Impulse presentation ITB Aviation Day 2006 Prestige terminals in the provinces: Is the EU over-airported? Dr. Jürgen Ringbeck Berlin 8 March 2006 0
Key questions How is overall demand developing in Europe, and what is driving it? Has airport capacity kept pace with demand, and what developments should be expected? What airport segments have the greatest need for action? 1
European air transport is and remains a growth industry Development of European passenger transport AEA members (Mn. PAX) 245 265 277 303 279 270 268 280 CAGR + 5.9% 185 200 212 CAGR + 4.8% 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Intercontinental Shorthaul Note: Source: Intercontinental includes traffic to North Atlantic and Far East / Australasia regions Historic figures - AEA Yearbooks, forecast figures IATA passenger forecast 2004 2008, Booz Allen Hamilton Analysis 2
In particular low-cost carriers have stimulated new European travel demand Development of LCC transport in Europe (Mn. PAX p.a.) Origin of passengers in Europe (experts estimate) 80 39 49 Passengers won away from other airlines 40% 24 60% 13 17 Newly generated passengers 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Source: NFO Infratest 2002 and Booz Allen Hamilton Analysis 3
The European OAG airport network expanded mainly driven by 50 regional niche airports Development of airport network in Europe (number of airports belonging to the OAG network) 538 ~ 51 Additions and essential projects in European airport network 51 (since 1990) 487 Examples include: Doncaster/Sheffield 2 Airlines Melilla 1 Airline Floro 2 Airlines Santorini 2 Airlines Akureyri 2 Airlines Ostend/Bruges 2 Airlines Tirgu Mures 1 Airline Munich (92) Milan (98) Oslo (98) Athens (01) 4 4 Manchester (01) Stockholm (02) Leipzig (03) Zurich (04) 1990 2004 Airports newly added to OAG network Airports newly added to OAG network (includes conversions) Airport substitutions Extended airports (new runway) Reference: Source left: Source right: Number of airports in at present 40 OAG countries derived from the OAG flight plan data Regional air traffic in Europe, ETH Zurich, 2005 - adjusted by excluding Swiss airports with no network connection, and new airports without three letter IATA code. ACI Report Building for the future, April 2005; Booz Allen Hamilton Analysis 4
Today the capacity bottlenecks are already significant, especially at the major airports 100 Capacity vs. traffic volume 2003 AMS CDG Average passenger volume vs. estimated capacity limit (Mn. PAX p.a.) Capacity (Million PAX p.a.) 80 60 40 BRU OSL VIE CGN HAJ CPH ARN MAN DUS MAD FCO MUC ORY LGW FRA LHR 27 Estimated capacity limit peak times 35 45 Estimated capacity limit peak times 20 Estimated capacity limit peak times (assumption 2:1) 15 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 Passenger volume (Mn. PAX p.a.) = Major airport (> 25 Mn. PAX) = Other international airports (< 25 Mn. PAX) Source: Booz Allen Hamilton Benchmarking study, ATI 5 Ø 11 other international airports (< 25 Mn. PAX) Ø LGW, LHR, FRA, CDG, MAD
Given a positive growth scenario of 4.3% per year a capacity gap of 17% emerges Influence of limited airport capacity on the number of flights in Europe 20.000 18.000 Long-term capacity gap around 17% Comments Doubling of European air traffic by 2025 flights p.a.(thousand) 16.000 14.000 12.000 10.000 Bottlenecks in particular at mega-hubs like Frankfurt und London Regional airports relieve hubs if part of the same regional cluster (e.g. London airports) 8.000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 = Airport capacity demand growth scenario A Reference: Definition of growth scenarios according to EUROCONTROL scenario A: globalization and strong economic growth ; Source: EUROCONTROL Long-Term Forecasts of Flights (2004-2025) 6
Even at the smaller airports a significant capacity gap will emerge over the long term 250 2025 forecast capacity need and gap by European airport segments (# movements per hour) 200 150 45% Significant capacity gap at large airports Capacity gap 2025 Available capacity 2025 100 32% 50 0 55% 68% 23% 77% 76% 24% 85% 80-120 60-79 40-59 20-39 0-19 airports segmented by capacity level ( # movements per hour) 1) 15% 1) Peak time capacity Source: EUROCONTROL Challenges to Growth 2004 Report 7
In Germany, at least, building new airports is not the solution Example: airports in Germany and their catchment area within a 50km radius Accessibility of the nearest airport (% of the total population) Kiel Lübeck Barth Rostock Heringsdorf 92% Hamburg Schwerin Neubrandenburg Mönchengladbach Niederrhein- Weeze 5% of the population potentially underserved Maastricht- Aachen Bremen Stendal Berlin-Tegel Berlin-Tempelhof Münster/ Berlin-Schönefeld Hannover Osnabrück Braunschweig Magdeburg Paderborn/ Cottbus Dortmund Lippstadt Cochstedt Dessau Leipzig/Halle Düsseldorf Dresden Köln/Bonn Kassel Siegerland Erfurt Altenburg Frankfurt- Hahn Frankfurt Main Egelsbach Bayreuth Mannheim Nürnberg Saarbrücken Zweibrücken Karlsruhe/ Baden-Baden Hof Plauen 64% 5% Stuttgart Augsburg < 60 min < 90 min > 90 min Lahr Friedrichshafen München Salzburg travel time to the nearest airport Source left: Lufthansa Politikbrief August 2004 Source right: Masterplan zur Erschließung der Flughafeninfrastruktur Berlin 2004 8
Obviously larger airports have structural advantages (indicated by a sample of 15 leading European airports) Fees/PAX and PAX 2004 EBITDA/PAX ( ) 3 80 Fees/PAX ( ) 2,5 2 1,5 1 70 60 50 40 30 PAX (Mn.) 7,9 6,4 24% Gap 20 0,5 0 Heathrow Rhein-Main Charles de Gaulles = major airport (> 25 Mn. PAX) Schiphol Gatwick Fiumicino Munich Copenhagen = Other international airports (< 25 Mn. PAX) Malpensa Zurich Dublin Dusseldorf Oslo International Berlin Vienna 10 0 = PAX Ø 6 major airports (> 25 Mn. PAX) Ø 9 other international airports (< 25 Mn. PAX) Source: Booz Allen Hamilton Benchmarking study, ATI 9
Is the EU over-airported Key questions for the panel Major airports What should the rules of the game for further airport development be? Regional airports What mistakes have been made? What are the root-causes? What are the potential solutions? 10