University of Novi Sad Faculty of Sciences Department of Physics 21000 Novi Sad, Trg D. Obradovića 4 SERBIA TEL/FAX: +381(0)21 455 318 The Second General Project Meeting ADAGIO Report for the first project year Serbian Crew corresponding by D.T. Mihailovic
Issues 1) Establishing working groups and corresponding network (WP1) 2) Identification of most vulnerable regional issues through climate change (WP2) *) Questionnaire-creation and formal analysis *) Some preliminary results 3) Meeting activities (WP2) 4) Dissemination of the results (WP2...) 5) Looking forward on the second project year (WP3...)
WP1 Establishing the working groups and corresponding network Fruit Crop and fruit Yellow NETWORK Fruit and partly vegetable Blue and yellow QUESTIONARIE AREA
Arilje region
Apple orchard - ARILJE Location: Bogojevci village Raspberry field - ARILJE Location: Stupcevici Village Apple orchard - ARILJE Location: Divjaka Village Blueberry field - ARILJE Location: Latvica Village
Novi Sad region
Wheat and sunflower fields (private properties) in the vicinity of the Fruska Gora mountain area (Novi Sad) - cooperation with Agriculture Advisory Service of Novi Sad
Slankamen region
Apple orchard - SLANKAMEN Property: Family Djukanovic
Subotica region
Apple orchard (private property) - left and wheat field (private property) - right in the vicinity of the Subotica - cooperation with the private company Agropests-YU, Subotica
Partner 4: Serbian Crew WP2 Identification of most vulnerable regional issues through climate change Description of work 1) Questionary for establishing the state in selected regions about negative effects of climate change and climate variability on pests and diseases occurrence 2007 (a) Definition of the working version of the questionary 15 April (b) Testing the questionary 15 Jun (c) Defining the target group (plan is 142 experts from 13 extension services in Vojvodina. However we will be satisfied with 50 that can be used for the further procedure) 20 Jun (d) Delivering questionaries and receiving answers from (in Serbia and other countries involved in the project) after 15 Jun (e) Preliminary statistical analysis of data and comments from questionaries 1 December Vienna, 14-16 February 2007, Project Meeting?????
WP2 Identification of most vulnerable regional issues through climate change *) Questionnaire-creation and formal analysis The main points I will touch: 1) Work on the questionnaires using corresponding methodology (questionnaires for gathering data about attitude of experts and farmers) a) Job that is done b) Obstacles
1) Work on the questionnaires using corresponding methodology (questionnaires for gathering data about attitude of experts and farmers) a) Job that is done *) Rough draft of the questionnaires (four meetings) that that included whole group (meteorologists,plant protection, agronomy and fruit production, rural sociology experts) *) Final polishing the questionnaires for #) plant protection experts #) fruit production experts #) agronomy experts and farmers *) Sending questionnaires on 921 addresses (experts and farmers) by regular mail that then returned to us FP6 ADAGIO Regional Meeting, Sofia, 13-14 September 2007
1) Work on the questionnaires using corresponding methodology (questionnaires for gathering data about attitude of experts and farmers) a) Job that is done Number of respodents Number of respodents Number of questions Number of questions Kind Experts Farmers Experts Farmers Agronomy 21/175 48/345 24 42 Plant protection 38/150 79/100 43 49 Fuit production 14/50 68/101 17 27 Total 73/375 (19.4%) 195/546 (36%) Simple statistics from the questionnaire features and number of respondents for Vojvodina Province and Arilje region FP6 ADAGIO Regional Meeting, Sofia, 13-14 September 2007
1) Work on the questionnaires using corresponding methodology (questionnaires for gathering data about attitude of experts and farmers) b) Obstacles a) Unfortunately, as usual in the application of the sending questionnaires mailed by regular mail, relatively small numbers respondents given answers on questions from the questionnaires b) The first research of this kind in our country Analysis of answers from the questionnaires in some segments will have slightly limited specific weight in the sense of scientific conclusion. Preliminary results which will be supplied with the results of further research FP6 ADAGIO Regional Meeting, Sofia, 13-14 September 2007
WP2 Identification of most vulnerable regional issues through climate change *) Some preliminary results 1) Work on the questionnaires using corresponding methodology (questionnaires for gathering data about attitude of experts and farmers) Plant protection experts - including 38 respondents 1) Powdery mildew of cereals (Erisiphe graminis) (T_08) 2) Fusarium head blight (T_11) 3) Cercospora leaf spot (Cercospora beticola) (T_17) 4) Sunflower blight (Plasmopara halstedii) (T_27) 5) Potatao and tomato Alternaria spot leaf deseases (T_39) (A. solani) FP6 ADAGIO Regional Meeting, Sofia, 13-14 September 2007
Novi Sad
Cereals Whether you observed during last years higher intesity of Powdery mildew occurrence of cereals (Erisiphe graminis)? Others 28,9% Yes 71.1% Dry and warm springs and dry sumers with temoprary showers FP6 ADAGIO Regional Meeting, Sofia, 13-14 September 2007
