The NextGen contribution to the near and mid-term safety Steve Bradford NextGen Chief Scientist Date: June 12th 2017
NextGen &Safety Focus on four areas where safety is primary focus ª ACAS X ª ASIAS ª ADS-B program (all provided service) ª Weather-in-the-cockpit (WTIC)
Airborne Collision Avoidance System X ACAS X
ACAS X Overview ACAS X is the next evolution in collision avoidance ª An interoperable expansion of a family of aircraft collision avoidance systems ª Makes use of recent advances in logic programming Provides the same general role as TCAS II: ª Surveillance of nearby aircraft ª Traffic Advisory (TA)/ Resolution Advisory (RA) Generation ª Coordination with other aircraft collision avoidance systems Supports New Capabilities: ª Leverages Additional Surveillance Sources ª Intended for multiple types of host aircraft ª Tunable for Reduced Separation Operations / NextGen Airspace ACAS X Segment 1: ª ACAS Xa (active surveillance) & Xo (operation specific) ª RTCA Standard Setting Activity US / International coordination & leadership effort Focused on the development Minimum Operational Performance Standards (MOPS)
TCAS: Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System (Internationally known as ACAS Airborne Collision Avoidance System) TCAS I issues Traffic Advisories (TAs) TCAS II issues Resolution Advisories (RAs), in addition to TAs (in the vertical plane only) ACAS X is a future replacement for TCAS II same basic capability but has an adaptable architecture Airborne Avionic System: intended as a last resort protection against risk of collision Set of system requirements defined by RTCA Minimum Operational Performance Standards (MOPS) and International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) Standards and Recommended Practices (SARPS) Designed for collision avoidance only Independent of ground-based systems and auto-pilot / NAV systems TCAS II algorithms and parameters (as far as possible) chosen to be compatible with separation standards - but: ª Does not warn of loss of separation ª Sometimes generates unnecessary (nuisance) alerts RAs coordinated between TCAS II equipped aircraft Complying with RAs can result in deviation from clearance
X A Active Surveillance X O Operation Specific X U Unmanned Aircraft System X P Passive Surveillance ACAS X Variants
TCAS Overview (TCAS II Performance Review) Performance monitoring assessment shows that TCAS works as intended but alerts during many normal, safe operations
Challenges for TCAS II in the Future
ACAS X Operational Benefit: Reduction in RAs
Safety Benefit: Reduction in Collision Risk
ACAS Xu ACAS Xu: Optimized Detect and Avoid (DAA) solution for UAS as defined by RTCA SC-147 & SC-228 in the form of Minimum Operational Performance Standards (MOPS) Sept 2020 RTCA MOPS -System Description -Performance Requirements -Testing Requirements -Installed System Performance FAA TSO -Approval for avionics -Invokes MOPS -Specifies Qualification -Specifies Markings FAA Advisory Circular -Approval for avionics installation -Describes certification process -Approval for Operational Use -Training, Maintenance, Procedures
ACAS Xu Cooperative Surveillance ACAS Xa ADS-B validated by active surveillance ACAS Xu ADS-B validated by active surveillance Non-cooperative Surveillance Does not provide protection for non-transponder equipped intruders Tracked output from primary radar, EO, IR or other sensor Threat logic Tuned for aircraft meeting TCAS performance assumptions (2,500 fpm climb/descent) Accommodates range of vehicle vertical performance Nucleus function switches between vertical and horizontal tables based on surveillance quality and vehicle performance Advisories Traffic Alerts Standard TCAS Vertical RAs Either manual or automated RA response TA or Self Separation Alert Vertical Resolution Advisories Horizontal Resolution Advisories Automatic RA response Coordination Standard TCAS coordination over 1030 MHz Supports TCAS coordination over 1030 MHz Responsive coordination over 1030 MHz Active Coordination over 1090 MHz ADS-B
Aviation Safety Information Analysis and Sharing (ASIAS)
ASIAS Overview A collaborative government and industry initiative to share and analyze data to proactively discover system safety concerns before accidents or incidents occur, leading to timely mitigation and prevention. Information shared through ASIAS enables future System Safety Assessment
ASIAS Supports FAA Strategic Goals Administrator s Strategic Initiative Make Aviation Safer and Smarter -- Risk Based Decision Making ª ASIAS supports the development of common taxonomies to be used consistently across the FAA and industry ª ASIAS provides access to aggregated safety information through interactive visualization techniques via a web-based portal ª ASIAS enables analysis of systemic safety risks across Lines of Business in a consistent and automated way Performance goals ª Reduce Commercial fatalities to < 6.2 per 100M persons on board by 2018 ª Reduce GA fatal accident rate to < 1 per 100,000 flight hours by 2018 ª Maintain rate of serious runway incursions at or below 20 per 1000 events ª Reduce risks in flight by limiting serious loss of separation rate to < 20 per 1000 losses of standard separation To date, 22 CAST Safety Enhancements have been developed based upon ASIAS analysis and dozens of safety requests have been completed for FAA LOBs supporting FAA objectives
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Safety ASIAS - Benefits ASIAS serves as a central conduit for the exchange of aviation safety information and analytical capabilities across the global aviation community ª Provides insight into emerging risks that may not have been detected through the assessment of an individual data source ª Data is shared and aggregated among ASIAS users to more clearly see precursors to accidents, increasing its potential value for analysis-based insight and providing insights that would not be available if data is not shared ª Implementation of NAS Safety Enhancements will reduce the likelihood of possible accidents Cost Avoidance The CAST, through its rigorous evaluation of possible safety enhancements, estimated the potential annual savings attributable to data sharing and analysis at $114 million due to accidents prevented through identification and mitigation of previously unknown safety issues
