 11 Teachers Aide 13,900 2 General Clerk 30,100 12 Miner 13,600 3 Child Care Worker 21,000 13 Barista 13,400 4 Electrician (General) 20,100 14 Chef 13,100 5 Checkout Operator 20,000 15 Accountant (General) 13,000 6 Accounts Clerk 17,600 16 Carpenter 11,500 7 Program or Project Administrator 16,000 17 ICT Project Manager 11,500 8 Office Manager 16,000 18 Solicitor 11,400 9 Truck Driver (General) 14,400 19 Primary School Teacher 11,400 10 Sales Assistant (General) 14,000 20 Fitter (General) 10,700 Net change in employment by occupation in Australia over 5 years to 2011
but is contracting jobs in typing, assembling, farming and filling Number Change 2006-2011 1 Secretary (General) -28,700 11 Dairy Cattle Farmer -3,000 2 Corporate Services Manager -14,400 12 Sewing Machinist -2,600 3 Product Assembler -7,800 13 Safety Inspector -2,500 4 Mixed Shelf Filler -6,400 14 Switchboard Operator -2,500 5 Crop & Livestock Farmer -6,600 15 Mixed Livestock Farmer -2,400 6 Medical Laboratory -5,500 16 Credit or Loans Officer -2,200 7 Office Cashier -4,700 17 Residential Care Officer -2,200 8 Metal Engineering Process Worker -4,500 18 Analyst Programmer -2,100 9 Real Estate Representative -3,500 19 Integration Aide -2,000 10 Vineyard Worker -3,100 20 Telecommunications Technician -1,900 Net change in employment by occupation in Australia over 5 years to 2011
Strong population growth drives demand for schools and for school teachers 2011 % change Teachers' Aide 48,200 41% Out of School Hours Care Worker 5,300 31% Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Education Worker 1,900 28% Special Needs Teacher 14,600 24% Education Adviser 8,100 21% Early Childhood (Pre-primary School) Teacher 18,300 20% Office Manager 108,200 17% Primary School Teacher 137,400 9% Vocational Education Teacher 33,800 9% School Principal 19,200 6% Secondary School Teacher 125,000 5% Net change in education-related occupations in Australia over 5 years to 2011
Local Trends
The pressure is on in South Australia and the Northern Territory in delivering education and other services 30,000 Net Interstate Migration Net Overseas Migration Natural Increase 25,000 20,000 South Australia 15,000 10,000 5,000 0-5,000-10,000 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 8,000 6,000 4,000 Northern Territory 2,000 0-2,000-4,000 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Components of population growth in South Australia and Northern Territory between 1982 and 2013
It s lifestyle, resources and commuting that drives population growth and business opportunity 10.0 Ellenbrook 9.0 Broome 8.0 7.0 6.0 Karratha Adelaide Port Augusta 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 Darwin Murray Bridge Victor Harbor Port Lincoln Mt Gambier Alice Springs Moe-Newborough Whyalla Port Pirie 0.0-1.0 Ellenbrook Broome Karratha Melton Torquay Bacchus Marsh Emerald Busselton Gladstone - Tannum Sands Perth Bunbury Geraldton Highfields Yeppoon Darwin Cessnock Townsville Mackay Warragul - Drouin Port Hedland Kalgoorlie - Boulder Melbourne Albany Warwick Rockhampton Brisbane Gold Coast - Tweed Heads Sunshine Coast Cairns Bathurst Ocean Grove - Point Lonsdale Morisset - Cooranbong Sydney Ballarat Orange Bendigo Murray Bridge St Georges Basin - Sanctuary Point Drysdale - Clifton Springs Canberra - Queanbeyan Mount Isa Toowoomba Albury - Wodonga Tamworth Gympie Gisborne - Macedon Geelong Nelson Bay - Corlette Victor Harbor - Goolwa Goulburn Hervey Bay Bowral - Mittagong Newcastle - Maitland Wollongong Mildura - Wentworth Dubbo Echuca - Moama Adelaide Coffs Harbour Wagga Wagga Maryborough Ballina Port Augusta Shepparton - Mooroopna Port Macquarie Warrnambool Forster - Tuncurry Kurri Kurri - Weston Central Coast Port Lincoln Sale Muswellbrook Bundaberg Mount Gambier Armidale Griffith Batemans Bay Lithgow Hobart Alice Springs Taree Wangaratta Horsham Bairnsdale Lismore Ulladulla Port Pirie Launceston Nowra - Bomaderry Ulverstone Colac Traralgon - Morwell Devonport Singleton Whyalla Broken Hill Camden Haven Parkes Burnie - Wynyard Moe - Newborough Percentage growth in population over 12 months to June 2013 for the 100 largest significant urban areas (SUA) in Australia
South Australia is shifting away from a manufacturing base to a services-based economy requiring specific skills Expanding South Australian occupations between 2006-2011 1. General Clerk 3,800 11. Kitchenhand 900 2. Aged or Disabled Carer 2,800 12. Barista 800 3. Checkout Operator 2,000 13. Chef 800 4. Truck Driver (General) 1,500 14. Fitter (General) 700 5. Electrician (General) 1,500 15. Miner 700 6. Accounts Clerk 1,400 16. Commercial Cleaner 700 7. Child Care Worker 1,400 17. Building Associate 600 8. Carpenter 900 18. Registered Nurse (Critical Care & Emergency 600 9. Personal Care Assistant 900 19. Cafe Worker 600 10. Sales Assistant (General) 900 20. Waiter 600 Net change in employment by occupation in South Australia over 5 years to 2011
Fewer jobs in manufacturing and agriculture in South Australia Contracting South Australian occupations between 2006-2011 1. Product Assembler -2,500 11. Product Examiner -300 2. Secretary (General) -2,000 12. Motor Mechanic (General) -300 3. Vineyard Worker -1,200 13. Plastics Factory Worker -300 4. Mixed crop & livestock Farmer -1,000 14. Chief Executive or Managing Director -300 5. Corporate Services Manager -700 15. Recycling or Rubbish Collector -300 6. Metal Engineering Process Worker -600 16. Shelf Filler -200 7. Grape Grower -500 17. Switchboard Operator -200 8. Credit or Loans Officer -500 18. Sales rep (personal & household goods) -200 9. Toolmaker -500 19. Family Day Care Worker -200 10. Fruit or Nut Grower -300 20. Winery Cellar Hand -200 Net change in employment by occupation in South Australia over 5 years to 2011
Common themes in the business world More for Less customers want you to deliver more and to pay you less Competition from left field often associated with new technology Globalisation new players discovering Australia Business and workers need to be resilient and open to change Source: KPMG Demographics
Issues impacting school business administration Rising population plus increasing demands on the tax base will translate into reduced government support Students need technical skills and soft skills like resilience Professional parents out-source education and childcare the school is a commodity how to manage expectations Possible impact of new ethnicities over time Source: KPMG Demographics
Introducing Adelaide s bachelor hotspot Vale Park 1.56:1 Trinity Gardens Glenside 1.34:1 Hotspot suburbs for single men and women aged 25-34 at the 2011 Census
Connect www.bernardsalt.com.au +61 3 9288 5047 bsalt@kpmg.com.au @bernardsalt Bernard Salt Demographer linkedin.com/in/bernardsalt @bernardsalt