Managing And Understand The Impact Of Of The Air Air Traffic System: United Airline s Perspective NEXTOR NEXTOR Moving Moving Metrics: Metrics: A Performance-Oriented View View of of the the Aviation Aviation Infrastructure January January 30, 30, 2004 2004
Topics of Discussion Balance Between Revenue And Reliability Building Scheduled Block Time For Reliability Revenue Environment and The Effect On Reliability The O Hare Impact Summary
The Key is Balancing Reliability with Revenue
Building Block For Reliability
Development Of An Accurate Scheduled Block Time Is Critical For Maintaining An Ontime Airline Block time is the time from gate departure (brake release) to gate arrival (brake set). It is composed of: - Taxi-out time - Flight time - Taxi-in time Scheduled block times are calculated to achieve a target block ontime :00 for a season. They are based on the historical performance of a segment when data is available. Page 1
The Building Block of United s Operation Begins the long term planning process How many Pilots do we need? How many Flight Attendants do we need? Estimated Block Time Level (Used in estimating 1-2 years out) How will the banks flow? Do we have enough aircraft to maintain the schedule?
Transitions into the schedule development process 5 months or more 4 months 3 months 1 to 2 months Schedule Effective Typical schedule development timeline OA creates scheduled block times Intermediate scheduling assigns fleets Current scheduling works in division criteria Flight and Onboard crews scheduled
And drives the results of our on-time performance 90% 85% A:14 When Block is Less Than 65% A:14 When Block is 65% or Higher 90% 85% 85% 80% 79% 79% Arrival :14 Percent 75% 70% 65% 67% 60% 55% 50% When D:00 is less than 59% When D:00 is between 60-69% When D:00 is 70% or Higher
Revenue Environment And Impact On Reliability
U.S. Airline Passenger Revenues Declined 3.2% In 2003 Compared To 2002... RPMS ASMS Yield Revenue Percent Change From 2002-0.9% -2.4% -3.4% -3.2%
And Airline Passenger Revenues Expressed As A Share Of The U.S. Economy Has Materially Declined And Is Expected To Continue To Erode 0.90% Airline Passenger Revenues % Of GDP 0.80% 0.70% 0.60% 0.50% 0.40% 0.30% 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 % of GDP Trend Rate
Consumer Spending Changes and Decline in Airlines Financial Condition Have Contributed to Declines in Industry Departures Airline Industry Average Daily Departures By Year 18,075 10% reduction 17,520 17,500 16,446 16,654 16,717 16,940 16,386 16,234 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Note: Departures are from top 31 airports
The Reduction In Departures Has Helped The Airlines To Achieve Record Arrival :14 Results Airline Industry Average Daily Departures By Month 85% 84% 82% 79.9% 78.6 1995-97 1998-2000 2001 2002 2003E
Nonetheless, Industry Capacity (ASM) Growth Will Resume In 2004... 5.2% 6.4% 2003 Versus 2002-1.2% 2004 Versus 2003-3.7% Domestic International
And, Industry Departures At The Top 31 FAA Airports And United Hub Cities Will Grow In 2004-5% and 12% Respectively From 2003 Daily Departures Industry 18,500 18,000 17,500 17,000 16,500 16,000 15,500 15,000 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 4,100 4,000 3,900 3,800 3,700 3,600 3,500 3,400 3,300 3,200 3,100 3,000 Daily Departures At UA Hubs FAA Top Airports UA Hubs
Most Of The Growth Will Occur At Airports That Are Located In The Eastern Half Of The U.S., An Already Congested Area SEA Up 1% SFO Up 2% DEN Up 7% MSP Up 5% ORD Up 10% DTW Up 6% CLE Up 16% EWR, LGA & JFK Up 5% PHL Up 5% Red = 5% or Greater LAX Up 0% Yellow = Between 2% - 4% Green = 1% or Less PHX Up -3% DFW Up 7% IAH Up 12% ATL Up 8% IAD, DCA & BWI Up 2% (IAD up 77% w/ start-up of Independence Air)
Year Over Year (Jan-Apr), Domestic Departures Are Expected To Increase By 5-6% With The Largest Increase In Commuters 12.2% YOY Change in Departures 5.3% 3.2% 6.9% 0.4% Industry United Majors (9 Largest DOT Carriers) Commuters Others (Jet Blue, Frontier, etc.)