Example: Risks Related to RNAV Operations RNAV Departure Deviations Example RNAV departure deviation at DFW Standard Terminal Arrival (STAR) Standard Terminal Arrivals (STAR) Simplify clearance delivery Facilitate transition Deviations and documented loss of separation events at many airports with RNAV departures High priority safety issue for airlines, pilots and controllers Problem: Altitude deviations and the potential for traffic-in-proximity events STAR types Ø Ø RNAV or Conventional OPD (Optimized Profile Descent) or not OPD
RNAV Arrival/ Departure Safety Enhancements Developed: SE-212 SE-213 SE-214 RNAV Arrival and Departure Safety Enhancements are now Monitored RNAV Arrival/ Departure Directed Studies Completed by ASIAS Departure and Arrival Safety Enhancement Monitoring Metrics RNAV Departure/ Arrival Issues Reported at InfoShare
Example: Reducing Risks of Flap Misconfiguration on Departure Resulted in an FAA Safety Alert for Operators (SAFO) in November, 2014 to increase awareness of misconfiguration risks Content of this SAFO emphasizes operator training programs to raise awareness of flap misconfiguration events Three events were measured: Flap Zero at Beginning of Takeoff Roll Flap Movement During Takeoff Roll Early Flap Retraction After Liftoff
Takeoff Misconfiguration Safety Enhancements Developed Draft Departure Misconfiguration Safety Enhancements Developed: SE-227 SE-228 SE-229 Metrics under development Departure Misconfiguration Directed Study Completed by ASIAS Misconfiguratio n Departure Issues Reported by stakeholders
Automatic Dependent Surveillance Broadcast (ADS-B)
Automatic Dependent Surveillance Broadcast (ADS-B) Surface surveillance Position broadcast TIS B FIS B
ADS-B Overview ª ADS-B is an environmentally friendly technology that enhances safety and efficiency, and directly benefits pilots, controllers, airports, airlines and the public. ª ADS-B will determine aircraft position (longitude, latitude, altitude, and time) using the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS)
Air Transport Benefits Status ADS-B Out Radar Airspace (ASSC) Surface Benefits Claim ª Increased safety on the surface by controllers 10% Reduction in Runway Incursions ª More efficient ATC management of surface environment Reduced taxi delay Implementation Status ª Airport Surface Surveillance Capability (ASSC) Provides data tags to tower controllers for flights on the surface First operational use at SFO in October 2016 Benefits Status on benefits claimed in 2012 JRC to Air Transport ª Initial ASSC benefits should be measurable within a year of implementation
ADS-B In Safety Applications BPM Opportunity Claim Actual Status Comments Mid-air collision rate for equipped aircraft Weather-related accident rate for equipped aircraft CFIT accident rate for equipped aircraft Aviation accident rate for equipped aircraft in Alaska Runway incursion rate for equipped aircraft TIS-B locations FIS-B locations FIS-B locations Active Alaska Service Volumes Airports with high CDTI equipage 85% reduction 32% reduction, 63% reduction of Wx + CFIT 21% reduction CFIT w/no Wx ~20% decrease for Part 135 5% Limited GA equipage hampers early measurement 40-60% decrease for Part 135 Equipage too low to measure Likely need CONUS Air Taxi/GA ADS-B In equipage level to be >10% to be able to measure a difference Actual also impacted by weather camera, but combined decrease still less than actual Avionic standards developed but little deployment
ADS-B In Safety Applications Summary Points Decrease in accident rate between SBS equipped and non-equipped aircraft in Alaska continues to be as good as or better than projected Claim: ~20% decrease in Alaska Part 135 accident rate comparing equipped vs. non-equipped Too early to measure impact on weather-related accident rates and mid- air collisions in CONUS because of limited GA/Air Taxi equipage As pockets of equipped Ops continues to increase regional measurement may be available MIT survey work gives indication that pilots perceive usefulness of FIS-B and TIS-B in avoiding mid-air collisions and making weather-related decisions Too early to measure impact of cockpit surface safety applications because of limited equipage (Avionics standards exist, but Boeing/Airbus have yet to deploy)
Weather Technology in the Cockpit (WTIC)
WTIC Overview Portfolio of research projects to develop, verify, and validate requirements recommendations to incorporate into Minimum Weather Service (MinWxSvc) standards and guidance documents for Part 91, 135, and 121 aircraft MinWxSvc is defined as: ª Minimum cockpit meteorological (MET) information ª Minimum performance standards/characteristics of the MET information ª Minimum information rendering standards ª Enhanced MET training 29
WTIC Goals and Benefits ª Line of Sight to Implementation of GA Minimum Weather Service (MinWxSvc) Recommendations Educate pilots and other users on WTIC MinWxSvc recommendations to drive the market to implement ª NextGen Benefits to GA Demonstrate weather products and enhancements being researched to potentially uplink to GA via ADS-B at no cost ª Low latency crowd sourced visibility and wind information at uncontrolled airports and other remote areas ª Forecast and trends for wind and visibility Inform GA pilots of training information on FAASTeam website and new FAA NextGen weather products/information on NWS website 30
WTIC Training Demonstration to Pilots Weather Information Latency Demonstrator (WILD) Pilots experienced weather information latency training Weather Knowledge Test Questions Pilots assessed their weather knowledge ª Also presented results on pilot scores from taking full weather knowledge test Mobile MET Application Pilots performed experiment comparing 4 methods of rendering winds (results matched demonstration results) VFR into IMC Video Video highlighted risks and gaps that led pilot to inadvertent flight into IMC in a simulator 31