Cereals Whether you observed during last years higher intesity of occurrence of Fusarium head blight? Other 23,7% Yes 76,3% Dry and warm springs and dry sumers with temoprary showers (stress conditions) FP6 ADAGIO Regional Meeting, Sofia, 13-14 September 2007
Sugar beet Whether you observed during last years higher intesity of occurrence of Cercospora leaf spot (Cercospora beticola)? Same (26,3%) and others (31,7%) Yes, higher 42% Indicates on increasing the night temperatures over 15 C during the summer FP6 ADAGIO Regional Meeting, Sofia, 13-14 September 2007
Sunflower Whether you observed during last years occurrence of small malformated dwarf sunflower with a dense white cover Sunflower blight (Plasmopara halstedii)? Yes 23,7% and others 34,2% No 42,1% Negative answers indicate a friquent occurrence of very dry and warm springs providing no conditions for development of Sunflower blight FP6 ADAGIO Regional Meeting, Sofia, 13-14 September 2007
Vegetables Whether you observed in the last years occurrence of Potatao and tomato spot leaf deseases? No 7,9% Others 47,4% Yes 44,7% Positive answers indicate on fequent occurence dry and hot summers providing conditions for development А. solani FP6 ADAGIO Regional Meeting, Sofia, 13-14 September 2007
Vegetables Whether you observed occurrence of spots on the other parts of potato and tomato plants? No answer 42,1% Yes 57,9% It si tipical for Alernaria leaf spot that, except the leaf, also attacing the other parts of plant (stalk and fruits) during hot summers FP6 ADAGIO Regional Meeting, Sofia, 13-14 September 2007
More intensive occurrence of some pathogens influenced by potential climate change Fruit trees Bitter spots on apple and sour cherry fruits Powder mildew of apple and peach Dry and warm springs and dry sumers with temoprary showers Alternaria leaf spot on apple
Physiological changes influenced by potential climate change Spots of damages influenced by high solar radiation Damages of high temperatures
In the last year there is a frequent occurrence of Barley yellow dwarf virus on barley and wheat in the Novi Sad region Aphids on wheat and barley already plants were observed in December and January Yeald reduction up to 2,00 do 2,50 t/ha in the Novi Sad region Aphids start to be active when auttmn is warm and when the temperatures in winter are higher than usual
Arilje is a region with the highest production of potato, apple, blackberry, raspberry,blueberry, and strawberries) In the last years is observed frequent occurrence of Powdery mildew and Fusarium diseases Damages of seed potato FP6 ADAGIO Regional Meeting, Sofia, 13-14 September 2007
WP2 Meeting activities 1) The First General Project Meeting, Vienna, AUSTRIA 13-16 February 2007 2) The First National Project Meeting, Novi Sad, SERBIA 5 September 2007 3) The First Regional Project Meeting, Sofia, BULGARIA 13-14 September 2007
2) The First National Project Meeting, Novi Sad, SERBIA 5 September 2007 Први национални FP6 ADAGIO скуп о очекиваним променама климе у Војводини и њиховим могућим ефектима, Нови Сад, 5. cептембар 2007.
POZIVNICA Pozivamo Vas da prisustvujete skupu Klimatske promene i poljoprivredna proizvodnja u Srbiji: Prvi nacionalni skup o očekivanim promenama klime u Vojvodini i njihovim mogućim efektima
Универзитет у Новом Саду Природно-математички факултет 21000 Нови Сад, Трг Доситеја Обрадовића 4 Србија тел/факс: +381(0)21 455 318 Први национални скуп о очекиваним променама климе у Војводини и њиховим могућим ефектима Климатске промене, осетљивост и адаптационе мере у пољопривреди: Ситуација у Србији Драгутин Т. Михаиловић Пољопривредни факултет, Нови Сад
University of Novi Sad Faculty Sciences 21000 Novi Sad, D. Obradovica Sq. 4 Serbia phone/fax: +381(0)21 455 318 e mail guto@uns.ns.ac.yu Serbian national report on the ADAGIO project implementation: Results and obstacles Dragutin T.Mihailovic FP6 ADAGIO Regional Meeting, Sofia, 13-14 September 2007
(WP2 ) Dissemination of results 1) Web activities 2) Newspapers 3) TV activities 4) National meetings
(WP2 ) Web activities Adagio-Serbia web site: http://adagio-serbia.if.ns.ac.yu
(WP2 ) Newspapers
(WP2 ) TV activities RTV Panonija
RTV Vojvodina Jutarnji program
RTV Vojvodina Reč više
National Meeting for Plant protection Универзитет у Новом Саду Природно-математички факултет 21000 Нови Сад, Трг Доситеја Обрадовића 4 Србија тел/факс: +381(0)21 455 318 ADAGIO пројекат: Климатске промене, осетљивост и адаптационе мере у пољопривреди у Србији: Кратак опис Драгутин Т. Михаиловић Пољопривредни факултет, Нови Сад, СРБИЈА Visiting Professor at The New York State University, Albany, U.S.A XIII Симпозијум са саветовањем о заштити биља са међународним учешћем, Партизанске воде, 26-30. новембар 2007
(WP3 ) Looking forward on the second project year a) Running the global model b) running the regional model 30x30 km with intention to do that with 8x8 km c) crop model d) link with the first year of the project
ECHAM global integration REGIONAL non-hydrostatic model Meeting with the project scientific officer Dr. Armand Beuf, Novi Sad, 7 February 2007
a) ECHAM model (boundary conditions) b) A1B scenario b) 1961-1990 is compared with 2071-2100 c) NCEP non-hydrostatic model + POM (Princeton Ocean Model) 35 km x 35 km d) SINTA (Italian-Serbian project) (prof. B. Rajkovic, B. Djurdjevic Belgrade University)
TREE OF OUR INTENTION 1 ECHAM model 2 Regional NCEP non-hydrostatic model 30x30 km - 8x8 km 3 Crop model