In November, We Began To Experience Congestion Related Delays At O Hare Which Impacted Our System Net Block Minutes 2.0 Block Minutes (Early)/Late 1.0 0.0-1.0-2.0-3.0 Jan'03 Feb'03 Mar'03 Apr'03 May'03 Jun'03 Jul'03 Aug'03 A Change of :02 Minutes Per Flight Between Oct and Nov Sep'03 Oct'03 Nov'03 Dec'03 Jan'04-4.0 Between These Two Months, Both D:00 And A:14 Fell By 11 Points, Resulting In 1 Million United Passengers Being Delayed
The O Hare Impact
Industry Departures At O Hare Are Expected To Set A Record Level In 2004 1,351 1,276 1,245 1,231 1,199 1,156 1,055 2004E (Adjusted) 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004E Industry Daily Departures
The Increase In Flights At O Hare Has Dramatically Effected The Number Of Arrivals Impacted By A GDP (30 (30 Day Day Moving Average September 1, 1, 2003 2003 --January 22, 22, 2004) 2004) 18% 16% Percent Of Arrivals Impacted By GDP 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Impact of O Hare On System Averages 4% 5% 10% 3% 0% 9/30/03 10/14/03 10/28/03 11/11/03 11/25/03 12/9/03 12/23/03 1/6/04 1/20/04 UA Ind XUA
As A Result, The Block Performance Of Inbound Flights To Chicago Has Diminished, Resulting In Poor On-Time Performance For Both Arrivals And Outbound Departures 70.0% Inbound ORD Block :00 65.0% 60.0% 55.0% 50.0% 45.0% 40.0% Increased delay due to LAHSO limitations November scheduled arrivals increased by 73, resulting in a further B:00 reduction Jan-03 Feb-03 Mar-03 Apr-03 May-03 Jun-03 Jul-03 Aug-03 Sep-03 Oct-03 Nov-03 Dec-03 Jan-04 Goal = 65%
A Strong Correlation Exists Between An Airports Capacity And The Scheduled Demand. The Percent Of Airport Capacity At O Hare Is Nearing 100%, Resulting In Significant ATC Delays Percent of Scheduled O Hare Flights Compared To Average Airport Capacity Rates (Based On Arrivals) 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 Jan-00 Mar-00 May-00 Jul-00 Sep-00 Nov-00 Jan-01 Mar-01 May-01 Jul-01 Sep-01 Nov-01 Jan-02 Mar-02 May-02 Jul-02 Sep-02 Nov-02 Jan-03 Mar-03 May-03 Jul-03 Sep-03 Nov-03 % of Airport Capacity Scheduled Dec. 00 = 92% (Several snow storms Resulted in A:00 at 32%) November and December Show That ORD Has Reached Near Maximum Capacity
When An Airport s Scheduled Flights Are Near The Airports Posted Maximum Arrival Rate, Significant Delays Will Occur 96% - ORD (Nov 03) 26.8 Delay Minutes / Flt. 84% - ORD (Jun 03) 8.7 Delay Minutes / Flt. 89% - ORD (Aug 01) 9.6 Delay Minutes / Flt. 42% - DEN (Jun 01) 1.6 Delay Minutes / Flt. 53% - SFO (Jun 03) 3.7 Delay Minutes / Flt. 77% - ORD (Jan 02) 8.1 Delay Minutes / Flt. 50% of Capacity (Few Arrival Delays) 75% of Capacity (Arrival Delays Build) Scheduled Flights As A Percent To Actual Airport Capacity Rates 100% of Capacity (Gridlock)
Air Traffic Delays Into O Hare Are At A High. As The Day Continues, These Delays Grow Substantially 60 November Average Air Traffic Related Delay Per O Hare Arrival (Based on Upline FC Delays, Taxi-out and Hold) 50 ATC Index (Minutes Per Flight) 40 30 20 November Average = 0:26 Minutes Per Flt 10 0 7:00 7:30 8:00 8:30 9:00 9:30 10:00 10:30 11:00 11:30 12:00 12:30 13:00 13:30 14:00 14:30 15:00 15:30 16:00 16:30 17:00 17:45 18:15 18:45 19:15 19:45 20:15 20:45 January - October Average = 0:11 Minutes Per Flt Time (:15 Minute Increments)
However, Significant Changes Have Been Made With The February/March Schedule Period 120 Dec 03 Schedule (Prior To De-Peaking) 110 Arrivals Per Hour 100 90 80 100 Rate (Optimum) March 04 Schedule (After De-Peak and Prior to Cancels) 70 60 8:00 8:30 9:00 9:30 10:00 10:30 11:00 11:30 12:00 12:30 13:00 13:30 14:00 14:30 15:00 15:30 16:00 16:30 17:00 17:30 18:00 18:30 19:00 19:30 20:00 March 04 Schedule (After De-Peak and After Cancels) Time (:15 Minute Increments)
A Small Change In The Airport Arrival Rate Of 8 Flights Per Hour Can Have A Significant Impact On Flights In The Airport Arrival Queue (O Hare Arrivals During December 03) 90 80 Flights In The Arrival Queue When The Rate Is At 92 70 60 50 40 30 20 Flights In The Arrival Queue When The Rate Is At 100 10 0 8:00 8:30 9:00 9:30 10:00 10:30 11:00 11:30 12:00 12:30 13:00 13:30 14:00 14:30 15:00 15:30 16:00 16:30 17:00 17:30 18:00 18:30 19:00 19:30 20:00 20:30 21:00 21:30 22:00 Number of Flights in Arrival Que 0:15 Minute Time Interval
In The March Schedule, Just The De-Peaking Effort Has Resulted In Dramatic Improvements (O Hare Arrivals During March 04 - Does Not Include Cancellations) 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 Flights In The Arrival Queue When The Rate Is At 92 Flights In The Arrival Queue When The Rate Is At 100 10 0 8:00 8:30 9:00 9:30 10:00 10:30 11:00 11:30 12:00 12:30 13:00 13:30 14:00 14:30 15:00 15:30 16:00 16:30 17:00 17:30 18:00 18:30 19:00 19:30 20:00 20:30 21:00 21:30 22:00 Number of Flights in Arrival Que 0:15 Minute Time Interval
To Summarize Industry Must Learn to to Operate Profitably Given New Economic and Operating Environment Reduced Passenger Demand Has Helped Airlines Build An Operationally Strong Schedule Over The Past Two Years However, Small Changes To A Hub Airport Can Easily Result In In Congestion Which Ripples Across The System The Collaborative Approach Between The FAA, United And American Regarding O Hare Operations Will Result In In Reduced Delay Minutes To Accommodate Future Air Travel Requirements, Both Airlines and Government Need To Work Collaboratively To Economically and Efficiently Expand Capacity